Link to the most recent post: South Carolina MBB Resume (01/07/20)
Quick explanation: This is a post I started doing last year and had alot of fun with. I typically try to keep it as a running update throughout the year after every game. The way this posts usually works is that I break down our current resume, then I go in opponent-by-opponent for those that have a shot at moving up or down a quadrant, then I talk about our next opponent.
SEC Standings Note: With standings being based on Win % (and us playing less game so far), a win next week could vault us up to tied for 4th.
Bracketology Note: Latest Lunardi Bracketology (01/15/20) - Gamecocks not mentioned to no surprise. LSU might have snuck us in there had we won, but if last night's team gets their legs under him and continues to play at a high level, it shouldn't be long before we are mentioned.
Link: NET Rankings (01/16/21)
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**For teams that we play twice I will denote the road game with an "@" symbol
For us:
Quadrant 1: (0-2)
Wins:
Losses: Houston (NET #6), LSU (NET #22)
Quadrant 2: (1-1)
Wins: Tulsa (NET #66)
Losses: Liberty (NET #77)
Quadrant 3: (1-0)
Wins: TAMU (NET #119)
Losses:
Quadrant 4: (1-0)
Wins: FAMU (NET #243)
Losses:
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**To start the season, I'll cover all of our teams, but as the year goes I am only going to highlight teams that have chance to move up or down in the bubble. Some teams are either destined for Quadrant 4 regardless of results at this point and some become sandwiched into one of the other quads with little hope of movement the later the season goes on.
**if a highlight is green -> I think he means they COULD move up, not that I think they will. Red -> COULD move down, not that I think they will.
Notes on teams we've played:
**I have linked the school's name directly to the Instant Analysis by @Collyn Taylor for the latest game- figured this would be nice to add
Note: No write-ups for Houston or FAMU. Their fates are sealed. With us only having played 6 games there really isn't much to watch for right now.
LSU (NET #22, down 3 spots after last night's game) - See Collyn's instant analysis linked to the left for great detail into last night's game. Last night was frustrating because it was a game we would've won had we been healthy or even able to practice. We had LSU flustered for most of the game until our legs gave out. If this team can get healthy (and stay healthy), I foresee s really strong finish to the season and I am excited about it. I hate them and think the entire team and coaching staff are garbage, but they should stay Q1.
Texas A&M (NET #113, down 18 spots since game played) - No reason to write much here, should stay Quad 3 unless they have a shockingly good, or shockingly bad, SEC performance.
Tulsa (NET #66, even since game played beforehand) - Tulsa can;t seem to find their groove whenever they play Wichita State as they took their second conference loss of the season, both to Wichita State. They aren't likely to fall to Q3, but I am keeping an eye on them for Q1. They have a difficult 3 game stretch coming up which will give us a good sign of which Quad they will end up in. I'm still giving them the benefit of the doubt and saying they'll sneak into Quad 1, but we'll know alot more by next Sunday assuming COVID stays away.
Liberty University (NET #70, even since NET released - game played beforehand) - As mentioned in a previous post, the A-SUN will likely come down to a 3-headed race between Steston, Lipscomb, and Liebrty. Liberty just went 1-1 with Lipscomb and Stetson each will means the regular conference title for the ASUN will quiet literally come down to the wire. I like their chance to remain Quad 2 just because they are one of the superior teams in their conference, but it wouldn't take much to send them down to Quad 3 with the weakness of their competition.
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**For teams that we play twice I will denote the road game with an "@" symbol
My Projection:
Quadrant 1: (1-2)
Wins: Tulsa
Losses: Houston, LSU
Quadrant 2: (0-1)
Wins:
Losses: Liberty
Quadrant 3: (1-0)
Wins: TAMU
Losses:
Quadrant 4: (1-0)
Wins: FAMU
Losses:
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Footnote: Not the most electirc post since I consider most of our opponents to stay in the quad they are in, but alas that is the consequences of only having 6 games under our belt. Would be alot more exciting to write about scrappy teams like Wofford or a Top 25 team that I think we could beat at home like Clemson.
