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Good week last week. Underdogs are barking early in the season. They are hitting at 58% so far in 5 weeks. (41-25 last week)
Week 5
8-4-1 on plays
0-2 on opinions
0-1 on the Cocks
Season
21-17-1
5-5
3-1
First, the 10 Coaches (not named Nick Saban) we aren’t running To bet against
10. Greg Schiano - Rutgers. Wow. What a turnaround
9. Neal Brown - WVU. Love the way they play
8. Dave Clawson - Wake. They know who they are. They execute as good as anyone
7. Sam Pittman - Arkansas. Understands the Line of scrimmage
6. Kaylani Sitaki - BYU. They play with incredible toughness. Often outplay more talented teams
5. Steve Sarkisian - Texas. Hate that he’s in our league now
4. Chip Kelly - UCLA. Love watching them play. Offensive execution is top notch
3. Mike Gundy - Oklahoma State - so under rated as a head coach
2. Dan Mullen - Florida. Best play caller/game planner since Spurrier
1. Brian Kelly - Notre Dame. All he does is win.
What’s a public dog? It’s when an underdog line looks HUGE.
“How is Arkansas getting 19 points” says Joe public
When everyone starts liking the underdog, we get nervous. This week we have 3 BIG high profile underdogs
The aforementioned Arkansas Razorbacks are getting 19 at Georgia. This is Arkansas’s first true road game since 2019. We love this team and think they are are for real……but…… Georgia is now getting the Bama treatment from Vegas. For good reason. The dawgs have gotten a few pieces back since the game 1 crapshow vs Clemson. This week they get its best offensive weapon TE Darnell Washington AND best corner Tykee Smith back in the lineup.. Arkansas is banged up after a very physical game vs Texas A&M. QB KJ Jefferson and star WR Treylon Burns both left the game. Even if they play, it’s a huge ask for Arkansas to get up for an early start in Athens.
It’s a pass for us. We will be looking to bet on Pittman and the HOG’s in weeks to come. But we don’t see many points here. Kirby is 10-1 to the under when playing top 20 teams. The Dawgs will see a very good defense this week. And we wonder how Arky will move the ball, with or without Jefferson
1. UGA/Arkansas under 48.5
UGA 24
Arkansas 6
2. Alabama -14 over Ole Miss.
Vegas opened this game at -20. They took several max bets on the dog, moving this number quickly to -14. Ole Miss (who I love) has become the public darling. What Kiffen has done in Oxford very impressive. People point out what happened last year when the Rebels put up 48 points on Saban
You know what I’m not hearing much about? What Saban has has done to Ole Miss the last 4 years.
66 points in 2017
62 points in 2018
59 points in 2019
63 points in 2020
Also, in Alabama’s last 40 game IN TUSCALOOSA, they are 39-1, losing to LSU in 2019. In the 39 wins, the closest game was 17 points. The public is ALL over Ole Miss this week. We will gladly take Bama at a discount at home and make Kiffen prove that he has a competitive defense. This is still Alabama. They have 15 five star kids on the 2 deep.
For maybe the first time ever under Saban, Bama is the contrarian play.
Bama 55
Ol Miss 31
3. Boston College +16 at Clemson
Another public dog. But this one makes more sense. Vegas has flat out gotten crushed by Clemson bettors from 2016-2019. As we know, the Tigers were just a machine, covering 75% of the time. Vegas has Clemson betting PTSD. Point spreads are based on power numbers, and Vegas (and handicappers) are just stubborn to come off their number. Clemsons power number is just way too inflated. Over the last 17 games, Clemson is just 4-12-1 ATS, including 0-4 in 2021.
Why? They just can’t hit any explosive plays on offense. This isn’t a new problem. Going back to last year, Clemson ranks outside the top 75 in explosive runs. That’s not good (and most of that was with Trevor)
Now, no Etienne. No Will Shipley. no Dixon. Clemson turns to 3rd string (and normal) RB Koby Pace. In the 3 real games this year, Pace has 13 carries for 24 yards. Take away the SC State game and Clemson is bottom 10 on offense. IN THE COUNTRY.
If you go look at what teams are doing vs Clemson, they are playing 10 guys within 10 yards of the LOS. Ross and Ngata are both big, physical WR’s, but they lack the speed to stretch the field.
