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Brian_Edwards
Guest
Note from Shoe: I'd like to welcome Brian Edwards back to Gamecock Central. He's written gambling columns for us - on and off - for 10 years.
Brian is a Senior Handicapper at VegasInsider.com, where he's worked since 2000 and spent a decade as Managing Editor. He's also the owner of BrianEdwardsSports.com and the host of the Games Galore podcast. You can check out his content at MajorWager.com and follow him on Twitter at @vegasbedwards.
Please feel free to chat with him, ask questions and leave comments.
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South Carolina (3-2 straight up, 3-1-1 against the spread) avoided a three-game losing streak and covered the number in last week’s 23-14 win over Troy as a 6.5-point home favorite. The 37 combined points dropped ‘under’ the 43-point total.
The ‘under’ is 4-1 overall for the Gamecocks, 1-1 in their two previous road assignments.
Shane Beamer’s team is back on the road Saturday at Tennessee. As of early Thursday, most books had the Volunteers installed as 10.5-point favorites with a total of 57. The Gamecocks were +330 on the money line (risk $100 to win $330 if USC wins outright).
USC has split a pair of road games, winning 20-17 at East Carolina and losing 40-13 at Georgia. Beamer’s bunch is 2-0 ATS in those contests, taking the money as a 2.5-point road ‘chalk’ at ECU and covering as a 31.5-point ‘dog at UGA. We’ll note that the Pirates have won three games in a row since losing on a walk-off field goal to the Gamecocks.
USC brings a defense to Neyland Stadium that’s ranked No. 20 in total ‘D,’ No. 11 at defending the pass and No. 23 in scoring ‘D’ (17.4 points per game). Unfortunately for the Gamecocks, they’re ranked No. 117 out of 130 FBS teams in total offense, No. 102 in rushing yards and No. 103 in scoring with their 22.4 PPG average.
Tennessee (3-2 SU, 2-3 ATS) is off its best performance under Josh Heupel, blasting Missouri 62-24 as a 2.5-point road underdog. The 86 combined points catapulted ‘over’ the 66.5-point total. It was UT’s best offensive performance since a 63-37 home win over Missouri in November of 2017.
The Vols are 2-1 SU and 1-2 ATS in three home games this year. They dropped a 41-34 decision to Pitt as 3.5-point home underdogs in Week 2.
Va. Tech transfer QB Hendon Hooker has emerged as the starting QB ahead of Michigan transfer Joe Milton. Hooker has connected on 68.5 percent of his passes for 838 yards with a 10/1 touchdown-to-interception ratio. He has 216 rushing yards, two TDs and a 4.7 yards-per-carry average.
RB Tiyon Evans had 156 rushing yards and three TDs on 15 carries last week at Missouri. For the season, Evans has 363 rushing yards, five TDs and a 6.4 YPC average. He also has four catches for 74 yards and one TD.
Eight of the last nine meetings between these SEC East rivals have been decided by six points or fewer, including the Vols’ 31-27 win at Williams-Brice Stadium last year. UT covered as a 3.5-point road favorite, while the 58 combined points jumped ‘over’ the 45.5 point total.
The ‘under’ had cashed in four consecutive head-to-head meetings between these schools until the last two games went ‘over,’ including UT’s 41-21 win as a four-point home underdog in 2019. The Gamecocks had won three in a row over the Vols until dropping the last two encounters.
The ‘over’ is 3-2 overall for UT this year, going 2-1 in its three home games.
PREDICTION: My number was UT -14 when I made my lines early Sunday. I think USC’s defense will keep it in the game for four quarters like it’s done in every game except for the loss at UGA. However, I think the Vols get the cover and win a 31-17 type of game.
OTHER PICKS:
Alabama -11 in the first half at Texas A&M: Alabama has covered the spread for first-half wagers in four of its first five games. The lone exception was when the Crimson Tide had a 31-0 advantage on Mercer at halftime as a 38.5-point favorite. Nick Saban’s team went 11-2 ATS in the first half of its 13 wins last year, so it’s on a 15-3 ATS roll for first-half wagers. The Tide has had leads at intermission by scores of 27-3, 31-0, 21-9, 42-7 and 28-0 in its games against Miami, Mercer, Florida, Southern Miss and Ole Miss, respectively.