Next Opponent: Mizzou (NET #25) - Great chance at an undeniable Quad 1 win here and a chance to get some real momentum as we head into a very winnable stretch of basketball. Mizzou relies on scoring inside and solid defense to win their games, which means we should theoretically match up well with them. We play at a much faster tempo than them (#21 vs #158 in Adj. Tempo), but unfortunately most of the big upsets they've had this season were at above average tempos, so I don't think we will be able to use it to our advantage.
The most important thing will be for our bigs to stay out of trouble. This is an obvious thing to say, but becomes more obvious when you realize that Mizzou #330 in three-point shooting which means they present virtually no threat. If we can close the lanes, which Frank Martin teams excel at, and force Mizzou to play on the perimeter then we could have a strong chance on their home court.
Another clear advantage we have is rebounding. We are a Top 20 rebounding team on the offensive glass where as they are ranked outsise the Top 200 in Defensive rebounding. The margin is much closer on the other end of the court (#68 vs #123), but the advantage there is still ours.
Now for the bad news...... Mizzou is the 44th team in the country in terms of getting to the free throw line, where as we are one of the worst teams in the country at allowing people to get to the free throw line. Considering that "our bigs playing good defense and not getting into foul trouble so that we can force them outside" will be a huge part of our game plan - this makes this unfortunate stat line a double-edged sword.
Lastly, there defense is strong in limiting the effective FG% of their opponents which conveniently South Carolina has a weak effective FG% themselves. Shots will be hard to come by, and wasted opportunities at the basket (like TJ Moss and Couisnard and Woods missing layups) will come back to bite us hard. We will need Lawson and Couisnard's shots to fall.
Overall, I think we have a better chance than the 32% Odds of Winning KenPom gives us. We are a team of mystery right now since we have only played relatively strong teams (outside of FAMU and TAMU) and have been all over the board in how we've played those games. This makes metrics hard to gauge. While I think this means we have a better than 32% chance of winning and metrics are underrating us, it could also be the opposite. Time will tell, but I'm much more optimistic than I have been in 3 years.
Go Cocks!
Let me know if you have any questions or comments below!
Quick explanation: This is a post I started doing last year and had alot of fun with. I typically try to keep it as a running update throughout the year after every game. The way this posts usually works is that I break down our current resume, then I go in opponent-by-opponent for those that have a shot at moving up or down a quadrant, then I talk about our next opponent.
SEC Standings Note: With standings being based on Win % (and us playing less game so far), a win next week could vault us up to tied for 4th.
Bracketology Note: Latest Lunardi Bracketology (01/15/20) - Gamecocks not mentioned to no surprise. LSU might have snuck us in there had we won, but if last night's team gets their legs under him and continues to play at a high level, it shouldn't be long before we are mentioned.
Link: NET Rankings (01/16/21)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
**For teams that we play twice I will denote the road game with an "@" symbol
For us:
Quadrant 1: (0-2)
Wins:
Losses: Houston (NET #6), LSU (NET #22)
Quadrant 2: (1-1)
Wins: Tulsa (NET #66)
Losses: Liberty (NET #77)
Quadrant 3: (1-0)
Wins: TAMU (NET #119)
Losses:
Quadrant 4: (1-0)
Wins: FAMU (NET #243)
Losses:
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
**To start the season, I'll cover all of our teams, but as the year goes I am only going to highlight teams that have chance to move up or down in the bubble. Some teams are either destined for Quadrant 4 regardless of results at this point and some become sandwiched into one of the other quads with little hope of movement the later the season goes on.
**if a highlight is green -> I think he means they COULD move up, not that I think they will. Red -> COULD move down, not that I think they will.
Notes on teams we've played:
**I have linked the school's name directly to the Instant Analysis by @Collyn Taylor for the latest game- figured this would be nice to add
Note: No write-ups for Houston or FAMU. Their fates are sealed. With us only having played 6 games there really isn't much to watch for right now.
