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Strange Times

BigWillieCock

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Sep 14, 2007
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Just a couple of observations on the strange times we’re living through.

On the way home yesterday I’m driving through a little section that is filled with small retail stores, restaurants, fast food, coffee shops, and a gas station. There signs on the road in front of so many businesses saying they’re hiring, sign on bonus etc. there were so many that it looks like election season with political signs. Never seen that before just thought it was an odd observation.

My business is now seeing full on shortages. From plastic, to metal, to chemicals most everything is on backorder and they have no guidance on when we can expect it to change. Further, the desperation seems to be ratcheting up because a truck filled with what supplies they do have was stolen from their facility Monday night. Trust me until now, nothing on that truck would have been worth stealing.

Lastly, had an HVAC in one of the stores yesterday. He said they are seeing lots of back orders on replacement parts.

Keeps getting stranger.
 
i was in a discussion with my financial advisor about this very subject. He claimed after doing some extensive research, there are countless theories , with numerous reasons, but no one has been able to point out one overriding factor.

I do get the shortage of fast food workers, bad pay, bad working conditions, and lately the interaction with the general public is toxic.
 
Just a couple of observations on the strange times we’re living through.

On the way home yesterday I’m driving through a little section that is filled with small retail stores, restaurants, fast food, coffee shops, and a gas station. There signs on the road in front of so many businesses saying they’re hiring, sign on bonus etc. there were so many that it looks like election season with political signs. Never seen that before just thought it was an odd observation.

My business is now seeing full on shortages. From plastic, to metal, to chemicals most everything is on backorder and they have no guidance on when we can expect it to change. Further, the desperation seems to be ratcheting up because a truck filled with what supplies they do have was stolen from their facility Monday night. Trust me until now, nothing on that truck would have been worth stealing.

Lastly, had an HVAC in one of the stores yesterday. He said they are seeing lots of back orders on replacement parts.

Keeps getting stranger.
Being in the apparel Industry it's been pure hell the last 6 months as far as inventory goes. I don't see any end to it in the near future.
 
The supply chain is screwed. I've been in my line of work for 30 years, and although the last year has been profitable, it's also been the most frustrating and stressful year ever. It's like playing whack a mole. Every time you get something taken care of, something else pops up as a problem.
 
i was in a discussion with my financial advisor about this very subject. He claimed after doing some extensive research, there are countless theories , with numerous reasons, but no one has been able to point out one overriding factor.

I do get the shortage of fast food workers, bad pay, bad working conditions, and lately the interaction with the general public is toxic.
Our business is with the public and toxic is putting it lightly. Know of other local business owners who are firing customers in droves after never having had that happen before.

I hear you to a point on fast food. But $15 an hour, sign on bonus of $500 or more, tuition reimbursement....is it that bad? I’ve had worse jobs for less.

Here’s my take on the shortages, it’s everywhere and everything thing now.

It starts with a consolidated and globalized economy. Everything before CoVid was on demand just in time supply chain.

Throw in a virus that shutdown the world. Same virus that smothers demand for a while. Then as things reopen the floodgates burst and the hole is hard to dig out of.

Labor shortages are more complicated to navigate now than after the financial crises. Why? Unintended hangover of well intended policies re unemployment benefits.

Bad luck. Situations like the chlorine shortage. Consolidation leaves fewer suppliers. A factory burns down (like in this example) and boom, massive shortage with no quick way to restart it.

Inflation. A year ago I was in the verge of bankruptcy. Now I’m turning away business. Why? My supply cost was up 15% before this shortage started. Now I’m having to buy supplies retail which drive it up to almost a 40% increase. If I raised prices 40% I’d lose business. So instead of investing in more staff and equipment to grow the business I’m spending more to do less. Have a restaurant owner customer who is in the same boat. Food costs are rising so quickly on him, he reduced seating and hours so he can reduce staff to help absorb the increase.

Side note, he tells me his suppliers say wine and liquor supplies are decreasing.

