B
Brian_Edwards
Guest
Note from Shoe: I'd like to welcome Brian Edwards back to Gamecock Central. He's written gambling columns for us - on and off - for 10 years.
Brian is a Senior Handicapper at VegasInsider.com, where he's worked since 2000 and spent a decade as Managing Editor. He's also the owner of BrianEdwardsSports.com and the host of the Games Galore podcast. You can check out his content at MajorWager.com and follow him on Twitter at @vegasbedwards.
Please feel free to chat with him, ask questions and leave comments.
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As we’ve discussed in the forum this week, this USC at East Carolina line has been jumping around all week. Like @Reddfoxx1 pointed out, this isn’t overly unusual when a number is close to pick ‘em, especially when a player of Kevin Harris’s ilk goes from a questionable status to seemingly certain to play (per Shane Beamer’s comments after Tuesday’s practice).
Oh, and there’s also the uncertain status of starting quarterback Luke Doty. If he is unable to go – and OC Marcus Satterfield says “it’s definitely going to be close” – then the Gamecocks will be starting a QB that was a grad assistant less than a month ago.
Speaking of the former grad assistant, Zeb Noland had a solid debut at Williams-Brice Stadium. He threw for 121 yards and four touchdowns without an interception in helping USC to a 46-0 win over Eastern Illinois as a 31.5-point home favorite. The 46 combined points dropped ‘under’ the 55.5-point total.
The South Carolina defense limited Eastern Illinois to nine first downs and 109 yards of total offense, in addition to forcing two turnovers.
As of Thursday morning, most books had the Gamecocks listed as two-point road favorites with a total of 56.5. The Pirates were +110 on the money line (risk $100 to win $110 if ECU wins outright).
USC went 1-0 against the spread in its lone role as a road favorite last year, thumping Vanderbilt 41-7 as a 13.5-point ‘chalk’ in Nashville. The Gamecocks went 2-1 ATS in just three road favorite spots during Will Muschamp’s five-year tenure. They’re 4-7-2 ATS as road favorites since 2011.
ECU is 4-4 ATS in eight games as a home underdog during Mike Houston’s three-year tenure. The Pirates finished last season 3-6 straight up and 5-4 ATS. They had wins at USF (44-24) and at Temple (28-3), but the Bulls and Owls combined to go 2-14. USF’s win came over The Citadel, while Temple’s victory came over USF.
But in the regular-season finale, Houston’s team took on a 7-2 SMU squad as a 12-point home underdog. The Pirates played their best game of the season, winning 52-38.
ECU opened its season last Thursday in Charlotte against Appalachian St. The Mountaineers won a 33-19 decision and covered the spread as nine-point favorites. The 52 combined points stayed ‘under’ the 56-point total. ECU scored 10 points in the final 6:25 to make the final score look more respectable.
Whether it’s Doty or Noland, I’m of the opinion that East Carolina has the QB advantage in this game. Holton Ahlers has started 26 career games for the Pirates. He completed 22-of-40 passes for 295 yards and two TDs with one interception vs. Appalachian St.
For his career, Ahlers has 7,388 passing yards with a 53/23 touchdown-to-interception ratio. He also has 1,074 career rushing yards and 13 TDs.
ECU returned nine starters on offense and 10 on defense from last year’s team. The Pirates’ defense gave up an average of 35.4 points per game in 2020. If we discount the win over Temple when they limited the Owls to three points, the Pirates gave up 39.5 PPG in their other eight games.
Appalachian St. produced 226 rushing yards on 36 attempts, averaging 6.3 yards per carry. That’s good news for Harris, who garnered second-team All-SEC honors by rushing for 1,138 yards and 15 TDs with a 6.2 YPC average in 2020.
PREDICTION: I like South Carolina -2 vs. ECU. I’ll call it, 28-23.
