ADVERTISEMENT

Substantively, what's the difference between 0-10 and 3-7 in Year 5?

JComp

Member
Sep 11, 2020
444
479
63
There's been lots of talk about what our final record could be. Consensus seems to be 2-8 or 3-7 (though 1-9 has gained steam in recent days). My question, though, is does it matter? How much different are those records than 0-10 in terms of where the program stands? Say we go 3-7, does that mean we are in substantively better shape than if we went 0-10? My opinion is, no. 3-7 is still terrible. Sure, 0-10 looks much worse and carries the "winless" stigma, but when you get right down to it, it's not that much different. By Year 5, we are solidly out of the rebuilding phase. Done. Over. This is fully Champ's team. We've gone from 9 wins, to 7 wins to 4 wins to, most likely, something less than that this season. In conference we've gone from 5 wins to 4 wins to 3 wins. We may get to 3 conference wins this year, but only because we're playing 2 extra conference games. If this was Champ's first year and he was taking over a winless team and took us to 3 wins, you'd say "ok, that's at least progress." But by Year 5, not the case. Covid has impacted a lot about the world, but it has no bearing on the product we've see on the field so far this year. Anything short of 5-5 this year shows further regression. When you've regressed from Year 2 to Year 3, Year 3 to Year 4 and Year 4 to Year 5, that's a pattern.

I'm fairly certain Champ doesn't go anywhere this year because of the financial impact of covid (though I think 1-9 or 0-10 forces a conversation), but when we come to the end of the year and are sitting at 2-8 or 3-7, what's the message going to be? It can't be that we're making progress. It can't be that we're moving in the right direction. So what exactly will it be? Ray gave us the old "I still believe in Coach Muschamp" speech last year. He can't think fans are dumb enough to fall for that 2 years in a row.

Can Ray, with a straight face, say that he has faith in Champ and his staff? Ray's hands may very well tied b/c of the financial hit from covid, but this would be the time for him to flex his muscle as AD and say something along the lines of "There's no denying that it was a disappointing year. We certainly expected more in Year 5, and we owe better to our fans. Coach Muschamp and I have talked about the direction of the program and what the expectations should be going forward."

The sad reality is that we likely will go something like 3-7 this year. Next year, we'll get to pad the schedule again with some creampuff teams so we'll probably pick up a couple extra wins to go 5-7 and the message will be "Hey, we were 3-7 last year and 5-7 this year, so we're moving in the right direction."
 
But we had 3 conference wins in 8 conference games last year. How would 3 conference wins out of 10 conference games be considered even treading water?
We picked up LSU and Ole Miss. Even if we lose both and end up with 3 wins we would be in the same boat as last year in terms of the SEC record.

It wouldn’t change anything about my opinion of Muschamp but the perception would be a lot different among some.
 
There's been lots of talk about what our final record could be. Consensus seems to be 2-8 or 3-7 (though 1-9 has gained steam in recent days). My question, though, is does it matter? How much different are those records than 0-10 in terms of where the program stands? Say we go 3-7, does that mean we are in substantively better shape than if we went 0-10? My opinion is, no. 3-7 is still terrible. Sure, 0-10 looks much worse and carries the "winless" stigma, but when you get right down to it, it's not that much different. By Year 5, we are solidly out of the rebuilding phase. Done. Over. This is fully Champ's team. We've gone from 9 wins, to 7 wins to 4 wins to, most likely, something less than that this season. In conference we've gone from 5 wins to 4 wins to 3 wins. We may get to 3 conference wins this year, but only because we're playing 2 extra conference games. If this was Champ's first year and he was taking over a winless team and took us to 3 wins, you'd say "ok, that's at least progress." But by Year 5, not the case. Covid has impacted a lot about the world, but it has no bearing on the product we've see on the field so far this year. Anything short of 5-5 this year shows further regression. When you've regressed from Year 2 to Year 3, Year 3 to Year 4 and Year 4 to Year 5, that's a pattern.

I'm fairly certain Champ doesn't go anywhere this year because of the financial impact of covid (though I think 1-9 or 0-10 forces a conversation), but when we come to the end of the year and are sitting at 2-8 or 3-7, what's the message going to be? It can't be that we're making progress. It can't be that we're moving in the right direction. So what exactly will it be? Ray gave us the old "I still believe in Coach Muschamp" speech last year. He can't think fans are dumb enough to fall for that 2 years in a row.

Can Ray, with a straight face, say that he has faith in Champ and his staff? Ray's hands may very well tied b/c of the financial hit from covid, but this would be the time for him to flex his muscle as AD and say something along the lines of "There's no denying that it was a disappointing year. We certainly expected more in Year 5, and we owe better to our fans. Coach Muschamp and I have talked about the direction of the program and what the expectations should be going forward."

