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Brian_Edwards
Guest
Note from Shoe: I'd like to welcome Brian Edwards back to Gamecock Central. He's written gambling columns for us - on and off - for 10 years.
Brian is a Senior Handicapper at VegasInsider.com, where he's worked since 2000 and spent a decade as Managing Editor. He's also the owner of BrianEdwardsSports.com and the host of the Games Galore podcast. You can check out his content at MajorWager.com and follow him on Twitter at @vegasbedwards.
Please feel free to chat with him, ask questions and leave comments.
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When a new head coach takes over for the first season of a rebuilding project, it’s a good thing if the team’s strengths are its offensive and defensive lines. That’s exactly the case for Shane Beamer at South Carolina.
According to Phil Steele’s National Unit Rankings in his preseason magazine, the Gamecocks’ defensive line is No. 12 and their offensive line is No. 23. They’re also ranked No. 15 at the running back position.
DraftKings has South Carolina’s season win total at four with a -140 price for the ‘under.’ Bettors taking the Gamecocks’ to go ‘over’ four victories can earn a +120 return (paid $120 on $100 wagers).
Beamer’s bunch has 80/1 odds to win the SEC East and make it to Atlanta for the second time in program history. Georgia is an enormous -450 ‘chalk’ (risk $450 to win $100) to win the SEC East, while Florida is sporting +400 odds. Missouri (16/1), Kentucky (18/1), Tennessee (22/1) and Vanderbilt (200/1) round out the division.
USC is a 200/1 longshot to win the SEC Championship Game at DraftKings. Alabama is the -165 favorite, followed by Georgia (2/1), Texas A&M (11/1), UF (16/1), LSU (18/1), Ole Miss (25/1) and Auburn (30/1). The Gamecocks have 500/1 odds to win the College Football Playoff.
I lean to the ‘over’ on USC’s win total because the schedule works. The Gamecocks will be favorites in at least three games – vs. Eastern Illinois, vs. Troy and vs. Vanderbilt. Unless East Carolina pulls an upset vs. Appalachian St. on Sept. 2, they’ll likely be favored at ECU on Sept. 11, especially if QB Luke Doty is ready to play.
If USC can win those four games, a push becomes a worst-case scenario. There are other winnable games on the schedule, including home games vs. Kentucky and Auburn, in addition to a date with Tennessee in Knoxville. The Gamecocks will probably be underdogs in those games, but they beat Auburn last year.
USC will be a double-digit underdog in games at UGA, at Texas A&M, vs. Florida, vs. Clemson and possibly at Missouri. Nevertheless, with a manageable schedule, an elite defensive line, a veteran offensive line and one of the nation's top RBs in Kevin Harris, I can't see the Gamecocks falling short of four wins.
**Week 1 Picks**
LSU -3 at UCLA: The Bruins are 11-21 straight up and 15-17 against the spread during Chip Kelly’s tenure. They’re just 7-11 both SU and ATS in 18 home games. Thirteen of UCLA’s 21 losses on Kelly’s watch have come by margins of nine points or more.
LSU finished strong last season in Max Johnson’s only two starts, winning 37-34 at sixth-ranked Florida as a 23.5-point road underdog before beating Ole Miss 53-48 as a 1.5-point home ‘dog. Johnson had an 8/1 touchdown-to-interception ratio and two rushing TDs as a true freshman. The Tigers are 9-6 ATS as road favorites under Ed Orgeron.
LSU will enjoy significant advantages in the trenches on both sides of the ball. With former five-star cornerbacks Derek Stingley and Eli Ricks, the Tigers have one of the country’s premier secondaries. The defense also added Clemson transfer LB Mike Jones, who graded out as one of the nation’s best LBs in pass coverage in 2020.
Look for LSU’s defensive line to be up in UCLA QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson’s face for four quarters. I think the Tigers win by double digits.
UL-Lafayette +8.5 at Texas: The Ragin’ Cajuns finished last season with a 10-1 record, with their lone defeat coming by three points vs. Coastal Carolina. They opened the year with a 31-14 win at Iowa St. as 11.5-point road underdogs.
Billy Napier’s team won all six of its road assignments last year, including wins at UAB (the eventual C-USA champs) and at Appalachian St. (which finished 9-3). UL-Lafayette is 7-1-1 ATS with four outright wins in its last nine games as a road underdog.
Senior QB Levi Lewis provides a veteran presence who can make plays with his left arm and his feet. For his career, Lewis has 6,286 passing yards with a stellar 54/14 TD-INT ratio. He also has 745 rushing yards and nine TDs. Lewis averaged 6.1 yards per carry in 2020 and was sacked only seven times.
