Down 7 with a few minutes to play. Forth down and a few. Decided to kick a field goal. Why not go for it. It you don't make, Tenn. is backed up, you still have your time outs left instead of giving them yardage down the field. If you stop them, you get the ball back. Might have made the first down.
The right decision:
- Thread starter lexus2015
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and if we scored, go for two! still had time to get the ball back. PLAY TO WIN!!!
What a stupid, stupid, stupid way to lose a game
Already being discussed in this thread.....
Agree, but it was more than a “few” yards. 12 i think. 4th and 12 is a low probability. He should have gone for it b/c at the end of the day he still had to go score the TD anyways.
The real question is why such a stupid call on 3rd down!
Then the decision to kick the field goal wasn't stupid. It was borderline because of the time remaining, but on the whole, it wasn't stupid.
I was fine with the field goal. White is automatic from 45 in. Defense had proven they could stop them and did at the end. ST messed up.
I wouldn’t use the word stupid, but i think there was only 4-5 minutes left and the FG wasn’t going to change anything, we were still going to have to come back and score a TD. So go for it.
4th and 12 with just under 4 mins to go and still have your 3 TOs. Muschamp did the right thing. Good lord people ,you dont have to disagree with Muschamp just because its Muschamp. Dang
Obviously he didn’t do the right thing! We lost the game and taking the field goal didn’t work!
Well, yeah I can tell you last night lottery numbers if you want them . We would have got the ball with 1:20 something left.
Bingo. We needed the stop we got, and once we then (theoretically alas) got the ball back they were going to lay back, perfect for the deep slants we had been hitting in some space. We were set up pretty; that field goal would have been the winning dinger. But special teams, as you say.
We lost the game but I friggin liked what I saw for the most part. UT got away with more no calls than they should have, got lucky a time or two including at the end, but I saw that as a big time learning game for us. I like Hill, and despite the result that’s a team that believes in itself, which was NOT the case last year.
I contend that going 75 yards for a TD with 1:30 left and no timeouts is no less risky than going for a first down on 4th and 12 from Tn 39 yard line. We should have gone for the first down and not the field goall
At that point we had all our timeouts remaining and would not have had to burn them all had we stopped them on the first series of downs. Instead, we gave up eight yards on first down and had to start calling timeouts when they got the first down. But facing fourth and 12 and a reasonable chance of getting the ball back with a stop and having a timeout or two left, you take the points.
Expected points and win probability say a field goal attempt there was very much the wrong decision.
In general, the likelihood you covert that 4th and 12 is around 25 percent. If you do that, you’re in the red zone. We don’t know exactly what this Carolina team will be as a red zone offense, but teams typically turn red zone possessions into touchdowns around 60 percent of the time on average. So, you’re looking at around a 15 percent touchdown outcome by going for it.
Play it out the other way. Tennessee had gone 3 and out on just 33 percent of their possessions in the game. Let’s say they make that stop, and get the ball back around the 25 yard line. You’re looking at around a 20 percent chance that drive ends in a touchdown. In other words, only about a 7 percent chance you get a touchdown in that scenario. Never mind, Parker White has hit only 55 percent of his field goals between 40-49 yards in his career, which adds yet another element of making this a dubious decision.
Agree to disagree, the 3 points don’t matter, you had to have a touchdown. TN had been moving the ball consistently. Thinking you were going to get a 3 and out was a bigger gamble.
This isn’t some fluke brain fart on Muschamps part, that’s why people are upset. The guy invents ways to piss away a victory, never seen anything like it in my life . He’s lost just about every way you could lose except last second wins and I’m sure that’ll be coming shortly.
Not any bigger than thinking you're going to pick up fourth and 12. At least we set up the possibility of winning the game in regulation, which our defense and special teams promptly blew. No one knows for certain if we would have gotten a touchdown even had we picked up the first down. I appreciate your adept use of hindsight, but have no problem with the decision that was made. We had our chances.
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I tend to agree with castle. Your first and foremost objective is to score TD. Take the 3 if down by 6 but not 7. You can’t worry about the other factors at this juncture of the game. Which option gives you the best chance of scoring that all important touchdown? Maybe you think it’s going 75 yards with no timeouts. Maybe it is but I don’t. Also what’s wrong w overtime— didn’t have to be winning in regulation ?
The fact you guys are still discussing it a day later and still don't agree says a lot. Muschamp had about 10 seconds to make a decision. We lost get over it. The guys played well for a first game. Much better than first games I have seen in the past from any of our previous coaches and with much less talent I might add.
You take the points. White had kicked well and the defense was making more stops. I don’t think any coach,under the circumstances would have gone for it on fourth and twelve
It wasn't stupid. Stats say it was the right decision. My issue is always needing to come back. We simply can't ever be in control of any game except Vandy. And we never seem to be playing to win. Always making the defensive call. I guess that's the mentality of a defensive coach. BTW, his defense should look much better.
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He’s a really weird coach. He obviously doesn’t pay much attention to down/distance/situation probabilities and expected point outcomes. You listen to him talk and he’s one of those old school, don’t tell me the odds guys. But then he gets fascinated with some of these random trends. Like when everyone started to talk about hitting a certain percentage of explosive plays to overcome a lack of consistency— he would take about it in every interview for two years. And then it was number of snaps per game and running various formations from the same personnel groupings. Now it’s efficiently and time of possession, I guess.
