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Mens basketball this year....

cockymark

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Oct 1, 2006
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What do we have?? this team is so hard to figure out! we could be a ncaa tournament team or lose first round of nit.....thoughts?
 
Gotta make it in to one of them first. If we hadn't crapped the bed a few times early on I'd feel a lot better about that.
 
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What do we have?? this team is so hard to figure out! we could be a ncaa tournament team or lose first round of nit.....thoughts?

Why do you think we should be in any post season tournament? We just beat a team we were supposed to beat. It looks like we are getting better. That’s good. Beat allbarn!
 
What do we have?? this team is so hard to figure out! we could be a ncaa tournament team or lose first round of nit.....thoughts?
Having a bad out of conference record followed by a run in conference is not weird for a Frank Martin team. Aside from the FF season, the pattern is a late season swoon and missing postseason play.
 
If we go somehow 12-6 in the SEC. That is still only 20-11 overall.
Bubble team most likely... although.. the SEC is better than normal this season. It might be enough even without a tournament win. It would take a couple more wins over highly ranked teams to offset some of the terrible losses we have to get us in the tourney.
 
If we go somehow 12-6 in the SEC. That is still only 20-11 overall.
That would definitely get us in the Dance to finish that strong in a fairly strong conference.

The Stetson loss is the biggest enigma of the season. Take away that game and we're in decent shape at this point. Coach Martin lost his cool a little too much that day in my opinion. We played very poorly but you can't lose a game with the best players on the bench like that.
 
It starts with a win against Auburn on the road. That would be a huge win and continued momentum builder.
 
Bubble team most likely... although.. the SEC is better than normal this season. It might be enough even without a tournament win. It would take a couple more wins over highly ranked teams to offset some of the terrible losses we have to get us in the tourney.

The problem is, like last year, they need wins against the top 50 teams like Auburn, LSU and Arkansas, but can’t be dropping games against teams like Vandy and Ole Miss either.
 
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What do we have?? this team is so hard to figure out! we could be a ncaa tournament team or lose first round of nit.....thoughts?

Look at the youth. Frank never makes that point an excuse. Young teams win some they shouldn’t and lose some they shouldn’t.
 
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The problem is, like last year, they need wins against the top 50 teams like Auburn, LSU and Arkansas, but can’t be dropping games against teams like Vandy and Ole Miss either.
And that’s the problem. This team has proven that they are not consistent. If they can stay focused on play to their potential every game, they have a shot. But I’ll believe it when I see it (if the past is an indicator)...
 
I wouldn't get too excited about postseason possibilities just yet. This team has yet to show a true identity to get an idea what team shows up. But I believe there is still a pathway to make it to either tournament with our schedule. As of today our net ranking is 98, we need around a 75-80 net for the NIT consideration and 60 or lower for the NCAA tournament consideration. What we need to do, is to win and win often. First and foremost we can't afford no more bad losses, so we need to beat likes of Ole Miss, Vandy (twice) and A&M, preferably by at least a 10 point margin to maximize our net rankings. Then the rest of the conference net rankings are around 75 or better so try to maximize our wins. I think if we go .500 among the teams that are ranked 75 and lower we are NIT bound at worst(11-7 SEC record), but if we're 2 games over .500 with those teams (13-5 SEC record) we have a chance at the being on the bubble at worst. Also as a side note I think a strong showing in the SEC/Big 12 will indirectly improve our stock as well.
 
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What do we have?? this team is so hard to figure out! we could be a ncaa tournament team or lose first round of nit.....thoughts?
What I see right now is a team that has found some rhythm. Couisnard has been the catalyst. I want to see us against a team with great guards that play defense. Although, what we showed yesterday is that if you play Couisnard tough Bolden and Lawson can hurt you.

Unfortunately, our margin for error to make the tournament is very small. We don't have to beat Auburn, but we are at 98 in the NET (moved up from 112) and they are 20. It sure would help.
 
What I see right now is a team that has found some rhythm. Couisnard has been the catalyst. I want to see us against a team with great guards that play defense. Although, what we showed yesterday is that if you play Couisnard tough Bolden and Lawson can hurt you.

Unfortunately, our margin for error to make the tournament is very small. We don't have to beat Auburn, but we are at 98 in the NET (moved up from 112) and they are 20. It sure would help.

