5 Keys to Victory
1). Win the big play – Missouri’s defense was one of the worst defense’s in the country last year at giving up the big play. That trend carried over to last week when Missouri gave up big plays to Missouri State. Missouri State had three scoring plays of over 30 yards last week against Missouri’s defense. I believe I saw a stat during that game that Missouri’s defense was either third or fourth worst in the country last year at giving up plays of over 30 yards. After one game this season, it doesn’t look like they have fixed that trend. Jake Bentley, Rico Dowdle and company need to hit some big ones against this Missouri defense.
On the other side of the ball, Missouri’s offense can hit the big play through the air or on the ground. South Carolina’s defense needs to force Missouri to prove they can move the ball methodically down the field. If they force them to do this, then Missouri could turn the ball over, something Drew Lock did last year in Columbia, South Carolina.
2). Establish the running game – If you had to pick something to be disappointed about from last week’s win over NC State, then it might be the lack of running game for South Carolina. I think that has to change this week. I look at last year’s game and Rico Dowdle finished with a really good game. The thing I remember about his performance, besides the ridiculous spin move, was how he got better in the second half. South Carolina needs a similar performance this week from Dowdle and the rest of the running backs. South Carolina finished with 174 yards on the ground last year against Missouri. I think they need to get over 200 this year.
Missouri State’s starting running back was able to run for 124 yards last week on only 11 carries. Missouri’s run defense last year was bad. They have given us no reason to believe that they are that much improved in that area right now. This is the perfect week for South Carolina’s offensive line to open up some holes and get the ground game going. I will say that one of my predictions this week is for Dowdle to have a huge game.
3). Bentley over Lock - The game last year was in the other Columbia but Jake Bentely outperformed Drew Lock. I believe something similar needs to happen this year as well. Bentley hasn’t been great on the road in his limited action and this is his chance to prove that he has taken that next step and is ready to lead this team. He was accurate and made good decisions last year against this defense. He needs to do the same Saturday night.
Lock didn’t have his best game last year against South Carolina’s defense. If you remember, Chris Lammons got ejected in this game in the first half last year. South Carolina was without one of their top defensive backs for most of the game. Lock still turned the ball over twice and was barely over 55-percent throwing the ball. South Carolina’s defense looks improved this year and they need to rattle Lock much like they did last year. This game could come down to which quarterback turns the ball over the most. Bentley can’t be that guy if South Carolina wants to win on the road.
4). Tackle in the secondary – The biggest concern I have with South Carolina entering this game is their secondary matched up against Missouri’s receivers. J’Mon Moore is a big receiver and is a big play threat. He has went over 100 yards receiving in four straight games dating back to last season. Johnathon Johnson is a smaller receiver and is also a big play threat. These two guys should get plenty of touches Saturday night and South Carolina is going to have to limit them. I saw a lot of plays last week for Missouri where they turned a simple five-yard hitch or quick bubble screen into a huge play. The tackling in the secondary is going to have to be good. Missouri will take shots deep but the quick pass plays are my biggest concern for the defense going into this game.
5). DL keeps progressing – The defensive line for South Carolina played pretty well last week. They played better than I gave them credit for right after the game ended. Taylor Stallworth was really good against the run against NC State and South Carolina needs that type of performance again this week. Missouri likes the inside run with Damarea Crocket. He is really dangerous when he gets to the second level. Stallworth is South Carolina’s best against the run and he needs to lead this defensive line Saturday night against the run. The defensive line as a whole was really good last week against NC State against the run and they need a repeat performance.
Another thing South Carolina had success with last year against Missouri was pressuring Lock. They were able to get to him a couple times last year and they will need to rattle him again this year. D.J. Wonnum, Dante Sawyer, Keir Thomas, and Bryson Allen-Williams need to be active Saturday night and make Lock hit the ground several times.
After Further Review
This is a new segment this year. I always go back and watch the replay of the game and I see things that I didn’t see live before I type up the Instant Analysis piece that I do after every game. I want to mention some things that I didn’t mention in that article. There are times where I go back and watch the replay and realize that I was wrong. This is where I will correct myself.
