...that Americans are going to have to face facts and go back to our everyday lives with the knowledge that 5% of the population (mostly elderly) might likely die. I do not believe that the American people are going to let the national economy go into the toilet for 5% of the population.
If the COVID-19 virus is still around by June 1, I believe...
- Thread starter alphazeta
- Start date
elderly lives matter
You'd think that, but when someone you love could be in that 3-5%, people will do stupid irrational things, especially with the government waiting to swoop in and save the economy from a problem it helped create. Did you know Coronavirus currently has a confirmed (approximately) 16,000 cases in the US? That's .000048% or roughly 1 in ever 20,000+ people (Source). It has killed (or rather helped kill) 200 people. That is 1.25%. That is of confirmed reported cases. It is estimated that 80% of cases are unreported due to mild or no symptoms (Source). 16,000 is 20% of 80,000 (which would be the total estimate of cases in the US, but cannot be confirmed), but if that number is remotely accurate the mortality rate is actually closer to 0.25% which is still higher than say the flu.
But the flu has infected between 38,000,000 and 54,000,000 people since October, which, at the lowest estimated rate of the flu, is approximately 2,300 times more people than Coronavirus has infected in the US and the flu has killed between 23,000 and 59,000 since October (Source). The reason for panic is because the media isn't reporting every case of the flu that pops up and isn't telling you about every person dying from flu. The precautions to avoid the flu are the EXACT SAME as the precautions to avoid COVID-19. The difference is that they can't sell you on fear if you actually look at the numbers. This is why some people are largely unconcerned about the Coronavirus, and why it is compared to the flu. This thing is not the threat they are selling it as.
Since you are a doctor (I’m assuming this is the case since you are providing all of these facts), then I’d like to know when you expect this virus to peak given current actions taken with the public. In fact, I’d like to know what these numbers would’ve looked like compared to the flu had nothing been done for the public to prepare itself. I’m not sure how you can compare the two given that both are being dealt with in entirely different ways...
I'm sorry, I didn't realize you had to be a doctor to access the CDC website. I didn't even realize I had credentials. I'm not providing facts, I'm relaying the facts that are publicly available. I merely condensed them down (and even provided sources for the unwashed masses too lazy to do their own research on the matter). Sorry that that offends you.
The methods to prevent both are exactly the same. Don't breathe in other peoples faces, don't touch your face, wash your hands, and contain your coughs/sneezes. During roughly the same period, the flu has killed more people in the US than the Coronavirus has infected. These numbers aren't taken from different time periods but are for the SAME time period. I'm not comparing the flu in 2017 to the Coronavirus, but the flu in 2020 to the Coronavirus in 2020. Don't let your fear response override logic. That's no way to live your life. Unless you have some facts to disprove me...? I'd love to have that discussion. But I won't engage in "yer no doctor, so nu-uh!"
And we can thank the Chinese Government for their flu virus....
Once we get passed this in April, it time to move our manufacture back to America and make our our medicine and other emergency...
Make sure to go outside and take in the sunshine and lots of vitamin D...
[QUOTE="paladin181, post: 5043681, member: 28992]
But the flu has infected between 38,000,000 and 54,000,000 people since October, which, at the lowest estimated rate of the flu, is approximately 2,300 times more people than Coronavirus has infected in the US and the flu has killed between 23,000 and 59,000 since October (Source). The reason for panic is because the media isn't reporting every case of the flu that pops up and isn't telling you about every person dying from flu. The precautions to avoid the flu are the EXACT SAME as the precautions to avoid COVID-19. The difference is that they can't sell you on fear if you actually look at the numbers. This is why some people are largely unconcerned about the Coronavirus, and why it is compared to the flu. This thing is not the threat they are selling it as.[/QUOTE]
this virus is not replacing the flu. This virus is in addition to the flu.
that is what has healthcare facilities so worried.
yes, there is some panic. Sure. Some people at the first sniffle will be going to the ER. That will happen and will interfere with providers trying to treat sick people.
but this virus has proven it kills people, can make 30-50 somethings very sick to where they need one of our precious few ventilators and younger people seem to be great carriers of it. That is a recipe for disaster any way you cut it.
our healthcare system is strained most years under the flu virus. If you add thousands of sick people with a newer virus on top of that,it,pushes it over the edge.
the main problem is not panic with this virus. The main problem is how many Americans (us included) have been unaware of the strain our system is under in a “normal year” and the realization recently of how many rural hospitals and other health providers that have disappeared from the scene.