Steele’s National Unit Rankings have the Ragin’ Cajuns No. 7 on special teams, No. 12 on the offensive line, No. 15 in the secondary and No. 51 at the linebacker positions. They return 19 of 22 starters and lost only 12 lettermen. Napier also brought in nine transfers from out of the portal, including five from Power Five programs.
Texas has a suspect defense that lost three of its top-five tacklers from a unit that gave up 28.5 points per game. The Longhorns have a new coaching staff and a new QB replacing Sam Ehlinger, who is second in program history with 11,436 career passing yards.
I believe we have the makings of a potential upset Saturday in Austin.
Clemson -3 vs. Georgia (in Charlotte): I’m not drinking the JT Daniels Kool-Aid like most other pundits seem to be. As a true freshman at Southern Cal in 2018, the Trojans went 4-7 in Daniels’ 11 starts. He had a 15/11 TD-INT ratio. After tearing his ACL in the 2019 opener, he saw Kedon Slovis take over and thrive, prompting Daniels to transfer to UGA for the 2020 campaign.
Daniels didn’t see the field until late November. He played well in four wins, throwing 10 TD passes compared to two interceptions. However, Daniels wasn’t exactly lighting up the toughest of competition.
In his first start for UGA, the Bulldogs were 25-point home favorites vs. a Mississippi St. team that brought only 43 scholarship players to Athens due to positive COVID-19 test results and opt-outs. Nevertheless, the game was tied with 10 minutes left and UGA only won by a 31-24 count.
Then when the Bulldogs came to Columbia, Will Muschamp had already been fired. More importantly, first-round draft pick Jaycee Horn had opted out along with sixth-round selection Israel Mukuamu, who had three interceptions and a pick-six at UGA in 2019.
Daniels feasted on the Gamecocks and did the same thing at Missouri the following week. In the Peach Bowl, UGA rallied to nip Cincinnati, 24-21.
Georgia is dealing with injuries galore. Star WR George Pickens is out after tearing his ACL during spring practice. Dominick Blaylock, one of UGA’s top WRs in 2019 who tore his ACL last August, still isn’t ready to return. TE Arik Gilbert has left the team for personal reasons, while TE Darnell Washington and DB Tykee Smith are out with a foot injuries.
I think Clemson QB DJ Uiagalelei is poised for a breakout campaign. The former five-star recruit was outstanding as a true freshman, throwing five TD passes without an interception and rushing for four TDs. Uiagalelei will benefit from the return of WR Justyn Ross, who missed last season (neck) but had 1,865 receiving yards and 17 TD catches in 2018 and ’19.
*** Please ask questions and leave comments.
Brian is a Senior Handicapper at VegasInsider.com, where he's worked since 2000 and spent a decade as Managing Editor. He's also the owner of BrianEdwardsSports.com and the host of the Games Galore podcast. You can check out his content at MajorWager.com and follow him on Twitter at @vegasbedwards.
Please feel free to chat with him, ask questions and leave comments.
+++++++++++++++++++++
When a new head coach takes over for the first season of a rebuilding project, it’s a good thing if the team’s strengths are its offensive and defensive lines. That’s exactly the case for Shane Beamer at South Carolina.
According to Phil Steele’s National Unit Rankings in his preseason magazine, the Gamecocks’ defensive line is No. 12 and their offensive line is No. 23. They’re also ranked No. 15 at the running back position.
DraftKings has South Carolina’s season win total at four with a -140 price for the ‘under.’ Bettors taking the Gamecocks’ to go ‘over’ four victories can earn a +120 return (paid $120 on $100 wagers).
Beamer’s bunch has 80/1 odds to win the SEC East and make it to Atlanta for the second time in program history. Georgia is an enormous -450 ‘chalk’ (risk $450 to win $100) to win the SEC East, while Florida is sporting +400 odds. Missouri (16/1), Kentucky (18/1), Tennessee (22/1) and Vanderbilt (200/1) round out the division.
USC is a 200/1 longshot to win the SEC Championship Game at DraftKings. Alabama is the -165 favorite, followed by Georgia (2/1), Texas A&M (11/1), UF (16/1), LSU (18/1), Ole Miss (25/1) and Auburn (30/1). The Gamecocks have 500/1 odds to win the College Football Playoff.
I lean to the ‘over’ on USC’s win total because the schedule works. The Gamecocks will be favorites in at least three games – vs. Eastern Illinois, vs. Troy and vs. Vanderbilt. Unless East Carolina pulls an upset vs. Appalachian St. on Sept. 2, they’ll likely be favored at ECU on Sept. 11, especially if QB Luke Doty is ready to play.
If USC can win those four games, a push becomes a worst-case scenario. There are other winnable games on the schedule, including home games vs. Kentucky and Auburn, in addition to a date with Tennessee in Knoxville. The Gamecocks will probably be underdogs in those games, but they beat Auburn last year.
