W
Will Helms
Guest
After an upset victory over Auburn a week ago, South Carolina travels to Baton Rouge for a primetime matchup with the LSU Tigers. As a reminder, I try to put enough detail for people who didn’t watch parts of the game to follow along but this is supposed to be more of an analysis than a recap.
— My initial thought is that I hate the idea to defer after winning the toss against this team. Time will tell if it pays off, but South Carolina’s end of half clock management hasn’t been great and LSU’s defense is bad. Take the ball and go score out of the gate.
— It looks like LSU is going to run the ball a ton and throw a ton of slants and quick-hitters. With a young quarterback, I’d do that too. South Carolina has to adjust immediately — play press man on the outside and stack the box, make Finley beat you.
— Fourth-and-1 against a 6-foot-6, 250-pound quarterback is going to be impossible to stop every time. The Gamecocks got good push up front, but there’s just no stopping Finley on a sneak.
— South Carolina played “zero” coverage (no middle of the field safeties) and LSU still ran it, I think that says a lot about Ed Ogeron’s confidence in Finley, at least early. Jammie Robinson follows up with a great open field tackle (Statistically, he’s one of the best secondary tacklers in the country) and nearly gives South Carolina a chance to take the ball on two fumbled snaps. South Carolina nearly jumped the snap on both attempts and at the goal line, the risk-reward trade off there is great. If the officials don’t call it (both were close), South Carolina gets the ball.
— 16 plays and 74 yards later, yes it looks like South Carolina should have taken the ball first.
— I love the idea of having Dakereon Joyner return kicks. At the moment, he’s an electric playmaker that hasn’t made a huge impact on offense. He’s the perfect option as a kick returner.
— I mentioned in my Analytics preview that this is a great matchup for Shi Smith. A little jet flip to Smith on the first play has LSU all sorts of confused. That play sets up really well for play action later in the game (Get the linebackers flowing side-to-side pre-snap and throw a slant or deep in off of a fake to Smith).
— Kevin Harris goes for six right off of that, with a counter out of the shotgun. Harris was sprung by a huge block from Jazston Turnetine on the edge and there was nobody in the gap. That was an easy touchdown for Harris.
— South Carolina needs to do better defensively on first downs. LSU has not been explosive in the first quarter, but is picking up five yards almost every play. As I type that, South gives up back-to-back big plays, the first of which looked like an accidental pick play.
— I expected Jaycee Horn to shadow Terrance Marshall. LSU has moved Marshall to the slot, but Horn is one of the few top corners in the country that doesn’t mind playing inside or outside. I don’t like Marshall against Jammie Robinson, who is a strong corner but doesn’t excel in man coverage as much as a guy like Horn. As I type that, Robinson holds Marshall on third-and-long.
— From an unbiased perspective, this matchup between the LSU receivers and South Carolina defensive backs is so fun to watch. I’m talking about “Deebo Samuel on a kickoff return” fun to watch. Each group will have its fair share of wins. Jaycee Horn one-on-one with 5-star athletic freak of nature Arik Gilbert on a fade route was fun. Advantage: Horn.
— Major failure from the South Carolina offensive line on the second drive. Two whiffs on well designed plays lead to a 3-and-out that went 14 yards backwards. Jovaughn Gwiyn missed on a well-designed misdirection to Harris, then Turnetine whiffed on freshman BJ Ojulari for a massive sack on a third-down screen attempt that looked promising but for the pressure.
— This has been an ugly game from a penalty perspective. South Carolina has had several penalties as a result of being aggressive (Those are killer, but you can live with them) while LSU has had four or five procedure and formation penalties. If the Tigers clean those up, they could pull away.
— If South Carolina doesn’t start blitzing — frequently — LSU’s offense will impose its will. The Tiger offensive line is too good to rush four against. I’ve mentioned several times before that most quarterbacks, regardless of experience level, are good from a clean pocket.
— Horn moves inside on Marshall, LSU recognizes man coverage, runs a pick play and South Carolina doesn’t switch. It leads to an easy touchdown for LSU on third and seven.
— South Carolina responds with play action, max-protection and Hill finds Keveon Mullins wide open. He throws a great deep ball, they just haven’t done it a lot. Hill follows that up by running into a sack and then double-clutching when he had a wide open receiver for a touchdown. He’s done that a lot this year, but that cost South Carolina points. There are open receivers everywhere and South Carolina can’t do anything about it.
— This looks like it’s going to come down to in-game coaching adjustments, so advantage LSU.
— Potential game-changing interception from Israel Mukuamu. Looked like South Carolina went zone there for one of the first times all game. Mukuamu’s interceptions usually come in zone coverage and it worked there.