The sad reality is that we likely will go something like 3-7 this year. Next year, we'll get to pad the schedule again with some creampuff teams so we'll probably pick up a couple extra wins to go 5-7 and the message will be "Hey, we were 3-7 last year and 5-7 this year, so we're moving in the right direction."
I get the point you're trying to make but it seems that "winless stigma" is a stink that you won't wash off for a long time. As bad as three wins are, it won't haunt a team as much as that goose egg.
 
We may get to 3 conference wins this year, but only because we're playing 2 extra conference games.
Which of the two extra games between LSU and Ole Miss are going to add to our win total? If we go 3-7, we'll have 7 conference losses, but only because we play extra conference games.
 
I get the point you're trying to make but it seems that "winless stigma" is a stink that you won't wash off for a long time. As bad as three wins are, it won't haunt a team as much as that goose egg.
Accurate. I don't remember any times where we've only had 2 or 3 wins - they just don't stick out; but I remember 0-11.......
 
Wow...I really didn't expect people to argue that 3 wins this year would be progress.
That wasn't the question. The discussion is whether there is a difference between three wins and zero wins. I'd argue there is.
 
Wow...I really didn't expect people to argue that 3 wins this year would be progress.
Wow. I really didn't expect you to stand up a straw man instead of answering the question. Maybe I did. For the record, and we may be quibbling over details, I never said it was progress (others might). I did indicate it wouldn't necessarily mean a decline because it is par for the course. I'd love to see 5 or 6 wins. That would be huge. But alas, I doubt it's in the cards this year.
 
Wow. I really didn't expect you to stand up a straw man instead of answering the question. Maybe I did. For the record, and we may be quibbling over details, I never said it was progress (others might). I did indicate it wouldn't necessarily mean a decline because it is par for the course. I'd love to see 5 or 6 wins. That would be huge. But alas, I doubt it's in the cards this year.

So exactly how bad do we have to be this year to show regression?
 
Accurate. I don't remember any times where we've only had 2 or 3 wins - they just don't stick out; but I remember 0-11.......

Yeah, I acknowledged there is a stigma that goes with being winless. But the question is the state of the program, not the court of public opinion. This is Year 5. How much better is it, really, to go 3-7 as opposed to 0-10? Both records totally suck, right? At this stage of Champ's tenure, the program is in every bit as bad of shape at 3-7 as it is at 0-10.
 
So exactly how bad do we have to be this year to show regression?
Worse than last year. 3 conference wins in our division isn't worse than last year. We shouldn't be standing still, but it's better than marching backwards. I'm not defending Muschamp, again, it feels like we're quibbling over details. We both agree the Muschamp experiment is overdue for cancellation. Now we're arguing about whether he's as bad as we think or worse.
 
At least 2 opposing coaches don’t have to explain how they lost to an inferior opponent.
 
Worse than last year. 3 conference wins in our division isn't worse than last year. We shouldn't be standing still, but it's better than marching backwards. I'm not defending Muschamp, again, it feels like we're quibbling over details. We both agree the Muschamp experiment is overdue for cancellation. Now we're arguing about whether he's as bad as we think or worse.

My post is more geared towards how the program is going to be evaluated at the end of the season. Assume you're the AD of a P5 school and you sit down to evaluate your head football coach at the end of his 5th season. The last 3 seasons he has gone from 7 wins to 4 wins to 3 wins. Consistent regression. When you look at things on paper, would it really make much of a difference in your decision-making whether the final record was 0-10, 1-9, 2-8 or 3-7? I'm talking bottom line analysis here. You're just talking shades of suck at that point.

Say you decide to retain the coach. What's your public statement? How do you sell it to the fans that things are still on track and the coach is the right man for the job?

If the best argument is that we missed on a couple wins by not having teams like Charleston Southern on our schedule, that's pretty damning.
 
There's been lots of talk about what our final record could be. Consensus seems to be 2-8 or 3-7 (though 1-9 has gained steam in recent days). My question, though, is does it matter? How much different are those records than 0-10 in terms of where the program stands? Say we go 3-7, does that mean we are in substantively better shape than if we went 0-10? My opinion is, no. 3-7 is still terrible. Sure, 0-10 looks much worse and carries the "winless" stigma, but when you get right down to it, it's not that much different. By Year 5, we are solidly out of the rebuilding phase. Done. Over. This is fully Champ's team. We've gone from 9 wins, to 7 wins to 4 wins to, most likely, something less than that this season. In conference we've gone from 5 wins to 4 wins to 3 wins. We may get to 3 conference wins this year, but only because we're playing 2 extra conference games. If this was Champ's first year and he was taking over a winless team and took us to 3 wins, you'd say "ok, that's at least progress." But by Year 5, not the case. Covid has impacted a lot about the world, but it has no bearing on the product we've see on the field so far this year. Anything short of 5-5 this year shows further regression. When you've regressed from Year 2 to Year 3, Year 3 to Year 4 and Year 4 to Year 5, that's a pattern.