1). I was harder on the defensive line than I should have been right after the game. The first half wasn’t perfect for the defensive line but they weren’t as bad as I thought originally. They did a good job against the run the whole game. I think there was one drive in the second half where NC State was able to get some things going with the run game. Other than that, it was really good. I didn’t mention Taylor Stallworth at all in my article and I should have. He had a really good game against the run, which shouldn’t be surprising. I did mention D.J. Wonnum, Dante Sawyer, and Keir Thomas. I still think Wonnum and Sawyer had really good games. Thomas made a big impact in the third quarter. The third quarter was when the defensive line was really good. I would say they were dominant during that stretch.
2). What might have been my biggest mistake was not mentioning T.J. Brunson at all. Brunson led the defense in tackles. He has the look of an SEC linebacker with pads on. He was active against NC State. He was always around the ball. He was good against the run. He was impressive.
3). I think the forgotten play in the game was actually made by Deebo Samuel. Samuel, obviously, was great. The play I’m talking about was on South Carolina’s first offensive drive of the game. Jake Bentley tried to hit Samuel deep and it should have been an easy interception for NC State. Samuel became a defensive back on the play and forced the NC State defender to lose the ball going to the ground. The game was a 7-7 tie at the time and who knows what happens if NC State gets the ball back right there.
4). Jamyest Williams played better than I thought after watching it live. He did miss a tackle early in the game on a third and long that allowed NC State to continue a drive they scored a touchdown on. He did have tight coverage on the plays he was involved in. The NC State quarterback made some really good throws against him. He was also covering NC State’s best receiver a good bit.
SEC Power Rankings
1). Alabama: The defense lost a lot of talent last year but it didn’t show against Florida State Saturday night. They only gave up 40 yards rushing to a really good Florida State team. The offense needs to be better but it was an impressive week one win for Bama.
2). LSU: A complete domination of BYU. LSU outgained BYU 479-97 last week. BYU had -5 yards rushing. The only bad thing I can say about LSU is they had ten penalties.
3). Auburn: Auburn dominated Georgia Southern but did have three turnovers. The real test is this week for Auburn as they travel to Clemson.
4). Georgia: A lot of people thought Georgia might struggle with App State, including me. The game was over in the third quarter. Now the question is what Georgia’s new quarterback will look like against Notre Dame.
5). South Carolina: The Gamecocks got an impressive win over NC State, who was a trendy pick in the ACC this year. The defense looks improved and the offense looks like they should be able to score some points this year.
6). Tennessee: The Vols probably didn’t deserve to win the game against Georgia Tech but a win is a win, especially in week one. It will be interesting to see what that defense looks like against an offense that isn’t a triple option.
7). Mississippi State: It was just Charleston Southern but Mississippi State did what they were supposed to do. Mississippi State is my dark horse this year in the SEC.
8). Arkansas: We will all find out how good Arkansas is this week against TCU. They easily beat Florida A&M last week.
9). Kentucky: I thought Southern Miss would be a dangerous game for Kentucky but they survived. It wasn’t pretty but Kentucky should be 2-0 going into Columbia in week three.
10). Ole Miss: The Rebels pulled away from South Alabama in the third quarter. I still think it will be a tough year for Ole Miss but they are off to a solid start.
11). Vanderbilt: Another trendy pick of an upset in the SEC was Vanderbilt and Middle Tennessee State. Vanderbilt started fast and never looked back last week. Kyle Shurmur threw for 296 yards, three touchdowns, and zero interceptions. They looked dangerous.
12). Florida: I’m sure the Gators will move up this list quickly but it was a very uninspiring effort out of Florida against Michigan. The offense couldn’t move the ball and the defense wasn’t much better. It would have been really ugly if Michigan’s quarterback wouldn’t have thrown two interceptions that Florida returned for a touchdown. I’m not ready to count Florida out in the SEC East but they look like they have a long ways to go.
13). Texas A&M: Kevin Sumlin is in trouble. I was ready to complement A&M’s offensive line and their running game at halftime but then the meltdown happened. That was a devastating loss for Sumlin.
