NOTE: All numbers are SEC-only statistics (that's why the league offensive and defensive averages are the same). The SEC rank is either explicitly stated or in parenthases.
First, some shooting numbers. LSU is a much superior offensive team, shooting an SEC-leading 52.6% inside the arc and 34.4% from outside (7th). Carolina, in contrast, shoots at a 47.2% clip inside (5th in the SEC) and 30.9% from downtown (13th). The SEC average for each stat is 47.1% and 34.9%, respectively.
On the other hand, we are a much better defensive team. LSU has arguably the SEC's worst interior defense, conceding on 50.7% of their shots, 13th in the conference. They are, however, much better from three, conceding on 32.6% of attempts (6th). Carolina's opponents shoot 43.9% inside (2nd) and 37.6% (10th) from long range against us. For reference, the SEC average is 47.1% and 34.9%, respectively.
Now some keys to the game, perhaps?
1) Own the offensive glass. Both teams are superb on the defensive side, with LSU snagging 74.2% of available boards and Carolina grabbing 71.0%; these figures rank 2nd and 4th in the SEC, respectively (the average is 68.8%). We should be able to stiffle LSU's second chance opportunities; for all their dominance on the defensive end, they grab a pedestrian 30.9% of possible offensive rebounds (8th, average 31.3%). That's not going to get it done against us. The real question is whether or not we can get the offensive rebounds we need. We do rank second in the SEC in offensive rebounding percentage at 38.5%, but living up to that lofty figure will be tough tomorrow night. It's no secret that we rely on the offensive glass to generate extra possessions; if we struggle from the field and can't grab any offensive rebounds, we'll be in deep trouble.
2) Protect the paint. Here's a fun stat for you: we have faced 250 total 3-point attempts, most in the SEC, and 44.6% of all attempts against us are from downtown, highest by far in the SEC (no one else cracks 40%). This would seem to indicate that opponents have incredible difficulty penetrating against us, resulting in a huge number of three point attempts. Here's a not-so-fun stat for you: 72.0% of LSU's attempts are from inside the arc, indicating that they are incredibly good at penetrating defenses. For reference, 63.9% of all attempts in SEC play are from inside and 36.1% are from three. This is strength against strength, plain and simple, and something's got to give.
That's about all I've got as far as Big Keys, but here are a few other interesting things. Carolina is last in the SEC in turnovers, with 153 total, and 13th in turnover rate, with one occurring every 4.650 attempts (SEC average: 5.381). However, we are also tied for first in turnovers forced, with 151 total, and 2nd in turnover rate, forcing a turnover every 4.432 attempts (SEC average: 5.381). LSU is pretty middle-of-the-road when it comes to turnovers; they don't commit too many, but they don't force a lot, either. They rank 6th in the SEC with one turnover every 5.779 attempts and force one every 5.717 attempts. I've also been toying with a new figure called Expected Net Points off Turnovers, and both teams come in pretty close to even (Carolina can expect to net -0.418 points in a game, while LSU can expect to net 0.218). Really, unless one team or the other has an outrageously good (or bad!) night, turnovers shouldn't have too much of an impact. Also potentially of interest is LSU's foul numbers; they are 2nd in the SEC in fouls per game, averaging 18.3, though that may be because they're too busy getting out of the way to foul (see their defensive 2-point percentage above).
DISCLAIMER: The above numbers are a mixture of traditional statistics taken from official box scores and advanced stats inspired by, but not identical to, sites such as KenPom. None of the above should be viewed as authoritative, but rather as some random dude's opinion. My degree is in engineering, not statistics, and I claim no special knowledge.
First, some shooting numbers. LSU is a much superior offensive team, shooting an SEC-leading 52.6% inside the arc and 34.4% from outside (7th). Carolina, in contrast, shoots at a 47.2% clip inside (5th in the SEC) and 30.9% from downtown (13th). The SEC average for each stat is 47.1% and 34.9%, respectively.
On the other hand, we are a much better defensive team. LSU has arguably the SEC's worst interior defense, conceding on 50.7% of their shots, 13th in the conference. They are, however, much better from three, conceding on 32.6% of attempts (6th). Carolina's opponents shoot 43.9% inside (2nd) and 37.6% (10th) from long range against us. For reference, the SEC average is 47.1% and 34.9%, respectively.
Now some keys to the game, perhaps?
1) Own the offensive glass. Both teams are superb on the defensive side, with LSU snagging 74.2% of available boards and Carolina grabbing 71.0%; these figures rank 2nd and 4th in the SEC, respectively (the average is 68.8%). We should be able to stiffle LSU's second chance opportunities; for all their dominance on the defensive end, they grab a pedestrian 30.9% of possible offensive rebounds (8th, average 31.3%). That's not going to get it done against us. The real question is whether or not we can get the offensive rebounds we need. We do rank second in the SEC in offensive rebounding percentage at 38.5%, but living up to that lofty figure will be tough tomorrow night. It's no secret that we rely on the offensive glass to generate extra possessions; if we struggle from the field and can't grab any offensive rebounds, we'll be in deep trouble.
2) Protect the paint. Here's a fun stat for you: we have faced 250 total 3-point attempts, most in the SEC, and 44.6% of all attempts against us are from downtown, highest by far in the SEC (no one else cracks 40%). This would seem to indicate that opponents have incredible difficulty penetrating against us, resulting in a huge number of three point attempts. Here's a not-so-fun stat for you: 72.0% of LSU's attempts are from inside the arc, indicating that they are incredibly good at penetrating defenses. For reference, 63.9% of all attempts in SEC play are from inside and 36.1% are from three. This is strength against strength, plain and simple, and something's got to give.
That's about all I've got as far as Big Keys, but here are a few other interesting things. Carolina is last in the SEC in turnovers, with 153 total, and 13th in turnover rate, with one occurring every 4.650 attempts (SEC average: 5.381). However, we are also tied for first in turnovers forced, with 151 total, and 2nd in turnover rate, forcing a turnover every 4.432 attempts (SEC average: 5.381). LSU is pretty middle-of-the-road when it comes to turnovers; they don't commit too many, but they don't force a lot, either. They rank 6th in the SEC with one turnover every 5.779 attempts and force one every 5.717 attempts. I've also been toying with a new figure called Expected Net Points off Turnovers, and both teams come in pretty close to even (Carolina can expect to net -0.418 points in a game, while LSU can expect to net 0.218). Really, unless one team or the other has an outrageously good (or bad!) night, turnovers shouldn't have too much of an impact. Also potentially of interest is LSU's foul numbers; they are 2nd in the SEC in fouls per game, averaging 18.3, though that may be because they're too busy getting out of the way to foul (see their defensive 2-point percentage above).
DISCLAIMER: The above numbers are a mixture of traditional statistics taken from official box scores and advanced stats inspired by, but not identical to, sites such as KenPom. None of the above should be viewed as authoritative, but rather as some random dude's opinion. My degree is in engineering, not statistics, and I claim no special knowledge.
