R
Reddfoxx1
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3-2 last week. Good start
Season win totals looking pretty good early
southcarolina.forums.rivals.com
I consider myself mostly a contrarian player. It has served me well.
When things look to obvious, typically, sharp bettors will go the other way. I get it, but sometimes the Joe’s win.
Im gonna be a Joe this week.
We have a few sides, and a few unders.
Unders were extremely successful last week and one reason to consider is that numbers are still skewed from last year because tackling was horrid. No camp, Covid restrictions didn’t allow guys to practice like normal. Preparation was limited.
Things look more normal and in typical seasons, good defense is ahead of good offense.
unders between two FBS schools in the first two weeks of the season have gone 33-14-1 (70.2%).
Let’s look at 3 unders we like this week
1. Michigan/Washington under 49 - W
Michigan is Back! Maybe not. They ran it up on one of the worst EPA defenses in the country last week. The Wolverines also lost their fastest weapon on offense, Ronnie Bell, for the season. Bummer. What we were expecting in 2021 was a return to a typical Harbaugh defense. Even in 2019’s decline, Michigan was stout on defense, allowing 12 ppg to average offenses. They were very good vs a above average Western Michigan offense last week. And what comes to town this weekend….. Washington. Dreadful offense. No speed. No push up front.
Montana controlled the line of scrimmage. Michigan is better than Montana.
Now what is Washington known for? Their defense. They showed up in week one.
I expect Washington to give a great effort this week, but just don’t believe in that offense. Mix in slow tempo on both teams, some predicted iffy weather in Ann Arbor, and we see a grinder
Michigan 20
Washington 17
2. Cal/TCU under 48.5 - L
Another awesome Pac 12 defense who is atrocious on offense. Cal has been consistently one of the worst offenses under Justin Wilcox. Averaging around 19-20 PPG in real games since 2018. Last week proved no different. After going ahead 14-0 vs a decent Nevada team, Cal only produced 3 points and 150 yards over the last 43 minutes. Now they travel to TCU, who is very stout up front. Cal will struggle to move the ball. Wilcox specialty is defense, and Cal looks to be very good again on that side of the ball. Expect a close game in Dallas, with defense leading the way.
TCU 24
Cal 17
3. Iowa/Iowa State under 46.5 - W
Two of the slowest teams in FBS. Two of the best rush Defenses in power 5. An off season to prepare. This is a game that has gone under 7 of the last 8 meetings.
Campbell plays even slower vs the better defensive teams. Iowa State only had 60 plays last week vs Northern Iowa. Both teams allow less than 3 yards per rush and both offenses really struggled last week. Iowa suffocated Indiana, but managed just 302 total yards on offense.
Iowa State star RB Breece Hall didn’t have any room to run last week, and Iowa State‘s Achilles heel might be the O-Line. At least early.
In a game with less than 20 possessions, i see a fistfight
Iowa 20
Iowa State 17
What is a “Joe”
Its Joe public. The gullible gambler who bets on the obvious side. Like I said earlier, you will lose long term being a Joe, but early in the season, Joe’s sometimes get it right.
If you pride yourself on being smart, fade these. But Im going off what I saw. Dont think Vegas has adjusted enough on these. Taking road favorites is also a no-no. I’m bucking my own creeds here….
6 road favorites.
4. Pitt -3 over Tennessee (I got Pitt-1 early) W
Simple analysis here. Tennessee stinks. Joe Milton vs a real defense is something I will bet against every week. Fairly high on Pitt and we continue to get big brand value betting against Tennessee early in the season. Volts just don’t have that many dudes. Pitt has seen Huepals offense plenty. Pitt will surprise in the ACC this year.
Pitt 30
Tennessee 20
5. NC State -2.5 over Mississippi State - L
Was high on the Wolfpack coming in to the season and low on MSU. Nothing changed my mind after week 1. NCST has the perfect defensive scheme to play the air raid.
Mississippi State‘s strength last year was the D-Line. They have regressed. La Tech averaged 6.0 ypp last week and should have won. NC State will be prepared.
Wolfpack 27
Miss State 20
6. Air Force - 5.5 over Navy W
Navy is really bad, folks. They were bad last year, and might be worse. Covid has really affected them in a negative way in recruiting and normal preparation. Going back to last season, Navy has scored 20 points in 4 games. Ouch. Marshall was a 2 point favorite last week and beat Navy 49-7. We do like Marshall, but not that much. Marshall sacked Navy 9 times. Navy usually doesn’t even throw it 9 times. Air Force rolled last week and is a sleeper in the Mountain West. Just don’t believe Vegas is valuing Navy’s ineptitude. They are a bet against team until they prove me wrong.