LSU (NET #22, down 3 spots after last night's game) - See Collyn's instant analysis linked to the left for great detail into last night's game. Last night was frustrating because it was a game we would've won had we been healthy or even able to practice. We had LSU flustered for most of the game until our legs gave out. If this team can get healthy (and stay healthy), I foresee s really strong finish to the season and I am excited about it. I hate them and think the entire team and coaching staff are garbage, but they should stay Q1.
Texas A&M (NET #113, down 18 spots since game played) - No reason to write much here, should stay Quad 3 unless they have a shockingly good, or shockingly bad, SEC performance.
Tulsa (NET #66, even since game played beforehand) - Tulsa can;t seem to find their groove whenever they play Wichita State as they took their second conference loss of the season, both to Wichita State. They aren't likely to fall to Q3, but I am keeping an eye on them for Q1. They have a difficult 3 game stretch coming up which will give us a good sign of which Quad they will end up in. I'm still giving them the benefit of the doubt and saying they'll sneak into Quad 1, but we'll know alot more by next Sunday assuming COVID stays away.
Liberty University (NET #70, even since NET released - game played beforehand) - As mentioned in a previous post, the A-SUN will likely come down to a 3-headed race between Steston, Lipscomb, and Liebrty. Liberty just went 1-1 with Lipscomb and Stetson each will means the regular conference title for the ASUN will quiet literally come down to the wire. I like their chance to remain Quad 2 just because they are one of the superior teams in their conference, but it wouldn't take much to send them down to Quad 3 with the weakness of their competition.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
**For teams that we play twice I will denote the road game with an "@" symbol
My Projection:
Quadrant 1: (1-2)
Wins: Tulsa
Losses: Houston, LSU
Quadrant 2: (0-1)
Wins:
Losses: Liberty
Quadrant 3: (1-0)
Wins: TAMU
Losses:
Quadrant 4: (1-0)
Wins: FAMU
Losses:
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Footnote: Not the most electirc post since I consider most of our opponents to stay in the quad they are in, but alas that is the consequences of only having 6 games under our belt. Would be alot more exciting to write about scrappy teams like Wofford or a Top 25 team that I think we could beat at home like Clemson.
Next Opponent: Mizzou (NET #25) - Great chance at an undeniable Quad 1 win here and a chance to get some real momentum as we head into a very winnable stretch of basketball. Mizzou relies on scoring inside and solid defense to win their games, which means we should theoretically match up well with them. We play at a much faster tempo than them (#21 vs #158 in Adj. Tempo), but unfortunately most of the big upsets they've had this season were at above average tempos, so I don't think we will be able to use it to our advantage.
The most important thing will be for our bigs to stay out of trouble. This is an obvious thing to say, but becomes more obvious when you realize that Mizzou #330 in three-point shooting which means they present virtually no threat. If we can close the lanes, which Frank Martin teams excel at, and force Mizzou to play on the perimeter then we could have a strong chance on their home court.
Another clear advantage we have is rebounding. We are a Top 20 rebounding team on the offensive glass where as they are ranked outsise the Top 200 in Defensive rebounding. The margin is much closer on the other end of the court (#68 vs #123), but the advantage there is still ours.
Now for the bad news...... Mizzou is the 44th team in the country in terms of getting to the free throw line, where as we are one of the worst teams in the country at allowing people to get to the free throw line. Considering that "our bigs playing good defense and not getting into foul trouble so that we can force them outside" will be a huge part of our game plan - this makes this unfortunate stat line a double-edged sword.
Lastly, there defense is strong in limiting the effective FG% of their opponents which conveniently South Carolina has a weak effective FG% themselves. Shots will be hard to come by, and wasted opportunities at the basket (like TJ Moss and Couisnard and Woods missing layups) will come back to bite us hard. We will need Lawson and Couisnard's shots to fall.
Overall, I think we have a better chance than the 32% Odds of Winning KenPom gives us. We are a team of mystery right now since we have only played relatively strong teams (outside of FAMU and TAMU) and have been all over the board in how we've played those games. This makes metrics hard to gauge. While I think this means we have a better than 32% chance of winning and metrics are underrating us, it could also be the opposite. Time will tell, but I'm much more optimistic than I have been in 3 years.
Go Cocks!
Let me know if you have any questions or comments below!