USC will be a double-digit underdog in games at UGA, at Texas A&M, vs. Florida, vs. Clemson and possibly at Missouri. Nevertheless, with a manageable schedule, an elite defensive line, a veteran offensive line and one of the nation's top RBs in Kevin Harris, I can't see the Gamecocks falling short of four wins.
**Week 1 Picks**
LSU -3 at UCLA: The Bruins are 11-21 straight up and 15-17 against the spread during Chip Kelly’s tenure. They’re just 7-11 both SU and ATS in 18 home games. Thirteen of UCLA’s 21 losses on Kelly’s watch have come by margins of nine points or more.
LSU finished strong last season in Max Johnson’s only two starts, winning 37-34 at sixth-ranked Florida as a 23.5-point road underdog before beating Ole Miss 53-48 as a 1.5-point home ‘dog. Johnson had an 8/1 touchdown-to-interception ratio and two rushing TDs as a true freshman. The Tigers are 9-6 ATS as road favorites under Ed Orgeron.
LSU will enjoy significant advantages in the trenches on both sides of the ball. With former five-star cornerbacks Derek Stingley and Eli Ricks, the Tigers have one of the country’s premier secondaries. The defense also added Clemson transfer LB Mike Jones, who graded out as one of the nation’s best LBs in pass coverage in 2020.
Look for LSU’s defensive line to be up in UCLA QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson’s face for four quarters. I think the Tigers win by double digits.
UL-Lafayette +8.5 at Texas: The Ragin’ Cajuns finished last season with a 10-1 record, with their lone defeat coming by three points vs. Coastal Carolina. They opened the year with a 31-14 win at Iowa St. as 11.5-point road underdogs.
Billy Napier’s team won all six of its road assignments last year, including wins at UAB (the eventual C-USA champs) and at Appalachian St. (which finished 9-3). UL-Lafayette is 7-1-1 ATS with four outright wins in its last nine games as a road underdog.
Senior QB Levi Lewis provides a veteran presence who can make plays with his left arm and his feet. For his career, Lewis has 6,286 passing yards with a stellar 54/14 TD-INT ratio. He also has 745 rushing yards and nine TDs. Lewis averaged 6.1 yards per carry in 2020 and was sacked only seven times.
Steele’s National Unit Rankings have the Ragin’ Cajuns No. 7 on special teams, No. 12 on the offensive line, No. 15 in the secondary and No. 51 at the linebacker positions. They return 19 of 22 starters and lost only 12 lettermen. Napier also brought in nine transfers from out of the portal, including five from Power Five programs.
Texas has a suspect defense that lost three of its top-five tacklers from a unit that gave up 28.5 points per game. The Longhorns have a new coaching staff and a new QB replacing Sam Ehlinger, who is second in program history with 11,436 career passing yards.
I believe we have the makings of a potential upset Saturday in Austin.
Clemson -3 vs. Georgia (in Charlotte): I’m not drinking the JT Daniels Kool-Aid like most other pundits seem to be. As a true freshman at Southern Cal in 2018, the Trojans went 4-7 in Daniels’ 11 starts. He had a 15/11 TD-INT ratio. After tearing his ACL in the 2019 opener, he saw Kedon Slovis take over and thrive, prompting Daniels to transfer to UGA for the 2020 campaign.
Daniels didn’t see the field until late November. He played well in four wins, throwing 10 TD passes compared to two interceptions. However, Daniels wasn’t exactly lighting up the toughest of competition.
In his first start for UGA, the Bulldogs were 25-point home favorites vs. a Mississippi St. team that brought only 43 scholarship players to Athens due to positive COVID-19 test results and opt-outs. Nevertheless, the game was tied with 10 minutes left and UGA only won by a 31-24 count.
Then when the Bulldogs came to Columbia, Will Muschamp had already been fired. More importantly, first-round draft pick Jaycee Horn had opted out along with sixth-round selection Israel Mukuamu, who had three interceptions and a pick-six at UGA in 2019.
Daniels feasted on the Gamecocks and did the same thing at Missouri the following week. In the Peach Bowl, UGA rallied to nip Cincinnati, 24-21.
Georgia is dealing with injuries galore. Star WR George Pickens is out after tearing his ACL during spring practice. Dominick Blaylock, one of UGA’s top WRs in 2019 who tore his ACL last August, still isn’t ready to return. TE Arik Gilbert has left the team for personal reasons, while TE Darnell Washington and DB Tykee Smith are out with a foot injuries.
I think Clemson QB DJ Uiagalelei is poised for a breakout campaign. The former five-star recruit was outstanding as a true freshman, throwing five TD passes without an interception and rushing for four TDs. Uiagalelei will benefit from the return of WR Justyn Ross, who missed last season (neck) but had 1,865 receiving yards and 17 TD catches in 2018 and ’19.
*** Please ask questions and leave comments.