14). Missouri: The offense looked really good but the defense doesn’t look improved from last year when they were one of the worst groups in the SEC. Giving up 43 points and 492 total yards to a Missouri State team is not a good sign.
Big Game Predictions
It was a rough start to the season for me last week. I went 13-5 overall and 11-2 in SEC games. I did miss on the South Carolina game so I’m 0-1 on the Gamecocks.
Oklahoma @ Ohio State
Baker Mayfield was as close to perfect as you can get last week as a quarterback in Oklahoma’s opener. I’m sure he remembers last year’s game against Ohio State pretty well. I’m tempted to pick Oklahoma just because I do think they have an advantage at quarterback and I like Mayfield. Ohio State’s defensive line is really good and I think they will eventually put enough pressure on Mayfield to force some mistakes. I also think Ohio State has the coaching advantage. It will be closer than last year, but Ohio State wins.
Pick: Ohio State 33 Oklahoma 27
Auburn @ Clemson
With the loss that Florida State suffered last week at the quarterback position, Auburn might be the toughest opponent Clemson plays this season. Auburn’s offense gets talked about a lot but it is the defense that could make this team really good. If you look back to when these two played last season, Auburn’s defense played really well against Clemson’s offense. I think that will continue in this game. I believe they are talented enough to force Kelly Bryant to prove he can beat them with his arm. On the other side of the ball, I trust Auburn quarterback Jarrett Stidham more than I do Bryant. Those two reasons are why I’m picking the upset.
Pick: Auburn 23 Clemson 17
Georgia @ Notre Dame
I think this is a game between two teams we don’t know a lot about right now. They both played well last week and beat teams that some thought they might struggle with. Georgia will be starting a true freshman at quarterback but I don’t think that plays a big role in this game. The reason why will be because of Georgia’s running game. They will ride their duo at running back and Notre Dame wasn’t a good defense against the run last year. I think you combine that with the way Georgia’s defense is playing and that is why I have Georgia getting a big road win.
Pick: Georgia 27 Notre Dame 21
Other Notable Games:
TCU over Arkansas by 7
Alabama over Fresno State by 38
Mississippi State over Louisiana Tech by 13
Southern Cal over Stanford by 3
Penn State over Pitt by 16
Louisville over North Carolina by 4
Michigan over Cincinnati by 17
Duke over Northwestern by 6
West Virginia over East Carolina by 14
Boston College over Wake Forest by 8
Oregon over Nebraska by 20
Arizona over Houston by 6
South Carolina @ Missouri
Every game is big at this stage for South Carolina but this game could show that the Gamecocks are ready to take that next step and compete for the SEC East this season. If they are going to compete for the division, then they have to find a way to win games on the road like this one. I think South Carolina is the better team but winning on the road in the SEC is really tough.
I would be surprised if South Carolina didn’t have a big day offensively against Missouri’s defense. Missouri’s defense will probably end up being the worst defense in the SEC this year. Jake Bentley hasn’t played well in his limited game action on the road but this is the perfect scenario for him to have his first big game on the road. I would also watch out for Rico Dowdle in this game. He was really good last year against Missouri and I think he could be in line for a big game Saturday night.
On the other side of the ball, South Carolina’s defense has a tough task in front of them. I think the big concern for South Carolina going into this game is their secondary matched up against Missouri’s passing attack. Missouri likes the quick passing game and South Carolina is going to have to tackle well in the secondary. The defense did a good job last year at limiting Missouri’s offense and they forced Drew Lock to make a couple mistakes. They need to find a way to do the same this year.
I think this is a dangerous game for South Carolina. They are catching Missouri at the start of the year and they are probably feeling pretty good about themselves. It is a night game and I remember how tough Missouri played Georgia last year at home early in the season. I think South Carolina could see that type of effort out of Missouri Saturday night. I expect Missouri to move the ball and score some points. In the end, I like South Carolina’s defense a lot more than I like Missouri’s defense. I think South Carolina has a better chance at causing turnovers and forcing Missouri’s offense to make mistakes. I think it will be a close game, lot of offense, and South Carolina wins.
