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Best Bets week 6. Contrarian edition. And some thoughts on the election (from a gambling perspective)

R

Reddfoxx1

Guest
What a week.
A blown call away in the Ole Miss Game from 8-2 .
We also hit 4 underdog money lines (sprinkles) outright.
Easily the most profitable weekend in the last 10 weeks going back to last year.

7-3 last week
19-16 overall
17-13 in the SEC

First the election.
Every poll in the world seems to have Biden in control, yet Vegas has him only as a -180 favorite. In football terms, that’s equal to a 3.5 to 4 point favorite. NOT A LOT.
Why is this? Because incumbents NEVER lose, that’s why. Only twice in the last 90 years has an incumbent lost re-election (Jimmy Carter in 1980 and GW Bush in 1992)
So Vegas likes history.
Best bets.
Biden to win North Carolina (even)
Trump to win Florida (-130)
and....
Jaime Harrison to beat Lyndsey Graham +300 (Harrison was +2000 in August)
Harrisons fate will be dictated by turnout. One of the more interesting outcomes in the country.
I truly think the Presidential election will be very close, which favors Trump.

Anywho, some music.
‘It’s ladies week

Sharon Von Etten (w Norah Jones) - Seventeen (this is so good)


Adia Victoria
Souths gotta Change


Courtney Barnett and Jen Cloher
Fear is like a forest


On to some football
After such a big week, a dont love the board, but we fire with some contrarian picks.
Narratives get skewed this time of year and it’s when I love to go against the grain.
Several dogs again.
Let’s howl.

Game 1
Auburn +3 over LSU
Nobody likes Auburn. I get it. But they are getting points at home vs a freshman QB. Tank will have a huge day. LSU is a shiv on defense. This line has moved 6 points in favor of LSU. Gimme the home dog. Bo Nix will have his best game.

Auburn 38
LSU 31

Game 2
Northwestern +3 over Iowa
We love the new NW QB and the defense looks legit. Problems are real at Iowa. Everybody on Iowa....we think Northwestern is legit.. catch value while you can

NW 27
Iowa 20

Game 3
Rutgers +11 over Indiana
2 teams we won on last Week. Indiana was very fortunate to win. They were outgained 488-211. Now they go on the road sky high to play Rutgers. Schiano will be ready. Close one....

‘Indiana 28
Rutgers 24

Game 4
Kentucky +17.5 over Georgia
Everybody I follow is on Georgia. I dont get it.
Kentucky has only lost By more than 17 once In the last 33 games. Georgia has Only 3 runs of more than 20 yards this season. What does UK do well, limit big plays. Georgia starts slow every week. This a noon kick.
Stoops has to be close to his limit with Wilson. I don’t think UK does much of anything on offense, but this team Has dudes on D. Georgia has its season on tap next week vs Florida and nearly 3 TD’s is nuts.
Kirby just doesn’t blow decent teams out on the road. Watch out if UK scores first

UGA 20
UK 10

game 5
Oklahoma State -3 over Texas
Texas continues to get to much respect. Really impressed with the OKS Defense. Cowboys have legit shot at BIG 12 title and are at home. They make Texas one dimensional and roll.

OKSt - 27
Texas 17

game 6
UCF -2.5 over Houston
UCF is a bet on team for me the rest of the year.
Holgerson doesn’t have the horses to keep up

UCF 52
Houston 31

Game 7
UVA +7 over UNC
Everybody on UNC. This is where Mack slips up. Vs disciplined teams on the road. Watch out heels

Tarheels 31
UVA 28

other SEC games

Arky +12.5 over Tex A&M (might add this one)
‘Mizzou +13 over Florida
Bama -30 over Miss St

good luck everyone
 
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