I'm fairly certain Champ doesn't go anywhere this year because of the financial impact of covid (though I think 1-9 or 0-10 forces a conversation), but when we come to the end of the year and are sitting at 2-8 or 3-7, what's the message going to be? It can't be that we're making progress. It can't be that we're moving in the right direction. So what exactly will it be? Ray gave us the old "I still believe in Coach Muschamp" speech last year. He can't think fans are dumb enough to fall for that 2 years in a row.

Can Ray, with a straight face, say that he has faith in Champ and his staff? Ray's hands may very well tied b/c of the financial hit from covid, but this would be the time for him to flex his muscle as AD and say something along the lines of "There's no denying that it was a disappointing year. We certainly expected more in Year 5, and we owe better to our fans. Coach Muschamp and I have talked about the direction of the program and what the expectations should be going forward."

The sad reality is that we likely will go something like 3-7 this year. Next year, we'll get to pad the schedule again with some creampuff teams so we'll probably pick up a couple extra wins to go 5-7 and the message will be "Hey, we were 3-7 last year and 5-7 this year, so we're moving in the right direction."
Substantively, what's the difference between 0-10 and 3-7 in Year 5?

About 3 wins... That was pretty easy man.
 
  • Haha
Reactions: paladin181
My post is more geared towards how the program is going to be evaluated at the end of the season. Assume you're the AD of a P5 school and you sit down to evaluate your head football coach at the end of his 5th season. The last 3 seasons he has gone from 7 wins to 4 wins to 3 wins. Consistent regression. When you look at things on paper, would it really make much of a difference in your decision-making whether the final record was 0-10, 1-9, 2-8 or 3-7? I'm talking bottom line analysis here. You're just talking shades of suck at that point.

If the best argument is that we missed on a couple wins by not having teams like Charleston Southern on our schedule, that's pretty damning.
Yes. Yes it is.

So to answer your original question: There is a WORLD of difference between 1-9 and 0-10. Huge difference. the difference between 1-9 and 3-7 is not so big. But definitely is a huge negative when you can't get ahead and put a game away at all. We may be headed towards that the way our team has looked almost afraid to actually win the games, but if you can't do it at all? That's a huge deficit and comes with a stink that doesn't wash out. It damages the psyches of the players and coaches, and hits recruiting harder. You want to separate public opinion from a clinical analysis, but you can't because public opinion affects recruiting and recruiting affects winning.
 
Yes. Yes it is.

So to answer your original question: There is a WORLD of difference between 1-9 and 0-10. Huge difference. the difference between 1-9 and 3-7 is not so big. But definitely is a huge negative when you can't get ahead and put a game away at all. We may be headed towards that the way our team has looked almost afraid to actually win the games, but if you can't do it at all? That's a huge deficit and comes with a stink that doesn't wash out. It damages the psyches of the players and coaches, and hits recruiting harder. You want to separate public opinion from a clinical analysis, but you can't because public opinion affects recruiting and recruiting affects winning.

That's why we'll always be mediocre. LSU cut ties with Les Miles, and he won 77% of his games there and had 5 top 10 finishes.

We will just never have that killer mentality. Our fans say they want it, but arguments that you're substantively better off as a program in a coach's 5th season at 3-7 than 0-10 prove otherwise. IMHO
 
  • Like
Reactions: uscnoklahoma2
That's why we'll always be mediocre. LSU cut ties with Les Miles, and he won 77% of his games there and had 5 top 10 finishes.

We will just never have that killer mentality. Our fans say they want it, but arguments that you're substantively better off as a program in a coach's 5th season at 3-7 than 0-10 prove otherwise. IMHO
Sorry that it bothers you that there is a real difference between winning games and not winning games. I'm not saying Muschamp should be retained. As I've said before, we are in the same place there unless we win 7 of our last 8. I fully agree that our situation with Muschamp doesn't change.

There is a huge difference between winning games and not winning games. That is just a simple fact. One has a huge negative impact, and the other much less so. A 3 win season can be recovered from, even seen as an anomaly. Since we are only playing conference games this year, we could even say it is treading water. It is a place where there was no positive or negative movement.

But a 0 win season means you had nothing. There were no teams you could out-play, that had an off day against you, no games where things just went your way and you did everything (or at least enough) right to carry the victory. If you've competed in organized sports, particularly football and been part of a winless team, you'll understand the difference. It is a wide chasm of space between having the ability to close out any one team and be better than them on that day than it is to lose every game, to never be able to rise above that threshold.
 
