Quick summation: Hey everyone - as many of you may recall, I do these Tournament Resume posts just to help everyone in walking through how the Gamecocks set up for the postseason. Unfortunately, only once has it ever paid off, but here's to hoping it pays off this year! It's also fun to keep myself knowledgeable on other teams and these tend to always lead to good conversation.
Bracketology Note: Lunardi currently has 7 teams from the SEC heading to the dance, tied for 2nd most of any conference. We are not one of them. This shouldn't come as a shock as South Carolina is always a team that has to prove it deserves to be there and doesn't have any lucky birth rights like some teams. Here is the link to the latest bracketology: https://www.espn.com/espn/feature/s...ology-projecting-2022-march-madness-men-field
What will end these posts: At some point, a fan has to give up on the dreams of a tournament bid. Some folks are already convinced that we are out, and predictively speaking they aren't necessarily wrong; however, I'm dealing with how things stand now. So therefore as long as there is at least some chance of an at-large bid, I'll keep doing these posts. Those that say "there is no chance we make it" could very well be correct in the end, but I'm dealing with right now. So what would it take to officially put these posts to bed?....Whenever (or, if ever) it becomes clear that we would not make it to the tournament without winning the conference, I will stop with these posts.
Enough of that, let's get to it..
Link to an example post from last year (03/04): https://southcarolina.forums.rivals.com/threads/south-carolina-mbb-resume-03-04-2020.326315/
Link to Full NET Rankings: https://www.ncaa.com/rankings/basketball-men/d1/ncaa-mens-basketball-net-rankings
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**For teams that we play twice I will denote with an asterisk
For us:
Quadrant 1: (0-0)
Wins:
Losses:
Quadrant 2: (1-0)
Wins: UAB
Losses:
Quadrant 3: (2-2)
Wins: Wofford, Western Kentucky
Losses: Princeton, Coastal
Quadrant 4: (3-0)
Wins: Georgetown, Upstate, Rider
Losses:
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**Typically, I am only going to highlight teams that have chance to move up or down in the bubble. Some teams are either destined for Quadrant 4 regardless of results at this point and some are sandwiched into one of the other quads with little hope of movement. Post-to-post these teams could change based on upsets/being upset. However, since we are early in the season, I'll atleast mention all of our opponents.
**if a highlight is green -> I think he means they COULD move up, not that I think they will. Red -> COULD move down, not that I think they will.
Notes on teams we've played:
Upstate - This poor team has about a snowball's chance in hell at moving out of Quad 4. They will be the first team I strike off the list in terms of "not going anywhere". They are currently outside the Top 300 in both NET and RPI are projected to be a bottom dweller in their conference. Even if they were to outperform, it would not be enough to push them into the Top 160 in NET, which is what will be required of a team we played at home. Quad 4 and staying there.
Princeton - Currently 103rd in NET and only need to get to 100 to move to Quad 2 territory. This is very doable for this team. They have two losses currently weighing them down, but I don't expect those losses to weight them down much long considering that both Monmouth and Hofstra's strength of schedule will improve in conference play and both teams are considered above average in their conference. Princeton has to do their part too, but with the Ivy League being a three way battle between Yale-Harvard-Princeton with not much else competition except maybe Brown... I think Princeton will help us out. A Quad 2 if they just simply win out their remaining non-cons (very weak teams). If they lose another non-con game and struggle in conference to start I'm afraid they will solidify themselves in Quad 3. I don't really see Quad 4 being an option for this team.
Western Kentucky - Currently 188th in NET. THey have basically had a schedule consisting of us, Minnesota, Memphis (all of which will probably be Quad 1 losses for them in the end)... and then bunch of flat out cupcakes except for maybe Eastern Kentucky but that is still a Quad 4 game. Their NET will go into Quad 2 just by nature of their conference and schedule. Conference USA is a sneaky-good conference with UAB, La Tech, Marshall, and Western Kentucky, and North Texas capable of beating anyone on any given night.
UAB - Currently Net 35th. Need to be Top 30 to be Quad 1. Kenpom currently has them favored to win all of their remaining games (it's not likely, but they are favorited in all of them). Likely staying a Quadrant 2, but if they do win out they could sneak into Quad 1. It's just tough to do not being in a Power 6 conference. Wish this had been a neutral site game.