But the flu has infected between 38,000,000 and 54,000,000 people since October, which, at the lowest estimated rate of the flu, is approximately 2,300 times more people than Coronavirus has infected in the US and the flu has killed between 23,000 and 59,000 since October (Source). The reason for panic is because the media isn't reporting every case of the flu that pops up and isn't telling you about every person dying from flu. The precautions to avoid the flu are the EXACT SAME as the precautions to avoid COVID-19. The difference is that they can't sell you on fear if you actually look at the numbers. This is why some people are largely unconcerned about the Coronavirus, and why it is compared to the flu. This thing is not the threat they are selling it as.[/QUOTE]
this virus is not replacing the flu. This virus is in addition to the flu.
that is what has healthcare facilities so worried.
yes, there is some panic. Sure. Some people at the first sniffle will be going to the ER. That will happen and will interfere with providers trying to treat sick people.
but this virus has proven it kills people, can make 30-50 somethings very sick to where they need one of our precious few ventilators and younger people seem to be great carriers of it. That is a recipe for disaster any way you cut it.
our healthcare system is strained most years under the flu virus. If you add thousands of sick people with a newer virus on top of that,it,pushes it over the edge.
the main problem is not panic with this virus. The main problem is how many Americans (us included) have been unaware of the strain our system is under in a “normal year” and the realization recently of how many rural hospitals and other health providers that have disappeared from the scene.
Plus people sitting in a house all day doing nothing is going to increase obesity related issues. Yes, The Coronavirus is something to be careful with but shutting people down for months leads to even more health concerns
It has thusly been mandated; you may not think on your own or have any opinion different from the masses. You must be assimilated into the panic, fear and hysteria. Do not fight it any longer. Resistance is futile.
5% of the population??? The US population is 327,000,000. The virus is not going to kill between 10 and 16 million people. Turn off the news and stop listening to journalists.
A bit of good news. The first 15 days covid-19 averaged a 33% day over day increase for new cases in the US. The following 3 days averaged a 66% (78, 63, 59%) increase day over day. Yesterday the new daily cases was up 23%. Combine this with the increased availability of tests over the the last week this is extremely good news and is a good indication quarantines are working.
I built a model based on all other countries reporting to project the bell curve for peak new cases and deaths. If anyone is interested message me.
I built a model based on all other countries reporting to project the bell curve for peak new cases and deaths. If anyone is interested message me.
Mortality rate for covid19 is still 1.3%!! The mortality rate for the seasonal flu is still 5.4%!! Wake up America! Free your mind!
GandBinNC
GarnetTrust.com Member/Supporter
Really compelling post by OP. My only retort is that with the standard flu there is likely already a degree of resistance for most people. Granted there are different strains from year to year, but for most healthy people, getting the flu is not a major concern.
Also, there is a flu vaccine. As we know, there is no coronavirus vaccine as of yet. So, the chances of getting it are higher, the chances of spreading it is imminently higher, and the chances of immune-compromised people suffering and dying from it are very real. And no, before someone posts it, I am not a doctor. Just paying attention.
Is the daily media hyperventilation over the top? Maybe. But without that, our administration would have been even later to react than they were. That failure of leadership ("it's the new hoax") is a major part of the problem. We have seen the markets react to that toxic combination of gross incompetence and delicate ego. Every time the guy opens his mouth, the markets plunge.
Like the president or not, we can probably all agree that he needs to step away, let the VP handle daily press briefings, and allow the experts to do their jobs.
