Well, the NET is now #112 and USC has virtually no hope of making the tournament. If USC can go 9-4 over the next 13, which would include at worst a 5-4 record in Quad 1 and Quad 2 games and a great last 10 would probably be enough. However, who actually believes this can happen.
1. Upcoming schedule: USC projected to go 4-9 in the last 13 games (2-11 is realistic) and should barely be a favorite over Quad 3 Vanderbilt at home. The next two games are must win.
After these two, USC is dog against (approximately) at Texas A&M (+8.4), at Miss State (+10.1), v. Tennessee (+7), v. Kentucky (+10.5), at Mississippi (+4.5), v. LSU (+9), v. Miss State (+3), at Alabama (+14.6) and at Auburn (+18.6). USC should be favored (approximately) v. Georgie (-8.1), v. Vanderbilt (-0.5), at Georgia (-0.6), and v. Missouri (-7.9).
2. Lost the Team x2
After the Arkansas game, GCC's own Mike Uva tweeted the following: "I asked Frank Martin about the decision not to play Jermaine Cousinard or AJ Wilson tonight. He said they need to get to a place mentally where they are able to do what they're being asked to. There was no plan to not play them and that they needed to stay ready if called upon."
I think this statement is telling because it indicates that Cousinard and Wilson are not buying into what Frank is selling. So, he's lost a big core of the team and is a big indicator that 9-4 is impossible. Pair this with the debacle of last season and I don't think anyone can legitimately buy Frank's "I know what what went wrong and I am the one to fix it." Many of y'all don't like him anyway but I think the Frank fans and the hopeful folks can't think this is a tenable situation moving past this year.
Personally, I'm seeing a lot of Msuchamp, "I'm not changing. I know how to win" and we know how that play out.
3. The missing #4 and beating the AJ Wilson horse, again.
At one point in the season, USC had the #2 2-pt defense in the nation. In fairness, this is not an adjusted number but indicated at least some defensive competence and the core of Frank's defensive philosophy. In SEC play, teams are now shooting 53.7% in 2-pt shooting. I believe this is because we have absolutely no #4 on the court in our man-to-man defense.
Since AJ Wilson either mouthed-off or did whatever to enter the doghouse, USC gave up 50% to Tennessee, 74.1% to Florida and 50.0% to Arkansas. In watching the games, it appears most of these points are passes off of double team by #5 or second chance points due to lack of defensive rebounding (11th in the SEC).
USC cannot be successful with Bryant and Martin playing the #4. The two guys are #10 and #12 on the team in (SEC) Player Efficiency Rating and are replacing the #1 player in Wilson. Bryant is fine at offensive rebounding and Martin plays hard but these guys are purely over their heads playing #4. This is why Carolina is much more successful playing zone defense than man-to-man. Well, Frank isn't doing enough zone, isn't playing Wilson and isn't even trying to play two bigs in man-to-man.
Other AJ Wilson SEC stats - #1 in true shooting percentage, #3 in offensive rebounding percentage, #1 in defensive rebounding percentage, #3 is assist percentage, #3 in block percentage, #2 in turnover percentage, #1 in win share per 40 minutes (only player considered above average on the team).
4. The mirage of the 7 point lead against Arkansas
It did look like Brian Steele did a good job game planning for Arkansas and integrating D. Carter into an attack offense that too Arkansas off their game. However, a lot of the offensive success was due to going +6 with Vanover on the Court for Arkansas and a couple late deep threes. Add in foul trouble for Williams an Notae (Arkansas -15 in the first half with Notae on the bench; -10 in the first half with Williams on the bench -- some of it overlapped). Once, Arkansas got into halftime and made their adjustments, they stopped USC's offense and exploited the #4 hole and shot 57.7% on 2-pointers in the second half (40.9% in the first half) and a 26-8 advantage in the paint.
Georgia is mediocre to terrible in most categories, especially defense. However, they do not foul much and they #1 in free throw percentage. USC's over-fouling may be the thing that keeps Georgia in the game and will be something to look at tomorrow.