And lastly, fear. I’d probably be willing to take the plunge even amidst inflation and grow our business by making the capital investments we need in order to do so. But I know damn well there is 50/50 shot politics/CoVid might create more lockdowns. After losing nearly everything last year, I’m going to be prepared for that potential situation this time.
 
Contractors can’t get materials for construction. This, in no small part has had a positive effect on the existing home sales market. People can’t find homes to buy now, however.
I've been tempted to put mine on the market because I know I could get a ridiculous asking price for it. However, any house I entertained *buying*, would most assuredly have same said ridiculous price tag. If I were 25yrs younger, I might buy a piece of land, sell the house for a hefty profit, and live in a camper on said land riding out this housing bubble. (I'm no expert, but I can see this thing popping in the coming years - all of these inflated house prices, and one day those houses won't be worth that same amount of money when all of this covid-economy craps shakes out. Again, my non-expert theory.....and rabbit trail. LOL!)
 
I had a broker call and make a ridiculous offer for my house with an offer to close in 30 days. I thought long and hard about it but decided that if i bought another house i would not be able to purchase what i have for the same money. So i decided to just paint up and do some renovations on mine. Although that live in the camper thing is appealing
 
Being in the apparel Industry it's been pure hell the last 6 months as far as inventory goes. I don't see any end to it in the near future.
I think what I find amazing is how clueless many of our customers are. They come in and are like can get x done by y date (the old turn around times). We’re like nope, cando it. They ask why. You tell them labor issues, supply issues, whatever is the situation that week. They look at you dumbfounded.

I had a customer just last week in the scenario described above. They say where else might I go. Gave him two names of competitors. He calls them right in front of me and they give him the same answer. He just says before walking out, this is just unacceptable.
 
I went to a local Ford dealership to get a starter for my SUV and they said they didn't have one and wouldn't be able to get one due to core shortage. I thought WTH
 
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I've also gotten calls out of the blue from realtors. I already have a handshake agreement with my ex's brother to sell to him (their family home) at appraisal when he's ready.

The living in a camper is exactly what my wife and I will do (temporarily). I bought 10 acres of land about 15 years ago that I planned to build my forever home on, and I will at some point.
 
So was this supply chain disruption a “perfect storm” of events, or was the whole set up poorly designed in the first place and destined to fail eventually? From the outside it seems like there are no redundancies to serve as a back up in case one segment of the chain fails - that said, a lot happened in 2020 and could have burned through the safety nets in the chain.
 
I think what I find amazing is how clueless many of our customers are. They come in and are like can get x done by y date (the old turn around times). We’re like nope, cando it. They ask why. You tell them labor issues, supply issues, whatever is the situation that week. They look at you dumbfounded.

I had a customer just last week in the scenario described above. They say where else might I go. Gave him two names of competitors. He calls them right in front of me and they give him the same answer. He just says before walking out, this is just unacceptable.
I love it when they say I'll go some place else if you can't get it...I say Good Luck with that!!
 
So was this supply chain disruption a “perfect storm” of events, or was the whole set up poorly designed in the first place and destined to fail eventually? From the outside it seems like there are no redundancies to serve as a back up in case one segment of the chain fails - that said, a lot happened in 2020 and could have burned through the safety nets in the chain.
“52% of the U.S. manufacturing executives surveyed by the consulting firm Kearney said they have started buying more supplies in the United States in response to COVID-related supply disruptions”

https://apnews.com/article/joe-bide...AP&utm_campaign=SocialFlow&utm_source=Twitter
 
I think what I find amazing is how clueless many of our customers are. They come in and are like can get x done by y date (the old turn around times). We’re like nope, cando it. They ask why. You tell them labor issues, supply issues, whatever is the situation that week. They look at you dumbfounded.