Wofford - Currently 117th. Was kind of shocked they weren't higher. That will change, and they should end up Quad 2 barring an uncharacteristic implosion in conference. I know it's getting repetitive, but South Carolina has started the year playing against alot of teams that will compete for conference championships and tourney births. Wofford is right up there in competing for the SOCON title with Chattanooga and Furman. ETSU could be a darkhorse, but unlikely.
Rider - Yeah, they aren't going anywhere. There initially was some hope that they would be good opponent, but they have been worse than expected while other teams in their conference have been outperforming expectations. Iona and Monmouth come to mind.
Coastal Carolina - Unless they outperform the rest of the season (doubtful after a home loss to Mercer last night), then they will drop to a Quad 4 loss. Can't have any more of those. The committee kills teams over these unless you have the words "Syracuse" in your name.
Georgetown - They aren't a bad team, they just play in a conference that absolutely eats you alive. This team may very well finish last in the Big East, but would be middle-of-the-pack at worst in all the non-Power 6 conferences. They should move to a Quad 3 win, but I don't see them having the juice to get to Quad 2. They didn't even get to Quad 2 last year when they won the conference tournament.
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**For teams that we play twice I will denote with an asterisk
My Projection:
Quadrant 1: (0-0)
Wins:
Losses:
Quadrant 2: (3-1)
Wins: UAB, Wofford, Western Kentucky
Losses: Princeton
Quadrant 3: (1-0)
Wins: Georgetown
Losses:
Quadrant 4: (2-1)
Wins: Upstate, Rider
Losses: Coastal
I know it may look like I simply bumped our Quad 3s to Quad 2s, but we are lucky in the fact that Princeton and WKU were both neutral site games, which the NET treats much better than home games. Wofford is usually Quad 2 even in what they would call a down year. SO while it may look like I was just bumping people up, I promise that is not the case!
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Next Opponent: @FSU(NET #82) - FSU has had a disappointing year to start, but will likely still be a tourney team when it is all said and done. A win here, at a neutral site, would secure our first Quad 1 win of the season. We would likely be able to follow that up with another Quad 1 win if we took down Clemson on the road. Two wins in the next two games should easily make up for our slip up at Coastal, especially if Coastal somehow manages to outperform expectations.
Thanks everyone who made it this far!
Bracketology Note: Lunardi currently has 7 teams from the SEC heading to the dance, tied for 2nd most of any conference. We are not one of them. This shouldn't come as a shock as South Carolina is always a team that has to prove it deserves to be there and doesn't have any lucky birth rights like some teams. Here is the link to the latest bracketology: https://www.espn.com/espn/feature/s...ology-projecting-2022-march-madness-men-field
What will end these posts: At some point, a fan has to give up on the dreams of a tournament bid. Some folks are already convinced that we are out, and predictively speaking they aren't necessarily wrong; however, I'm dealing with how things stand now. So therefore as long as there is at least some chance of an at-large bid, I'll keep doing these posts. Those that say "there is no chance we make it" could very well be correct in the end, but I'm dealing with right now. So what would it take to officially put these posts to bed?....Whenever (or, if ever) it becomes clear that we would not make it to the tournament without winning the conference, I will stop with these posts.
Enough of that, let's get to it..
Link to an example post from last year (03/04): https://southcarolina.forums.rivals.com/threads/south-carolina-mbb-resume-03-04-2020.326315/
Link to Full NET Rankings: https://www.ncaa.com/rankings/basketball-men/d1/ncaa-mens-basketball-net-rankings
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
**For teams that we play twice I will denote with an asterisk
For us:
Quadrant 1: (0-0)
Wins:
Losses:
Quadrant 2: (1-0)
Wins: UAB
Losses:
Quadrant 3: (2-2)
Wins: Wofford, Western Kentucky
Losses: Princeton, Coastal
Quadrant 4: (3-0)
Wins: Georgetown, Upstate, Rider
Losses:
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**Typically, I am only going to highlight teams that have chance to move up or down in the bubble. Some teams are either destined for Quadrant 4 regardless of results at this point and some are sandwiched into one of the other quads with little hope of movement. Post-to-post these teams could change based on upsets/being upset. However, since we are early in the season, I'll atleast mention all of our opponents.
