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Stock Market

Roger Moore said:
Yes, all one has to do is look at what has happened to malls to realize that commercial real estate is finished.
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The model will have to change. A segment of the population will always enjoy shopping as an experience and for the immediacy of product acquisition. But the mall era, as we have known it, appears to be finished.
 
I try to avoid online discussions of the market because if I say the wrong thing and am identified I could get in trouble... So no recommendations here!
All I wanted to say is DAYUM! There was a meme going around recently about “stuff that feels illegal even though it is not”... One person said “staying home sick from work even when you are actually sick”... Ok... Investing in the market lately to me, feels like that! It feels like I am freaking STEALING!! 👀 It really should not be this easy, and I have been loving it but I keep waiting for the bottom to fall out!
 
alston said:
I spent this weekend in Omaha at a Berkshire Hathaway conference. It was an interesting weekend. The bottom line was don’t sell stocks until the next stimulus is passed. The market will continue to go up until a vaccine is established. Once a vaccine is established, the federal government will have to quit funding the businesses. As Buffett said, once the tide goes out we will see who has a swimsuit and who doesn’t. The conclusion was that 2021 is going to be awful regardless who is the president. The only thing propping up the economy is the fiscal stimulus and the fed’s easy money policy. The consensus is we will see a huge market pullback once the vaccine policy is implemented. The Fed policy will probably continue but the pullback of the fiscal money will lead to massive bankruptcy of small businesses. There will be a tremendous amount of job losses once these businesses shut down. And it will happen regardless who is president because we can’t afford to continue to fund these businesses forever. We have real negative interest rates for the first time in our lifetime. This is a horrible forward indicator. For that reason, Buffett says he has bought gold which he has never believed in as an investment. Commercial real estate is dead as a market according to him. We are in the midst of a economic restructuring which we realize people don’t need to go to an office to be productive. And this is certainly true. I have an office which takes up 24 floors of a building. We now work at 30% occupancy but 100% revenue.. We have learned we can cut half our floors without losing productivity. So the person who was touting REITS should limit themselves to residential REITS because commercial real estate is about to hit a depression. People give way too much credit to the President whether Democrat or Republican for stock market success. Bottom line is don’t buy stocks (or if you do plan to sell once the vaccine pop happens) and hunker down once we get a vaccine because the market is in for a turmoil.
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There is no fiscal stimulus right now. Some pundits believe that the monetary stimulus will go on for years. Powell tried to "sell his put" last year but couldn't get it done.

Don't fight the tape.
 
king ward said:
I've always bought and will continue to buy. I'm a dollar-cost-average long-haul kind of guy and it has served me well.
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I am with you. It has put on a path to early retirement. I do make larger purchases on dips.

I have been more conservative as I approach retirement. Sold almost everything before the tanked and started to buy back as the market was headed back up. I have about 65% of my $$'s back in the market.
 
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viennacocks said:
I am with you. It has put on a path to early retirement. I do make larger purchases on dips.

I have been more conservative as I approach retirement. Sold almost everything before the tanked and started to buy back as the market was headed back up. I have about 65% of my $$'s back in the market.
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I always try to have a healthy amount of cash on the sideline to enter on pullbacks. And even then go in tranches.
 
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Half of the posts in this thread are picking individual stocks. How are these picks doing compared to investing in overall market indexes such as the Dow and S&P 500?

USCALUMNI
 
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alston said:
I spent this weekend in Omaha at a Berkshire Hathaway conference. It was an interesting weekend. The bottom line was don’t sell stocks until the next stimulus is passed. The market will continue to go up until a vaccine is established. Once a vaccine is established, the federal government will have to quit funding the businesses. As Buffett said, once the tide goes out we will see who has a swimsuit and who doesn’t. The conclusion was that 2021 is going to be awful regardless who is the president. The only thing propping up the economy is the fiscal stimulus and the fed’s easy money policy. The consensus is we will see a huge market pullback once the vaccine policy is implemented. The Fed policy will probably continue but the pullback of the fiscal money will lead to massive bankruptcy of small businesses. There will be a tremendous amount of job losses once these businesses shut down. And it will happen regardless who is president because we can’t afford to continue to fund these businesses forever. We have real negative interest rates for the first time in our lifetime. This is a horrible forward indicator. For that reason, Buffett says he has bought gold which he has never believed in as an investment. Commercial real estate is dead as a market according to him. We are in the midst of a economic restructuring which we realize people don’t need to go to an office to be productive. And this is certainly true. I have an office which takes up 24 floors of a building. We now work at 30% occupancy but 100% revenue.. We have learned we can cut half our floors without losing productivity. So the person who was touting REITS should limit themselves to residential REITS because commercial real estate is about to hit a depression. People give way too much credit to the President whether Democrat or Republican for stock market success. Bottom line is don’t buy stocks (or if you do plan to sell once the vaccine pop happens) and hunker down once we get a vaccine because the market is in for a turmoil.
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Solid post. Thanks for the intel. I am afraid it is 100% correct.
 
viennacocks said:
I am with you. It has put on a path to early retirement. I do make larger purchases on dips.