I had a customer just last week in the scenario described above. They say where else might I go. Gave him two names of competitors. He calls them right in front of me and they give him the same answer. He just says before walking out, this is just unacceptable.
I run into the same issues. It's gotten so bad that I take meticulous notes when I talk to customers. For my product, I'm 7-8 week turnaround. And I tell customers it's an estimate, based on suppliers following through on their end. They don't get "estimate", they want to lock in a day, 2 months in advance. :rolleyes: I've had some tough conversations with customers. I'm a nice guy, but when I have notes and know exactly what I told you, you essentially call me a liar, it will not go well for you. Another thing I run into is customers will call one of my office guys trying to get a different answer. They're ruthless. The influx of yankees hasn't helped either. They're used to talking to people however they want. You're in the south now, it doesn't work that way here. I catch on to accents/attitudes quickly, and I have normal prices and also pain in the ass prices. If you're going to be a PITA, I'm going to make a chunk on you. ;) One of these days when I hang it up I'll miss what I do because I love what I do, but I won't miss the BS.
 
I run into the same issues. It's gotten so bad that I take meticulous notes when I talk to customers. For my product, I'm 7-8 week turnaround. And I tell customers it's an estimate, based on suppliers following through on their end. They don't get "estimate", they want to lock in a day, 2 months in advance. :rolleyes: I've had some tough conversations with customers. I'm a nice guy, but when I have notes and know exactly what I told you, you essentially call me a liar, it will not go well for you. Another thing I run into is customers will call one of my office guys trying to get a different answer. They're ruthless. The influx of yankees hasn't helped either. They're used to talking to people however they want. You're in the south now, it doesn't work that way here. I catch on to accents/attitudes quickly, and I have normal prices and also pain in the ass prices. If you're going to be a PITA, I'm going to make a chunk on you. ;) One of these days when I hang it up I'll miss what I do because I love what I do, but I won't miss the BS.
Pain in the ass pricing? What do you mean? No...I’ve never....
 
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But I thought when McMaster ended the federal unemployment benefits everyone was going to “get back to work.”
 
But I thought when McMaster ended the federal unemployment benefits everyone was going to “get back to work.”
It’s definitely helped. We are fully staffed, which we couldn’t achieve between October 2020 and June 2021.

The issue now is performance. The newbies know there’s a job next door for them. So if they show up late or don’t follow procedure and you bring up to them, they quit on the spot.

Caught a recent new hire on the camera on their phone saying “well they about to find out I don’t do busy work, asking me to empty the trash and sweep, I ain’t no housekeeper”

Didn’t solve that problem.

Without getting specific, what type of work do you do?
 
It’s definitely helped. We are fully staffed, which we couldn’t achieve between October 2020 and June 2021.

The issue now is performance. The newbies know there’s a job next door for them. So if they show up late or don’t follow procedure and you bring up to them, they quit on the spot.

Caught a recent new hire on the camera on their phone saying “well they about to find out I don’t do busy work, asking me to empty the trash and sweep, I ain’t no housekeeper”

Didn’t solve that problem.

Without getting specific, what type of work do you do?
I’m in education. It takes more than it’s fair share of hits around here.

I’m not sure you “couldn’t achieve” full staffing, but pay and work environment compared to your competition certainly factors into the equation.

You’re right about performance. New people aren’t going to usually be great. They have to be properly trained and that takes an investment. If they’re just sent out to the job, a lot of times the performance is subpar, especially if the worker has no experience in the said field. Sometimes it’s better to be lower staffed than it is to be fully staffed with the wrong people in place.

As for the recent hire you caught on camera, it sounds like he either faked a good interview or someone hired the wrong person.
 
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As a consumer I’ve noticed consistently higher prices and worse service at all kinds of retail/service businesses.
Same here, it's like people don't care.

More than once I've had customers tell me that I'm the only company that returned their call. That's unacceptable. Even if you can't do the job, the least you can do is return the call, it's called courtesy.
 
I’m in education. It takes more than it’s fair share of hits around here.

I’m not sure you “couldn’t achieve” full staffing, but pay and work environment compared to your competition certainly factors into the equation.