**Other Picks**
Eastern Michigan +26 at Wisconsin: EMU has been incredible as a road underdog since October of 2016, compiling a 19-2 spread record with nine outright victories in 21 such spots. They’ve also won outright in three consecutive road games against Big Ten foes, winning at Illinois in 2019, at Purdue in 2018 and at Rutgers in 2017. Wisconsin has limped to a 5-12 ATS mark in its last 17 games as a home favorite, including last week’s 16-10 loss to Penn St. as a 5.5-point ‘chalk’ at Camp Randall.
Paul Chryst’s team will be without star LB Leo Chanal, who had 46 tackles, seven QB hurries, six tackles for loss, three sacks, one interception and one pass broken up in 2020. He’s ‘out’ for healthy and safety reasons. The status of RB Jalen Berger remains a question mark. Berger dressed out last week but didn’t touch the field. He led the Badgers in rushing yards (301) last year and averaged 5.0 YPC.
The play of QB Graham Mertz is even more concerning. Since throwing seven TD passes without an interception in wins at Illinois (45-7) and at Michigan (49-11) to start the 2020 campaign, Mertz has a 2/7 TD-INT ratio and the Badgers have lost four of six games. They’ve scored 30 combined points for a 7.5 PPG average in the four defeats. Yikes!
Kentucky -5 vs. Missouri: New Kentucky QB Will Levis, a transfer from Penn St., displayed a big arm and looked fantastic in UK’s 45-10 home win over ULM. Levis threw for 367 yards and four TDs with one interception, but the pick hit a UK receiver in the hands before bouncing to a ULM defender. The Wildcats landed Nebraska’s best WR out of the transfer portal in Wan’Dale Robinson, who had five receptions for 125 yards and two TDs in his UK debut. Levis’s arm and Robinson’s speed give UK’s passing game the pop it has lacked for many years.
Central Michigan had more first downs (27-22) and total yards (475-468) in last week’s 34-24 loss at Missouri. The Tigers got most of their offensive production from RB Tyler Badie, who ran for 203 yards against the Chippewas. Granted, it was ULM, but we’ll nonetheless note that UK’s run defense limited the Warhawks to 17 rushing yards on 43 attempts.
Kentucky lost 20-10 at Missouri last year, but that was when it had zero threat of a passing attack. Levis seems to have solved that issue. I like the ‘Cats to avenge last year’s loss and win by at least a TD.
UAB +24.5 at Georgia: Kudos to UGA for taking my money and picking up a monster win over Clemson last week. Obviously, the Bulldogs appear to have one of the nation’s premier defenses. However, the offense has issues galore.
I said all summer that I’m not drinking the JT Daniels’ Kool-Aid like so many pundits seemed to be during the offseason. But in fairness to him, he’s missing a lot of key personnel. TE Arik Gilbert, TE Darnell Washington, WR Dominick Blaylock and WR George Pickens didn’t play vs. Clemson. WR Kearis Jackson, who led UGA in catches (36) and receiving yards (514) in 2020, only played on special teams against the Tigers. He’s still working his way back from an ankle injury.
Gilbert is away from the team for personal reasons and is ‘out’ again this week. Whether he’ll return soon, at all or later in the season remains unclear. Washington and Blaylock are reportedly close to being back, officially listed as ‘questionable’ vs. UAB. Pickens tore his ACL in spring practice and might be able to play at some point in November.
UAB beat Jacksonville St. 31-0 last Wednesday night in Montgomery. When UGA was slugging it out with Clemson in Charlotte on Saturday night, the Blazers were relaxing and watching their next opponent on television.
This is a vintage letdown scenario for the Bulldogs, who were gunning for Clemson throughout the entire offseason. UGA has struggled as a home favorite during Kirby Smart’s tenure, going 11-16 ATS in 27 such spots.
UAB has been to the C-USA Championship Game three years in a row, winning it last year and in 2018. The Blazers are 30-14 in their last 46 games. Their defense has given up an average of 17.0, 21.6 and 21.4 PPG in 2018, ’19 and ’20, respectively.
I was able to grab UAB +27 on Sunday night, but I still like the Blazers if they’re catching at least 24 points.
