W
Wes Mitchell
Guest
A few final thoughts on the game...
** What should your biggest concern be for this game? While it's easy to point to the South Carolina offense, considering the struggles there for much of the year, my eyes go directly to the North Carolina running game against a Gamecock run defense that has struggled for much of the year.
Sam Howell is the star of the show in Chapel Hill and in many ways is the face of the program under Mack Brown but it's actually the Tar Heels' rushing attack that's led the way on that side of the ball. UNC led the ACC this season in rushing, averaging 220 yards per game, and the run game has a PFF grade of over 90.
There's a weird dichotomy in that the UNC offensive line has given up more sacks than any other in their conference while simultaneously putting up big numbers pretty much across the board and grading out pretty well against both the run and the pass.
Former Tennessee running back Ty Chandler, who tranferred in this past offseason, has been the workhorse in UNC's backfield, showing that he can break tackles and add a power running threat. If he sets the tone for the Heels offense by churning out makeable second and third downs then it could be a long day for the Gamecocks.
For an offense that is largely predicated on the short passing game, keeping UNC out of those shorter distances has to be a major key to this game. As good as Howell can be, North Carolina has struggled to get any receivers other than the very talented Joshua Downs going this year and if they're forced to throw then some of those o-line pass-pro issues could start to pop up.
** This is a North Carolina defense that finished the season in the lower half of the ACC in all the major traditional stats and has been the Tar Heels' undoing in multiple games in which their offense put up big points.
The question is whether or not the Gamecocks have enough firepower to take advantage of their struggles without ZaQuandre White or Jason Brown in the backfield? In our keys to victory, I pointed out that Kevin Harris is my key player for this game in that the Gamecocks are going to need the junior to have a big day in what could (and likely will) be his last game in the Garnet and Black.
If at about 4 p.m. this afternoon you're turning to your buddy and talking about how Harris had his best game of the season, then that probably bodes pretty well for the Gamecocks' chances since it likely means the offense was able to find some semblance of balance and the defense was able to get some level of rest during the game.
As we've talked about before, complementary football is so big for this team and avoiding three-and-outs on offense and at least shifting field position can be big wins, even in occasions where the offense isn't putting up points.
Can the Gamecocks just line up in their base offense and go score points? I'm not so sure about that. To me, they're going to have to go do something different. With the extra practice time, coaches have a little more freedom to do that.
Does that mean playing Dakereon Joyner more at QB and letting him go throw and run around and try to make some plays (that's actually what I would do)? Does that mean lining Trai Jones up in the backfield and running a lot of straight I-formation? I'm not sure the exact answers there, but I think you have to throw some twists at the Heels and give yourself a chance against a defense that will give you some room to make plays if you can just take advantage of it.
** How much will the Gamecocks feel the effects of COVID? From what I understand, there are actually some guys who were in the protocol and missed practices earlier but that should be back for today's game. However, as Shane Beamer confirmed yesterday, the Gamecocks do have some new COVID positives from yesterday as well. Without going into specifics, there's one position group that I believe will be highly affected by guys being out (plus the suspensions) and which group that is will be obvious right off the bat. The rest of the position groups should be able to hold up, though South Carolina is a little light at running back due to non-COVID reasons. South Carolina could be missing at least one (non-coordinator) on-the-field assistant as well. Overall, COVID will have an effect but shouldn't be debilitating.
** Unless North Carolina has a ton of players out and we just don't know it yet, I do think the Heels are the better team and that it's not the best matchup for the Gamecocks on paper. But bowl games are rarely played out on paper and many times come down to which team wants it the most. With so many players out today and then impact players coming in this offseason (Spencer Rattler, Austin Stogner), I'm not sure exactly what this game tells us in the long term - I think today is just about the Gamecocks going out, competing and giving themselves a shot and letting the chips fall where they may.
FINAL PREDICTION: Despite South Carolina already being the underdog and also being outmanned in this game due to opt-outs, injuries and COVID issues, I expect the Gamecocks to compete. But even with the Tar Heels struggles on defense, I'm not sure there's enough firepower for South Carolina to outpace a UNC offense that has the better quarterback and has been good in the running game. That's a bad combo for a South Carolina defense that has outplayed expectations but has also struggled to stop the run this season. North Carolina 31, South Carolina 21
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