Side note. Unders in games with 2 service academies are 38-9 last 47.
Air Force 27
Navy 10
7. Texas A&M -16 over Colorado L
Just an absolute mismatch in talent. Colorado did not look good In week one vs Northern Colorado. Betting on pedigree here. I do think Texas A&M is borderline elite this year. If they find themselves in a fight in Boulder, they surely are not. Colorado was fools gold last season. They stink. Their defense is butter. Jimbo knows what the spread is as well in these games.
A&M 41
Colorado 17
8. Texas -4 over Arkansas (I bet this on Sunday) - L
The Joeiest pick of the week. I’m buying Sark. Loved what I saw from them last week. Disciplined, efficient, innovative. I’m buying all that talent vs a still rebuilding Arkansas team.
Arkansas is much better but let’s not forget they are 3-26 in their last 29 vs P5 teams. KJ Jefferson will struggle vs one of the better dual QB defensive coordinators in the country. This line has ballooned to -7. Dare I say I still like it.
Texas 34
Arkansas 20
9. Florida -28 over South Florida L
Woodshed. South Florida is terrible. Dan Mullen will run the score up here. QB battles usually mean both will go all out and try to put up as many points as possible. NC State beat up on USF 45-0 last week (and it wasn’t that close) Gators will do the same
Florida 52
South Florida 7
some ugly dogs to consider
UAB +24.5 - L
Vandy +7 - W
App State +9.5 - W
Iowa +4.5 - W
Ball State +23 - L
And the final road favorite is our beloved Gamecocks. - Nailed.
I will be shocked if this game isn’t very close. As I’ve said numerous times, I am worried about our Offensive line. ECU did not look very good last Thursday vs App St, but they return home and their crowd will be ready. Just too many unknowns for me on Zeb/Doty.
This is our first game.
I believe our Defensive line has a chance to create some negative plays and we better. ECU will hit some throws. They will test our CB’s.
We really need the lead in this one.
Ultimately I think we sneak by.
USC 27
ECU 24
Good luck and don’t make betting road favs a habit
USC/ECU under 56.5 - W
Washington +7 - L
New Mexico State +20 - W
Season win totals looking pretty good early
For those who like to gamble. Win totals 2021
My 2021 College Football win totals Overs Utah over 8.5 - W NC State over 6 - W Florida State over 5.5 - L UCLA over 7 - W Kentucky over 7 - W East Carolina over 4.5 - W Iowa over 8.5 - W Illinois over 3.5 - W Unders Auburn under 7 - W Notre Dame under 9 - L BYU under 7 - L Miami under 9.5 - W...
southcarolina.forums.rivals.com
I consider myself mostly a contrarian player. It has served me well.
When things look to obvious, typically, sharp bettors will go the other way. I get it, but sometimes the Joe’s win.
Im gonna be a Joe this week.
We have a few sides, and a few unders.
Unders were extremely successful last week and one reason to consider is that numbers are still skewed from last year because tackling was horrid. No camp, Covid restrictions didn’t allow guys to practice like normal. Preparation was limited.
Things look more normal and in typical seasons, good defense is ahead of good offense.
unders between two FBS schools in the first two weeks of the season have gone 33-14-1 (70.2%).
Let’s look at 3 unders we like this week
1. Michigan/Washington under 49 - W
Michigan is Back! Maybe not. They ran it up on one of the worst EPA defenses in the country last week. The Wolverines also lost their fastest weapon on offense, Ronnie Bell, for the season. Bummer. What we were expecting in 2021 was a return to a typical Harbaugh defense. Even in 2019’s decline, Michigan was stout on defense, allowing 12 ppg to average offenses. They were very good vs a above average Western Michigan offense last week. And what comes to town this weekend….. Washington. Dreadful offense. No speed. No push up front.
Montana controlled the line of scrimmage. Michigan is better than Montana.
Now what is Washington known for? Their defense. They showed up in week one.
I expect Washington to give a great effort this week, but just don’t believe in that offense. Mix in slow tempo on both teams, some predicted iffy weather in Ann Arbor, and we see a grinder
Michigan 20
Washington 17
2. Cal/TCU under 48.5 - L
Another awesome Pac 12 defense who is atrocious on offense. Cal has been consistently one of the worst offenses under Justin Wilcox. Averaging around 19-20 PPG in real games since 2018. Last week proved no different. After going ahead 14-0 vs a decent Nevada team, Cal only produced 3 points and 150 yards over the last 43 minutes. Now they travel to TCU, who is very stout up front. Cal will struggle to move the ball. Wilcox specialty is defense, and Cal looks to be very good again on that side of the ball. Expect a close game in Dallas, with defense leading the way.
