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NCAAT Outlook

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crouterhead

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Jun 7, 2003
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Lunardi currently has South Carolina as a 6-seed, but in Greenville!
http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology

Palm also gives them a 6-seed, but out in Salt Lake.
http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/bracketology

Team Rankings gives South Carolina a 99.4% chance to make the field, the most likely seed (30.4%) being the 6. In 72% of their simulations, the Gamecocks fall between 5 and 7.
https://www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-basketball/team/south-carolina-gamecocks/bracketology

(And if you're the worrisome sort...Team Rankings gives the Gamecocks a 75% chance for a bid even if they only win one more game the rest of the season, 97% chance if they win two more games.)
 
Again, HOW, HOW , HOW does Clemson still get in there? I have looked at their nonconference and it is not a whole lot better than ours in all honesty and they are 3-9 in their own conference. Dont give me the ole, "Well the loses are close ones". The fact is they have lost 3 games of every 4. They are I believe 2 games over .500 overall. Not knocking Clemson directly but really, how are they still in or on the bubble?
 
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CCUIrmo said:
Again, HOW, HOW , HOW does Clemson still get in there? I have looked at their nonconference and it is not a whole lot better than ours in all honesty and they are 3-9 in their own conference. Dont give me the ole, "Well the loses are close ones". The fact is they have lost 3 games of every 4. They are I believe 2 games over .500 overall. Not knocking Clemson directly but really, how are they still in or on the bubble?
Click to expand...

I don't think they'll get in unless they get to an 8-10 ACC record. That would be going 5-1 down the stretch. They're still in the conversation because they have very strong strength of schedule numbers. Also, no one seems to be mentioning this, as they are looking at it only from Clemson's perspective: what other bubble teams are there that DO have strong resumes? Clemson has lost 11 games. Well, Syracuse has lost 10, Tennessee 11, Seton Hall 9, Michigan St. 10, Indiana 11, Marquette 10, etc., etc.
 
I really can't decide who is hurting us more, them or Memphis....smh
 
crouterhead said:
Lunardi currently has South Carolina as a 6-seed, but in Greenville!
http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology

Palm also gives them a 6-seed, but out in Salt Lake.
http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/bracketology

Team Rankings gives South Carolina a 99.4% chance to make the field, the most likely seed (30.4%) being the 6. In 72% of their simulations, the Gamecocks fall between 5 and 7.
https://www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-basketball/team/south-carolina-gamecocks/bracketology

(And if you're the worrisome sort...Team Rankings gives the Gamecocks a 75% chance for a bid even if they only win one more game the rest of the season, 97% chance if they win two more games.)
Click to expand...
It's doubtful that any of these are correct but Lunardi's scenario makes for a very interesting 2nd round match-up between Frank Martin and Bob Huggins.
 
whythis28 said:
I really can't decide who is hurting us more, them or Memphis....smh
Click to expand...

Neither, really. Neither team is going to end up in the "bad loss" category, and that's the only thing you like to avoid. The Gamecocks will fall some if they lose two or three of these games down the stretch against middling teams. They will move up if they can steal one at Florida, or Kentucky in the SECT. Otherwise, they'll stick around that 6 number.
 
funktavious said:
It's doubtful that any of these are correct but Lunardi's scenario makes for a very interesting 2nd round match-up between Frank Martin and Bob Huggins.
Click to expand...

Yeah, unless you're one of the top 10 teams in the country, it's almost useless to think of the bracket in terms of which teams you'll be playing. Too many permutations available. Just gotta worry about that seed number.
 
crouterhead said:
Lunardi currently has South Carolina as a 6-seed, but in Greenville!
http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology

Palm also gives them a 6-seed, but out in Salt Lake.
http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/bracketology

Team Rankings gives South Carolina a 99.4% chance to make the field, the most likely seed (30.4%) being the 6. In 72% of their simulations, the Gamecocks fall between 5 and 7.
https://www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-basketball/team/south-carolina-gamecocks/bracketology

(And if you're the worrisome sort...Team Rankings gives the Gamecocks a 75% chance for a bid even if they only win one more game the rest of the season, 97% chance if they win two more games.)
Click to expand...

---

I'd prefer a 6 seed in Greenville to a 4 or 5 somewhere else. Our last three one-and-outs have been in: Pittsburgh ('97), D.C. ('98, practically a home game for Richmond), and Kansas City ('04). It'd be awesome to have a home-court atmosphere.
 
An interesting note this morning from TeamRankings.com. According to their numbers, the Gamecocks are more likely to get a 1-seed in the NCAAT (0.9% chance), than they are to miss the tournament (0.5% chance).

They give the Gamecocks better than a 50/50 chance of making the tourney, even if they lose out.
 
All i care about is how much time we can keep Chris Silva on the floor...His quickness, size, length and agility makes a world of difference in the paint on both ends of the floor...With Silva on the floor, we can beat just about anybody...When Silva is not on the floor we regress to a more vulnerable squad..We have some key games the next 2 weeks..I am more concerned about winning most of them than about the tournament..