You’re right about performance. New people aren’t going to usually be great. They have to be properly trained and that takes an investment. If they’re just sent out to the job, a lot of times the performance is subpar, especially if the worker has no experience in the said field. Sometimes it’s better to be lower staffed than it is to be fully staffed with the wrong people in place.

As for the recent hire you caught on camera, it sounds like he either faked a good interview or someone hired the wrong person.
That’s right, I remember now from some earlier discussions. That’s a different ball of wax these days.

I can agree at a macro level about wages. I mean Wal Mart and Amazon Prime are great examples of hoarding massive piles of cash to build a spaceship vs bettering wages vs say Publix which is an ESOP.

That’s certainly part of the problem, but something else has changed. I started my career in hotel management in 2001. For the most part your line level staff fit into two main categories 1- non college educated longer term employees 2- in college or just out of college temporary employees.

I moved on to a regional manager role and then a director of ops role until 2007. So for 5 years I was intimately involved in the hiring process across 5 states. From 2007-2019 I worked my up up the executive food chain becoming less personally involved in line level hiring as we grew into 13 states and 5 countries.

The company offered very competitive pay, bonus structures, health benefits, vacation and travel benefits, tuition reimbursement opportunities and became 30% employee owned during that period of time. Your average front desk agent in 2013 was making more than I made as manager in 2002. But around 2013 something started to shift everywhere within the US. Our international labor force remained largely stable.

We noticed by 2015-2016 some changes in who made up our domestic workforce. 1- the high school educated group was yielding recruits that seemed to care less about a stable job with benefits. Especially startling in that group was the increasing numbers that didn’t have any desire to go into a management track and advance their career opportunities. 2- the transitionary college students largely disappeared around 2015.

My point is we paid less and offered less in the early days and didn’t have the labor challenges we had when we paid way more with a ton to offer. I have no idea what it was, but there was a major shift in just a couple of years. From California to Wisconsin from Maine to Florida we saw it everywhere.

And here’s the real kicker. We at the executive level could see it in the numbers. We could here it in discussions with our local managers who were bearing the brunt of it, but I can tell you we had no idea.

It wasn’t until 2019, when I left the company and had my own small business that I got it. Being hands on in hiring at the line level again left me dumbfounded. The difference in applicant in Charleston between the time I left in 2004 and the time I returned in 2019 was night and day.

I noticed it elsewhere two. I spent a good deal of time doing delivery to our various hotel clients. From Marriott to Hilton to the high end boutiques downtown, I interacted mostly with the front desk staff. Completely different workforce than the one I started my career in.

I think for anyone who worked a front line job in the 90s up until 2010 or so, but hadn’t worked a frontline job since, you have no idea how massive the change is. I know I sure as hell didn’t. I can promise you if I really understood it, I would have made different choices about this stage of my life.

Pay is certainly a carrot, but it is not the carrot it once was. Once we find the right person, it works very well. Unfortunately that right person is someone who’s actually had a few bad jobs with bad pay and doesn’t want to give this up to go next door because we ask them to keep things neat and tidy. And I say unfortunate because that is a dwindling pool to draw from.

Recently we hired someone we knew who is a college educated engineer. Desiring to make some extra money they worked at Publix part time. This person is in their early 30s and even they remarked how different the people they worked at Publix with were compared to the last time they worked front line in the late 2000s.

We can toss around all the ideas in the world about paying and how to be a more attractive company, etc. And it’s a good idea. Been there done that bought the tshirt. But the challenge is larger than that.

I do not claim to have the answer. There is no magic bullet here. It’s something in this moment’s collective culture that has to be understood.

But at least it’s back to the old problem of quality compared to October- June. I can cycle through knowing eventually you find the right fit. Before the benefits stopped there was no one to cycle through.
 
As a consumer I’ve noticed consistently higher prices and worse service at all kinds of retail/service businesses.
Going to get worse for a while. This inflation cycle is starting to get nasty. The labor shortage sent wages up. Supply costs sending prices up. If some of the estimates that food cost will increase by 10-15% by the end of 2021 come true, prices will go up more because wage increases have to offset cost of living increases.