Pick: South Carolina 38 Missouri 30
1). Win the big play – Missouri’s defense was one of the worst defense’s in the country last year at giving up the big play. That trend carried over to last week when Missouri gave up big plays to Missouri State. Missouri State had three scoring plays of over 30 yards last week against Missouri’s defense. I believe I saw a stat during that game that Missouri’s defense was either third or fourth worst in the country last year at giving up plays of over 30 yards. After one game this season, it doesn’t look like they have fixed that trend. Jake Bentley, Rico Dowdle and company need to hit some big ones against this Missouri defense.
On the other side of the ball, Missouri’s offense can hit the big play through the air or on the ground. South Carolina’s defense needs to force Missouri to prove they can move the ball methodically down the field. If they force them to do this, then Missouri could turn the ball over, something Drew Lock did last year in Columbia, South Carolina.
2). Establish the running game – If you had to pick something to be disappointed about from last week’s win over NC State, then it might be the lack of running game for South Carolina. I think that has to change this week. I look at last year’s game and Rico Dowdle finished with a really good game. The thing I remember about his performance, besides the ridiculous spin move, was how he got better in the second half. South Carolina needs a similar performance this week from Dowdle and the rest of the running backs. South Carolina finished with 174 yards on the ground last year against Missouri. I think they need to get over 200 this year.
Missouri State’s starting running back was able to run for 124 yards last week on only 11 carries. Missouri’s run defense last year was bad. They have given us no reason to believe that they are that much improved in that area right now. This is the perfect week for South Carolina’s offensive line to open up some holes and get the ground game going. I will say that one of my predictions this week is for Dowdle to have a huge game.
3). Bentley over Lock - The game last year was in the other Columbia but Jake Bentely outperformed Drew Lock. I believe something similar needs to happen this year as well. Bentley hasn’t been great on the road in his limited action and this is his chance to prove that he has taken that next step and is ready to lead this team. He was accurate and made good decisions last year against this defense. He needs to do the same Saturday night.
Lock didn’t have his best game last year against South Carolina’s defense. If you remember, Chris Lammons got ejected in this game in the first half last year. South Carolina was without one of their top defensive backs for most of the game. Lock still turned the ball over twice and was barely over 55-percent throwing the ball. South Carolina’s defense looks improved this year and they need to rattle Lock much like they did last year. This game could come down to which quarterback turns the ball over the most. Bentley can’t be that guy if South Carolina wants to win on the road.
4). Tackle in the secondary – The biggest concern I have with South Carolina entering this game is their secondary matched up against Missouri’s receivers. J’Mon Moore is a big receiver and is a big play threat. He has went over 100 yards receiving in four straight games dating back to last season. Johnathon Johnson is a smaller receiver and is also a big play threat. These two guys should get plenty of touches Saturday night and South Carolina is going to have to limit them. I saw a lot of plays last week for Missouri where they turned a simple five-yard hitch or quick bubble screen into a huge play. The tackling in the secondary is going to have to be good. Missouri will take shots deep but the quick pass plays are my biggest concern for the defense going into this game.
5). DL keeps progressing – The defensive line for South Carolina played pretty well last week. They played better than I gave them credit for right after the game ended. Taylor Stallworth was really good against the run against NC State and South Carolina needs that type of performance again this week. Missouri likes the inside run with Damarea Crocket. He is really dangerous when he gets to the second level. Stallworth is South Carolina’s best against the run and he needs to lead this defensive line Saturday night against the run. The defensive line as a whole was really good last week against NC State against the run and they need a repeat performance.
Another thing South Carolina had success with last year against Missouri was pressuring Lock. They were able to get to him a couple times last year and they will need to rattle him again this year. D.J. Wonnum, Dante Sawyer, Keir Thomas, and Bryson Allen-Williams need to be active Saturday night and make Lock hit the ground several times.
After Further Review
This is a new segment this year. I always go back and watch the replay of the game and I see things that I didn’t see live before I type up the Instant Analysis piece that I do after every game. I want to mention some things that I didn’t mention in that article. There are times where I go back and watch the replay and realize that I was wrong. This is where I will correct myself.