Texas A&M (3-2 SU, 2-3 ATS) is fortunate to be above .500, needing a late fourth-quarter score to win a 10-7 decision over Colorado in Denver on Sept. 11. The Aggies have dropped their first two SEC games vs. Arkansas (20-10 in Arlington, TX.) and at home vs. Mississippi St. (26-22) last week. The Aggies have been pedestrian on offense, rankings No. 101 in scoring with their dismal 23.4 PPG average. They’re No. 83 in total offense and No. 86 in passing yards.
QB Hayes King remains ‘out,’ WR Caleb Chapman has missed three games in a row and is ‘questionable’ vs. Alabama and four key players have already sustained season-ending injuries.
Illinois +10 vs. Wisconsin: Since Wisconsin QB Graham Mertz threw seven TD passes without an interception during the Badgers’ 2-0 start last season, they’ve lost six of their nine games and Mertz has an atrocious 4/11 TD-INT ratio. Wisconsin is ranked No. 117 nationally in total offense, No. 102 in passing yards and No. 100 in total offense.
Illinois is 3-1 ATS in four games as an underdog this year, 2-0 ATS in a pair of home ‘dog situations. The Illini are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games as home ‘dogs. In six games this year, Bret Bielema’s squad has lost by more than seven points only once (at Virginia).
This is Wisconsin’s first true road assignment of the season, as it will face a hostile crowd for the first time since 2019. Mertz says he’s playing, but he might not be 100-percent healthy after leaving last week’s 38-17 home loss to Michigan with a chest injury.
Iowa -1.5 vs. Penn St.: Yes, I have my concerns about Iowa’s offense and QB Spencer Petras if this unbeaten squad falls behind by more than a TD at some point Saturday or later in the season. However, until that situation arises, I must tip my cap to Petras, who has taken care of the football all year with a 7/1 TD-INT ratio.
And how about this nasty defense?! Iowa’s stop unit is ranked No. 2 in the country in scoring ‘D’ (11.6 PPG), No. 7 in total defense and No. 9 against the run. The Hawkeyes lead the nation in interceptions (12) and turnover margin (+12). They’ve also recovered four fumbles on defense.
Penn St. is ranked No. 94 nationally in rushing yards, No. 52 in total offense and No. 64 in scoring with its 30.0 PPG average. The Nittany Lions are 4-6 ATS in their last 10 games as road underdogs.
Virginia Tech +1 vs. Notre Dame: The Hokies are the third straight opponent for Notre Dame that has had two weeks to prepare for the Fighting Irish, who are playing their sixth game in six weeks. Brian Kelly’s team is off a 24-13 home loss to Cincinnati. Notre Dame is struggling to run the ball, ranking No. 125 in the country in rushing yards. Whether it was due to an injury or ineffectiveness, QB Jack Coan was yanked against the Bearcats last week.
Justin Fuente’s team is 4-2 both SU and ATS in its last six games as a home underdog, including a 17-10 win over North Carolina this year. The Hokies are undefeated in three home games with a 2-1 spread record. They took their lone defeat by a 27-21 score at West Virginia when they were stopped deep in the red zone in the final minute. I expect the Hokies, who are ranked 11th in the nation in scoring defense (15.3 PPG), to win outright.
NFL:
Giants +7 at Cowboys: New York is 18-3 ATS in their last 21 games as a road underdog, including last week’s overtime win at New Orleans. This team could easily be 3-1, but Joe Judge’s club lost by four combined points at Washington and vs. Atlanta. Daniel Jones is delivering in a prove-it season, throwing four TD passes compared to only one interception. He also has 188 rushing yards, two TDs and a 7.0 YPC average. We’ll also note that WR Kenny Golladay dropped a TD pass at Washington and a long TD run by Jones was called back in the same game due to a needless holding penalty down the field when he was already in the clear.
New York at Dallas ‘OVER’ 52: The ‘over’ has cashed at a 3-1 clip for the Cowboys, who had three combined scores of 64, 62 and 60. Dallas saw its lone ‘under’ in a 20-17 win at the Chargers. Nevertheless, the Cowboys’ combined scores are averaging 55.8 PPG.
That’s all I have for now, but feel free to fire away with questions on any games in college and/or the NFL. I’ll send out some more plays as I decide on them in the thread that ‘Shoe’ posts with this article. Good luck to us (and sorry about last week’s dismal performance)!
