Here’s a quick breakdown of what to look for on our schedule (H=home, @=away, N=neutral, 2=two games):
Non-Conference Games
Teams We Can’t Lose To (4):
Allen (H) - obviously
SC State (H) - one of the worst teams in D1
Rider (H)- rebuilding a program near the bottom of the MAAC
USC Upstate (H)- just not in our boat talent-wise
Teams We SHOULD Beat But Could Be Sneaky Scary (3):
Coastal (@)- they’ll probably be down, but playing on the road anytime is hard
Wofford (H) and Army (H) - same thing goes for both, there’s a significant talent gap, but both teams can make 3s, which means upsets are possible
Teams We’re Basically Even With (5):
The two games in Asheville (2N)- start with Princeton, a team we probably should beat, but is no slouch, followed by either W. Kentucky or Minnesota, both teams we probably have more talent than but who will see us as beatable
UAB (H)- we’re more talented, but they’re well-coached and have been winning lately
Georgetown (H)- struggled last year, until they got hot in the Big East tourney and earned an auto bid to the Dance, and they have improved their recruiting levels
Clemson (@) - in a similar boat in terms of replacing the best player, but they were a much stronger team than us last season
Team We Will Be The Clear Underdog Against (1):
Florida State (N) - top 10 talent, no doubt
Analysis: We SHOULD go 7-0 against the first two groups, but with an all new team, having consistent chemistry issues that usually come in that situation will often set up stumbles. IF we go 7-0 in those games, going 3-3 against the top 6 (doable but by no means a sure thing) would give us 10 non-conference wins. IF we can pull that off, that would be a positive sign going into SEC play. If not, it’ll be an uphill battle for tourney recognition against a conference that racked up better than anyone in the transfer portal.
Conference Games:
Top Tier (5 games) - teams who are clearly stocked with the most talent:
Kentucky (H)
Alabama (@)
Arkansas (@)
Tennessee (2)
Right Behind (4 games) - teams who appear talented enough to challenge the top:
Auburn (2)
Florida (H)
LSU (H)
The Mississippis (3 games) - both teams racked up in the transfer portal, still yet to be seen how good they’ll actually be:
Mississippi St. (2)
Ole Miss (@)
Ready to Move (4 games) - teams whose fanbases, especially Mizzou, have reason to believe their teams can outshine preseason predictions (this would be the tier we would fall initially, too):
Missouri (H)
A&M (@)
Vanderbilt (2)
The Bottom (2 games) - still got good transfers, but lost the best of their best, resulting in the only apparent net negative in the league, and they weren’t great last year to begin with:
Georgia (2)
Analysis: It’s too early to make any real analysis, but no one (outside of maybe Kentucky) will have talent that clearly outshines ours. And no one will be incapable of beating us. When I say that, the way our schedule shapes up, we could finish anywhere between the top 4 and the bottom 2, it’s not an exaggeration.
Overall? It’s impossible to make a prediction. For those who say we’re a below .500 team, that’s well within reason and wouldn’t even constitute a disastrous season. Think about it, if we go 9-4 in the non-conference and 6-12 in conference, that pretty much meets where most people’s expectations of this team would be right now - and that’s a below .500 record. But a 20-win season that ends in a tourney berth is also within reason - going 10-3 in non-conference and 10-8 in conference both seem completely reasonable outcomes too. And seeing as we just don’t know anything about how our team will play together as brand new as they are, it’s impossible to make any real prediction on how they’ll fare.
Non-Conference Games
Teams We Can’t Lose To (4):
Allen (H) - obviously
SC State (H) - one of the worst teams in D1
Rider (H)- rebuilding a program near the bottom of the MAAC
USC Upstate (H)- just not in our boat talent-wise
Teams We SHOULD Beat But Could Be Sneaky Scary (3):
Coastal (@)- they’ll probably be down, but playing on the road anytime is hard
Wofford (H) and Army (H) - same thing goes for both, there’s a significant talent gap, but both teams can make 3s, which means upsets are possible
Teams We’re Basically Even With (5):
The two games in Asheville (2N)- start with Princeton, a team we probably should beat, but is no slouch, followed by either W. Kentucky or Minnesota, both teams we probably have more talent than but who will see us as beatable
UAB (H)- we’re more talented, but they’re well-coached and have been winning lately
Georgetown (H)- struggled last year, until they got hot in the Big East tourney and earned an auto bid to the Dance, and they have improved their recruiting levels
Clemson (@) - in a similar boat in terms of replacing the best player, but they were a much stronger team than us last season
Team We Will Be The Clear Underdog Against (1):
Florida State (N) - top 10 talent, no doubt
Analysis: We SHOULD go 7-0 against the first two groups, but with an all new team, having consistent chemistry issues that usually come in that situation will often set up stumbles. IF we go 7-0 in those games, going 3-3 against the top 6 (doable but by no means a sure thing) would give us 10 non-conference wins. IF we can pull that off, that would be a positive sign going into SEC play. If not, it’ll be an uphill battle for tourney recognition against a conference that racked up better than anyone in the transfer portal.
Conference Games:
Top Tier (5 games) - teams who are clearly stocked with the most talent:
Kentucky (H)
Alabama (@)
Arkansas (@)
Tennessee (2)
Right Behind (4 games) - teams who appear talented enough to challenge the top:
Auburn (2)
Florida (H)
LSU (H)
The Mississippis (3 games) - both teams racked up in the transfer portal, still yet to be seen how good they’ll actually be:
Mississippi St. (2)
Ole Miss (@)
Ready to Move (4 games) - teams whose fanbases, especially Mizzou, have reason to believe their teams can outshine preseason predictions (this would be the tier we would fall initially, too):
Missouri (H)
A&M (@)
Vanderbilt (2)
The Bottom (2 games) - still got good transfers, but lost the best of their best, resulting in the only apparent net negative in the league, and they weren’t great last year to begin with:
Georgia (2)
Analysis: It’s too early to make any real analysis, but no one (outside of maybe Kentucky) will have talent that clearly outshines ours. And no one will be incapable of beating us. When I say that, the way our schedule shapes up, we could finish anywhere between the top 4 and the bottom 2, it’s not an exaggeration.
Overall? It’s impossible to make a prediction. For those who say we’re a below .500 team, that’s well within reason and wouldn’t even constitute a disastrous season. Think about it, if we go 9-4 in the non-conference and 6-12 in conference, that pretty much meets where most people’s expectations of this team would be right now - and that’s a below .500 record. But a 20-win season that ends in a tourney berth is also within reason - going 10-3 in non-conference and 10-8 in conference both seem completely reasonable outcomes too. And seeing as we just don’t know anything about how our team will play together as brand new as they are, it’s impossible to make any real prediction on how they’ll fare.
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