Arkansas tonight is a big game...They are desperate for a big win...They will come after us with everything they have got..Another performance like our last home game will not help our seed or standing...
 
You are right...Arkansas needs the win much more than South Carolina does. But South Carolina is the better team, and they are at home.
 
crouterhead said:
You are right...Arkansas needs the win much more than South Carolina does. But South Carolina is the better team, and they are at home.
Click to expand...
Yes that's true...The same was true vs Alabama..We gotta show up and get it done...They are not going to roll over...We need to make shots and take it to them...Nobody gives you anything because you are ranked and have an impressive record
 
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crouterhead said:
An interesting note this morning from TeamRankings.com. According to their numbers, the Gamecocks are more likely to get a 1-seed in the NCAAT (0.9% chance), than they are to miss the tournament (0.5% chance).

They give the Gamecocks better than a 50/50 chance of making the tourney, even if they lose out.
Click to expand...

So what you're saying is FM NEEDS TO GET OFF HIS ASS AND COACH THIS TEAM UP OR WE ARE GOING TO MISS OUT ON THE TOURNEY?
 
This has us against middle Tennessee who is a great team. I rather not play them in round one look at the schedule they have played.
 
crouterhead said:
An interesting note this morning from TeamRankings.com. According to their numbers, the Gamecocks are more likely to get a 1-seed in the NCAAT (0.9% chance), than they are to miss the tournament (0.5% chance). They give the Gamecocks better than a 50/50 chance of making the tourney, even if they lose out.
Click to expand...

I seriously doubt those chances if we lose out, including going 0-1 in the SECT. But I think we can all agree that we don't want to test that theory.
 
allcarolina2 said:
---

I'd prefer a 6 seed in Greenville to a 4 or 5 somewhere else. Our last three one-and-outs have been in: Pittsburgh ('97), D.C. ('98, practically a home game for Richmond), and Kansas City ('04). It'd be awesome to have a home-court atmosphere.
Click to expand...
I agree. I'd take almost any seed in the state of South Carolina over almost any other seed anywhere else in the country. That would be a huge gift and a nice way to make up for getting completely shafted last year.
 
Same site now shows South Carolina with only a 98.5% chance of making the NCAA tournament. The more important story is that their average projected seeding dropped. They are now slightly more likely (24.7%) to get a 7-seed than any other. About a 44% chance to get a 6 seed or higher, which I believe should be the goal going forward.

https://www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-basketball/team/south-carolina-gamecocks/bracketology

Arkansas' chance for a bid went from 46% to 71% with their win last night. That's what beating a quality NCAA team will do for a resume.
 
crouterhead said:
Same site now shows South Carolina with only a 98.5% chance of making the NCAA tournament. The more important story is that their average projected seeding dropped. They are now slightly more likely (24.7%) to get a 7-seed than any other. About a 44% chance to get a 6 seed or higher, which I believe should be the goal going forward.

https://www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-basketball/team/south-carolina-gamecocks/bracketology

Arkansas' chance for a bid went from 46% to 71% with their win last night. That's what beating a quality NCAA team will do for a resume.
Click to expand...


The Gamecocks have the highest odds of any team, that is not yet at 100%. In other words, they are the closest to locking up a bid, among teams who haven't done so yet.
 
In my opinion, to get a 6-seed or higher, they need to win one of their next two games (at Vandy, at Florida), and then win 2 of the last 3 (vs. Tennessee, vs. Mississippi St., @ Ole Miss). To get higher than a 6, they may have to win out in the regular season.
 
crouterhead said:
In my opinion, to get a 6-seed or higher, they need to win one of their next two games (at Vandy, at Florida), and then win 2 of the last 3 (vs. Tennessee, vs. Mississippi St., @ Ole Miss). To get higher than a 6, they may have to win out in the regular season.
Click to expand...
I agree unless we go on a SECT run. But I think we will wind up somewhere between 6-9 seed; meaning I just don't see a ton of upside given our remaining schedule and recent performance...
 
As of Lunardi's last posting, Cocks have dropped from a potential 6th seed to a 7th seed in Sacramento. That's a heck of a long trip!
 
crouterhead said:
Lunardi currently has South Carolina as a 6-seed, but in Greenville!
http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology

Palm also gives them a 6-seed, but out in Salt Lake.
http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/bracketology

Team Rankings gives South Carolina a 99.4% chance to make the field, the most likely seed (30.4%) being the 6. In 72% of their simulations, the Gamecocks fall between 5 and 7.
https://www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-basketball/team/south-carolina-gamecocks/bracketology

(And if you're the worrisome sort...Team Rankings gives the Gamecocks a 75% chance for a bid even if they only win one more game the rest of the season, 97% chance if they win two more games.)
Click to expand...
What if they win no games at all the rest of the season?
 
crouterhead said:
Same site now shows South Carolina with only a 98.5% chance of making the NCAA tournament. The more important story is that their average projected seeding dropped. They are now slightly more likely (24.7%) to get a 7-seed than any other. About a 44% chance to get a 6 seed or higher, which I believe should be the goal going forward.

https://www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-basketball/team/south-carolina-gamecocks/bracketology

Arkansas' chance for a bid went from 46% to 71% with their win last night. That's what beating a quality NCAA team will do for a resume.
Click to expand...
I'm gonna look at it this way... if Arkansas can beat out clemson for a final spot, it will end up being a good loss for us.
 