CLEMSON IS SLOW. The defense should choke out BC’s offense, but NC State really took off last week after stud DT Brian Bresee went down. That’s a big injury for the Clemson defense. “Our best player” said a good buddy who is a huge Clemson fan.
Hafley will absolutely try and be physical with the new Clemson D-Line. That BC’s strength. Last part of the handicap is the real possibility of Clemson quitting. What are they playing for?
Even if Clemson comes to play, it’s not the huge mismatch Vegas is telling us it is. BC hangs around
Clemson 27
BC 23
4. Wisconsin -1 over Michigan
You guys know the drill. Unranked team favored over a ranked team. We don’t think Michigan can throw the ball, and we know they aren’t running on Wisconsin. Opponents (including ND and Penn State) have rushed 68 times this year for 69 yards. The badgers have outscored Michigan 84-25 the last 2 years. Will be a rock fight.
Wisky 20
Michigan 13
5. Texas -4 over TCU.
TCU has won this game 6 of 7 years, but none vs Sark. How about this stat. Since Sark turned to Sophomore Casey Thompson, the Longhorns have scored Touchdowns on 18 of 21 possessions
Texas is 9th in the country in Yards per play
TCU is 126th in the country in yards per play defense.
They're doing it running and passing.
We believe. Hook em
Texas 52
TCU 28
6. Notre Dame +2.5 over Cincinnati
Notre Dame hasn't lost at home since 2017. They jus keep winning games. Now we are a home dog?
The Cincy underlying stats have not been impressive. They were fortunate to escape Indiana 2 weeks ago.
We know Cincy has had this game circled, but so has ND. Where did Brian Kelly come from? Cincinnati. Where did new DC Marcus Freeman come from? Cincinnati. Notre Dame plays in these games every week. Cincy gets 1 or 2 a year.
ND 26
Cincy 21
7. UAB -1 over Liberty
UAB has opened the season with 4 straight games on the road. They are 3-1. The lone loss was to Georgia, where the Blazers held out several starters. This is an untalked about trend. Teams taking the big check and avoiding big injuries vs the big boys. UAB is good. They have played much better competition (winning at Tulane last week) and have been a flat out covering machine since 2018.
Also, they will be playing their FIRST game in the brand new Protective stadium in downtown Birmingham.
Liberty has come back to earth after losing several key contributors from last season. Vegas hasn’t corrected enough
Roll with the Blazers here
UAB 31
Liberty 20
8. Indiana +13.5 at Penn State
hmmmm. Not sure how much I’m buying the Penn State love. They had no business beating Wisconsin in week 1 and escaped vs what might be an Average Auburn team. Hate the term “over rated”, but me thinks Penn State might be.
Indiana has already played Iowa, Cincinnati (who they outgained), and a good Western Kentucky team. Penix looks healthier every week. Hoosiers won this game last year and we think they keep it close in Happy Valley. Penn State has a huge game vs Iowa on deck
Penn State 24
Indiana 20
9. Fresno State -9.5 over Hawaii
Late night degenerate special.
Think Fresno is very good. Had their hangover game last week after beating UCLA. The same UCLA team that trucked Hawaii in week 1. Hawaii ranks bottom 20 in every passing defense category. That’s what Fresno does. This game should be fun if you are still up.
Fresno 49
Hawaii 27
Adding….
10. La Tech +19 over NC State
11. Oregon State -1 over Washington
opinions
UCLA -3 over Arizona State (dying to bet against Herm)
WKU +11.5 over Sparty (the WKU run defense scares me a bit, but they are electric on offense)
Finally…..
Troy +7.5 at South Carolina
Man the Gamecocks had everything fall their way last weekend. And still lost. It was a tad demoralizing.
I’m not talking long term, but winning that game would have been so big for Coach Beamer. Right after Clemson losing. With all those recruits in the house.
The offense is just not good. I worry that there will be a let down as well. Troy does well what we do poorl. They control the line of scrimmage on defense. They also just lost to a bad football team, Louisiana Monroe.
I feel like we get an A+ effort from them.