Love to hear additional thoughts.
1. Upcoming schedule: USC projected to go 4-9 in the last 13 games (2-11 is realistic) and should barely be a favorite over Quad 3 Vanderbilt at home. The next two games are must win.
After these two, USC is dog against (approximately) at Texas A&M (+8.4), at Miss State (+10.1), v. Tennessee (+7), v. Kentucky (+10.5), at Mississippi (+4.5), v. LSU (+9), v. Miss State (+3), at Alabama (+14.6) and at Auburn (+18.6). USC should be favored (approximately) v. Georgie (-8.1), v. Vanderbilt (-0.5), at Georgia (-0.6), and v. Missouri (-7.9).
2. Lost the Team x2
After the Arkansas game, GCC's own Mike Uva tweeted the following: "I asked Frank Martin about the decision not to play Jermaine Cousinard or AJ Wilson tonight. He said they need to get to a place mentally where they are able to do what they're being asked to. There was no plan to not play them and that they needed to stay ready if called upon."
I think this statement is telling because it indicates that Cousinard and Wilson are not buying into what Frank is selling. So, he's lost a big core of the team and is a big indicator that 9-4 is impossible. Pair this with the debacle of last season and I don't think anyone can legitimately buy Frank's "I know what what went wrong and I am the one to fix it." Many of y'all don't like him anyway but I think the Frank fans and the hopeful folks can't think this is a tenable situation moving past this year.
Personally, I'm seeing a lot of Msuchamp, "I'm not changing. I know how to win" and we know how that play out.
3. The missing #4 and beating the AJ Wilson horse, again.
At one point in the season, USC had the #2 2-pt defense in the nation. In fairness, this is not an adjusted number but indicated at least some defensive competence and the core of Frank's defensive philosophy. In SEC play, teams are now shooting 53.7% in 2-pt shooting. I believe this is because we have absolutely no #4 on the court in our man-to-man defense.
Since AJ Wilson either mouthed-off or did whatever to enter the doghouse, USC gave up 50% to Tennessee, 74.1% to Florida and 50.0% to Arkansas. In watching the games, it appears most of these points are passes off of double team by #5 or second chance points due to lack of defensive rebounding (11th in the SEC).
USC cannot be successful with Bryant and Martin playing the #4. The two guys are #10 and #12 on the team in (SEC) Player Efficiency Rating and are replacing the #1 player in Wilson. Bryant is fine at offensive rebounding and Martin plays hard but these guys are purely over their heads playing #4. This is why Carolina is much more successful playing zone defense than man-to-man. Well, Frank isn't doing enough zone, isn't playing Wilson and isn't even trying to play two bigs in man-to-man.
Other AJ Wilson SEC stats - #1 in true shooting percentage, #3 in offensive rebounding percentage, #1 in defensive rebounding percentage, #3 is assist percentage, #3 in block percentage, #2 in turnover percentage, #1 in win share per 40 minutes (only player considered above average on the team).
4. The mirage of the 7 point lead against Arkansas
It did look like Brian Steele did a good job game planning for Arkansas and integrating D. Carter into an attack offense that too Arkansas off their game. However, a lot of the offensive success was due to going +6 with Vanover on the Court for Arkansas and a couple late deep threes. Add in foul trouble for Williams an Notae (Arkansas -15 in the first half with Notae on the bench; -10 in the first half with Williams on the bench -- some of it overlapped). Once, Arkansas got into halftime and made their adjustments, they stopped USC's offense and exploited the #4 hole and shot 57.7% on 2-pointers in the second half (40.9% in the first half) and a 26-8 advantage in the paint.
Georgia is mediocre to terrible in most categories, especially defense. However, they do not foul much and they #1 in free throw percentage. USC's over-fouling may be the thing that keeps Georgia in the game and will be something to look at tomorrow.
Love to hear additional thoughts.