C
Collyn Taylor
Guest
The NCAA's first NET rankings came out this week with the Gamecocks debuting at No. 145 in the NET out of 353 DI basketball teams. It's not a great ranking, but it has a chance to be better and there are chances to really boost that ranking over the next two months. Bottom line, this NET ranking is suffering from a small sample size and will get closer to what the Gamecocks' typical NET ranking will be.
How the NET works: So the NET puts different values on each team and assigns them to a Quad (1-4) with teams notching different levels of wins based on opponents and game site (home, away or neutral.
Quadrant 1: Home 1-30, Neutral 1-50, Away 1-75
Quadrant 2: Home 31-75, Neutral 51-100, Away 76-135
Quadrant 3: Home 76-160, Neutral 101-200, Away 135-240
Quadrant 4: Home 161-353, Neutral 201-353, Away 241-353
It also takes into account margin of victory and awards teams an Adjusted Win Percentage (AWP) with different values getting assigned to home wins/losses compared to neutral site wins/losses and road wins/losses. Efficiency numbers (points scored and points allowed per 100 possessions) also weigh heavily into this ranking.
Full disclosure: I'm not a fan of the NET and think some of its metrics are contradictory but it's what the NCAA is using, so we have to analyze it and let's get to it.
Why the Gamecocks are 145: On the surface, the Gamecocks don't have an elite win on it's schedule, which brings it down a little bit. Their seven wins have come over NET 273, 289, 294, 280, 235, 158 and 139 with the best win (No. 139) coming Sunday at Clemson.
They actually do have two road wins—at UMass and Clemson—which is plus-1.4 in the adjusted win percentage and actually goes along way in boosting a NET ranking. South Carolina's home loss (minus-1.4 in the AWP) against Boston, which is NET No. 223, brings down that NET ranking some as well.
Outside of Boston, the Gamecocks (7-4) don't have a bad loss in terms of NET rankings. They've lost to the NET No. 14, 28 and 68 teams this year outside of the Terriers.
Efficiency numbers are about average in terms of offensive efficiency but top 100 in defensive efficiency.
A look at the metrics the NET uses and how South Carolina compares: Like we mentioned earlier, the NET uses offensive and defensive efficiencies and the net efficiency here (O-D) and the AWP, which is their adjusted win totals over their adjusted loss totals.
Before we get into those, let's look at how the Gamecocks have done against each quad.
Quad 1: 0-2
Quad 2: 0-1
Quad 3: 3-1
Quad 4: 4-0
As for the efficiency numbers the Gamecocks rank No. 146 nationally scoring 101.4 points per 100 possessions and No. 80 nationally in defensive efficiency allowing 95.2 points per 100. That is a net efficiency of 6.2.
In 11 individual games, the Gamecocks have a positive double-digit net efficiency in five games (all wins) and a negative net efficiency in three of those.
As for AWP, the Gamecocks have five home wins, which are worth 0.6 points and two road wins, which are worth 1.4. Conversely, they have two home losses that's are 1.4-point knock apiece and two neutral site losses, both at minus-1.
When you do the math, it equates to an adjusted win percentage of 1.2, which is solid.
How the NET ranking can go up: So to say they have ample opportunities to get Quad I and Quad II wins is an understatement. Their next game is against UVA, which is NET 39, and all but two of their 18 SEC games are against teams currently in the NET 100, with half of those on the road.
The Gamecocks will need to win some of those games to watch that NET ranking creep up, which is easier said than done, but it's certainly feasible.
Right now, KenPom is predicting the Gamecocks to finish 15-16 on the year and 7-11 in the SEC.
How the NET works: So the NET puts different values on each team and assigns them to a Quad (1-4) with teams notching different levels of wins based on opponents and game site (home, away or neutral.
Quadrant 1: Home 1-30, Neutral 1-50, Away 1-75
Quadrant 2: Home 31-75, Neutral 51-100, Away 76-135
Quadrant 3: Home 76-160, Neutral 101-200, Away 135-240
Quadrant 4: Home 161-353, Neutral 201-353, Away 241-353
It also takes into account margin of victory and awards teams an Adjusted Win Percentage (AWP) with different values getting assigned to home wins/losses compared to neutral site wins/losses and road wins/losses. Efficiency numbers (points scored and points allowed per 100 possessions) also weigh heavily into this ranking.
Full disclosure: I'm not a fan of the NET and think some of its metrics are contradictory but it's what the NCAA is using, so we have to analyze it and let's get to it.
Why the Gamecocks are 145: On the surface, the Gamecocks don't have an elite win on it's schedule, which brings it down a little bit. Their seven wins have come over NET 273, 289, 294, 280, 235, 158 and 139 with the best win (No. 139) coming Sunday at Clemson.
They actually do have two road wins—at UMass and Clemson—which is plus-1.4 in the adjusted win percentage and actually goes along way in boosting a NET ranking. South Carolina's home loss (minus-1.4 in the AWP) against Boston, which is NET No. 223, brings down that NET ranking some as well.
Outside of Boston, the Gamecocks (7-4) don't have a bad loss in terms of NET rankings. They've lost to the NET No. 14, 28 and 68 teams this year outside of the Terriers.
Efficiency numbers are about average in terms of offensive efficiency but top 100 in defensive efficiency.
A look at the metrics the NET uses and how South Carolina compares: Like we mentioned earlier, the NET uses offensive and defensive efficiencies and the net efficiency here (O-D) and the AWP, which is their adjusted win totals over their adjusted loss totals.
Before we get into those, let's look at how the Gamecocks have done against each quad.
Quad 1: 0-2
Quad 2: 0-1
Quad 3: 3-1
Quad 4: 4-0
As for the efficiency numbers the Gamecocks rank No. 146 nationally scoring 101.4 points per 100 possessions and No. 80 nationally in defensive efficiency allowing 95.2 points per 100. That is a net efficiency of 6.2.
In 11 individual games, the Gamecocks have a positive double-digit net efficiency in five games (all wins) and a negative net efficiency in three of those.
As for AWP, the Gamecocks have five home wins, which are worth 0.6 points and two road wins, which are worth 1.4. Conversely, they have two home losses that's are 1.4-point knock apiece and two neutral site losses, both at minus-1.
When you do the math, it equates to an adjusted win percentage of 1.2, which is solid.
How the NET ranking can go up: So to say they have ample opportunities to get Quad I and Quad II wins is an understatement. Their next game is against UVA, which is NET 39, and all but two of their 18 SEC games are against teams currently in the NET 100, with half of those on the road.
The Gamecocks will need to win some of those games to watch that NET ranking creep up, which is easier said than done, but it's certainly feasible.
Right now, KenPom is predicting the Gamecocks to finish 15-16 on the year and 7-11 in the SEC.
