B
Brian_Edwards
Guest
Note from Shoe: I'd like to welcome Brian Edwards back to Gamecock Central. He's written gambling columns for us - on and off - for 10 years.
Brian is a Senior Handicapper at VegasInsider.com, where he's worked since 2000 and spent a decade as Managing Editor. He's also the owner of BrianEdwardsSports.com and the host of the Games Galore podcast. You can check out his content at MajorWager.com and follow him on Twitter at @vegasbedwards.
Please feel free to chat with him, ask questions and leave comments.
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South Carolina improved to 2-0 both straight up and against the spread by rallying from a 14-0 deficit to win 20-17 at East Carolina on Parker White’s 36-yard field goal as time expired. The Gamecocks covered the spread as 2.5-point road favorites, while the 37 combined points dropped ‘under’ the 56.5-point total.
Things weren’t looking good late in the second quarter. USC was down 14-0 and ECU was on the cusp of field-goal range at USC’s 37-yard line with 1:13 left in the second quarter. At the very least, the Gamecocks needed a stop to keep it a two-possession game going into halftime.
ECU quarterback Holton Ahlers tried to throw a middle screen to his running back, who couldn’t handle the pass. When the ball bounced off the RB and into the air, senior linebacker Damani Staley intercepted it and returned it 63 yards for a touchdown.
With Staley’s big play, USC was back in the game and had momentum going into the third quarter. The Gamecocks pulled even when QB Zeb Noland found WR Dakereon Joyner for a 13-yard scoring strike to make it 14-14.
After ECU went in front 17-14, USC answered with 6:46 left on White’s tying 39-yard FG to knot the score at 17-17. Next, USC forced ECU’s offense into a three and out.
With 4:25 remaining, the Gamecocks took over on their own 28. JuJu McDowell gained 23 yards on two carries to get USC into ECU territory. Three plays later, a 16-yard run by McDowell put the Gamecocks on the ECU 19 with 37 ticks left. From there, USC killed the clock and centered the ball to set up White’s game winner.
Now the competition gets tougher in Week 3 with South Carolina set to visit Athens and take on second-ranked Georgia. Circa, the first book in Las Vegas to send out an opening line this past Sunday afternoon, opened UGA as a 32-point home favorite with a total of 47.
A few hours later, the line was down to 30 and the total was up to 48 points. By Monday afternoon, most betting shops had the Bulldogs installed as 31-point home ‘chalk’ with a total of 48.5. Since then, the spread has inched up to 31.5 and a few books were at -32 as of early Thursday morning. The total was 48 at most shops with a few spots at 47.5.
FanDuel has the Gamecocks at +3500 on the money line, while DraftKings has them at +2500 to win outright (paid $2,500 on $100 wagers).
When South Carolina came to Athens in 2019, it was listed as a 20.5-point road underdog. Even though starting QB Ryan Hilinski left the game with a knee injury in the second quarter, the Gamecocks were able to win 20-17 in double overtime on White’s 24-yard field goal.
Cornerback Israel Mukuamu was the hero, intercepting Jake Fromm three times, including a 53-yard pick-six with 1:00 left in the second quarter to stake USC to a 17-10 lead at intermission. Mukuamu intercepted Fromm again on UGA’s possession at the start of the second OT.
The visitor has covered the spread five times in a row in this rivalry, winning outright in four of those five contests. UGA avenged the 2019 loss by going into Williams-Brice Stadium and capturing a 45-16 win as a 22-point road ‘chalk’ last year. However, the season was already a lost cause for USC with its head coach fired and DBs Jaycee Horn and Mukuamu already opting out.
Despite limping to a 1-6 against-the-spread record in its last seven games as a double-digit underdog, USC is 13-10-1 ATS in its last 24 games as a double-digit ‘dog in the past decade. This is USC’s richest underdog situation in more than a decade. The Gamecocks have been 27-point underdogs three times recently, vs. Alabama and vs. Clemson in 2019, and again at Clemson in 2016. They went 1-2 ATS in those three games.