I’m not so sure we ever truly paid the piper from the financial crisis, so this CoVid situation has exposed a lot and we’re paying for it now.
 
That’s right, I remember now from some earlier discussions. That’s a different ball of wax these days.

I can agree at a macro level about wages. I mean Wal Mart and Amazon Prime are great examples of hoarding massive piles of cash to build a spaceship vs bettering wages vs say Publix which is an ESOP.

That’s certainly part of the problem, but something else has changed. I started my career in hotel management in 2001. For the most part your line level staff fit into two main categories 1- non college educated longer term employees 2- in college or just out of college temporary employees.

I moved on to a regional manager role and then a director of ops role until 2007. So for 5 years I was intimately involved in the hiring process across 5 states. From 2007-2019 I worked my up up the executive food chain becoming less personally involved in line level hiring as we grew into 13 states and 5 countries.

The company offered very competitive pay, bonus structures, health benefits, vacation and travel benefits, tuition reimbursement opportunities and became 30% employee owned during that period of time. Your average front desk agent in 2013 was making more than I made as manager in 2002. But around 2013 something started to shift everywhere within the US. Our international labor force remained largely stable.

We noticed by 2015-2016 some changes in who made up our domestic workforce. 1- the high school educated group was yielding recruits that seemed to care less about a stable job with benefits. Especially startling in that group was the increasing numbers that didn’t have any desire to go into a management track and advance their career opportunities. 2- the transitionary college students largely disappeared around 2015.

My point is we paid less and offered less in the early days and didn’t have the labor challenges we had when we paid way more with a ton to offer. I have no idea what it was, but there was a major shift in just a couple of years. From California to Wisconsin from Maine to Florida we saw it everywhere.

And here’s the real kicker. We at the executive level could see it in the numbers. We could here it in discussions with our local managers who were bearing the brunt of it, but I can tell you we had no idea.

It wasn’t until 2019, when I left the company and had my own small business that I got it. Being hands on in hiring at the line level again left me dumbfounded. The difference in applicant in Charleston between the time I left in 2004 and the time I returned in 2019 was night and day.

I noticed it elsewhere two. I spent a good deal of time doing delivery to our various hotel clients. From Marriott to Hilton to the high end boutiques downtown, I interacted mostly with the front desk staff. Completely different workforce than the one I started my career in.

I think for anyone who worked a front line job in the 90s up until 2010 or so, but hadn’t worked a frontline job since, you have no idea how massive the change is. I know I sure as hell didn’t. I can promise you if I really understood it, I would have made different choices about this stage of my life.

Pay is certainly a carrot, but it is not the carrot it once was. Once we find the right person, it works very well. Unfortunately that right person is someone who’s actually had a few bad jobs with bad pay and doesn’t want to give this up to go next door because we ask them to keep things neat and tidy. And I say unfortunate because that is a dwindling pool to draw from.

Recently we hired someone we knew who is a college educated engineer. Desiring to make some extra money they worked at Publix part time. This person is in their early 30s and even they remarked how different the people they worked at Publix with were compared to the last time they worked front line in the late 2000s.

We can toss around all the ideas in the world about paying and how to be a more attractive company, etc. And it’s a good idea. Been there done that bought the tshirt. But the challenge is larger than that.

I do not claim to have the answer. There is no magic bullet here. It’s something in this moment’s collective culture that has to be understood.

But at least it’s back to the old problem of quality compared to October- June. I can cycle through knowing eventually you find the right fit. Before the benefits stopped there was no one to cycle through.
I agree things have changed. I actually see this shift in the workforce within the schools. I personally would attribute it to:

