I don't feel much different after four games than I thought I would. To the extent my optimism is greater than it was a couple of weeks ago, it might have more to do with the actual quality of our competition vs. what we perceived it to be in the preseason than an adjustment of expectations regarding our performance in absolute terms.
First games are always unpredictable, and UT looked like one of the several toss-up games that could reasonably go either way. Obviously, it didn't go ours. UF is a more talented team, and beating them in the Swamp was always going to be a tall order. We should've beaten Vandy handily and we did. Auburn turned out to be not as strong as anticipated, and we made some key plays in key moments to win. LSU has the potential to be a similar game.
I think there is a logjam of teams in the middle of the SEC where there is a small enough variation in talent such that coaching decisions, a couple of plays in big moments and player injuries/availability will mean the difference between wins and losses in head-to-head matchups between those teams. Based on the first four weeks of games, the mid-tier pack is larger than normal. That isn't a positive or negative reflection on Muschamp, just like it wasn't a positive or negative reflection on Spurrier when we piled up wins in a period where many analysts were saying that the SEC-E was just weak.
Last year, injuries and offensive coaching killed our season, so we lost more than our fair share of toss-ups. This year, COVID is making things more unpredictable than they normally are. However, we are arguably in a better position to weather injuries/illness, especially at the QB position; replacing a senior with a true freshman last year, especially with the lack of cohesive offensive game-planning, killed any chances of success. I feel a lot better about the QB room this year if something were to happen to Hill.
If all the bounces go our way for the remainder of the year, we will have a chance to win every game (possible exception being UGA; they are significantly better than we are and it would be a lot to expect back-to-back upsets). Life doesn't work that way, though, so we are looking at some split for the other five non-UGA opponents. We remain deficient at WR, LB, and the jury is out on the OL and safeties. Arguably, we are better than expected at RB, DL and QB. If we lose to UGA and don't win out/lose out, we finish between 3-7 and 6-4.
The coaching staff seems better, especially offensively, than it was last year with the additions of Bobo, Kitchings, Cox, Rocker and Wilson. However, it's too soon to tell whether the staff as a whole gives us a distinct advantage against any other SEC staffs, whether in terms of gameday coaching, player development or recruiting. I don't know whether they'll be around long enough to make a reasonably informed determination of just how strong the staff now is. Recruiting this year was always going to be down because of the modest number of SC prospects and the 4-8 finish.
Bottom line is that nothing much has changed in the past two weeks other than that we're now 2-2 rather than 0-2. I will enjoy it for what it is because life is always better after a win, but it doesn't mean that the coaching staff got better. Likewise, starting 0-2 in itself didn't mean much either.