Making the NIT? More Difficult than Fans Are Assuming

[ipull4usc]

I'm not giving up on making the NCAA Tourney but at this point it's going to require an unbelievable turnaround (likely 11-3 to end the season, and we have 2 games vs Kentucky).

I have seen quite a few people say they are tempering their expectations after the Auburn loss, and they will be happy with an NIT appearance. The assumption appears to be that this team will make the NIT at minimum. Unfortunately I believe making the NIT is much more difficult than casual fans are assuming.

In the past 5 years the NIT has not taken an SEC team with less than 18 wins. Thus, at the bare minimum, USC has to win 8 more games in the regular season and SEC Tourney, as we are currently 10-6. The days of going .500 and making the NIT are over. And 18 wins very well may not get us into the NIT, we'd likely have to have near 20 to be comfortably in the field. I'm not saying the Cocks can't get the requisite number of wins for the NIT, but I believe it's going to take significant improvement to get there. If this team continues to perform as it is now, I do not believe it would get enough wins to make the NIT.

 

[vacock#]

Dropped to Massey 65 rating, 16-14 and 7-11 SEC

The 55 previous ranking estimated that we should have beaten Auburn. Predicts 16-14 overall and 7-11 in the SEC and now a Massey ranking of 65.

Keep winning!

BTW, we may not get into the NIT post-season, as you said. Here's the Massey estimate of winning:

W home Tennessee 71%
L home Kentucky 14%
L at LSU 38%
W home Georgia 56%
L at Arkansas 28%
L at Vanderbilt 42%
W home Missouri 87%
L at Kentucky 5%
L at Georgia 26%
W home TA&M 72%
L at Bama 35%
W home Miss St 92%
W home Ark 56%
L at Tenn 43%


http://masseyratings.com/team.php?t=7242&s=267615

 

[ReadR00ster]

So we just miss making it in the NIT, and all our remaining losses are by 1 point, than are we not supposed to be appreciate the fact that this team has improved? What is the point of this discussion?

This post was edited on 1/19 5:47 PM by ReadR00ster

 

[1vagamecock]

We can appreciate the improvement but don't expect folks to show up till they start winning.

 

[ReadR00ster]

Originally posted by 1vagamecock:
We can appreciate the improvement but don't expect folks to show up till they start winning.

Don't expect them to show up just because we make the NIT either. That is not the important thing. The important thing getting better because you have to get better before you can win more.

 

[ToddFlanders]

There's always the CIT and CBI if the NIT doesn't work out. They aren't nearly as glamorous, but it gives an opportunity for post season play/experience for teams that are on the cusp. It generally helps for the next season.

I think the reason the NIT is so hard to get into these days is that there are guaranteed spots to regular season conference champs from 1-bid conferences that don't win their tourney to get into the NCAA's.

 

[Rollerdude123]

the NIT?


We better worry about even being in the discussion for the NIT.


This team, right now, isn't headed for the NIT. Losing to Auburn was a big. No excuse to lose to them.