I have been more conservative as I approach retirement. Sold almost everything before the tanked and started to buy back as the market was headed back up. I have about 65% of my $$'s back in the market.
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I've never dumped stocks en masse. I've never regretted not doing it. In taking that approach, the particular issues you own make all the difference in the world. You also have to be positioned financially and psychologically for the long game.
 
king ward said:
I've never dumped stocks en masse. I've never regretted not doing it. In taking that approach, the particular issues you own make all the difference in the world. You also have to be positioned financially and psychologically for the long game.
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This was the first time I have ever unloaded. Two years from retirement and I have hit my financial goal. When covid started getting ugly, I wasn't willing to take the risk.
 
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king ward said:
I've never dumped stocks en masse. I've never regretted not doing it. In taking that approach, the particular issues you own make all the difference in the world. You also have to be positioned financially and psychologically for the long game.
Click to expand...

what’s the “long game” when you are retired? Got to go more conservative when you are closer to death. 😱
 
These miniscule interest rates will keep the market overly inflated for years.
 
IH8FATBRAD said:
These miniscule interest rates will keep the market overly inflated for years.
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Truthfully, if valuation is tied to some definite factor, such as the interest rates, I really can't think of it as distorted in any way. One thing acts upon the other, and I suspect always has and always will.
 
I read today that historical put/call ratios are at a point that suggest shorts have now been completely pushed out of the market.
 
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gamecock stock said:
I read today that historical put/call ratios are at a point that suggest shorts have now been completely pushed out of the market.
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That's interesting. While that does not mean the market will turn down tomorrow, it's a VERY strong warning that the boat is too heavily weighted to one side at this time. I'm keeping my eye on small caps for confirmation. I try to practice risk management. This market, to me, smells like early 2020 and January 2018. I have 60% in cash ready to put to work for a pullback I expect into the fall of 2020.
 
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Roger Moore said:
That's interesting. While that does not mean the market will turn down tomorrow, it's a VERY strong warning that the boat is too heavily weighted to one side at this time. I'm keeping my eye on small caps for confirmation. I try to practice risk management. This market, to me, smells like early 2020 and January 2018. I have 60% in cash ready to put to work for a pullback I expect into the fall of 2020.
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Well, I don't make predictions about the markets. Never have. Just pointing out what I read. Good luck in your investment strategy.
 
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Roger Moore said:
That's interesting. While that does not mean the market will turn down tomorrow, it's a VERY strong warning that the boat is too heavily weighted to one side at this time. I'm keeping my eye on small caps for confirmation. I try to practice risk management. This market, to me, smells like early 2020 and January 2018. I have 60% in cash ready to put to work for a pullback I expect into the fall of 2020.
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At the market close on 8-28-20, the 60-day Put/Call open interest on Tesla was 1.36. A lot of shorts are still in the stock.
 
Roger Moore said:
That's interesting. While that does not mean the market will turn down tomorrow, it's a VERY strong warning that the boat is too heavily weighted to one side at this time. I'm keeping my eye on small caps for confirmation. I try to practice risk management. This market, to me, smells like early 2020 and January 2018. I have 60% in cash ready to put to work for a pullback I expect into the fall of 2020.
Click to expand...
I keep waiting for small caps to hit a wall but that hasnt happened. They were late to the party tho. I dont know what to make of them going forward but I am enjoying the ride.
 
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bucketdad said:
I keep waiting for small caps to hit a wall but that hasnt happened. They were late to the party tho. I dont know what to make of them going forward but I am enjoying the ride.
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I'm watching the small cap etf IWM, currently at 157.12. I think it could go to the 160-162 region. But, if it turns and falls below 154.50, it could be Mayday time. Not meant as investment advice. Just telling you my thoughts.
 
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Roger Moore said:
I'm watching the small cap etf IWM, currently at 157.12. I think it could go to the 160-162 region. But, if it turns and falls below 154.50, it could be Mayday time. Not meant as investment advice. Just telling you my thoughts.
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Good advice for some. I don't do Mayday.
 
Roger Moore said:
I'm watching the small cap etf IWM, currently at 157.12. I think it could go to the 160-162 region. But, if it turns and falls below 154.50, it could be Mayday time. Not meant as investment advice. Just telling you my thoughts.
Click to expand...
My small cap investment is in SMCWX. Been in it 1 yr 9 months when I decided to get a little less conservative and a little more diverse. Turned out to be a good time to get in. Now its at a 52 week high of 66.68 with an annualized return of 19.29%. Dont know a lot about its history other than that. Cant help but feel it's not going to last so it may be the only thing in the portfolio that's not long term thinking for me. Hopefully I'll figure out how to handle that later. Again, just gonna enjoy the ride.
 
