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Wes Mitchell
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For the first time in two years the rivalry matchup between South Carolina and Clemson is renewed and the Gamecocks have their best shot to grab a victory since the end of the Steve Spurrier Era.
The Gamecocks will not only host the Tigers tonight but also will host a soldout Williams-Brice Stadium for what should be the best atmosphere it has seen since at least the 2017 Kentucky game and probably longer than that. Additionally, South Carolina will have one of the longest, most star-studded list of recruits it's had in for a game that I can remember. It should be a fun day of tailgating and an intriguing, exciting night of football.
ALSO SEE: Recruit visitors list for Clemson game
Let's get down to it...
I've gone back and forth all week long about how this game could play out and I keep coming to one conclusion: If the Gamecocks are going to beat the Tigers for the first time since 2013, then it needs to fit their current blueprint for winning.
What does that mean? Probably a low 20s to high teens type score with the Carolina defense playing really well and the Gamecock offense doing just enough, similar to the way Carolina beat Auburn last week.
On the surface, this is certainly one of those matchups where the two running games will be featured. We know that Carolina's offense, after sort of struggling to find out what it wants to be all season long, has settled on being a sort of grind it out, power rushing attack that gets the ball to ZaQuandre White and Kevin Harris and then scores on some sporadic big plays.
Interestingly enough, Clemson enters the game with an offense that's morphed into something similar. This is not the explosive, overwhelm you with big plays offense that we've seen from the Tigers for the last five years. Later in the season, Clemson has taken a similar approach to Carolina, getting the football to Will Shipley and Kobe Pace and ultimately wearing down opposing defenses like Wake Forest's last week. Clemson has been forced to move in that direction due to injuries at the receiver position and less than ideal quarterback play.
Make no mistake, there's going to be a battle of wills in the trenches tonight and the winner of that battle is going to have an excellent shot at leaving Willy B with the win.
But let's say that both teams have some level of success running the football with neither completely overwhelming the other, then the deciding factor could quickly shift to the quarterbacks.
From a defensive standpoint for the Gamecocks, look no further than last week for evidence that Carolina can give up its fair share of yards on the ground while still holding an opponent to a manageable point total as long as the opposing quarterback doesn't simultaneously have a big game.
Most of the year, opponents have had at least some level of success on the ground against Carolina, but the key has been whether or not the opponent also had a quarterback who could make plays too.
I believe DJ Uiagalelei actually compares favorably to Auburn's T.J. Finley. He's a big bodied, big armed quarterback who moves around pretty well and can make NFL wow throws from time to time. Like Finley, he can power the football deep down the field, forcing DBs to cover for longer than they're used to and like Finley, Carolina's defensive lineman and linebackers will have to wrap up with extra force and technique when trying to bring him down.
And like Finley, Uiagalelei is not an efficient passer, misses some easy underneath throws and will offer opportunities for the Carolina defense to get off the field. Maybe he proves me wrong, but if the Carolina defense gets some level of pressure on Uiagalelei, which they should, then I just don't see him going up and down the field on Carolina, assuming our initial thought is also correct, that Clemson has success on the ground but doesn't just take over the game in that category.
One interesting note worth pointing out here is that both Uiagalelei and Shipley come into the game banged up. Both are expected to play for sure, but Uiagalelei has been dealing with a knee issue and Shipley an ankle, so their relative health could prove to be a huge factor. I've always thought Clemson should run Uiagalelei more, and even had a former college offensive coordinator tell me the exact same, but on a cold night and in a physical matchup, that option may not be there if the knee is bothering him.
Shifting the focus to Carolina's quarterback, the Gamecocks are going to need Jason Brown to have his best game yet and that doesn't necessarily mean from a stats or big play standpoint (though that would help). I mean more from a standpoint of knowing where to go with the football, getting the team lined up correctly and the protections set, and keeping the offense out of negative plays.
Why do I say that? As much as there's been talk about Clemson's offensive struggles, this defense has been pretty much on par, or at least close to, what we've all become accustomed to seeing from them. That means a defensive front that can absolutely take over a game and a playcaller who prefers to send reinforcements in the form of extra blitzers and exotic looks, especially on third downs.
The Tigers rank 17th in the country in TFLs and third in sacks. As one former player told me, Carolina's offensive line is going to need to have its best game of the year tonight.
Are there some areas for Carolina to exploit if they can execute? Paul Strelow of Tiger Illustrated pointed out that the Tigers don't necessarily have the fastest linebackers, which could be something Carolina tries to exploit with Z White. He also pointed out that this is a defense that while still good, hasn't been quite as dominant at throttling teams in between the 20s like in the past - they're giving up a few more yards along the way, but are locking teams down when they get in the red zone. And as someone else pointed to me, they've ended multiple games with their defense on the field, getting one final stop to seal it. Red zone offense is another major key for Carolina.
I don't think anyone can realistically expect Carolina to just go up and down the field on these guys and put up 35 points or more. But the real key will be the avoid the negative plays, avoid the three-and-outs and keep the defense fresh and not facing short fields.
The Gamecocks likely can't win a shootout tonight, but for the first time in a long time I do believe they'll have a chance to win the game, especially if it ends up being a low scoring grind-it-out game and Carolina can steal a defensive or special teams score.
The gap has certainly closed, but tonight we will find out by just how much.
FINAL PREDICTION: I have no doubt that the gap between these two teams is much smaller than it has been in recent seasons and the Gamecocks have their best shot to win this rivalry game in years. Not only is Clemson a banged up football team from a standpoint of the players that are out, but some of their key contributors are currently playing through bumps and bruises as well. The Carolina defense seems to play well at home and should be capable of keeping Clemson at a manageable point total. The real question? Can Carolina score against a super salty Clemson defense. This one needs to be low-scoring and while I like the Gamecocks' chances to keep it close, I can't pick them yet. Clemson 23, South Carolina 17
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