Was curious what pieces are about the Gamecocks and how he thinks the SEC is going to shake down.
Phil Steele preseason junk is out; anyone have access to that info behind one of the pay walls?
- Thread starter vehemon
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Should be in line with all the others.
Hard to expect us to be picked ahead of Georgia when they signed more five stars this year than we have in 40 years.
Hard to expect us to be picked ahead of Georgia when they signed more five stars this year than we have in 40 years.
He's very much a traditionalist. In the sense, he lets recent past success dictate how the season is going to go in his predictions.
For example; he never gave the Gamecocks much preseason props for 2011-2013. And we did pretty damn good those years.
He finally gave some decent props for 2014 and everything fell apart.
It's almost like Corso picking us to win a game. If Steele says we are going to place 3rd or worst in the SEC East... probably means we will get 1st or 2nd.
He had the best accuracy rating of any pre-season mag for about a decade or so. But it's true that he based a lot of it on prior year performance. He'd basically take prior year outcomes and adjust for things like an unusual number of close wins/losses, unusually high or low turnover margin, and season-over-season shifts in strength of schedule or particularly the number of tough road games. Basically, he assumes unusual trends from the prior year will normalize and he tends to put more weight on what he can measure than what he can't.
So, I don't know why certain people get bent out of shape about it as if he's biased. He's a data nerd. That approach has its limitations because it doesn't account for impact of the incoming recruiting class, depth at critical positions, how guys performed in spring ball, etc., but it also has its advantages as it removes all the emotion. That's why a lot of people rely upon him for betting advice too.
I agree that he's a data nerd. But saying he removes all emotion isn't true.
He's done a poor job for predicting traditional powerhouse teams like Tennessee and Texas because he lets history get to the best of him.
You see this with lots of CF media. They are dying for the past to be revisited and let their nostalgic memories predict something they are hoping for. It makes it worse for Steele because he's supposed to be a pure data guy. The media is dying to see Tennessee, Miami, Texas, Michigan, and SoCal make it back to the elite.
You can still be bias when analyzing the data.
For a long time I'm going to remember the media declaring there's no possible way for Trump to win and pointing at 'data' to back up their claims.
People that are bias and try to use data to back up their claim tend to cherry pick data sets that prove their preferred narrative.
I just don't agree with you on this. Sure, even Phil Steele is a human being and we all have biases, but his entire reputation is based on being right. He take a Las Vegas betting approach to his analysis and sells his magazine on the specific premise that he's more accurate and data-driven than his competition. Right on the cover, it says "The Book the Experts Cannot Do Without," and he makes the claim, "Most accurate magazine for over 20 years." That's what drives him. It's all about his pre-season list being more accurate at year-end than his competition.
Have you ever listened to him on the radio? He certainly doesn't come across as a guy with a rooting interest in any particular team. Rather, he comes across as someone who is trying to identify a trend that others don't see. And he certainly doesn't seem to talk-up the traditional powers. He'll spend as much time talking about Louisiana Tech or Northern Iowa as he will any of the bluebloods.
Cherry-picking a year when he had Texas or Tennessee overrated doesn't change that. Every mag will get a few wrong, as would any of us, and it's certainly not evidence of anti-Gamecock bias.
In fact, check out his preview on South Carolina. He has the Gamecocks as one of his "surprise teams" for 2018 and is specifically taking USC to finish "over" the Vegas projection of 7.5 regular season wins, citing a strong home-field winning record, steady improvement under Muschamp, a lot of returning experience, and the return of some key injured players from last year.
Yep. Lazy Usually put us down for 6-7 wins I hope we
What was his prediction for us last year?
Did you actually read my post? It seems you took a few things completely out of context.
I wasn't cherry picking anything. I was simply making an observation on his past predictions for historically elite football teams. I didn't mention anything about having a 'anti-Gamecock bias'.
http://preseason.stassen.com/consensus/2011.html
2011 Texas prediction top 25 - 18 - actual result NOT RANKED
2011 Tennessee prediction SEC East 4 - actual result Last/7th
2012 Texas prediction top 25 - 7 - actual result 19
2012 Tennessee prediction SEC East 3 1/2(predicted a tie for 3rd with USC) - actual result 6th
2013 Texas prediction top 25 - 4 - actual result NOT RANKED
2013 Tennessee prediction SEC East 4 - actual result 6th
2014 Texas prediction top 25 - 25 - actual result NOT RANKED; not even a single vote
2014 Tennessee prediction SEC East 5 - actual result Tied 4th Finally got close
I was simply saying that he has some teams that he is always hyping up purely because of their namesake.
I take all these mags with grain of salt. Hell, I take everything with a grain of salt. Doesn't mean I don't like to read them. Means football's almost here yay.
That said, my one nit to pick with Phil Steele is he uses tiny font sizes. I about have to read his magazine with a magnifying glass these days.
That said, my one nit to pick with Phil Steele is he uses tiny font sizes. I about have to read his magazine with a magnifying glass these days.
He is a data nerd. Which I hate. Used to buy his magazine, but stopped. When reading sports related material I just don't care to have to concentrate hard enough for all the data to make sense. A little bit is fine, but he crams 10 pages of the stuff on one page. Give me the highlights. Give me a breakdown of the incoming recruits. An honest breakdown of the coaching staff. The season prediction. That's all I need.
I like to read the football mags for some insight. Of course some writers get teams wrong. Who on here thought UF would have ended up 4-7, and that's just one example.
Lighten up guys, you don't have to take every prediction seriously. It's mostly meant for entertainment
Lighten up guys, you don't have to take every prediction seriously. It's mostly meant for entertainment
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