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Thoughts previewing Clemson, keys to victory

C

Collyn Taylor

Guest
South Carolina (8-2) plays at Clemson (7-4) at 6 p.m. Saturday with tipoff scheduled for the ACC Network.

Thoughts on South Carolina

This game was going to be tough regardless on the road against a good Clemson team but became that much harder with COVID and other injuries rearing their heads. South Carolina will be without AJ Wilson (knee) and likely Jermaine Couisnard (ankle) and at least four other players out with COVID.

I’ll start here: no, I don’t have a complete list of guys who are going to be out with COVID. Martin didn’t share those details and that will be revealed soon enough before the game starts.

The point guard position will continue to be thin if Couisnard doesn’t play and one of the four is Jacobi Wright or Chico Carter.

To put things into perspective on how thin things are right now, Keyshawn Bryant is starting at the power forward, a spot South Carolina was reluctant to play him at because the Gamecocks had size up front. With Wilson, and potentially a few other bigs out with COVID, it forces Bryant to have to play there.

I think it also helps South Carolina in this match up because Clemson likes to play a lot of four-out and Bryant guards better in space than other bigs.

Saturday is going to be a big test for the Gamecocks’ depth and will say a lot about this team if they do ultimately win.

South Carolina’s offense has done just enough this year and will need to put up some points if it wants to win Saturday night.

Scouting Clemson

The Tigers are one of the best offensive teams in the country but don’t have a win over a KenPom top 50 team yet. Their best win came a week ago against No. 90 Drake. They’ve lost to four teams so far—St. Bonaventure (No. 49 KenPom), West Virginia (44), Rutgers (102) and Miami (97)—but haven’t lost at home yet.

Their offensive efficiency (111 points per 100 possessions) is top 25 nationally and the effective field goal percentage of 57 is eight-best nationally. The Tigers are the second best three-point shooting team in the country hitting 43.2 percent.

PJ Hall is one of Clemson’s better players but they’re getting good minutes from small forward David Collins and point guard fourth-year (second in the program) point guard Nick Honor.

The Tigers are No. 48 in KenPom and South Carolina is given a 25 percent chance to win with a final predicted score of 74-66 Clemson.

Numbers to know

44 and 57—These are the effective field goal percentage when Clemson has the ball, both of which are top 30 nationally. South Carolina is holding opponents to an eFG of 44 while Clemson is top 10 with an effective field goal percentage of 57. If the Gamecocks are going to slow Clemson down, they’re going to have to force bad shots.

36.3 and 25.8—These are the offensive rebound rates when the Gamecocks are on offense. South Carolina is one of the better offensive rebounding teams nationally (top 25), rebounding 36.3 percent of misses. Clemson is just above average allowing teams to rebound 25.8. The Gamecocks will have to get offensive boards and steal possessions to keep Clemson on that end of the court.

6.2 and 7.0—South Carolina is only getting 6.2 percent of its shots blocked while Clemson is only blocking seven percent of shots against. That means the Gamecocks will have some looks at the rim they can, and will need to, take advantage of .

Keys to victory

Don’t foul—The Gamecocks are near the bottom nationally in free throw rate, meaning opponents are getting to the line quite a bit against them. In any game, that means a lot but Saturday it means just that much more. Down to a very thin bench, South Carolina can’t afford to get in foul trouble. The Gamecocks got down big and in foul trouble against Florida State and can’t have that happen against the Tigers.

Force the ball inside—Clemson love shooting threes (38.2 percent of shots taken are from deep) so it’ll be up to South Carolina to play good perimeter defense and make Clemson deviate from its bread and butter. Then, rely on the play of hopefully Wildens Leveque and Keyshawn Bryant to make plays.

Get to the rim—Clemson doesn’t block a lot of shots and also doesn’t play a lot of bench minutes with starters getting nearly 73 percent of available minutes. South Carolina loves to get the ball inside (55.6 percent of points come inside the three-point line). Getting inside and to the rim will help create more efficient offense, could get South Carolina to the line more and potentially get Clemson in foul trouble.
 
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