On more manageable yardage and/or with less time on the clock, I would agree. It's related to the same doctrine that governs defensive penalties on made field goal attempts, even when a team is near the end zone. Seldom does a coach take three off the board to get another crack at seven. In this case, if you have a reasonable chance of getting the ball back with time to operate and are facing fourth and long yardage, I see nothing wrong with kicking the field goal. I guess I'm fortunate in the fact that being in the minority won't keep me awake tonight
. Also, I watched Holtz and those lose a big game up at Tennessee in OT that we could have won in regulation. We got our first punt blocked, which resulted in going down 7-0 in the first two minutes to a Top 10 team on the road. Then Demetris Summers showed out in the first half but Colquitt kept us on a long field all night long. That was also the loss in whch Strong's defense gave up third and 23 or something. It was a wrenching loss. I guess it stayed with me. It had program-changing potential. But we were done after 60 minutes. We had nothing in OT. Like I said, it stays with you.
Nope. Tired of getting over losing. It's about time we STOP LOSING. If you don't think so, something's wrong. In CFB there is only winning and losing. You can tell what direction a team is by their streak. We're losers until we win.
If we’re talking statistic probability I’d like to see a stat of the times one of Muschamps CAROLINA teams has driven 75 yards (the most likely distance even without them gaining 8 yards on first down) and scored a TD with less than 3 minutes and no timeouts. Roll the dice Muschamp and go for a win! If you don’t get it you are in Virtually the same position that you were in after the field goal. Would Leach or Spurrier kicked a field goal?
A number of wrong ideas here.
1. The math is already done for you, or should be. Just have a coach tell you the expected outcomes of the two decisions. Muschamp shouldn’t be sorting this out in his head in 10 seconds, unless his preparation is completely devoid of situation analysis— which it may be, but shouldn’t be. Would be really sad if he didn’t know he was roughly cutting his chances to win in half with that decision. I’d like to think he knew that, but played it by his gut.
2. South Carolina has played great in opening games. They’ve only loss three opening games since 2003. Two of losses come from Muschamp.
Stop and think about how silly you sound. Do you think anyone wants to lose? These guys work their ass off and you think they are fine with losing? You don't just snap your fingers and win. If it were that easy you would have about 100 other programs out there winning on a regular basis.
There is no right or wrong. He did what he felt best. If things had gone our way and we had won then you and the rest would be on here praising him today. The constant bashing just sounds petty and gets old. If he continues to lose he will eventually get let go but to continue bitching won't solve a thing.
Given the statistic probability of a BOOM! coached team winning a game on a last second score, going for it starts to look like a a lot better option. I ask myself WWHBCD? (what would HBC do?) Honestly, he would kick the FG. But he would also be in control of a better percentage of games than BOOM! is. He would find himself in this position less often. He would also dial up some better "ballplays" knowing his team's capabilities and opponents' tendencies. And, before you tell me he had better recruits than BOOM! has, I'd like to say you're absolutely correct and that's not OK for a guy who can sell popsicles to Eskimos. I don't care who your recruits are, they can be trained to get out of the way of the ball on a fair catch and to shut their mouths when flirting with penalties. If they can't be trained, that's another coaching failing.
I don't think they can snap their fingers and win. I do think they can hold a block, fill their gap, be in the right place, not run their mouths in lieu of playing well and avoid stupid penalties. I guess you find that assessment unreasonable. If no one holds the team to a better standard it won't just occur.
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We won TOP last night (or we were winning last time they displayed the stats on the scoreboard), but yet Tennessee was killing us on rushing yards and they kept the lead the majority of the game. It’s almost like he can’t see what’s going on during the game, but after the game he has some reflection about what went wrong. All I can think is “it was going wrong the whole game, how are you just now finding out about this?”
Driving the field 80 yds to score in a 1:30 is less of a gamble than 4th and 12 from the 39? You have two opportunities to get a TD. Go for it and either get the first down or turn the ball over at the 39. With the FG, you run the risk of a miss and giving it to them at the 39 (no difference) or scoring and giving it them the ball on the 25. The 3 points don't matter. you will still be down 4 and need to score a TD. You lose 14 yards. That is the only risk, 14 yards. You still have to stop them and get the ball back and drive the length of the field in either scenario that doesn't get you the first down.
Why people can't see this is baffling to me.
I’ll say again, under the circumstances (fourth and 12) I don’t believe any coach would have gone for it
you would be wrong. Simply b/c you don't lose anything more than 14 yds. and only if you hit the field goal. Which isn't a gimme at that distance.
Some people seem to think it is either 1) go for it and take your opportunity there or 2) kick a field goal and have the opportunity to kick off and pen them deep. It didn't have to be one or the other, it could have been both.
You could go for it and not make it and still put your D out there to stop them from driving the field from the 39. or make the field goal (which does you no good) Kick off and have them start at the 25. The likely difference between turning it over on downs and kicking the ball off after a maid field goal was 14 yds.
In either scenario the Defense was going to take the field with roughly the same amount of time only 14 yards apart.
My way, you get one crack to get a first down. Anything could happen to get you that first down, PI, roughing, or make the play. If you don't get it, the D comes out and holds them with 6 less seconds on the clock.
It really is a no brainer.
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