Georgia smashed UAB 56-7 as a 22.5-point home favorite last week despite the absence of starting QB JT Daniels. His backup, Stetson Bennett, threw five TD passes without an interception. However, Bennett and Daniels were both listed as ‘questionable’ vs. USC as of early Thursday. Daniels is dealing with an oblique issue and Bennett has been coping with back spasms.
According to The Athletic’s Seth Emerson, Bennett and Daniels both practiced Wednesday, sharing reps with QB Carson Beck. On Tuesday, Kirby Smart said, “I don’t know that [Daniels] is 100 percent, but he’s certainly getting closer to that.”
UGA still has several other key players injured. The Bulldogs will be without their two best tight ends – Arik Gilbert and Darnell Washington – and their best WR (George Pickens) vs. USC. DB Tykee Smith is listed as ‘doubtful,’ and WR Dominick Blaylock is ‘questionable.’ Blaylock still hasn’t touched the field since tearing his ACL last August.
PREDICTION: I’ve unsuccessfully gone against Georgia in back-to-back weeks. Although I’m not implying it’s one of my top picks of Week 3, I’m going to try the Bulldogs again. It’s a small opinion, but I’ll go with the Gamecocks +32. I think UGA wins a 38-13 type of game.
**Other Picks**
Alabama at Florida ‘OVER’ 59.5: These teams combined for 98 points at the SECCG in Atlanta last December. UF’s Dan Mullen and Alabama’s OC Bill O’Brien are two of the nation’s premier play-callers. The Crimson Tide scored 44 points against Miami and had 31 at halftime last week vs. Mercer. The Gators lead the nation in rushing yards and are third in total offense. Both defenses have lost key players to season-ending injuries in the last two weeks. Alabama lost LB Christopher Allen and UF will be without last year’s leading tackler, LB Ventrell Miller.
Florida +15 vs. Alabama: This is Bryce Young’s first career road start, which is a dangerous proposition at the sold-out Swamp. This is only the third time Mullen’s team has been a double-digit underdog since he arrived in Gainesville. The Gators are 1-0-1 ATS in those two instances, losing 42-28 as 14-point underdogs to the eventual national champion, LSU, in 2019 in a game they led 28-21 midway through the third quarter. The other was last year at the SECCG in Atlanta when UF covered as a 17-point ‘dog in a 52-46 loss to ‘Bama. Anthony Richardson has practiced all week and his tweaked hamstring is reportedly not expected to be an issue.
Auburn +5.5 at Penn St.: We’re rolling the dice here in hopes that third-year QB Bo Nix is ready to put his road struggles behind him. He’s played outstanding at home but committed way too many turnovers when the Tigers leave the friendly confines of Jordan-Hare Stadium. But you know what? Most QBs that start right away as freshmen usually have a tougher time in road games. Nix now has 26 career starts to his credit and I believe he’s ready to put his road woes behind him. He has one of the nation’s best RBs to rely on in Tank Bigsby and I really like this backup freshman RB in Jarquez Hunter, who has some serious wheels on him. Auburn has a stout defense and I think Bryan Harsin’s squad has an excellent shot at pulling the upset. Give me the Tigers catching the points.
Coastal Carolina at Buffalo ‘OVER’ 57.5: The ‘over’ is 2-0 for Coastal Carolina with its two combined scores coming out at 66 and 71 points. QB Grayson McCall has completed 33-of-40 passes (82.5%) for 507 yards and three TDs without an interception. For his career, McCall has connected on 71.1 percent of his throws for 3,020 yards with a 30/3 TD-INT ratio. He also has 620 career rushing yards and eight TDs. Buffalo scored 69 points in its opener before being held to three at Nebraska. However, the Bulls weren’t blanked offensively. They just missed three field goals and saw 10 penalties for 88 yards kill multiple drives. Buffalo still managed 369 yards of total offense. Let’s go with the ‘over.’