We have to beat Auburn to get a NET that qualifies us as an at-large team (better than 30). Auburn is the only team we have remaining that has a NET better than 30. I like to use Massey ratings:

https://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=7242&s=309912
 
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I wouldn't get too excited about postseason possibilities just yet. This team has yet to show a true identity to get an idea what team shows up. But I believe there is still a pathway to make it to either tournament with our schedule. As of today our net ranking is 98, we need around a 75-80 net for the NIT consideration and 60 or lower for the NCAA tournament consideration. What we need to do, is to win and win often. First and foremost we can't afford no more bad losses, so we need to beat likes of Ole Miss, Vandy (twice) and A&M, preferably by at least a 10 point margin to maximize our net rankings. Then the rest of the conference net rankings are around 75 or better so try to maximize our wins. I think if we go .500 among the teams that are ranked 75 and lower we are NIT bound at worst(11-7 SEC record), but if we're 2 games over .500 with those teams (13-5 SEC record) we have a chance at the being on the bubble at worst. Also as a side note I think a strong showing in the SEC/Big 12 will indirectly improve our stock as well.
Good points. But the only tournament that matters is the Dance.
 
We have to beat Auburn to get a NET that qualifies us as an at-large team (better than 30). Auburn is the only team we have remaining that has a NET better than 30. I like to use Massey ratings:

https://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=7242&s=309912

If you would like to see something sobering, look at the ratings of the recruits Auburn is getting compared to the Gamecocks. If talent matters, we start the game behind the 8 ball.
 
If you would like to see something sobering, look at the ratings of the recruits Auburn is getting compared to the Gamecocks. If talent matters, we start the game behind the 8 ball.
I am not at all saying that our guys are not talented; we are very talented. But please, Coach Frank Martin, double up on your recruiting!
 
We weren't favored. Texas AM was favored?

Texas A&M had a worse rating than we did. Someone posted that we only needed to win 22 games or so but to lose to another poorly ranked team won’t better our ranking. Yes, we were not favored because we have a terrible rating. We don’t want to keep a terrible rating so we better beat poorly ranked teams that pull us down but also need to beat much higher ranked teams like Auburn to pull us up.
 
Texas A&M had a worse rating than we did. Someone posted that we only needed to win 22 games or so but to lose to another poorly ranked team won’t better our ranking. Yes, we were not favored because we have a terrible rating. We don’t want to keep a terrible rating so we better beat poorly ranked teams that pull us down but also need to beat much higher ranked teams like Auburn to pull us up.
Does beating a team with a worse NET on the road help? If not, it seems like the NET is a little too mechanical. You have to take into account road wins in conference play.
 
What do we have?? this team is so hard to figure out! we could be a ncaa tournament team or lose first round of nit.....thoughts?
I think it a little too early to tell. The season has been a roller coaster ride todate.

They've definitely shown signs of potentially being an NCAA tournament team.

They play reasonably good defense, but the offense is a spotty.

When the offense is on though they are phenomenal, however, if the offense isntt well.. the roller coaster ride continues.

We may know if they are an NCAA or NIT Tournament team sooner, but I think we'll definitely know by the rematch with Texas A&M next month.
 
Does beating a team with a worse NET on the road help? If not, it seems like the NET is a little too mechanical. You have to take into account road wins in conference play.

Yes, road wins are weighted higher than home wins. So, every road win helps. However, A&M’s Net is so bad right now that it’s only going to be a quad three win. In other words, it’s not much different than beating a school like Dartmouth on the road as far as Net is concerned. What Net does is eliminate one of those old coach speak nonsense points of “going on the road in conference” or “any conference win is a good win.” Nope. A&M is playing terrible right now and you don’t get bonus points for beating bad teams just because they happen to be in your conference.

The worst thing you can do under the Net rating system is lose to bad teams at home. The best thing you can do is beat highly ranked teams on the road. Pretty much the only way the math is going to work out at this point requires wins against Auburn, Arkansas, Georgia, and Alabama on the road. Need Virginia and Clemson to stay in the top 75 of Net. And need Kentucky to stay in the top 30. And can’t lose to any of the bad teams at home. Realistically, this team can really only afford two more losses, three at the most, and they need to be the right losses.
 
Yes, road wins are weighted higher than home wins. So, every road win helps. However, A&M’s Net is so bad right now that it’s only going to be a quad three win. In other words, it’s not much different than beating a school like Dartmouth on the road as far as Net is concerned. What Net does is eliminate one of those old coach speak nonsense points of “going on the road in conference” or “any conference win is a good win.” Nope. A&M is playing terrible right now and you don’t get bonus points for beating bad teams just because they happen to be in your conference.

The worst thing you can do under the Net rating system is lose to bad teams at home. The best thing you can do is beat highly ranked teams on the road. Pretty much the only way the math is going to work out at this point requires wins against Auburn, Arkansas, Georgia, and Alabama on the road. Need Virginia and Clemson to stay in the top 75 of Net. And need Kentucky to stay in the top 30. And can’t lose to any of the bad teams at home. Realistically, this team can really only afford two more losses, three at the most, and they need to be the right losses.

Thanks. That helps.

