Disagree, at this time, (could be different next week, see below), but I wouldn't put Kentucky in the second tier, yet. I would put Kentucky, Missouri, Mississippi State, Ole Miss, Florida, A&M, and South Carolina in a pending second tier, or a third tier to them selves, at this time in the season. I would consider second tier a 1-2 conference loss team at 9 games into the season, 2-3 conference loss at end of season. Nobody except Alabama and Georgia is a given to accomplish this. Current guesses would be weighted against last year's record and this year so far. Auburn and LSU pass the current eye test for secone tier, but could still falter. Only Georgia and Alabama are expected first tier.
Having said that, Kentucky has South Carolina, A&M, Georgia, and Missouri as potential losses. Vandy could surprise, as well as rival Louisville, but I'll lean on those two, and remaining games as wins. So 8 wins at least, no worse than 8-4. I see Georgia as a probable loss, but others are a toss up. Manage to get to 9-3, then that's second tier in my mind. It's doable this year for Kentucky.