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vacock# said:
But officer, chucktowncock said this is not a car so I can’t be charge with DUI.
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Too funny! Just wanted to add that Tesla, as a California company also makes huge dollars by selling their energy credits to companies that need the credits to avoid massive fines by the state. Remember that California is on that credit barter system Dems have wanted to put the U.S. on for decades. Elon Musk is just taking ad
 
I'd be extremely cautious in this artificially-pumped environment.

Trump will probably keep the FED printer going until after the election but they can't hold interest rates down much longer and the Treasury has purchased alot of crappy securities{bonds} to keep this tight rope act going.

We're up to 5 trillion+ committed to COVID and closing in on 25 trillion in total debt. That's insane.

If I had positions in traditional markets {gold & cyrpto here}, they would be protected w/ put calls as insurance.

Remember, digits on a page or screen mean nothing until you convert. :)
 
If the market thinks Biden wins the election (or if the Dems successfully steal the election as they are attempting to do) the market will crash. Creepy Joe plans to appoint Pocahontas as treasury secretary and she advocates taxing wealth in addition to your income. That means, if you own $1M in securities Biden will tax not only your $70,000 (if you are earning 7%) in dividend returns, but the $1M in securities value every year even if you don't sell the securities and realize a capital gain. Smart investors will all sell their securities at once before Biden can take office and get this train wreak of a economic policy passed. The market will crash and college will be free.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/25/investing/elizabeth-warren-treasury-secretary-biden/index.html
 
haneynfl said:
It really depends, but the rhetoric would be unfavorable in most cases. If he rolls back the Trump tax cuts and returns corporate rates higher it could spell trouble. Those items drove the market favorably. Also, Biden flip flops ( or doesn’t remember) depending on your view. The markets like Trump because they can predict him easier and he is typically pro-business. Biden may be unpredictable, which markets don’t like. You could actually see a slide in early fall if the market feels an uncertain change is coming. In other words, it could be “baked in” a little pre-election. Of course, that assumes the market sees a Biden win, which can be quite different than a current poll.

And this caveat, over the last 5-6 months - the market is unpredictable on its own.

I’m gonna try and get what I can now and go very conservative post Labor Day until the election - unless something becomes very obvious.
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New energy stocks will be big under Biden, as well as solar and biotec.
 
Slippery_Cock said:
If the market thinks Biden wins the election (or if the Dems successfully steal the election as they are attempting to do) the market will crash. Creepy Joe plans to appoint Pocahontas as treasury secretary and she advocates taxing wealth in addition to your income. That means, if you own $1M in securities Biden will tax not only your $70,000 (if you are earning 7%) in dividend returns, but the $1M in securities value every year even if you don't sell the securities and realize a capital gain. Smart investors will all sell their securities at once before Biden can take office and get this train wreak of a economic policy passed. The market will crash and college will be free.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/25/investing/elizabeth-warren-treasury-secretary-biden/index.html
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Pocahontas aint going nowhere financial . Joe aint gonna put her there. She sill be in charge of environmental protection of native american lands.
 
Slippery_Cock said:
If the market thinks Biden wins the election (or if the Dems successfully steal the election as they are attempting to do) the market will crash. Creepy Joe plans to appoint Pocahontas as treasury secretary and she advocates taxing wealth in addition to your income. That means, if you own $1M in securities Biden will tax not only your $70,000 (if you are earning 7%) in dividend returns, but the $1M in securities value every year even if you don't sell the securities and realize a capital gain. Smart investors will all sell their securities at once before Biden can take office and get this train wreak of a economic policy passed. The market will crash and college will be free.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/25/investing/elizabeth-warren-treasury-secretary-biden/index.html
Click to expand...

There is too much wrong in this post to bother with the long retort....I don’t have the time or inclination. Suffice to say I’ve been in the securities investment industry for over 30 years and follow the general political landscape closely, the above post is almost entirely without merit.
 
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hahnenkampf said:
Too funny! Just wanted to add that Tesla, as a California company also makes huge dollars by selling their energy credits to companies that need the credits to avoid massive fines by the state. Remember that California is on that credit barter system Dems have wanted to put the U.S. on for decades. Elon Musk is just taking ad
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Fox Business just reported Tesla is the number 1 most shorted stock followed by Apple as the number 2 most shorted stock. The short covering is pushing the price of both stocks into the stratosphere.
 
hahnenkampf said:
Fox Business just reported Tesla is the number 1 most shorted stock followed by Apple as the number 2 most shorted stock. The short covering is pushing the price of both stocks into the stratosphere.
Click to expand...
Was talking to a broker today and he said it best. The excitement around this Apple split is noise, but it's hard to ignore!!!
 
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