I think we will make the NIT but I doubt we make the NCAA. Probably 18 or 19 wins tops.
 
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Yes, road wins are weighted higher than home wins. So, every road win helps. However, A&M’s Net is so bad right now that it’s only going to be a quad three win. In other words, it’s not much different than beating a school like Dartmouth on the road as far as Net is concerned. What Net does is eliminate one of those old coach speak nonsense points of “going on the road in conference” or “any conference win is a good win.” Nope. A&M is playing terrible right now and you don’t get bonus points for beating bad teams just because they happen to be in your conference.

The worst thing you can do under the Net rating system is lose to bad teams at home. The best thing you can do is beat highly ranked teams on the road. Pretty much the only way the math is going to work out at this point requires wins against Auburn, Arkansas, Georgia, and Alabama on the road. Need Virginia and Clemson to stay in the top 75 of Net. And need Kentucky to stay in the top 30. And can’t lose to any of the bad teams at home. Realistically, this team can really only afford two more losses, three at the most, and they need to be the right losses.
One followup. Is an invitation to the tournament, aside from conference champions, based strictly on NET ranking? IOW, can a team with a NET ranking higher than 60 get into the tournament without winning a conference?
 
The chance of beating Auburn is slim to none considering they lost two in a row. I haven't seen them yet, but if they really are a top 10 team, they won't lose 3 in a row. I wouldn't be shocked if we lose this game by 10+. Pearl will have them playing their best game of the season.
 
The chance of beating Auburn is slim to none considering they lost two in a row. I haven't seen them yet, but if they really are a top 10 team, they won't lose 3 in a row. I wouldn't be shocked if we lose this game by 10+. Pearl will have them playing their best game of the season.
They could be a Top 10 team, but just in looking at their schedule todate, im not seeing any top 10 team wins.

Frank and the boyz have 2 top 10 wins.

Auburn has also lost to Alabama and Florida.

This Carolina team seems to play very well on the road, let's see if they can continue that streak.

Go Gamecocks!
3 Fingers Up!
 
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The chance of beating Auburn is slim to none considering they lost two in a row. I haven't seen them yet, but if they really are a top 10 team, they won't lose 3 in a row. I wouldn't be shocked if we lose this game by 10+. Pearl will have them playing their best game of the season.
Yep, it is going to be a tough game. But it is going to be equally tough for Auburn.

Keys will be:

get Auburn in foul trouble
ability to hit from the outside
rebounding
turnovers
bench play
 
One followup. Is an invitation to the tournament, aside from conference champions, based strictly on NET ranking? IOW, can a team with a NET ranking higher than 60 get into the tournament without winning a conference?

Net is the primary tool the committee is supposed to use when setting the tournament field, but the field doesn’t correlate 1:1 based on Net rankings. They give themselves some wiggle room on making decisions, and will still look at which teams are playing better at the end of the season, which teams have more quad one wins (higher ceiling), if a team got back an injured player who drastically helped improve performance, etc.

But these are in the margins and in the seeding. You won’t have with a relatively poor net jump a bunch of teams with higher rankings because of something like conference strength, wins against top 25 teams, concurrence record, etc.
 
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Refreshing ,someone actually posting facts

unfortunately being the underdog in a game by vegas does not equate as a quality win in the eyes of the committee/massey/net or anyone with 2 eyes and a fuctioning brain.
 
unfortunately being the underdog in a game by vegas does not equate as a quality win in the eyes of the committee/massey/net or anyone with 2 eyes and a fuctioning brain.
What's your problem.. Someone simply stating that what was posted as fact wasn't a fact and you somehow come at me... It was a good win on the road that we were underdogs in. Period
 
What's your problem.. Someone simply stating that what was posted as fact wasn't a fact and you somehow come at me... It was a good win on the road that we were underdogs in. Period

No problem. Just stating facts. I will take a road conference win any day, but the fact is beating a 8-8 Texas A&M (no matter who the Vegas favorite was) does little to nothing, in regards to getting an at large NCAA birth. I could be wrong but I think that is all VAcock# was saying.

Hopefully they carry the momentum into Auburn and pull out a W, that would be a high quality quad 1 victory. We don't have many more opportunities for those("quad 1 wins") with our schedule.
 
No problem. Just stating facts. I will take a road conference win any day, but the fact is beating a 8-8 Texas A&M (no matter who the Vegas favorite was) does little to nothing, in regards to getting an at large NCAA birth. I could be wrong but I think that is all VAcock# was saying.

Hopefully they carry the momentum into Auburn and pull out a W, that would be a high quality quad 1 victory. We don't have many more opportunities for those("quad 1 wins") with our schedule.
No one said it did anything great.. He just pointed out that we were not the favorite..
 
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