— LSU has a pass rush win rate of about 60 percent right now, which means South Carolina will only be able to score off of explosive plays. Any hopes of driving methodically down the field are dashed if Collin Hill is going to face pressure every other pass play (and run into pressure on half of the plays without pressure).
— I’ll say it again, South Carolina has to bring pressure. I don’t think Finley has been pressured yet (Through 16 attempts). Ernest Jones has 10 tackles but goes down injured. LSU runs it up the gut for a first down, then runs no huddle to run the same play again before South Carolina can substitute Jones back into the game. That’s elite coaching.
— The touchdown to Terrance Marshall was bad, bad defense. A simple clearout route short of the sticks turns into a 52-yard touchdown when South Carolina can’t make the tackle. This could get ugly, as South Carolina is simply getting outcoached.
— Collin Hill has been incredibly slow in his progressions so far. He’s had guys open but is running himself into pressure by waiting until they’re free rather than throwing it as the receivers come open. As I type that, Hill throws one of the worst pick sixes I’ve seen all season.
— Shi Smith hasn’t been targeted since the opening play of the game. First, it says a lot about Derek Stingley, but South Carolina has to scheme Shi open.
— South Carolina’s quarterback is struggling and the running backs are averaging 13.1 yards a carry. South Carolina attempted passes on 67 percent of plays. Knocking on the door at the end of the half, the Gamecocks called two passes, Hill scrambled from a clean pocket on both, then threw again on third and five and kicked a field goal. They missed — deservingly. Everything about that sequence was terrible.
— I was going to leave it at that, but as I sit here at halftime, I can’t help but thinking how silly that entire sequence was. Keep in mind, South Carolina deferred in the first half, promptly giving up a 16-play touchdown drive. The Gamecocks then kicked a field goal down 21 before the half when they get the ball to start the second half. Worst case scenario, they come up short and stay down three scores. Best case scenario with a field goal, they go down… three scores. It just doesn’t make sense.
— I’m not usually one to advocate running more and passing less, especially when losing, but South Carolina absolutely needs to come out of halftime running. Keep in mind college football box scores include sack yardage in rushing stats. The running backs averaged 13.1 yards per rush but attempted just seven called runs. The other six runs were three sacks, two scrambles and a reverse.
— We’re into the third quarter now, Kevin Harris is balling and should touch the ball every play until he’s tired. Then Deshaun Fenwick should touch the ball every play until Harris is no longer tired.
— After I typed that, South Carolina went Luke Doty(!), Fenwick, Fenwick, Harris, Harris for a touchdown. 31-17 but it could possibly be 31-24 with some better decision-making at the end of the first half.
— Aaaaaanndddddddd a kickoff return touchdown. It looked like the bobble got Ernest Jones and Jordan Burch out of their lanes.
— If you had Keveon Mullins catching two passes over 40 yards in the game, please give me the winning lottery numbers. The second came on the greatest play in football, a tight end wheel route.
— After LSU finally gets some stops against the run, Hill takes a sack when it looked like he had Shi Smith in one-on-one coverage in the end zone. Parker White then misses his third field goal of the game, which is just indicative of how this game has gone. Over 15 percent of his career misses have come directly following a sack — I don’t have any analysis there, I just find it interesting.
— On the field goals, if the Gamecocks had hit all three, they’d still be down two scores. If they’d scored a touchdown on one of those drives, they’d be down two scores. The fact is, in the current college football climate, field goals are fairly meaningless.
— If for no other reason than to protect him, I think Collin Hill needs to be taken out of this game. He’s been indecisive (though fairly accurate) this game, but I think you have to see what this offense could be with Ryan Hilinski at the helm. Coming into this game, Hill was near the bottom of the league in yards per attempt. Against an LSU defense that made Connor Bazelak and KJ Costello look like Heisman contenders, Hill has taken several unnecessary sacks, scrambled from a clean pocket three times and had a bad pick six. It has hurt the offense immensely.
— Arik Gilbert on anyone not named Jaycee Horn is a mismatch. Unfortunately for South Carolina, Terrance Marshall on anyone not named Jaycee Horn is also a mismatch. To my knowledge, Jaycee Horn can't be in two places at once. To clarify, that’s not a slight against South Carolina’s defensive backs, as anyone who has read my writing knows I’m very high on that group. It’s just a fact that LSU has a ton of weapons.
— I’ve never understood the thought process behind riding with a struggling quarterback in a blowout and tonight was no exception. It was a missed opportunity to see Ryan Hilinski or even Luke Doty in this offense.