West305 said:
As of Lunardi's last posting, Cocks have dropped from a potential 6th seed to a 7th seed in Sacramento. That's a heck of a long trip!
Click to expand...

With the Gamecocks not projected to be a top 4 kind of seed, the location of their first/second round games will be pretty random. The important thing is to try to stay out of a 2-7 game, if you can. A 3-6 game in the 2nd round would seem a lot easier.
 
bucketdad said:
I'm gonna look at it this way... if Arkansas can beat out clemson for a final spot, it will end up being a good loss for us.
Click to expand...

I don't really think in terms of "good loss". Maybe if you win a very close game on the road against a top team. The more important thing is to avoid bad losses. The Gamecocks have none of those.
 
After the loss Saturday, Lunardi has dropped the Gamecocks....not at all. Still a 7-seed. According to his bracket, South Carolina would have to get passed by at least 17 teams in the last 2 weeks to not make the tournament. Seventeen.

http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology

Jerry Palm has South Carolina as an 8 seed. The Gamecocks would need to get passed by at least 13 teams to not make his bracket.

http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/bracketology

Team Rankings gives South Carolina a 97% chance of making the tournament. Again, somewhere around 17 teams would have to pass them in these rankings.

https://www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-tournament/bracketology/


So, the Gamecocks are in tenuous position, if you consider being one of the last 17 teams in, to be tenuous.
 
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Gamecocks' chances of an NCAA tournament bid actually rose (very slightly) after last night, from 97.1% to 97.2%

What people don't seem to understand is that the Gamecocks are not the only team playing. For the Gamecocks to miss the tourney, it would not only take the Gamecocks losing. A bunch of other teams would have to run the table.

Last night, Clemson's chances dropped from 11% to 5%. Georgia Tech dropped from 9% to 2%. Northwestern from 74% to 62%. Indiana from 12% to 8%. The Gamecocks are not playing in a vacuum.

Where last night really hurt is that it makes getting a 6-seed or higher very difficult. They would probably need to win out in the regular season, and beat Kentucky or Florida in the SECT.

https://www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-basketball/team/south-carolina-gamecocks/bracketology
 
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The game Saturday is probably the most important remaining regular season game, since it is against a bubble team. The result will have a two-edged effect. Tennessee is the SEC's most legitimate bubble team, but they need a lot. A win by South Carolina Saturday would probably lock the Gamecocks in, and bury the Vols. Conversely, a loss by South Carolina would boost a bubble team in addition to hurting their own resume. South Carolina still would not be considered a bubble team, even if they lost Saturday, nor would Tennessee be in. But it would be a step in those directions.
 
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crouterhead said:
The game Saturday is probably the most important remaining regular season game, since it is against a bubble team. The result will have a two-edged effect. Tennessee is the SEC's most legitimate bubble team, but they need a lot. A win by South Carolina Saturday would probably lock the Gamecocks in, and bury the Vols. Conversely, a loss by South Carolina would boost a bubble team in addition to hurting their own resume. South Carolina still would not be considered a bubble team, even if they lost Saturday, nor would Tennessee be in. But it would be a step in those directions.
Click to expand...

Exactly ...

the state reporter today is way off, he states SC has to win all 3 games to get in tourney..wrong, wrong,wrong
 
cpvniii said:
We just need to take care of "our" business. If we do, the rest will take care of itself .
Click to expand...

Let's be real...the Gamecocks will be favored in their two remaining home games, and depending on how those go, probably also in their road game at Ole Miss. And in their first SECT game. I understand fans are nervous because of last year, but it's still highly unlikely the Gamecocks hit the "disaster lottery" and lose out. That's why the projections still have the Gamecocks as close to a lock...because it is just very unlikley that they'll put themselves in that position.
 
crouterhead said:
Lunardi currently has South Carolina as a 6-seed, but in Greenville!
http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology

Palm also gives them a 6-seed, but out in Salt Lake.
http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/bracketology

Team Rankings gives South Carolina a 99.4% chance to make the field, the most likely seed (30.4%) being the 6. In 72% of their simulations, the Gamecocks fall between 5 and 7.
https://www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-basketball/team/south-carolina-gamecocks/bracketology

(And if you're the worrisome sort...Team Rankings gives the Gamecocks a 75% chance for a bid even if they only win one more game the rest of the season, 97% chance if they win two more games.)
Click to expand...
Will take it!!!
 
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