**if a highlight is green -> I think he means they COULD move up, not that I think they will. Red -> COULD move down, not that I think they will.
Notes on teams we've played:
Upstate - This poor team has about a snowball's chance in hell at moving out of Quad 4. They will be the first team I strike off the list in terms of "not going anywhere". They are currently outside the Top 300 in both NET and RPI are projected to be a bottom dweller in their conference. Even if they were to outperform, it would not be enough to push them into the Top 160 in NET, which is what will be required of a team we played at home. Quad 4 and staying there.
Princeton - Currently 103rd in NET and only need to get to 100 to move to Quad 2 territory. This is very doable for this team. They have two losses currently weighing them down, but I don't expect those losses to weight them down much long considering that both Monmouth and Hofstra's strength of schedule will improve in conference play and both teams are considered above average in their conference. Princeton has to do their part too, but with the Ivy League being a three way battle between Yale-Harvard-Princeton with not much else competition except maybe Brown... I think Princeton will help us out. A Quad 2 if they just simply win out their remaining non-cons (very weak teams). If they lose another non-con game and struggle in conference to start I'm afraid they will solidify themselves in Quad 3. I don't really see Quad 4 being an option for this team.
Western Kentucky - Currently 188th in NET. THey have basically had a schedule consisting of us, Minnesota, Memphis (all of which will probably be Quad 1 losses for them in the end)... and then bunch of flat out cupcakes except for maybe Eastern Kentucky but that is still a Quad 4 game. Their NET will go into Quad 2 just by nature of their conference and schedule. Conference USA is a sneaky-good conference with UAB, La Tech, Marshall, and Western Kentucky, and North Texas capable of beating anyone on any given night.
UAB - Currently Net 35th. Need to be Top 30 to be Quad 1. Kenpom currently has them favored to win all of their remaining games (it's not likely, but they are favorited in all of them). Likely staying a Quadrant 2, but if they do win out they could sneak into Quad 1. It's just tough to do not being in a Power 6 conference. Wish this had been a neutral site game.
Wofford - Currently 117th. Was kind of shocked they weren't higher. That will change, and they should end up Quad 2 barring an uncharacteristic implosion in conference. I know it's getting repetitive, but South Carolina has started the year playing against alot of teams that will compete for conference championships and tourney births. Wofford is right up there in competing for the SOCON title with Chattanooga and Furman. ETSU could be a darkhorse, but unlikely.
Rider - Yeah, they aren't going anywhere. There initially was some hope that they would be good opponent, but they have been worse than expected while other teams in their conference have been outperforming expectations. Iona and Monmouth come to mind.
Coastal Carolina - Unless they outperform the rest of the season (doubtful after a home loss to Mercer last night), then they will drop to a Quad 4 loss. Can't have any more of those. The committee kills teams over these unless you have the words "Syracuse" in your name.
Georgetown - They aren't a bad team, they just play in a conference that absolutely eats you alive. This team may very well finish last in the Big East, but would be middle-of-the-pack at worst in all the non-Power 6 conferences. They should move to a Quad 3 win, but I don't see them having the juice to get to Quad 2. They didn't even get to Quad 2 last year when they won the conference tournament.
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**For teams that we play twice I will denote with an asterisk
My Projection:
Quadrant 1: (0-0)
Wins:
Losses:
Quadrant 2: (3-1)
Wins: UAB, Wofford, Western Kentucky
Losses: Princeton
Quadrant 3: (1-0)
Wins: Georgetown
Losses:
Quadrant 4: (2-1)
Wins: Upstate, Rider
Losses: Coastal
I know it may look like I simply bumped our Quad 3s to Quad 2s, but we are lucky in the fact that Princeton and WKU were both neutral site games, which the NET treats much better than home games. Wofford is usually Quad 2 even in what they would call a down year. SO while it may look like I was just bumping people up, I promise that is not the case!
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Next Opponent: @FSU(NET #82) - FSU has had a disappointing year to start, but will likely still be a tourney team when it is all said and done. A win here, at a neutral site, would secure our first Quad 1 win of the season. We would likely be able to follow that up with another Quad 1 win if we took down Clemson on the road. Two wins in the next two games should easily make up for our slip up at Coastal, especially if Coastal somehow manages to outperform expectations.
Thanks everyone who made it this far!