We simply must find a way to WIN this game, however ugly. And it will be ugly
USC 16
Troy 13
Good luck everyone.
Week 5
8-4-1 on plays
0-2 on opinions
0-1 on the Cocks
Season
21-17-1
5-5
3-1
First, the 10 Coaches (not named Nick Saban) we aren’t running To bet against
10. Greg Schiano - Rutgers. Wow. What a turnaround
9. Neal Brown - WVU. Love the way they play
8. Dave Clawson - Wake. They know who they are. They execute as good as anyone
7. Sam Pittman - Arkansas. Understands the Line of scrimmage
6. Kaylani Sitaki - BYU. They play with incredible toughness. Often outplay more talented teams
5. Steve Sarkisian - Texas. Hate that he’s in our league now
4. Chip Kelly - UCLA. Love watching them play. Offensive execution is top notch
3. Mike Gundy - Oklahoma State - so under rated as a head coach
2. Dan Mullen - Florida. Best play caller/game planner since Spurrier
1. Brian Kelly - Notre Dame. All he does is win.
What’s a public dog? It’s when an underdog line looks HUGE.
“How is Arkansas getting 19 points” says Joe public
When everyone starts liking the underdog, we get nervous. This week we have 3 BIG high profile underdogs
The aforementioned Arkansas Razorbacks are getting 19 at Georgia. This is Arkansas’s first true road game since 2019. We love this team and think they are are for real……but…… Georgia is now getting the Bama treatment from Vegas. For good reason. The dawgs have gotten a few pieces back since the game 1 crapshow vs Clemson. This week they get its best offensive weapon TE Darnell Washington AND best corner Tykee Smith back in the lineup.. Arkansas is banged up after a very physical game vs Texas A&M. QB KJ Jefferson and star WR Treylon Burns both left the game. Even if they play, it’s a huge ask for Arkansas to get up for an early start in Athens.
It’s a pass for us. We will be looking to bet on Pittman and the HOG’s in weeks to come. But we don’t see many points here. Kirby is 10-1 to the under when playing top 20 teams. The Dawgs will see a very good defense this week. And we wonder how Arky will move the ball, with or without Jefferson
1. UGA/Arkansas under 48.5
UGA 24
Arkansas 6
2. Alabama -14 over Ole Miss.
Vegas opened this game at -20. They took several max bets on the dog, moving this number quickly to -14. Ole Miss (who I love) has become the public darling. What Kiffen has done in Oxford very impressive. People point out what happened last year when the Rebels put up 48 points on Saban
You know what I’m not hearing much about? What Saban has has done to Ole Miss the last 4 years.
66 points in 2017
62 points in 2018
59 points in 2019
63 points in 2020
Also, in Alabama’s last 40 game IN TUSCALOOSA, they are 39-1, losing to LSU in 2019. In the 39 wins, the closest game was 17 points. The public is ALL over Ole Miss this week. We will gladly take Bama at a discount at home and make Kiffen prove that he has a competitive defense. This is still Alabama. They have 15 five star kids on the 2 deep.
For maybe the first time ever under Saban, Bama is the contrarian play.
Bama 55
Ol Miss 31
3. Boston College +16 at Clemson
Another public dog. But this one makes more sense. Vegas has flat out gotten crushed by Clemson bettors from 2016-2019. As we know, the Tigers were just a machine, covering 75% of the time. Vegas has Clemson betting PTSD. Point spreads are based on power numbers, and Vegas (and handicappers) are just stubborn to come off their number. Clemsons power number is just way too inflated. Over the last 17 games, Clemson is just 4-12-1 ATS, including 0-4 in 2021.
Why? They just can’t hit any explosive plays on offense. This isn’t a new problem. Going back to last year, Clemson ranks outside the top 75 in explosive runs. That’s not good (and most of that was with Trevor)
Now, no Etienne. No Will Shipley. no Dixon. Clemson turns to 3rd string (and normal) RB Koby Pace. In the 3 real games this year, Pace has 13 carries for 24 yards. Take away the SC State game and Clemson is bottom 10 on offense. IN THE COUNTRY.
If you go look at what teams are doing vs Clemson, they are playing 10 guys within 10 yards of the LOS. Ross and Ngata are both big, physical WR’s, but they lack the speed to stretch the field.