Also, there is a flu vaccine. As we know, there is no coronavirus vaccine as of yet. So, the chances of getting it are higher, the chances of spreading it is imminently higher, and the chances of immune-compromised people suffering and dying from it are very real. And no, before someone posts it, I am not a doctor. Just paying attention.
Is the daily media hyperventilation over the top? Maybe. But without that, our administration would have been even later to react than they were. That failure of leadership ("it's the new hoax") is a major part of the problem. We have seen the markets react to that toxic combination of gross incompetence and delicate ego. Every time the guy opens his mouth, the markets plunge.
Like the president or not, we can probably all agree that he needs to step away, let the VP handle daily press briefings, and allow the experts to do their jobs.
At least 14,000 people have died and 250,000 have already been hospitalized during the 2019-2020 flu season, according to estimates from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. More than 26 million Americans have fallen ill with flu-like symptoms.
"There is a deadly respiratory virus that is circulating throughout the United States, and it is at its peak. It is not novel coronavirus," said Dr. Pritish Tosh, an infectious disease specialist with the Mayo Clinic, in Rochester, Minn.
This flu season has come in two waves and has been particularly hard on children, the experts said.
"There is a deadly respiratory virus that is circulating throughout the United States, and it is at its peak. It is not novel coronavirus," said Dr. Pritish Tosh, an infectious disease specialist with the Mayo Clinic, in Rochester, Minn.
This flu season has come in two waves and has been particularly hard on children, the experts said.
If you own a house then there is no reason to sit around all day doing nothing.
There is always something to do. ALWAYS
Covid-19 is nothing close to the flu.
US Fatality Rate
- US Covid 1.4%. - 276/19777 = .014
- US Flu 0.06% - 22,000/36,000,000 = .0006
The US has not reached peak new day cases yet, the peak new daily deaths will peak about 7 days later unless the new treatments reduce it.
The global fatality rate for Covid-19 is 4.1% and only a few countries have reached peak new daily cases.
US Fatality Rate
- US Covid 1.4%. - 276/19777 = .014
- US Flu 0.06% - 22,000/36,000,000 = .0006
The US has not reached peak new day cases yet, the peak new daily deaths will peak about 7 days later unless the new treatments reduce it.
The global fatality rate for Covid-19 is 4.1% and only a few countries have reached peak new daily cases.
No one has been able to predict as to what time frame this criss may pass. Until there is a vaccine readily available it will be with us until then.
There may be peaks and valleys, but we are dealing with a huge unknown.
Your seasonal flu “fact” is wrong and dangerous. People like you spreading false information is causing the country more harm than the virus itself right now. Perhaps YOU need to wake up.
Can’t really make this comparison because there is insufficient testing to confirm cases of COVID-19. More than likely, the number of folks who carry the virus is much, much higher, whether they are symptomatic or not.
The death rate will continue to fall as more tests become available. The US is not China, Iran, or Italy. The overall health of our population is much greater and our healthcare system is light years ahead. The way that South Korea has handled the virus is a much closer comparison.
I agree the likely true cases of Covid-19 is higher than the confirmed cases. I included the facts that we currently know to point out there is a significant difference in the fatality rates between Covid-19 and the flu. Using only confirmed cases of US Covid-19 it is 23 times more deadly than the flu. Again this multiple will come down as testing increases but it is definitely not in the same range as the flu.
The death rate will come down significantly. Until very recently, only the most severe cases were tested.
That many infections will cause more deaths by overwhelming an under prepared healthcare system. It's not just a matter of what percentage will get sick or what number will die. It is how quickly it happens. How many people will be sick at the same time.
Haha! You think 5.4% of people die from the flu? That's a little more than 1 in 20 people. Think about what you're saying
My issue is that you have presented facts from an issue that is really only starting to present itself now. We are nowhere near the end of this thing. Do you know anyone in healthcare? If so, ask what they are experiencing issues hospitals right now...
Cocky_Corleone
Active Member
The strain in Italy and Spain is different than the one that originated from the Wuhan outbreak in China. The University of Valencia in Spain published a study a few days ago showing the mutation.
The problem is that this virus is rapidly mutating which means it can become much more lethal, contagious, etc. in a very short period of time.
