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Explaining the NET, looking at metrics with six to play

C

Collyn Taylor

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Upcoming schedule: Wednesday at No. 53 NET Mississippi State, Saturday vs. No. 27 NET LSU.

How the NET works: So the NET puts different values on each team and assigns them to a Quad (1-4) with teams notching different levels of wins based on opponents and game site (home, away or neutral).

Quadrant 1: Home 1-30, Neutral 1-50, Away 1-75
Quadrant 2: Home 31-75, Neutral 51-100, Away 76-135
Quadrant 3: Home 76-160, Neutral 101-200, Away 135-240
Quadrant 4: Home 161-353, Neutral 201-353, Away 241-353

It also takes into account margin of victory and awards teams an Adjusted Win Percentage (AWP) with different values getting assigned to home wins/losses compared to neutral site wins/losses and road wins/losses. Efficiency numbers (points scored and points allowed per 100 possessions) also weigh heavily into this ranking.

Full disclosure: I'm not a fan of the NET and think some of its metrics are contradictory but it's what the NCAA is using, so we have to analyze it and let's get to it.

How the Gamecocks moved and where they stack up: The Gamecocks had a pretty solid jump looking at the week as a whole, jumping up 13 spots from No. 77 entering the Georgia game to No. 64 where they are right now. They only jumped two spots after beating the Vols Saturday, and there’s a reason why.

The efficiency numbers (91 points scored per 100 versus 88.1 points allowed per 100) aren’t great and affected how little the Gamecocks actually jumped after beating Tennessee Saturday. Even though Tennessee isn’t as good as what it was the last two years, this is what happens when the metric is largely based on a team’s efficiency numbers.

Despite the minimal jump, the Gamecocks are still moving in the right direction, up 35 spots over their last seven games with ample opportunity to move up even more. Getting cracks at two potential Quad I wins against State and LSU.

The good news for South Carolina is it only has one Quad IV loss now with Boston inching up to No. 152 and considered a Quad III loss now. That’s good for the Gamecocks with it now being a little bit less of a blemish (but still considered a bad loss).

The Gamecocks are currently ninth in the SEC in terms of NET rankings, ahead of Texas A&M, Vanderbilt, Missouri, Ole Miss and Georgia. A lot of people will ask why the Gamecocks are significantly below teams like Alabama, and it’s in large part because of the two home losses to Boston and Stetson and another home loss to Houston (albeit that’s a Quad I loss, it’s still a knock on the AWP).

Right now, here's how the Quad records shake out:

Quad I: 3-5
Quad II: 4-2
Quad III: 4-1
Quad IV: 5-1

A look at some metrics: Efficiency is obviously the biggest indicator of how a team moves up or down in the ratings and right now the Gamecocks are middle of the pack offensively (No. 146 nationally and No. 8 in the SEC since league play started) and really good defensively (No. 46 nationally and best in the SEC).

Their adjusted win percentage is incrementally increasing, up to 1.62 with the chance to continue to rise if the Gamecocks beat Mississippi State, which would be the team’s seventh road win this season, which is one of the reasons the Gamecocks are as high as they are in the NET.

As for some other metrics, the Gamecocks are top half of the league in every important defensive category and near the middle of the road in most offensive ones.

Layman’s terms: The Gamecocks have a huge opportunity ahead of themselves and are continuing to trend in the right direction as they get ready to hit the road. Their efficiency numbers are both good with one being really good with room to improve. They’re not in the tournament yet but firmly on the bubble with more chances to pick up Quad I or II wins down the stretch.
 
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