— Overall, this was a disaster. Even after everything, a kickoff return touchdown, pick six and several missed opportunities on offense made it worse than it was, but we’ve seen that before. It’s back to the drawing board and honestly, I don’t know what’s next.
— My initial thought is that I hate the idea to defer after winning the toss against this team. Time will tell if it pays off, but South Carolina’s end of half clock management hasn’t been great and LSU’s defense is bad. Take the ball and go score out of the gate.
— It looks like LSU is going to run the ball a ton and throw a ton of slants and quick-hitters. With a young quarterback, I’d do that too. South Carolina has to adjust immediately — play press man on the outside and stack the box, make Finley beat you.
— Fourth-and-1 against a 6-foot-6, 250-pound quarterback is going to be impossible to stop every time. The Gamecocks got good push up front, but there’s just no stopping Finley on a sneak.
— South Carolina played “zero” coverage (no middle of the field safeties) and LSU still ran it, I think that says a lot about Ed Ogeron’s confidence in Finley, at least early. Jammie Robinson follows up with a great open field tackle (Statistically, he’s one of the best secondary tacklers in the country) and nearly gives South Carolina a chance to take the ball on two fumbled snaps. South Carolina nearly jumped the snap on both attempts and at the goal line, the risk-reward trade off there is great. If the officials don’t call it (both were close), South Carolina gets the ball.
— 16 plays and 74 yards later, yes it looks like South Carolina should have taken the ball first.
— I love the idea of having Dakereon Joyner return kicks. At the moment, he’s an electric playmaker that hasn’t made a huge impact on offense. He’s the perfect option as a kick returner.
— I mentioned in my Analytics preview that this is a great matchup for Shi Smith. A little jet flip to Smith on the first play has LSU all sorts of confused. That play sets up really well for play action later in the game (Get the linebackers flowing side-to-side pre-snap and throw a slant or deep in off of a fake to Smith).
— Kevin Harris goes for six right off of that, with a counter out of the shotgun. Harris was sprung by a huge block from Jazston Turnetine on the edge and there was nobody in the gap. That was an easy touchdown for Harris.
— South Carolina needs to do better defensively on first downs. LSU has not been explosive in the first quarter, but is picking up five yards almost every play. As I type that, South gives up back-to-back big plays, the first of which looked like an accidental pick play.
— I expected Jaycee Horn to shadow Terrance Marshall. LSU has moved Marshall to the slot, but Horn is one of the few top corners in the country that doesn’t mind playing inside or outside. I don’t like Marshall against Jammie Robinson, who is a strong corner but doesn’t excel in man coverage as much as a guy like Horn. As I type that, Robinson holds Marshall on third-and-long.
— From an unbiased perspective, this matchup between the LSU receivers and South Carolina defensive backs is so fun to watch. I’m talking about “Deebo Samuel on a kickoff return” fun to watch. Each group will have its fair share of wins. Jaycee Horn one-on-one with 5-star athletic freak of nature Arik Gilbert on a fade route was fun. Advantage: Horn.
— Major failure from the South Carolina offensive line on the second drive. Two whiffs on well designed plays lead to a 3-and-out that went 14 yards backwards. Jovaughn Gwiyn missed on a well-designed misdirection to Harris, then Turnetine whiffed on freshman BJ Ojulari for a massive sack on a third-down screen attempt that looked promising but for the pressure.
— This has been an ugly game from a penalty perspective. South Carolina has had several penalties as a result of being aggressive (Those are killer, but you can live with them) while LSU has had four or five procedure and formation penalties. If the Tigers clean those up, they could pull away.
— If South Carolina doesn’t start blitzing — frequently — LSU’s offense will impose its will. The Tiger offensive line is too good to rush four against. I’ve mentioned several times before that most quarterbacks, regardless of experience level, are good from a clean pocket.
— Horn moves inside on Marshall, LSU recognizes man coverage, runs a pick play and South Carolina doesn’t switch. It leads to an easy touchdown for LSU on third and seven.
— South Carolina responds with play action, max-protection and Hill finds Keveon Mullins wide open. He throws a great deep ball, they just haven’t done it a lot. Hill follows that up by running into a sack and then double-clutching when he had a wide open receiver for a touchdown. He’s done that a lot this year, but that cost South Carolina points. There are open receivers everywhere and South Carolina can’t do anything about it.
— This looks like it’s going to come down to in-game coaching adjustments, so advantage LSU.
— Potential game-changing interception from Israel Mukuamu. Looked like South Carolina went zone there for one of the first times all game. Mukuamu’s interceptions usually come in zone coverage and it worked there.