**NOTE: I’ll add more plays to this thread when first-quarter and first-half lines become available later in the week. Good luck, everybody!
Brian is a Senior Handicapper at VegasInsider.com, where he's worked since 2000 and spent a decade as Managing Editor. He's also the owner of BrianEdwardsSports.com and the host of the Games Galore podcast. You can check out his content at MajorWager.com and follow him on Twitter at @vegasbedwards.
Please feel free to chat with him, ask questions and leave comments.
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As we’ve discussed in the forum this week, this USC at East Carolina line has been jumping around all week. Like @Reddfoxx1 pointed out, this isn’t overly unusual when a number is close to pick ‘em, especially when a player of Kevin Harris’s ilk goes from a questionable status to seemingly certain to play (per Shane Beamer’s comments after Tuesday’s practice).
Oh, and there’s also the uncertain status of starting quarterback Luke Doty. If he is unable to go – and OC Marcus Satterfield says “it’s definitely going to be close” – then the Gamecocks will be starting a QB that was a grad assistant less than a month ago.
Speaking of the former grad assistant, Zeb Noland had a solid debut at Williams-Brice Stadium. He threw for 121 yards and four touchdowns without an interception in helping USC to a 46-0 win over Eastern Illinois as a 31.5-point home favorite. The 46 combined points dropped ‘under’ the 55.5-point total.
The South Carolina defense limited Eastern Illinois to nine first downs and 109 yards of total offense, in addition to forcing two turnovers.
As of Thursday morning, most books had the Gamecocks listed as two-point road favorites with a total of 56.5. The Pirates were +110 on the money line (risk $100 to win $110 if ECU wins outright).
USC went 1-0 against the spread in its lone role as a road favorite last year, thumping Vanderbilt 41-7 as a 13.5-point ‘chalk’ in Nashville. The Gamecocks went 2-1 ATS in just three road favorite spots during Will Muschamp’s five-year tenure. They’re 4-7-2 ATS as road favorites since 2011.
ECU is 4-4 ATS in eight games as a home underdog during Mike Houston’s three-year tenure. The Pirates finished last season 3-6 straight up and 5-4 ATS. They had wins at USF (44-24) and at Temple (28-3), but the Bulls and Owls combined to go 2-14. USF’s win came over The Citadel, while Temple’s victory came over USF.
But in the regular-season finale, Houston’s team took on a 7-2 SMU squad as a 12-point home underdog. The Pirates played their best game of the season, winning 52-38.
ECU opened its season last Thursday in Charlotte against Appalachian St. The Mountaineers won a 33-19 decision and covered the spread as nine-point favorites. The 52 combined points stayed ‘under’ the 56-point total. ECU scored 10 points in the final 6:25 to make the final score look more respectable.
Whether it’s Doty or Noland, I’m of the opinion that East Carolina has the QB advantage in this game. Holton Ahlers has started 26 career games for the Pirates. He completed 22-of-40 passes for 295 yards and two TDs with one interception vs. Appalachian St.
For his career, Ahlers has 7,388 passing yards with a 53/23 touchdown-to-interception ratio. He also has 1,074 career rushing yards and 13 TDs.
ECU returned nine starters on offense and 10 on defense from last year’s team. The Pirates’ defense gave up an average of 35.4 points per game in 2020. If we discount the win over Temple when they limited the Owls to three points, the Pirates gave up 39.5 PPG in their other eight games.
Appalachian St. produced 226 rushing yards on 36 attempts, averaging 6.3 yards per carry. That’s good news for Harris, who garnered second-team All-SEC honors by rushing for 1,138 yards and 15 TDs with a 6.2 YPC average in 2020.
PREDICTION: I like South Carolina -2 vs. ECU. I’ll call it, 28-23.
**Other Picks**
Eastern Michigan +26 at Wisconsin: EMU has been incredible as a road underdog since October of 2016, compiling a 19-2 spread record with nine outright victories in 21 such spots. They’ve also won outright in three consecutive road games against Big Ten foes, winning at Illinois in 2019, at Purdue in 2018 and at Rutgers in 2017. Wisconsin has limped to a 5-12 ATS mark in its last 17 games as a home favorite, including last week’s 16-10 loss to Penn St. as a 5.5-point ‘chalk’ at Camp Randall.