TCU 24
Cal 17
3. Iowa/Iowa State under 46.5 - W
Two of the slowest teams in FBS. Two of the best rush Defenses in power 5. An off season to prepare. This is a game that has gone under 7 of the last 8 meetings.
Campbell plays even slower vs the better defensive teams. Iowa State only had 60 plays last week vs Northern Iowa. Both teams allow less than 3 yards per rush and both offenses really struggled last week. Iowa suffocated Indiana, but managed just 302 total yards on offense.
Iowa State star RB Breece Hall didn’t have any room to run last week, and Iowa State‘s Achilles heel might be the O-Line. At least early.
In a game with less than 20 possessions, i see a fistfight
Iowa 20
Iowa State 17
What is a “Joe”
Its Joe public. The gullible gambler who bets on the obvious side. Like I said earlier, you will lose long term being a Joe, but early in the season, Joe’s sometimes get it right.
If you pride yourself on being smart, fade these. But Im going off what I saw. Dont think Vegas has adjusted enough on these. Taking road favorites is also a no-no. I’m bucking my own creeds here….
6 road favorites.
4. Pitt -3 over Tennessee (I got Pitt-1 early) W
Simple analysis here. Tennessee stinks. Joe Milton vs a real defense is something I will bet against every week. Fairly high on Pitt and we continue to get big brand value betting against Tennessee early in the season. Volts just don’t have that many dudes. Pitt has seen Huepals offense plenty. Pitt will surprise in the ACC this year.
Pitt 30
Tennessee 20
5. NC State -2.5 over Mississippi State - L
Was high on the Wolfpack coming in to the season and low on MSU. Nothing changed my mind after week 1. NCST has the perfect defensive scheme to play the air raid.
Mississippi State‘s strength last year was the D-Line. They have regressed. La Tech averaged 6.0 ypp last week and should have won. NC State will be prepared.
Wolfpack 27
Miss State 20
6. Air Force - 5.5 over Navy W
Navy is really bad, folks. They were bad last year, and might be worse. Covid has really affected them in a negative way in recruiting and normal preparation. Going back to last season, Navy has scored 20 points in 4 games. Ouch. Marshall was a 2 point favorite last week and beat Navy 49-7. We do like Marshall, but not that much. Marshall sacked Navy 9 times. Navy usually doesn’t even throw it 9 times. Air Force rolled last week and is a sleeper in the Mountain West. Just don’t believe Vegas is valuing Navy’s ineptitude. They are a bet against team until they prove me wrong.
Side note. Unders in games with 2 service academies are 38-9 last 47.
Air Force 27
Navy 10
7. Texas A&M -16 over Colorado L
Just an absolute mismatch in talent. Colorado did not look good In week one vs Northern Colorado. Betting on pedigree here. I do think Texas A&M is borderline elite this year. If they find themselves in a fight in Boulder, they surely are not. Colorado was fools gold last season. They stink. Their defense is butter. Jimbo knows what the spread is as well in these games.
A&M 41
Colorado 17
8. Texas -4 over Arkansas (I bet this on Sunday) - L
The Joeiest pick of the week. I’m buying Sark. Loved what I saw from them last week. Disciplined, efficient, innovative. I’m buying all that talent vs a still rebuilding Arkansas team.
Arkansas is much better but let’s not forget they are 3-26 in their last 29 vs P5 teams. KJ Jefferson will struggle vs one of the better dual QB defensive coordinators in the country. This line has ballooned to -7. Dare I say I still like it.
Texas 34
Arkansas 20
9. Florida -28 over South Florida L
Woodshed. South Florida is terrible. Dan Mullen will run the score up here. QB battles usually mean both will go all out and try to put up as many points as possible. NC State beat up on USF 45-0 last week (and it wasn’t that close) Gators will do the same
Florida 52
South Florida 7
some ugly dogs to consider
UAB +24.5 - L
Vandy +7 - W
App State +9.5 - W
Iowa +4.5 - W
Ball State +23 - L
And the final road favorite is our beloved Gamecocks. - Nailed.
I will be shocked if this game isn’t very close. As I’ve said numerous times, I am worried about our Offensive line. ECU did not look very good last Thursday vs App St, but they return home and their crowd will be ready. Just too many unknowns for me on Zeb/Doty.
This is our first game.
I believe our Defensive line has a chance to create some negative plays and we better. ECU will hit some throws. They will test our CB’s.
We really need the lead in this one.
Ultimately I think we sneak by.
USC 27
ECU 24
Good luck and don’t make betting road favs a habit
USC/ECU under 56.5 - W
Washington +7 - L
New Mexico State +20 - W
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