Brian is a Senior Handicapper at VegasInsider.com, where he's worked since 2000 and spent a decade as Managing Editor. He's also the owner of BrianEdwardsSports.com and the host of the Games Galore podcast. You can check out his content at MajorWager.com and follow him on Twitter at @vegasbedwards.
Please feel free to chat with him, ask questions and leave comments.
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South Carolina improved to 2-0 both straight up and against the spread by rallying from a 14-0 deficit to win 20-17 at East Carolina on Parker White’s 36-yard field goal as time expired. The Gamecocks covered the spread as 2.5-point road favorites, while the 37 combined points dropped ‘under’ the 56.5-point total.
Things weren’t looking good late in the second quarter. USC was down 14-0 and ECU was on the cusp of field-goal range at USC’s 37-yard line with 1:13 left in the second quarter. At the very least, the Gamecocks needed a stop to keep it a two-possession game going into halftime.
ECU quarterback Holton Ahlers tried to throw a middle screen to his running back, who couldn’t handle the pass. When the ball bounced off the RB and into the air, senior linebacker Damani Staley intercepted it and returned it 63 yards for a touchdown.
With Staley’s big play, USC was back in the game and had momentum going into the third quarter. The Gamecocks pulled even when QB Zeb Noland found WR Dakereon Joyner for a 13-yard scoring strike to make it 14-14.
After ECU went in front 17-14, USC answered with 6:46 left on White’s tying 39-yard FG to knot the score at 17-17. Next, USC forced ECU’s offense into a three and out.
With 4:25 remaining, the Gamecocks took over on their own 28. JuJu McDowell gained 23 yards on two carries to get USC into ECU territory. Three plays later, a 16-yard run by McDowell put the Gamecocks on the ECU 19 with 37 ticks left. From there, USC killed the clock and centered the ball to set up White’s game winner.
Now the competition gets tougher in Week 3 with South Carolina set to visit Athens and take on second-ranked Georgia. Circa, the first book in Las Vegas to send out an opening line this past Sunday afternoon, opened UGA as a 32-point home favorite with a total of 47.
A few hours later, the line was down to 30 and the total was up to 48 points. By Monday afternoon, most betting shops had the Bulldogs installed as 31-point home ‘chalk’ with a total of 48.5. Since then, the spread has inched up to 31.5 and a few books were at -32 as of early Thursday morning. The total was 48 at most shops with a few spots at 47.5.
FanDuel has the Gamecocks at +3500 on the money line, while DraftKings has them at +2500 to win outright (paid $2,500 on $100 wagers).
When South Carolina came to Athens in 2019, it was listed as a 20.5-point road underdog. Even though starting QB Ryan Hilinski left the game with a knee injury in the second quarter, the Gamecocks were able to win 20-17 in double overtime on White’s 24-yard field goal.
Cornerback Israel Mukuamu was the hero, intercepting Jake Fromm three times, including a 53-yard pick-six with 1:00 left in the second quarter to stake USC to a 17-10 lead at intermission. Mukuamu intercepted Fromm again on UGA’s possession at the start of the second OT.
The visitor has covered the spread five times in a row in this rivalry, winning outright in four of those five contests. UGA avenged the 2019 loss by going into Williams-Brice Stadium and capturing a 45-16 win as a 22-point road ‘chalk’ last year. However, the season was already a lost cause for USC with its head coach fired and DBs Jaycee Horn and Mukuamu already opting out.
Despite limping to a 1-6 against-the-spread record in its last seven games as a double-digit underdog, USC is 13-10-1 ATS in its last 24 games as a double-digit ‘dog in the past decade. This is USC’s richest underdog situation in more than a decade. The Gamecocks have been 27-point underdogs three times recently, vs. Alabama and vs. Clemson in 2019, and again at Clemson in 2016. They went 1-2 ATS in those three games.