CLEMSON IS SLOW. The defense should choke out BC’s offense, but NC State really took off last week after stud DT Brian Bresee went down. That’s a big injury for the Clemson defense. “Our best player” said a good buddy who is a huge Clemson fan.
Hafley will absolutely try and be physical with the new Clemson D-Line. That BC’s strength. Last part of the handicap is the real possibility of Clemson quitting. What are they playing for?
Even if Clemson comes to play, it’s not the huge mismatch Vegas is telling us it is. BC hangs around
Clemson 27
BC 23
4. Wisconsin -1 over Michigan
You guys know the drill. Unranked team favored over a ranked team. We don’t think Michigan can throw the ball, and we know they aren’t running on Wisconsin. Opponents (including ND and Penn State) have rushed 68 times this year for 69 yards. The badgers have outscored Michigan 84-25 the last 2 years. Will be a rock fight.
Wisky 20
Michigan 13
5. Texas -4 over TCU.
TCU has won this game 6 of 7 years, but none vs Sark. How about this stat. Since Sark turned to Sophomore Casey Thompson, the Longhorns have scored Touchdowns on 18 of 21 possessions
Texas is 9th in the country in Yards per play
TCU is 126th in the country in yards per play defense.
They're doing it running and passing.
We believe. Hook em
Texas 52
TCU 28
6. Notre Dame +2.5 over Cincinnati
Notre Dame hasn't lost at home since 2017. They jus keep winning games. Now we are a home dog?
The Cincy underlying stats have not been impressive. They were fortunate to escape Indiana 2 weeks ago.
We know Cincy has had this game circled, but so has ND. Where did Brian Kelly come from? Cincinnati. Where did new DC Marcus Freeman come from? Cincinnati. Notre Dame plays in these games every week. Cincy gets 1 or 2 a year.
ND 26
Cincy 21
7. UAB -1 over Liberty
UAB has opened the season with 4 straight games on the road. They are 3-1. The lone loss was to Georgia, where the Blazers held out several starters. This is an untalked about trend. Teams taking the big check and avoiding big injuries vs the big boys. UAB is good. They have played much better competition (winning at Tulane last week) and have been a flat out covering machine since 2018.
Also, they will be playing their FIRST game in the brand new Protective stadium in downtown Birmingham.
Liberty has come back to earth after losing several key contributors from last season. Vegas hasn’t corrected enough
Roll with the Blazers here
UAB 31
Liberty 20
8. Indiana +13.5 at Penn State
hmmmm. Not sure how much I’m buying the Penn State love. They had no business beating Wisconsin in week 1 and escaped vs what might be an Average Auburn team. Hate the term “over rated”, but me thinks Penn State might be.
Indiana has already played Iowa, Cincinnati (who they outgained), and a good Western Kentucky team. Penix looks healthier every week. Hoosiers won this game last year and we think they keep it close in Happy Valley. Penn State has a huge game vs Iowa on deck
Penn State 24
Indiana 20
9. Fresno State -9.5 over Hawaii
Late night degenerate special.
Think Fresno is very good. Had their hangover game last week after beating UCLA. The same UCLA team that trucked Hawaii in week 1. Hawaii ranks bottom 20 in every passing defense category. That’s what Fresno does. This game should be fun if you are still up.
Fresno 49
Hawaii 27
Adding….
10. La Tech +19 over NC State
11. Oregon State -1 over Washington
opinions
UCLA -3 over Arizona State (dying to bet against Herm)
WKU +11.5 over Sparty (the WKU run defense scares me a bit, but they are electric on offense)
Finally…..
Troy +7.5 at South Carolina
Man the Gamecocks had everything fall their way last weekend. And still lost. It was a tad demoralizing.
I’m not talking long term, but winning that game would have been so big for Coach Beamer. Right after Clemson losing. With all those recruits in the house.
The offense is just not good. I worry that there will be a let down as well. Troy does well what we do poorl. They control the line of scrimmage on defense. They also just lost to a bad football team, Louisiana Monroe.
I feel like we get an A+ effort from them.
We simply must find a way to WIN this game, however ugly. And it will be ugly
USC 16
Troy 13
Good luck everyone.
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