USC is currently #108 in NET and moved up only 5 spots with the wins over Georgia and Vanderbilt. As we've seen with moves in the Big East (Marquette, Creighton, etc.), a couple road Quad 1 wins can move a team up 20/30 spots. Tonight's game will is critical if there is any hope of igniting the small chance this team can go anywhere.
SEC Wins v. SEC Losses
The easiest comparison for USC's SEC record is as simple as 0-3 v. Quad 1 and 2-0 v. Quad 3-4 (1-1 v. Quad 2). So, if it's as simple as the only reason Carolina won games was because of talent comparison then we all can expect USC to finish the SEC at 5-13 and none of this matters.
However, a deeper look at the numbers show two major categories that has been the difference in the SEC -- Points in the Paint and Second Chance Points.
--In the 4 losses, Carolina loses this PiP category by 14.5 points. In the 3 wins, Carolina wins this category by 7.3 points.
--Similarly, USC is +18 in second chance points during the wins (note: also limited Georgia to 0 second chance points) and won that category every time.
Texas A&M has played in a lot of close games and their statistics tend to be all over the place but there a couple of things that stick out for them
--In the 4 wins, A&M is +30 in points off of turnovers and in the losses -16 in second chance points.
How will it play out?
So, if it's not just talent alone, it's not going to come down to 3-pointers or fouls or tempo but is going be determined on whether USC can not turn the ball over and continue to hit the offensive boards. I think my personal favorite AJ Wilson can be difference with his team leading offensive rebounding and turnover percentage (5% to Keyshawn Bryant's 20%). Combine this with the better play from Gray (now #1 in defensive rebounding percentage) and Woodley (#1 in true shooting percentage) and Carolina can win this game with the bigs. We'll have to see if Frank's hatred of analytics will lead him to depend on Bryant's perceived offensive explosiveness hoping for a Georgia repeat v. the demonstrated (but bland) board domination the other players provide.
Frank v. Buzz
In Buzz's tenure at Texas A&M, USC in 3-0 and won by 14, 20 and 24. Could this be an instance where Frank has Buzz's number?
Final Note: Coach Steele
Again, Brian Steele had the game planning duties against Vanderbilt. For most of the game, he sat quietly and moved to coach-up subbed out players. During the second half at the under 12:00 timeout, I could see Steele grab every one around and feverously work on the whiteboard with team. From this point, the USC zone defense and an offense built on attacking Scottie Pippen, Jr., vaulted the Gamecocks from -8 to a 9-point win. Also, Steele was just as active, moving and shouting, coaxing the team to clean up the offensive boards. I've been impressed what I've seen out of him this year and the team seems to respond to him (of note: Stevenson tried to fist bump Frank and as Frank blew him off, Steele reached around and bumped Stevenson -- this all may have been part of an inside joke but it was an interesting look).
I don't know if it's becoming a plan to play heads-up for 28-30 minutes and then dramatically change the offense and defense for the rest of the game.
SEC Wins v. SEC Losses
The easiest comparison for USC's SEC record is as simple as 0-3 v. Quad 1 and 2-0 v. Quad 3-4 (1-1 v. Quad 2). So, if it's as simple as the only reason Carolina won games was because of talent comparison then we all can expect USC to finish the SEC at 5-13 and none of this matters.
However, a deeper look at the numbers show two major categories that has been the difference in the SEC -- Points in the Paint and Second Chance Points.
--In the 4 losses, Carolina loses this PiP category by 14.5 points. In the 3 wins, Carolina wins this category by 7.3 points.
--Similarly, USC is +18 in second chance points during the wins (note: also limited Georgia to 0 second chance points) and won that category every time.
Texas A&M has played in a lot of close games and their statistics tend to be all over the place but there a couple of things that stick out for them
--In the 4 wins, A&M is +30 in points off of turnovers and in the losses -16 in second chance points.
How will it play out?
So, if it's not just talent alone, it's not going to come down to 3-pointers or fouls or tempo but is going be determined on whether USC can not turn the ball over and continue to hit the offensive boards. I think my personal favorite AJ Wilson can be difference with his team leading offensive rebounding and turnover percentage (5% to Keyshawn Bryant's 20%). Combine this with the better play from Gray (now #1 in defensive rebounding percentage) and Woodley (#1 in true shooting percentage) and Carolina can win this game with the bigs. We'll have to see if Frank's hatred of analytics will lead him to depend on Bryant's perceived offensive explosiveness hoping for a Georgia repeat v. the demonstrated (but bland) board domination the other players provide.
Frank v. Buzz
In Buzz's tenure at Texas A&M, USC in 3-0 and won by 14, 20 and 24. Could this be an instance where Frank has Buzz's number?
Final Note: Coach Steele
Again, Brian Steele had the game planning duties against Vanderbilt. For most of the game, he sat quietly and moved to coach-up subbed out players. During the second half at the under 12:00 timeout, I could see Steele grab every one around and feverously work on the whiteboard with team. From this point, the USC zone defense and an offense built on attacking Scottie Pippen, Jr., vaulted the Gamecocks from -8 to a 9-point win. Also, Steele was just as active, moving and shouting, coaxing the team to clean up the offensive boards. I've been impressed what I've seen out of him this year and the team seems to respond to him (of note: Stevenson tried to fist bump Frank and as Frank blew him off, Steele reached around and bumped Stevenson -- this all may have been part of an inside joke but it was an interesting look).
I don't know if it's becoming a plan to play heads-up for 28-30 minutes and then dramatically change the offense and defense for the rest of the game.