1. Bad/Helicopter Parenting. Too many friends and not enough parents.
2. A “me first” society that has been getting worse the last two decades. Go for a drive and let me know how long before someone pulls out in front of you. They won’t get there much faster, just a lack of concern for anyone other than themselves.
3. I blame state government for lack of funding and tying funding to school graduation rates. This has in essence caused a lot of schools to feel pressure to pass kids just because. These kids know they did not deserve to pass and then think the rules will be bent for them in the work force as well.
4. Too many employers are scared to pull the trigger and fire bad employees. I’ve worked in construction, retail, advertising, etc….and I’ve seen companies give bad employees chance after chance after chance. Sometimes people beg to be fired but want to drag out doing the minimum or less because it’s a steady check for little to no work. It’s a$$ backwards but I’ve seen some companies treat these people better than the ones busting their a$$ for the company. Sometimes it’s politics, sometimes it’s a lack of a pulse for what’s really going on. I love watching undercover boss, but it’s a shame when company leaders have to go undercover to see things that in my opinion should not be oblivious to them.

There are probably more reasons but fixing this would be a heck of a start
 
i was in a discussion with my financial advisor about this very subject. He claimed after doing some extensive research, there are countless theories , with numerous reasons, but no one has been able to point out one overriding factor.

I do get the shortage of fast food workers, bad pay, bad working conditions, and lately the interaction with the general public is toxic.
It's a huge social divide going on right now and a lot of grey area regarding entitlement, responsibility, and education.

I can't say this enough; this covid thing has brought the worst out of a lot of people.

This country is in desperate need of leadership in the following;
  • Public/private education restructure
  • Social and civic responsibility of US citizens
  • Empathy to your fellow citizen
  • Gov fiscal responsibility
  • Rediscovering what it means to have the 'American Dream'
Social media is tearing at the fabric of the nation in so many negative ways.
There's so much content coming out of the internet that people have quit trying to differentiate between a true fact and a false fact.
(Got into an argument this weekend with someone saying that all facts are true... technically facts can be false. A fact is a statement that can be verified. It can be proven true or false through objective evidence. The public typically assumes that if a something is labelled a fact that it's true. )
People choose to live in echo chambers and only want to hear information from other people that have the same beliefs.
People have stopped learning how to debate properly and bring in emotion and logical fallacies to defend their positions.

All of these 'micro problems' are pieces of the problems with the bigger picture.
 
Going to get worse for a while. This inflation cycle is starting to get nasty. The labor shortage sent wages up. Supply costs sending prices up. If some of the estimates that food cost will increase by 10-15% by the end of 2021 come true, prices will go up more because wage increases have to offset cost of living increases.

I’m not so sure we ever truly paid the piper from the financial crisis, so this CoVid situation has exposed a lot and we’re paying for it now.
This is what i'm worried about long term. I'm prepared to cut out 95% of my restaurant budget in full expectation of these places cost going through the roof. I feel extremely sorry for small business owners. They are going to lose their lively hoods in the next 5-10 years... All their hard work for the last few decades is going to amount to nothing in the end.
 
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I agree things have changed. I actually see this shift in the workforce within the schools. I personally would attribute it to:

1. Bad/Helicopter Parenting. Too many friends and not enough parents.
2. A “me first” society that has been getting worse the last two decades. Go for a drive and let me know how long before someone pulls out in front of you. They won’t get there much faster, just a lack of concern for anyone other than themselves.
3. I blame state government for lack of funding and tying funding to school graduation rates. This has in essence caused a lot of schools to feel pressure to pass kids just because. These kids know they did not deserve to pass and then think the rules will be bent for them in the work force as well.
4. Too many employers are scared to pull the trigger and fire bad employees. I’ve worked in construction, retail, advertising, etc….and I’ve seen companies give bad employees chance after chance after chance. Sometimes people beg to be fired but want to drag out doing the minimum or less because it’s a steady check for little to no work. It’s a$$ backwards but I’ve seen some companies treat these people better than the ones busting their a$$ for the company. Sometimes it’s politics, sometimes it’s a lack of a pulse for what’s really going on. I love watching undercover boss, but it’s a shame when company leaders have to go undercover to see things that in my opinion should not be oblivious to them.

There are probably more reasons but fixing this would be a heck of a start
Spot on and I think in the correct order.