1). I was harder on the defensive line than I should have been right after the game. The first half wasn’t perfect for the defensive line but they weren’t as bad as I thought originally. They did a good job against the run the whole game. I think there was one drive in the second half where NC State was able to get some things going with the run game. Other than that, it was really good. I didn’t mention Taylor Stallworth at all in my article and I should have. He had a really good game against the run, which shouldn’t be surprising. I did mention D.J. Wonnum, Dante Sawyer, and Keir Thomas. I still think Wonnum and Sawyer had really good games. Thomas made a big impact in the third quarter. The third quarter was when the defensive line was really good. I would say they were dominant during that stretch.
2). What might have been my biggest mistake was not mentioning T.J. Brunson at all. Brunson led the defense in tackles. He has the look of an SEC linebacker with pads on. He was active against NC State. He was always around the ball. He was good against the run. He was impressive.
3). I think the forgotten play in the game was actually made by Deebo Samuel. Samuel, obviously, was great. The play I’m talking about was on South Carolina’s first offensive drive of the game. Jake Bentley tried to hit Samuel deep and it should have been an easy interception for NC State. Samuel became a defensive back on the play and forced the NC State defender to lose the ball going to the ground. The game was a 7-7 tie at the time and who knows what happens if NC State gets the ball back right there.
4). Jamyest Williams played better than I thought after watching it live. He did miss a tackle early in the game on a third and long that allowed NC State to continue a drive they scored a touchdown on. He did have tight coverage on the plays he was involved in. The NC State quarterback made some really good throws against him. He was also covering NC State’s best receiver a good bit.
SEC Power Rankings
1). Alabama: The defense lost a lot of talent last year but it didn’t show against Florida State Saturday night. They only gave up 40 yards rushing to a really good Florida State team. The offense needs to be better but it was an impressive week one win for Bama.
2). LSU: A complete domination of BYU. LSU outgained BYU 479-97 last week. BYU had -5 yards rushing. The only bad thing I can say about LSU is they had ten penalties.
3). Auburn: Auburn dominated Georgia Southern but did have three turnovers. The real test is this week for Auburn as they travel to Clemson.
4). Georgia: A lot of people thought Georgia might struggle with App State, including me. The game was over in the third quarter. Now the question is what Georgia’s new quarterback will look like against Notre Dame.
5). South Carolina: The Gamecocks got an impressive win over NC State, who was a trendy pick in the ACC this year. The defense looks improved and the offense looks like they should be able to score some points this year.
6). Tennessee: The Vols probably didn’t deserve to win the game against Georgia Tech but a win is a win, especially in week one. It will be interesting to see what that defense looks like against an offense that isn’t a triple option.
7). Mississippi State: It was just Charleston Southern but Mississippi State did what they were supposed to do. Mississippi State is my dark horse this year in the SEC.
8). Arkansas: We will all find out how good Arkansas is this week against TCU. They easily beat Florida A&M last week.
9). Kentucky: I thought Southern Miss would be a dangerous game for Kentucky but they survived. It wasn’t pretty but Kentucky should be 2-0 going into Columbia in week three.
10). Ole Miss: The Rebels pulled away from South Alabama in the third quarter. I still think it will be a tough year for Ole Miss but they are off to a solid start.
11). Vanderbilt: Another trendy pick of an upset in the SEC was Vanderbilt and Middle Tennessee State. Vanderbilt started fast and never looked back last week. Kyle Shurmur threw for 296 yards, three touchdowns, and zero interceptions. They looked dangerous.
12). Florida: I’m sure the Gators will move up this list quickly but it was a very uninspiring effort out of Florida against Michigan. The offense couldn’t move the ball and the defense wasn’t much better. It would have been really ugly if Michigan’s quarterback wouldn’t have thrown two interceptions that Florida returned for a touchdown. I’m not ready to count Florida out in the SEC East but they look like they have a long ways to go.
13). Texas A&M: Kevin Sumlin is in trouble. I was ready to complement A&M’s offensive line and their running game at halftime but then the meltdown happened. That was a devastating loss for Sumlin.