Here's a link to the recently published study describing many mutations:
https://reader.elsevier.com/reader/...79EB8218AEFC20898E1B13920BAF79E9B7AB72E0E6182
Here's a link to the abstract on the NIH Pubmed database if you'd rather not go through all the jargon:
https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/32092483/?from_term=covid+19+mutation&from_pos=2
The problem is that this virus is rapidly mutating which means it can become much more lethal, contagious, etc. in a very short period of time.
Here's a link to the recently published study describing many mutations:
https://reader.elsevier.com/reader/...79EB8218AEFC20898E1B13920BAF79E9B7AB72E0E6182
Here's a link to the abstract on the NIH Pubmed database if you'd rather not go through all the jargon:
https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/32092483/?from_term=covid+19+mutation&from_pos=2
Greenwood had no tests. Greenwood gets tests and just like that confirmed cases. This thing is much larger than the CDC numbers. There's literally minimal testing being done even in large cities like Chicago.
Math much? The mortality rate from the seasonal flu is .1%. So 170 countries have been *duped* by the flu, especially China where they deal with everything imaginable?
Well, the Swine Flu (H1N1) affected over 60,000,000 Americans, and hospitalized over 300,000. It killed more people in the US than Coronavirus has even infected worldwide. And we never once thought of shutting everything down or canceling events. We never shuttered people in their homes. This feels like manufactured panic for something. Be it governmental power play or whatever, something doesn't feel right about all this. I know quite a few people in healthcare. I was working on equipment in a hospital yesterday. Most everyone I spoke to yesterday said that the precautions are overkill and they haven't seen any reason for much of it. That's actually what prompted my research and post at 3am. The only significant increase they've seen is from people panicking over a case of sniffles now from all the bullshit media reports.
Cocky_Corleone
Active Member
To me, it suggests government is publicly lying about severity to avert mass panic but acting based on what they know.
Statisticians have been accessing Phone Carrier Records in China for potential mortality estimates thus far
We're in a rough spot but based on the Chinese, Italy and South Korean models - social distancing makes sense and it's the only thing that's helped flatten the curve.
Hopefully the anti-Malaria med or some other viral cocktail will hit the mainstream soon so we can (somewhat) resume activities and kick the can down the road to the vaccine. (about a yr away.)
“You won’t ever know if what you did personally helped. That’s the nature of public health. When the best way to save lives is to prevent a disease rather than treat it, success often looks like an overreaction.”
~ Epidemiologist Mari Armstrong-Hough:
“The thing is if shutdowns and social distancing work perfectly and are extremely effective it will seem in retrospect like they were totally unnecessary overreactions.”
~ Dr. James Hamblin:
We're in a rough spot but based on the Chinese, Italy and South Korean models - social distancing makes sense and it's the only thing that's helped flatten the curve.
Hopefully the anti-Malaria med or some other viral cocktail will hit the mainstream soon so we can (somewhat) resume activities and kick the can down the road to the vaccine. (about a yr away.)
“You won’t ever know if what you did personally helped. That’s the nature of public health. When the best way to save lives is to prevent a disease rather than treat it, success often looks like an overreaction.”
~ Epidemiologist Mari Armstrong-Hough:
“The thing is if shutdowns and social distancing work perfectly and are extremely effective it will seem in retrospect like they were totally unnecessary overreactions.”
~ Dr. James Hamblin:
Last edited:
It’s a different story where I am in GA. My wife works for a major health system, and it’s a real struggle right now. They are running out of space for patients. And of course, they have no PPE to protect themselves.
Sorry to hear that, truly. Again, part of the problem is the panic incited by sensational media coverage. People buy and hoard everything because the media pumped up that fear. So, the lack of PPE and increased load is as much to do with people being hypochondriacs and panicking as it does with real medical issues. It just feels wrong, like there are nefarious plots at play.
Actually, no. People without the virus and with non-serious needs are being directed elsewhere due to the number of viral patients coming in. The ED and ICU are very busy, and viral patients are now being sent to other floors in some cases.