You’re right about the firing thing. For us at the old company it was legal. Once we crossed 1,000 employees the lawsuits started rolling in. Perceived as quick settlements. Legal and HR would almost require theft, abuse or other criminal acts to fire someone. And ALWAYS with a damn severance.

Now I’d say I’m still afraid to fire a mediocre employee who shows up to work on time every day. Different reason. Hell thats 80% of the job in this current time. It’s like finding a unicorn sometimes.
 
It's a huge social divide going on right now and a lot of grey area regarding entitlement, responsibility, and education.

I can't say this enough; this covid thing has brought the worst out of a lot of people.

This country is in desperate need of leadership in the following;
  • Public/private education restructure
  • Social and civic responsibility of US citizens
  • Empathy to your fellow citizen
  • Gov fiscal responsibility
  • Rediscovering what it means to have the 'American Dream'
Social media is tearing at the fabric of the nation in so many negative ways.
There's so much content coming out of the internet that people have quit trying to differentiate between a true fact and a false fact.
(Got into an argument this weekend with someone saying that all facts are true... technically facts can be false. A fact is a statement that can be verified. It can be proven true or false through objective evidence. The public typically assumes that if a something is labelled a fact that it's true. )
People choose to live in echo chambers and only want to hear information from other people that have the same beliefs.
People have stopped learning how to debate properly and bring in emotion and logical fallacies to defend their positions.

All of these 'micro problems' are pieces of the problems with the bigger picture.
I’ll try and find it, but a I recently saw a chart of what one minute looks like on the internet. In terms of where the activities are. Supports your point.
 
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This is what i'm worried about long term. I'm prepared to cut out 95% of my restaurant budget in full expectation of these places cost going through the roof. I feel extremely sorry for small business owners. They are going to lose their lively hoods in the next 5-10 years... All their hard work for the last few decades is going to amount to nothing in the end.
It’s definitely going to happen in a lot of places. We’re in the world’s second oldest business, the laundry business.

We are a basic needed service that’s hard to consolidate and until people stop wearing clothes, using curtains, bath towels, blankets and the like, we should be able to survive. It’s one of the main reasons I chose this business, longer leash on being outdated by tech than some others.

If this inflation/labor situation sticks around too long, we’re going to have our hand forced in automating so much of what we do. And I would hate that, for the good ones in our staff it’s a good job and they are great people. They’re just people who made choices earlier in life that create a lot of barriers for them in today’s workplace.

But to your point, I’ve got creditors and personal guarantees on leases that I have to juggle in the long run. I was in big business a long time doing big deals with the banks money. Signing your own name to huge dollar amount commitments, now that’s another perspective.

The one thing we can’t survive, people being forced into their homes. A large part of surviving last year was gaining what little business there was when someone else sadly went out of business.
 
Now I’d say I’m still afraid to fire a mediocre employee who shows up to work on time every day. Different reason. Hell thats 80% of the job in this current time. It’s like finding a unicorn sometimes.
Same. If I guy shows up every day, he's valuable. I have some good employees, but I have 3 that are going to miss at least 1 day per week, never fails. My solution is keeping one more guy than I really need. I can't just fire people for skipping work anymore. Training new people (if you can find them) takes time, they don't start producing money for me for at least 2 months. I just deal with the missed days.
 
Same. If I guy shows up every day, he's valuable. I have some good employees, but I have 3 that are going to miss at least 1 day per week, never fails. My solution is keeping one more guy than I really need. I can't just fire people for skipping work anymore. Training new people (if you can find them) takes time, they don't start producing money for me for at least 2 months. I just deal with the missed days.
Exactly. Exactly. Exactly.

Have person now, second time they’re with us after quitting for a perceived better job. Out at least two days a month and they only work 4 days as it is, by their choice. But when they show up, excellent. Customers and co workers love them. Other than the calling out wish I could clone them.

In between this persons two stints with us, quite a bit of turnover.

I think that what frustrates me most. People more advanced in their careers and far away from this have no clue. I was one of those people.