14). Missouri: The offense looked really good but the defense doesn’t look improved from last year when they were one of the worst groups in the SEC. Giving up 43 points and 492 total yards to a Missouri State team is not a good sign.
Big Game Predictions
It was a rough start to the season for me last week. I went 13-5 overall and 11-2 in SEC games. I did miss on the South Carolina game so I’m 0-1 on the Gamecocks.
Oklahoma @ Ohio State
Baker Mayfield was as close to perfect as you can get last week as a quarterback in Oklahoma’s opener. I’m sure he remembers last year’s game against Ohio State pretty well. I’m tempted to pick Oklahoma just because I do think they have an advantage at quarterback and I like Mayfield. Ohio State’s defensive line is really good and I think they will eventually put enough pressure on Mayfield to force some mistakes. I also think Ohio State has the coaching advantage. It will be closer than last year, but Ohio State wins.
Pick: Ohio State 33 Oklahoma 27
Auburn @ Clemson
With the loss that Florida State suffered last week at the quarterback position, Auburn might be the toughest opponent Clemson plays this season. Auburn’s offense gets talked about a lot but it is the defense that could make this team really good. If you look back to when these two played last season, Auburn’s defense played really well against Clemson’s offense. I think that will continue in this game. I believe they are talented enough to force Kelly Bryant to prove he can beat them with his arm. On the other side of the ball, I trust Auburn quarterback Jarrett Stidham more than I do Bryant. Those two reasons are why I’m picking the upset.
Pick: Auburn 23 Clemson 17
Georgia @ Notre Dame
I think this is a game between two teams we don’t know a lot about right now. They both played well last week and beat teams that some thought they might struggle with. Georgia will be starting a true freshman at quarterback but I don’t think that plays a big role in this game. The reason why will be because of Georgia’s running game. They will ride their duo at running back and Notre Dame wasn’t a good defense against the run last year. I think you combine that with the way Georgia’s defense is playing and that is why I have Georgia getting a big road win.
Pick: Georgia 27 Notre Dame 21
Other Notable Games:
TCU over Arkansas by 7
Alabama over Fresno State by 38
Mississippi State over Louisiana Tech by 13
Southern Cal over Stanford by 3
Penn State over Pitt by 16
Louisville over North Carolina by 4
Michigan over Cincinnati by 17
Duke over Northwestern by 6
West Virginia over East Carolina by 14
Boston College over Wake Forest by 8
Oregon over Nebraska by 20
Arizona over Houston by 6
South Carolina @ Missouri
Every game is big at this stage for South Carolina but this game could show that the Gamecocks are ready to take that next step and compete for the SEC East this season. If they are going to compete for the division, then they have to find a way to win games on the road like this one. I think South Carolina is the better team but winning on the road in the SEC is really tough.
I would be surprised if South Carolina didn’t have a big day offensively against Missouri’s defense. Missouri’s defense will probably end up being the worst defense in the SEC this year. Jake Bentley hasn’t played well in his limited game action on the road but this is the perfect scenario for him to have his first big game on the road. I would also watch out for Rico Dowdle in this game. He was really good last year against Missouri and I think he could be in line for a big game Saturday night.
On the other side of the ball, South Carolina’s defense has a tough task in front of them. I think the big concern for South Carolina going into this game is their secondary matched up against Missouri’s passing attack. Missouri likes the quick passing game and South Carolina is going to have to tackle well in the secondary. The defense did a good job last year at limiting Missouri’s offense and they forced Drew Lock to make a couple mistakes. They need to find a way to do the same this year.
I think this is a dangerous game for South Carolina. They are catching Missouri at the start of the year and they are probably feeling pretty good about themselves. It is a night game and I remember how tough Missouri played Georgia last year at home early in the season. I think South Carolina could see that type of effort out of Missouri Saturday night. I expect Missouri to move the ball and score some points. In the end, I like South Carolina’s defense a lot more than I like Missouri’s defense. I think South Carolina has a better chance at causing turnovers and forcing Missouri’s offense to make mistakes. I think it will be a close game, lot of offense, and South Carolina wins.
Pick: South Carolina 38 Missouri 30