— LSU has a pass rush win rate of about 60 percent right now, which means South Carolina will only be able to score off of explosive plays. Any hopes of driving methodically down the field are dashed if Collin Hill is going to face pressure every other pass play (and run into pressure on half of the plays without pressure).
— I’ll say it again, South Carolina has to bring pressure. I don’t think Finley has been pressured yet (Through 16 attempts). Ernest Jones has 10 tackles but goes down injured. LSU runs it up the gut for a first down, then runs no huddle to run the same play again before South Carolina can substitute Jones back into the game. That’s elite coaching.
— The touchdown to Terrance Marshall was bad, bad defense. A simple clearout route short of the sticks turns into a 52-yard touchdown when South Carolina can’t make the tackle. This could get ugly, as South Carolina is simply getting outcoached.
— Collin Hill has been incredibly slow in his progressions so far. He’s had guys open but is running himself into pressure by waiting until they’re free rather than throwing it as the receivers come open. As I type that, Hill throws one of the worst pick sixes I’ve seen all season.
— Shi Smith hasn’t been targeted since the opening play of the game. First, it says a lot about Derek Stingley, but South Carolina has to scheme Shi open.
— South Carolina’s quarterback is struggling and the running backs are averaging 13.1 yards a carry. South Carolina attempted passes on 67 percent of plays. Knocking on the door at the end of the half, the Gamecocks called two passes, Hill scrambled from a clean pocket on both, then threw again on third and five and kicked a field goal. They missed — deservingly. Everything about that sequence was terrible.
— I was going to leave it at that, but as I sit here at halftime, I can’t help but thinking how silly that entire sequence was. Keep in mind, South Carolina deferred in the first half, promptly giving up a 16-play touchdown drive. The Gamecocks then kicked a field goal down 21 before the half when they get the ball to start the second half. Worst case scenario, they come up short and stay down three scores. Best case scenario with a field goal, they go down… three scores. It just doesn’t make sense.
— I’m not usually one to advocate running more and passing less, especially when losing, but South Carolina absolutely needs to come out of halftime running. Keep in mind college football box scores include sack yardage in rushing stats. The running backs averaged 13.1 yards per rush but attempted just seven called runs. The other six runs were three sacks, two scrambles and a reverse.
— We’re into the third quarter now, Kevin Harris is balling and should touch the ball every play until he’s tired. Then Deshaun Fenwick should touch the ball every play until Harris is no longer tired.
— After I typed that, South Carolina went Luke Doty(!), Fenwick, Fenwick, Harris, Harris for a touchdown. 31-17 but it could possibly be 31-24 with some better decision-making at the end of the first half.
— Aaaaaanndddddddd a kickoff return touchdown. It looked like the bobble got Ernest Jones and Jordan Burch out of their lanes.
— If you had Keveon Mullins catching two passes over 40 yards in the game, please give me the winning lottery numbers. The second came on the greatest play in football, a tight end wheel route.
— After LSU finally gets some stops against the run, Hill takes a sack when it looked like he had Shi Smith in one-on-one coverage in the end zone. Parker White then misses his third field goal of the game, which is just indicative of how this game has gone. Over 15 percent of his career misses have come directly following a sack — I don’t have any analysis there, I just find it interesting.
— On the field goals, if the Gamecocks had hit all three, they’d still be down two scores. If they’d scored a touchdown on one of those drives, they’d be down two scores. The fact is, in the current college football climate, field goals are fairly meaningless.
— If for no other reason than to protect him, I think Collin Hill needs to be taken out of this game. He’s been indecisive (though fairly accurate) this game, but I think you have to see what this offense could be with Ryan Hilinski at the helm. Coming into this game, Hill was near the bottom of the league in yards per attempt. Against an LSU defense that made Connor Bazelak and KJ Costello look like Heisman contenders, Hill has taken several unnecessary sacks, scrambled from a clean pocket three times and had a bad pick six. It has hurt the offense immensely.
— Arik Gilbert on anyone not named Jaycee Horn is a mismatch. Unfortunately for South Carolina, Terrance Marshall on anyone not named Jaycee Horn is also a mismatch. To my knowledge, Jaycee Horn can't be in two places at once. To clarify, that’s not a slight against South Carolina’s defensive backs, as anyone who has read my writing knows I’m very high on that group. It’s just a fact that LSU has a ton of weapons.
— I’ve never understood the thought process behind riding with a struggling quarterback in a blowout and tonight was no exception. It was a missed opportunity to see Ryan Hilinski or even Luke Doty in this offense.
— Overall, this was a disaster. Even after everything, a kickoff return touchdown, pick six and several missed opportunities on offense made it worse than it was, but we’ve seen that before. It’s back to the drawing board and honestly, I don’t know what’s next.
