Am I looking at it wrong? A contest where the spread
- Thread starter Judson1
- Start date
I’m not into the lines or betting. I’ve always enjoyed the pick em contests where you pick the winner straight up. However, I see your point, as 3 points is basically even. I just hope our staff makes the right decisions and adjustments.
I always look at the home team getting 3 when teams are even, home field advantage. Since UT is the favorite, they are probably closer to 6 pts favored
No, they are favored by 3. If not the betting would point to 6 points. If new information comes in the spread can change.
This is like a poster saying (some years ago) that 2 star from Alabama is better than a 2 star from Alaska. No, they are both 2-stars. The rating takes all this into account.
Home field advantage is 3 points. If we were playing at Tennessee we would be getting 6. The line moves on how the bets come in.
That's generally NOT how its understood with point spreads. All things are considered by the bookies, including home field advantage. Typically home field advantage is considered good for 3 pts beyond what the teams bring to the field. If the game was being played on a neutral field, there would be no such advantage.
Don't know exactly how the bookies are dealing with the COVID-19 issues of smaller game crowds, but one must feel that regardless, playing on your home field that you see everyday, sleeping in your personal beds as opposed to hotel beds, dressing out at your own lockers instead of bare visiting team lockers, all have to count for SOMETHING for the home team, so the home field advantage is still in play.
So if UTjr. is favored by 3 pts on our field, then it would be by 6 pts on a neutral field, and by 9 pts - the 6 pts they are being favored now, PLUS their own 3-pt home field advantage - if the game was being played in Knoxville. Minus ALL advantages, Vegas has UTjr. as 6-pt favorites...
If the game were at a neutral site the line would be 6,if it were at Tennessee the Gamecocks would be getting 9.
^Interesting, I never thought to figure in a neutral site into the scenario. I will say that with Covid, there really isn't much to home field advantage this year.
I'm sorry gentlemen, close but no cigar whatsoever. Naw, not even close, really.
Some of the items mentioned may, in fact, be considered when the OPENING LINE is being determined but, after that the line is determined simply by the way the wagering is going. The bookies (Bookmakers is the proper term) attempt to keep the line as close to 50/50, as possible, dollar wise. 50% of the MONEY bet on Team A to win, 50% of the MONEY bet on Team B to win. It is referred to as Parimutuel Wagering or Parimutuel Betting.
As in horse racing where there is usually more than two contestants, the percentages will change but, the more money that is wagered on a horse/contestant, the lower the payoff, if they win.
Basically, this means the HOUSE (bookie) has no interest, whatsoever, in which contestant wins.
Some of the items mentioned may, in fact, be considered when the OPENING LINE is being determined but, after that the line is determined simply by the way the wagering is going. The bookies (Bookmakers is the proper term) attempt to keep the line as close to 50/50, as possible, dollar wise. 50% of the MONEY bet on Team A to win, 50% of the MONEY bet on Team B to win. It is referred to as Parimutuel Wagering or Parimutuel Betting.
As in horse racing where there is usually more than two contestants, the percentages will change but, the more money that is wagered on a horse/contestant, the lower the payoff, if they win.
Basically, this means the HOUSE (bookie) has no interest, whatsoever, in which contestant wins.
The only thing ‘vegas’ takes into account is how people are betting.
Thats exactly right....the home field is worth 3 points according to oddsmakers,so Tennessee is considered 6 points better tha us...if game was in Tennessee then they would be -9 ,or “favorites by 9 points...
You really think we're gonna get more points on a neutral site than home?
Neutral Site would be a pick.
South Carolina at home +3
South Carolina at Tennessee +6
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My understanding was the opening line was UT by either 3 pts or 3.5 pts., depending on what service you used. So my above comments were entirely regarding the opening spread by the bookies. Of course they will make adjustments based on how the betting goes, afterwards. But how they make their opening point spreads is what I was referring to....
The bookie may not have any interest in which contestant wins, but they have to put SOMETHING out for bettors to respond to. Their formulas typically used to initiate the spread, is what I was commenting about above.....
Home field is not automatically a 3 point advantage. It can be a 1 point advantage or more than 3 points.
SC has a 2.58 point home field advantage. TN, believe it or not, has only a 1.4 point home field advantage.
SC has a 2.58 point home field advantage. TN, believe it or not, has only a 1.4 point home field advantage.
South Carolina is a 3 point dog at home
South Carolina would be a 6 point dog on a neutral site
South Carolina would be a 9 point dog at Tennessee
It's not a one TD swing playing home or away. If we were getting 6 at home we would get 9 on the road not 12.
Because Vegas insiders have always said home feild advantage is a 3 point swing.
Dude you’re terrible at math. You just said South Carolina would be a pick em on a neutral field, but be a 3 point dog at home. So you think a neutral field is more advantageous than playing at Williams Brice? Are you high?
That’s an AVERAGE of what home field is worth to bettors. Insiders don’t swing the line based on home field. The only thing that swings the line is HOW PEOPLE BET.
Dude my first post on this thread I address how the line moves due to how the bets come in. This whole thread has been about how lines are set
Shouldn’t the line move in a team’s favor going from a neutral field to a home field?
You said Carolina would be a pickem on a nuetral field but a 3 point dog at Williams Brice. You need to think real hard on that apparently bc it’s nonsense and anyone that says it should not be involved in a betting discussion.
Use Google.
Are you serious? Think hard about what you just typed and you want me to spell it out lol
I literally posted what our home field advantage actually is up in the thread. Do people not read anymore?
What would you set the line at on a Neutral site? With vegas starting the line +3 at home.
The team that is getting +3 at home would likely be +6 or +7. They would be “given” more points as the dog since they are losing the home field advantage.