Paul Chryst’s team will be without star LB Leo Chanal, who had 46 tackles, seven QB hurries, six tackles for loss, three sacks, one interception and one pass broken up in 2020. He’s ‘out’ for healthy and safety reasons. The status of RB Jalen Berger remains a question mark. Berger dressed out last week but didn’t touch the field. He led the Badgers in rushing yards (301) last year and averaged 5.0 YPC.
The play of QB Graham Mertz is even more concerning. Since throwing seven TD passes without an interception in wins at Illinois (45-7) and at Michigan (49-11) to start the 2020 campaign, Mertz has a 2/7 TD-INT ratio and the Badgers have lost four of six games. They’ve scored 30 combined points for a 7.5 PPG average in the four defeats. Yikes!
Kentucky -5 vs. Missouri: New Kentucky QB Will Levis, a transfer from Penn St., displayed a big arm and looked fantastic in UK’s 45-10 home win over ULM. Levis threw for 367 yards and four TDs with one interception, but the pick hit a UK receiver in the hands before bouncing to a ULM defender. The Wildcats landed Nebraska’s best WR out of the transfer portal in Wan’Dale Robinson, who had five receptions for 125 yards and two TDs in his UK debut. Levis’s arm and Robinson’s speed give UK’s passing game the pop it has lacked for many years.
Central Michigan had more first downs (27-22) and total yards (475-468) in last week’s 34-24 loss at Missouri. The Tigers got most of their offensive production from RB Tyler Badie, who ran for 203 yards against the Chippewas. Granted, it was ULM, but we’ll nonetheless note that UK’s run defense limited the Warhawks to 17 rushing yards on 43 attempts.
Kentucky lost 20-10 at Missouri last year, but that was when it had zero threat of a passing attack. Levis seems to have solved that issue. I like the ‘Cats to avenge last year’s loss and win by at least a TD.
UAB +24.5 at Georgia: Kudos to UGA for taking my money and picking up a monster win over Clemson last week. Obviously, the Bulldogs appear to have one of the nation’s premier defenses. However, the offense has issues galore.
I said all summer that I’m not drinking the JT Daniels’ Kool-Aid like so many pundits seemed to be during the offseason. But in fairness to him, he’s missing a lot of key personnel. TE Arik Gilbert, TE Darnell Washington, WR Dominick Blaylock and WR George Pickens didn’t play vs. Clemson. WR Kearis Jackson, who led UGA in catches (36) and receiving yards (514) in 2020, only played on special teams against the Tigers. He’s still working his way back from an ankle injury.
Gilbert is away from the team for personal reasons and is ‘out’ again this week. Whether he’ll return soon, at all or later in the season remains unclear. Washington and Blaylock are reportedly close to being back, officially listed as ‘questionable’ vs. UAB. Pickens tore his ACL in spring practice and might be able to play at some point in November.
UAB beat Jacksonville St. 31-0 last Wednesday night in Montgomery. When UGA was slugging it out with Clemson in Charlotte on Saturday night, the Blazers were relaxing and watching their next opponent on television.
This is a vintage letdown scenario for the Bulldogs, who were gunning for Clemson throughout the entire offseason. UGA has struggled as a home favorite during Kirby Smart’s tenure, going 11-16 ATS in 27 such spots.
UAB has been to the C-USA Championship Game three years in a row, winning it last year and in 2018. The Blazers are 30-14 in their last 46 games. Their defense has given up an average of 17.0, 21.6 and 21.4 PPG in 2018, ’19 and ’20, respectively.
I was able to grab UAB +27 on Sunday night, but I still like the Blazers if they’re catching at least 24 points.
**NOTE: I’ll add more plays to this thread when first-quarter and first-half lines become available later in the week. Good luck, everybody!
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