Brian is a Senior Handicapper at VegasInsider.com, where he's worked since 2000 and spent a decade as Managing Editor. He's also the owner of BrianEdwardsSports.com and the host of the Games Galore podcast. You can check out his content at MajorWager.com and follow him on Twitter at @vegasbedwards.
Please feel free to chat with him, ask questions and leave comments.
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South Carolina (3-2 straight up, 3-1-1 against the spread) avoided a three-game losing streak and covered the number in last week’s 23-14 win over Troy as a 6.5-point home favorite. The 37 combined points dropped ‘under’ the 43-point total.
The ‘under’ is 4-1 overall for the Gamecocks, 1-1 in their two previous road assignments.
Shane Beamer’s team is back on the road Saturday at Tennessee. As of early Thursday, most books had the Volunteers installed as 10.5-point favorites with a total of 57. The Gamecocks were +330 on the money line (risk $100 to win $330 if USC wins outright).
USC has split a pair of road games, winning 20-17 at East Carolina and losing 40-13 at Georgia. Beamer’s bunch is 2-0 ATS in those contests, taking the money as a 2.5-point road ‘chalk’ at ECU and covering as a 31.5-point ‘dog at UGA. We’ll note that the Pirates have won three games in a row since losing on a walk-off field goal to the Gamecocks.
USC brings a defense to Neyland Stadium that’s ranked No. 20 in total ‘D,’ No. 11 at defending the pass and No. 23 in scoring ‘D’ (17.4 points per game). Unfortunately for the Gamecocks, they’re ranked No. 117 out of 130 FBS teams in total offense, No. 102 in rushing yards and No. 103 in scoring with their 22.4 PPG average.
Tennessee (3-2 SU, 2-3 ATS) is off its best performance under Josh Heupel, blasting Missouri 62-24 as a 2.5-point road underdog. The 86 combined points catapulted ‘over’ the 66.5-point total. It was UT’s best offensive performance since a 63-37 home win over Missouri in November of 2017.
The Vols are 2-1 SU and 1-2 ATS in three home games this year. They dropped a 41-34 decision to Pitt as 3.5-point home underdogs in Week 2.
Va. Tech transfer QB Hendon Hooker has emerged as the starting QB ahead of Michigan transfer Joe Milton. Hooker has connected on 68.5 percent of his passes for 838 yards with a 10/1 touchdown-to-interception ratio. He has 216 rushing yards, two TDs and a 4.7 yards-per-carry average.
RB Tiyon Evans had 156 rushing yards and three TDs on 15 carries last week at Missouri. For the season, Evans has 363 rushing yards, five TDs and a 6.4 YPC average. He also has four catches for 74 yards and one TD.
Eight of the last nine meetings between these SEC East rivals have been decided by six points or fewer, including the Vols’ 31-27 win at Williams-Brice Stadium last year. UT covered as a 3.5-point road favorite, while the 58 combined points jumped ‘over’ the 45.5 point total.
The ‘under’ had cashed in four consecutive head-to-head meetings between these schools until the last two games went ‘over,’ including UT’s 41-21 win as a four-point home underdog in 2019. The Gamecocks had won three in a row over the Vols until dropping the last two encounters.
The ‘over’ is 3-2 overall for UT this year, going 2-1 in its three home games.
PREDICTION: My number was UT -14 when I made my lines early Sunday. I think USC’s defense will keep it in the game for four quarters like it’s done in every game except for the loss at UGA. However, I think the Vols get the cover and win a 31-17 type of game.
OTHER PICKS:
Alabama -11 in the first half at Texas A&M: Alabama has covered the spread for first-half wagers in four of its first five games. The lone exception was when the Crimson Tide had a 31-0 advantage on Mercer at halftime as a 38.5-point favorite. Nick Saban’s team went 11-2 ATS in the first half of its 13 wins last year, so it’s on a 15-3 ATS roll for first-half wagers. The Tide has had leads at intermission by scores of 27-3, 31-0, 21-9, 42-7 and 28-0 in its games against Miami, Mercer, Florida, Southern Miss and Ole Miss, respectively.