Had and old codger customer complaining about our prices and turn around time (from his $100,000 Mercedes BTW). He said y’all just got a pay people more. So I asked what we should pay. He said at least $12 an hour. I’m like we start someone with zero experience who breathes at $15. He followed up with, if prices keep going up I’m going have to find someone else.

That dude in his Mercedes who lives at Kiawah (he brags about it) is THE PROBLEM. Fat, dumb, and so far removed from reality, yet espousing his wisdom while being a cheap ass.
 
Same. If I guy shows up every day, he's valuable. I have some good employees, but I have 3 that are going to miss at least 1 day per week, never fails. My solution is keeping one more guy than I really need. I can't just fire people for skipping work anymore. Training new people (if you can find them) takes time, they don't start producing money for me for at least 2 months. I just deal with the missed days.
I got one of those...4 days is about all I can get out of him. It just freaking hard hiring people in my industry. I can see retirement coming earlier rather then later
 
Just a couple of observations on the strange times we’re living through.

On the way home yesterday I’m driving through a little section that is filled with small retail stores, restaurants, fast food, coffee shops, and a gas station. There signs on the road in front of so many businesses saying they’re hiring, sign on bonus etc. there were so many that it looks like election season with political signs. Never seen that before just thought it was an odd observation.

My business is now seeing full on shortages. From plastic, to metal, to chemicals most everything is on backorder and they have no guidance on when we can expect it to change. Further, the desperation seems to be ratcheting up because a truck filled with what supplies they do have was stolen from their facility Monday night. Trust me until now, nothing on that truck would have been worth stealing.

Lastly, had an HVAC in one of the stores yesterday. He said they are seeing lots of back orders on replacement parts.

Keeps getting stranger.

No, “strange times” was eating some orange sunshine amongst 300,000 at Rockingham

August 18, 1972 North Carolina Motor Speedway, Rockingham, NC ...

 
I got one of those...4 days is about all I can get out of him. It just freaking hard hiring people in my industry. I can see retirement coming earlier rather then later
It’s so hard I got banned for a while from my most convenient gas station. I get Circle K coffee every morning. It’s fresh ground and so much cheaper and faster than Starbucks or Dunkin.

So I’m in there every day and get to be aware of the employees. I wait until I can tell by their demeanor they’ve got one foot out the door (you can always tell, that place is a shit show, and after a month or two a really friendly person looks like their in the prison breakfast line). And I give them my card and say if you know anyone looking we are hiring.

Someone tattled on me and I got booted. Only lasted a few weeks, they go through managers faster than employees.
 
No, “strange times” was eating some orange sunshine amongst 300,000 at Rockingham

August 18, 1972 North Carolina Motor Speedway, Rockingham, NC ...

I’m imaging the world through a tied dyed Allman Bros tshirt with talking mushrooms.
 
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This supply chain/labor thing, is it the same in other first world countries? My theory for many years is that the USA is basically transitioning to a third world country, with wealth inequality, unreliable infrastructure/services, violence, and an every man/tribe for himself type ethos all on the rise. But maybe it’s not just us that is having the wheels fall off?
 
Same. If I guy shows up every day, he's valuable. I have some good employees, but I have 3 that are going to miss at least 1 day per week, never fails. My solution is keeping one more guy than I really need. I can't just fire people for skipping work anymore. Training new people (if you can find them) takes time, they don't start producing money for me for at least 2 months. I just deal with the missed days.
That's the problem I'm in right now. I'll bring someone on new. It literally takes 3-6 months to get them up to speed and then they take another job paying more and used us as a free platform for their professional education.

We are paying kids straight out college more than I made in the same field 2-3 times more than I started with back in 2003-2004.

And even with that; we still are having to beg countries like China and India to fill the void because their isn't enough candidates here in the states that can handle the math/logic/programming we need.

Every year in my yearly review with my boss I always think back at my high school teacher trying to tell me there are going to be too many computer experts in the world when I graduate and I need to think about a second career. She told me this as I was basically teaching her class for her.
 
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