That's why we'll always be mediocre. LSU cut ties with Les Miles, and he won 77% of his games there and had 5 top 10 finishes.

We will just never have that killer mentality. Our fans say they want it, but arguments that you're substantively better off as a program in a coach's 5th season at 3-7 than 0-10 prove otherwise. IMHO
If you have 3 wins over 0 wins you're 3 games better. Whether that's a "substantive" difference is a matter of opinion. To me, it is. As bad as it would be for my Dawgs to have 3 wins, I'd take that every day over going winless.
 
My post is more geared towards how the program is going to be evaluated at the end of the season. Assume you're the AD of a P5 school and you sit down to evaluate your head football coach at the end of his 5th season. The last 3 seasons he has gone from 7 wins to 4 wins to 3 wins. Consistent regression. When you look at things on paper, would it really make much of a difference in your decision-making whether the final record was 0-10, 1-9, 2-8 or 3-7? I'm talking bottom line analysis here. You're just talking shades of suck at that point.

Say you decide to retain the coach. What's your public statement? How do you sell it to the fans that things are still on track and the coach is the right man for the job?

If the best argument is that we missed on a couple wins by not having teams like Charleston Southern on our schedule, that's pretty damning.
I don’t know that anyone can disagree with that but we aren’t dealing with an actual AD either. 3 wins this year is the same record in the SEC as last year and if those wins are against Kentucky and Missouri then at least you’ve shown you’re the best of the worst. Tanner has shown a willingness to go out and say things are moving in the right direction and I don’t think for him that is lip service. I really don’t think wins and losses are the deciding factor for Tanner and if Muschamp somehow stumbles into being 6-6 every year he’d be here as long as Tanner is the AD.
 
  • Angry
Reactions: paladin181
If you have 3 wins over 0 wins you're 3 games better. Whether that's a "substantive" difference is a matter of opinion. To me, it is. As bad as it would be for my Dawgs to have 3 wins, I'd take that every day over going winless.

Well, a UGA fan has no business weighing in on this. You can't even fathom going 3-7. Like LSU, you guys fired a coach who won 74% of his games and went 9-4 in bowl games. Y'all said "9 and 10 win seasons aren't good enough." We're over here having to quibble about the relevance of scratching out 3 wins. It just shows how laughable the difference is between us and the top dogs. For frick's sake, Smart has gone 44-12 and there were already rumblings about how the offense has operated under him.

Y'all just don't put up with the sh*t. We can't even remotely comprehend that mentality here. We distinguish between shades of suck.
 
  • Like
Reactions: paladin181
I think Coastal might’ve beat us Dizzy01. Of course I didn’t think that when we first schedule them.
I’m interested in seeing how they do against LaTech Saturday. They’ve been scoring points this year for sure and this game was moved due to LaTech needing a schedule adjustment which means they may not be as prepped.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Brace1
Well, a UGA fan has no business weighing in on this. You can't even fathom going 3-7. Like LSU, you guys fired a coach who won 74% of his games and went 9-4 in bowl games. Y'all said "9 and 10 win seasons aren't good enough." We're over here having to quibble about the relevance of scratching out 3 wins. It just shows how laughable the difference is between us and the top dogs. For frick's sake, Smart has gone 44-12 and there were already rumblings about how the offense has operated under him.

Y'all just don't put up with the sh*t. We can't even remotely comprehend that mentality here. We distinguish between shades of suck.
I'm not sure where you got the idea I think SC fans should be okay with 3 wins. Of course they shouldn't be content with that. I'm merely suggesting that there is a world of difference between the perceptions of a 3 win team vs. a 0 win team. If you think zero wins this year for SC would be no different than no wins this year, who am I tell you you're wrong. I just don't see it that way.
 
Which of the two extra games between LSU and Ole Miss are going to add to our win total? If we go 3-7, we'll have 7 conference losses, but only because we play extra conference games.
Ole miss only won 4 games last year So I say them
 
If we win 3 games this year it could be argued that would translate to a 6 win season. Our original OOC schedule this year was pretty favorable.
I think so too. 3 wins gets him back with a "way to go guy" from RT.

0-10, or even 1-9, gets problematic.
 
SUBSTANTIVELY.....3-7 we keep the same Coach....UUUUUUUUGE diff against 0-10 where we get a whole new staff....bank it.
 
0 wins is an absolute embarrassment and would be a complete travesty considering how we pulled ourselves out of the same pit in 1999. So, yeah, 3-7 is a lot better.

However, for Muschamp there shouldn’t be a difference as he should be canned with either win total.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Brace1
ADVERTISEMENT
ADVERTISEMENT