W
Wes Mitchell
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Some final thoughts on Saturday's SEC East matchup with Georgia...
** The most intriguing note I took from Will Muschamp's call-in show on Thursday was how highly he spoke of Notre Dame and the job that the Irish did in hanging around with Georgia in that game, a 23-17 UGA win in Athens. Obviously, film review of all of an opponent's games is a big part of preparation, but I got the impression that the Notre Dame film was one the Gamecocks took an especially hard look at.
What did Notre Dame do to stay in that game? Looking at the box score, it's actually hard to see how they even stayed as close as they did. Quarterback Ian Book was solid but not outstanding and threw two picks. The running game didn't really do enough to keep UGA honest (14 carries for 46 yards) and ND was just 4-13 on third down and 1-3 on fourth down. The ND offense was able to do just enough to stay in that game, but what was more interesting was what the ND defense was able to do in at least slowing UGA's offense.
Defensive coordinator Travaris Robinson said last week that the key to slowing Georgia's offense is to create negative plays in order to get them off schedule from their usual down and distances. This is a team that prides itself in getting in third and shorts and then converting them (3rd in the SEC in 3rd down conversions). With a massive, talented offensive front, UGA just simply doesn't give up many negative plays, allowing an SEC best 15.0 tackles-for-loss this year.
What's interesting about that is that six of those 15 TFLs happened in the Notre Dame game alone and the Irish were able to get off the field on third downs, holding UGA to 4-11 and forcing three field goals. We talk often about how red zone offense and defense can be the difference in a game and it will be especially important this week considering that UGA is one of the teams that will still shorten the game and play for time of possession, meaning each possession ends up being more important.
Notre Dame did a good job of tackling, and rallying multiple defenders to the ball in order to keep UGA from getting explosive plays from their backs. The longest run of the day was 16 yards and if you're South Carolina you'll take that right now. UGA is going to put its speed in space with the outside run and the short passing game and the single biggest key for the Carolina defense will be tackling in space.
On several third downs, Notre Dame used Cover 0 (no safety deep, six pass-rushers)/all-out blitzed with man coverage to try and force the Georgia receivers to prove they can win 1-on-1 battles.
** On the offensive side of the ball, as much as South Carolina will need to establish some semblance of the running game, this doesn't feel like a game that they'll be able to just line up and pound it like against Kentucky. This is going to be one of Bryan McClendon's biggest tests of the season as, unless they surprise me and are just able to run the ball at will, he'll have to be stubborn enough to stick to the running game just enough to keep the defense honest without relying on it too much and playing directly into UGA's strength. With the bye week to prepare for this one, I think you have to hope the offensive staff has come up with several wrinkles offensively and that they can throw a diverse rushing attack at UGA.
Much of this game will probably end up on the shoulders of freshman quarterback Ryan Hilinski. While Ian Book wasn't perfect in that game, he was able to hit a bunch of underneath throws on their defense to stay on the field and then his receivers and tight ends made a few plays on intermediate throws too.
There were lot of variables that went into Hilinski's performance against Missouri (arm soreness, lack of practice reps, first road start), but if he can settle in on the road like he has at home, then there's at least a chance that he and his ultraquick release can give the offense a chance to stay on the field. Bryan Edwards and Shi Smith will need to go make plays on 1-on-1 balls for their young quarterback. This also could be a game that the tight ends are highly involved as Notre Dame's tight end had a career day against this defense.
A few more random thoughts...
* How much of the 4-3 will we see from South Carolina and how will Georgia respond to that? All indications are that it's here to stay and that the staff will continue to use it against three-receiver sets (as well as against two-receiver sets as they always have). Will Georgia try to attack it down the field? Will Georgia try to run Carolina's linebackers from sideline to sideline? Will the 4-3, with that extra linebacker, provide an edge in slowing UGA's running game?
* I received word that matched what Will Muschamp said, that Dakereon Joyner has been full go in practice and has looked good. He's been forgotten a bit with the injury, but could the Gamecocks have something special for him this week?
* Is there a special teams edge to be had for South Carolina? Obviously, UGA's Rodrigo Blankenship is nearly automatic in the kicking game, but as Heath Cline brought up on 107.5 The Game Friday, there have been some shaky moments from the punting game and Carolina has arguable the best punter in the league, so there could be hidden yardage to be gained there. In he other categories, UGA has been bad in kickoff returns, outstanding in kickoff coverage, and average in punt coverage and punt coverage.
FINAL PREDICTION: Coming off the bye week, I expect South Carolina to have a good game plan for Georgia and there are enough weapons to at least stay in the game. The Gamecocks may have the best defensive line that UGA has faced this year and it should be an intriguing litmus test for the Carolina front seven in revealing just how much they have improved. But Georgia may be the most complete team in the country and it's just hard for me to predict a Carolina win as a 25-point underdog. Georgia wins 34-21
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