Texas A&M (3-2 SU, 2-3 ATS) is fortunate to be above .500, needing a late fourth-quarter score to win a 10-7 decision over Colorado in Denver on Sept. 11. The Aggies have dropped their first two SEC games vs. Arkansas (20-10 in Arlington, TX.) and at home vs. Mississippi St. (26-22) last week. The Aggies have been pedestrian on offense, rankings No. 101 in scoring with their dismal 23.4 PPG average. They’re No. 83 in total offense and No. 86 in passing yards.
QB Hayes King remains ‘out,’ WR Caleb Chapman has missed three games in a row and is ‘questionable’ vs. Alabama and four key players have already sustained season-ending injuries.
Illinois +10 vs. Wisconsin: Since Wisconsin QB Graham Mertz threw seven TD passes without an interception during the Badgers’ 2-0 start last season, they’ve lost six of their nine games and Mertz has an atrocious 4/11 TD-INT ratio. Wisconsin is ranked No. 117 nationally in total offense, No. 102 in passing yards and No. 100 in total offense.
Illinois is 3-1 ATS in four games as an underdog this year, 2-0 ATS in a pair of home ‘dog situations. The Illini are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games as home ‘dogs. In six games this year, Bret Bielema’s squad has lost by more than seven points only once (at Virginia).
This is Wisconsin’s first true road assignment of the season, as it will face a hostile crowd for the first time since 2019. Mertz says he’s playing, but he might not be 100-percent healthy after leaving last week’s 38-17 home loss to Michigan with a chest injury.
Iowa -1.5 vs. Penn St.: Yes, I have my concerns about Iowa’s offense and QB Spencer Petras if this unbeaten squad falls behind by more than a TD at some point Saturday or later in the season. However, until that situation arises, I must tip my cap to Petras, who has taken care of the football all year with a 7/1 TD-INT ratio.
And how about this nasty defense?! Iowa’s stop unit is ranked No. 2 in the country in scoring ‘D’ (11.6 PPG), No. 7 in total defense and No. 9 against the run. The Hawkeyes lead the nation in interceptions (12) and turnover margin (+12). They’ve also recovered four fumbles on defense.
Penn St. is ranked No. 94 nationally in rushing yards, No. 52 in total offense and No. 64 in scoring with its 30.0 PPG average. The Nittany Lions are 4-6 ATS in their last 10 games as road underdogs.
Virginia Tech +1 vs. Notre Dame: The Hokies are the third straight opponent for Notre Dame that has had two weeks to prepare for the Fighting Irish, who are playing their sixth game in six weeks. Brian Kelly’s team is off a 24-13 home loss to Cincinnati. Notre Dame is struggling to run the ball, ranking No. 125 in the country in rushing yards. Whether it was due to an injury or ineffectiveness, QB Jack Coan was yanked against the Bearcats last week.
Justin Fuente’s team is 4-2 both SU and ATS in its last six games as a home underdog, including a 17-10 win over North Carolina this year. The Hokies are undefeated in three home games with a 2-1 spread record. They took their lone defeat by a 27-21 score at West Virginia when they were stopped deep in the red zone in the final minute. I expect the Hokies, who are ranked 11th in the nation in scoring defense (15.3 PPG), to win outright.
NFL:
Giants +7 at Cowboys: New York is 18-3 ATS in their last 21 games as a road underdog, including last week’s overtime win at New Orleans. This team could easily be 3-1, but Joe Judge’s club lost by four combined points at Washington and vs. Atlanta. Daniel Jones is delivering in a prove-it season, throwing four TD passes compared to only one interception. He also has 188 rushing yards, two TDs and a 7.0 YPC average. We’ll also note that WR Kenny Golladay dropped a TD pass at Washington and a long TD run by Jones was called back in the same game due to a needless holding penalty down the field when he was already in the clear.
New York at Dallas ‘OVER’ 52: The ‘over’ has cashed at a 3-1 clip for the Cowboys, who had three combined scores of 64, 62 and 60. Dallas saw its lone ‘under’ in a 20-17 win at the Chargers. Nevertheless, the Cowboys’ combined scores are averaging 55.8 PPG.
That’s all I have for now, but feel free to fire away with questions on any games in college and/or the NFL. I’ll send out some more plays as I decide on them in the thread that ‘Shoe’ posts with this article. Good luck to us (and sorry about last week’s dismal performance)!