Georgia smashed UAB 56-7 as a 22.5-point home favorite last week despite the absence of starting QB JT Daniels. His backup, Stetson Bennett, threw five TD passes without an interception. However, Bennett and Daniels were both listed as ‘questionable’ vs. USC as of early Thursday. Daniels is dealing with an oblique issue and Bennett has been coping with back spasms.
According to The Athletic’s Seth Emerson, Bennett and Daniels both practiced Wednesday, sharing reps with QB Carson Beck. On Tuesday, Kirby Smart said, “I don’t know that [Daniels] is 100 percent, but he’s certainly getting closer to that.”
UGA still has several other key players injured. The Bulldogs will be without their two best tight ends – Arik Gilbert and Darnell Washington – and their best WR (George Pickens) vs. USC. DB Tykee Smith is listed as ‘doubtful,’ and WR Dominick Blaylock is ‘questionable.’ Blaylock still hasn’t touched the field since tearing his ACL last August.
PREDICTION: I’ve unsuccessfully gone against Georgia in back-to-back weeks. Although I’m not implying it’s one of my top picks of Week 3, I’m going to try the Bulldogs again. It’s a small opinion, but I’ll go with the Gamecocks +32. I think UGA wins a 38-13 type of game.
**Other Picks**
Alabama at Florida ‘OVER’ 59.5: These teams combined for 98 points at the SECCG in Atlanta last December. UF’s Dan Mullen and Alabama’s OC Bill O’Brien are two of the nation’s premier play-callers. The Crimson Tide scored 44 points against Miami and had 31 at halftime last week vs. Mercer. The Gators lead the nation in rushing yards and are third in total offense. Both defenses have lost key players to season-ending injuries in the last two weeks. Alabama lost LB Christopher Allen and UF will be without last year’s leading tackler, LB Ventrell Miller.
Florida +15 vs. Alabama: This is Bryce Young’s first career road start, which is a dangerous proposition at the sold-out Swamp. This is only the third time Mullen’s team has been a double-digit underdog since he arrived in Gainesville. The Gators are 1-0-1 ATS in those two instances, losing 42-28 as 14-point underdogs to the eventual national champion, LSU, in 2019 in a game they led 28-21 midway through the third quarter. The other was last year at the SECCG in Atlanta when UF covered as a 17-point ‘dog in a 52-46 loss to ‘Bama. Anthony Richardson has practiced all week and his tweaked hamstring is reportedly not expected to be an issue.
Auburn +5.5 at Penn St.: We’re rolling the dice here in hopes that third-year QB Bo Nix is ready to put his road struggles behind him. He’s played outstanding at home but committed way too many turnovers when the Tigers leave the friendly confines of Jordan-Hare Stadium. But you know what? Most QBs that start right away as freshmen usually have a tougher time in road games. Nix now has 26 career starts to his credit and I believe he’s ready to put his road woes behind him. He has one of the nation’s best RBs to rely on in Tank Bigsby and I really like this backup freshman RB in Jarquez Hunter, who has some serious wheels on him. Auburn has a stout defense and I think Bryan Harsin’s squad has an excellent shot at pulling the upset. Give me the Tigers catching the points.
Coastal Carolina at Buffalo ‘OVER’ 57.5: The ‘over’ is 2-0 for Coastal Carolina with its two combined scores coming out at 66 and 71 points. QB Grayson McCall has completed 33-of-40 passes (82.5%) for 507 yards and three TDs without an interception. For his career, McCall has connected on 71.1 percent of his throws for 3,020 yards with a 30/3 TD-INT ratio. He also has 620 career rushing yards and eight TDs. Buffalo scored 69 points in its opener before being held to three at Nebraska. However, the Bulls weren’t blanked offensively. They just missed three field goals and saw 10 penalties for 88 yards kill multiple drives. Buffalo still managed 369 yards of total offense. Let’s go with the ‘over.’
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