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The right decision:

Honestly, there have been some dumb calls under this regime, but this wasn’t one of them, and 3 minutes is a ton of time in football. You get the sure points, and plan to get the ball back (with 0 points scored by them which did happen), and obviously getting the ball back almost happened until a terrible ST play. It’s a much greater chance that you get no first down and no points, than a guy touching the ball who shouldn’t have been anywhere near it. Anything other than a clear fair catch, and everyone including the PR get away from the ball, and we were moving the ball pretty well on that previous drive.
 
and if we scored, go for two! still had time to get the ball back. PLAY TO WIN!!!
That is the opposite of playing to win if you plan to get the ball back. Muschamp betted on his defense to stop UT, get the ball back and score. We did the first part, stopped UT, we just didn't get the ball back. Kicking the fg with the belief that you will stop them is playing to win. How don't y'all see that.


If we don't get 4th n 12 we still have to score a TD to tie the game at worst. Kicking the fg makes that same TD the game winning td.
 
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Honestly, there have been some dumb calls under this regime, but this wasn’t one of them, and 3 minutes is a ton of time in football. You get the sure points, and plan to get the ball back (with 0 points scored by them which did happen), and obviously getting the ball back almost happened until a terrible ST play. It’s a much greater chance that you get no first down and no points, than a guy touching the ball who shouldn’t have been anywhere near it. Anything other than a clear fair catch, and everyone including the PR get away from the ball, and we were moving the ball pretty well on that previous drive.
Well said, they didn't stop us, we stopped ourselves the second half, we opened the 4th qt up with consecutive plays of 15, 6, 13 + 15 yard penalty, 13, 11 then an incompletion. Then moved the ball on the next drive until a false start then a dropped pass that would have been a 1st. I know alot of ppl hate Muschamp and where the program is currently, but it ain't like we are far away, including winning that game.
 
Well said, they didn't stop us, we stopped ourselves the second half, we opened the 4th qt up with consecutive plays of 15, 6, 13 + 15 yard penalty, 13, 11 then an incompletion. Then moved the ball on the next drive until a false start then a dropped pass that would have been a 1st. I know alot of ppl hate Muschamp and where the program is currently, but it ain't like we are far away, including winning that game.
It boils down to, do you want your coach playing for overtime or going for the win? I want my coach going for the win
 
It boils down to, do you want your coach playing for overtime or going for the win? I want my coach going for the win

This is just sad. This entire discussion demonstrates people’s inability to think logically. No wonder we ended up with Muschamp— who is a loser and played this game to lose.

The only way to play that game to win is to maximize your chance to score a touchdown in regulation. That’s it. If you don’t score a touchdown in regulation, you lose. Muschamp’s best chance to score a touchdown was by going for it on forth down. Moreover, the risk associated with going for it was low. This is indisputable. It’s common sense. It’s backed up fully by all commonly accepted expected point formulas, win probabilities, etc.
 
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This is just sad. This entire discussion demonstrates people’s inability to think logically. No wonder we ended up with Muschamp— who is a loser and played this game to lose.

The only way to play that game to win is to maximize your chance to score a touchdown in regulation. That’s it. If you don’t score a touchdown in regulation, you lose. Muschamp’s best chance to score a touchdown was by going for it on forth down. Moreover, the risk associated with going for it was low. This is indisputable. It’s common sense. It’s backed up fully by all commonly accepted expected point formulas, win probabilities, etc.
What's the probability of getting a first down on 4th n 12...it less than 33% and throw in the fact that zero defensive penalties where called for holding or PI and it reduces to less than 20%. So if we don't get the football we are in the same exact position needing a td to at least tie the game. Kicking the fg which is a higher % of getting points now makes that same TD as before the winning td.
 
What's the probability of getting a first down on 4th n 12...it less than 33% and throw in the fact that zero defensive penalties where called for holding or PI and it reduces to less than 20%. So if we don't get the football we are in the same exact position needing a td to at least tie the game. Kicking the fg which is a higher % of getting points now makes that same TD as before the winning td.

I’ve already posted this... in this thread. But here it is again. And the below isn’t even factoring in going for it gives you two shots at a touchdown, as opposed to just one— which makes Muschamp’s decision all the more silly.

In general, the likelihood you covert that 4th and 12 is around 25 percent. If you do that, you’re in the red zone. We don’t know exactly what this Carolina team will be as a red zone offense, but teams typically turn red zone possessions into touchdowns around 60 percent of the time on average. So, you’re looking at around a 15 percent touchdown outcome by going for it.

Play it out the other way. Tennessee had gone 3 and out on just 33 percent of their possessions in the game. Let’s say they make that stop, and get the ball back around the 25 yard line. You’re looking at around a 20 percent chance that drive ends in a touchdown. In other words, only about a 7 percent chance you get a touchdown in that scenario. Never mind, Parker White has hit only 55 percent of his field goals between 40-49 yards in his career, which adds yet another element of making this a dubious decision.
 
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Down 7 with a few minutes to play. Forth down and a few. Decided to kick a field goal. Why not go for it. It you don't make, Tenn. is backed up, you still have your time outs left instead of giving them yardage down the field. If you stop them, you get the ball back. Might have made the first down.
Far too much thought process there, Pard!
 
I’ve already posted this... in this thread. But here it is again. And the below isn’t even factoring in going for it gives you two shots at a touchdown, as opposed to just one— which makes Muschamp’s decision all the more silly.

In general, the likelihood you covert that 4th and 12 is around 25 percent. If you do that, you’re in the red zone. We don’t know exactly what this Carolina team will be as a red zone offense, but teams typically turn red zone possessions into touchdowns around 60 percent of the time on average. So, you’re looking at around a 15 percent touchdown outcome by going for it.

Play it out the other way. Tennessee had gone 3 and out on just 33 percent of their possessions in the game. Let’s say they make that stop, and get the ball back around the 25 yard line. You’re looking at around a 20 percent chance that drive ends in a touchdown. In other words, only about a 7 percent chance you get a touchdown in that scenario. Never mind, Parker White has hit only 55 percent of his field goals between 40-49 yards in his career, which adds yet another element of making this a dubious decision.
Time remaining.
 
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