Ward, I'm going by memory, BUT, don't you hold GDX and PICK, as well as a crypto stock? How would you feel as a GDX-holder about this?
OT: 11 Bitcoin ETFs Approved by SEC.
- Thread starter Ward Jr
- Start date
Hi Stock - No. At one time I held these but rotated much of my capital into DEFI plays awhile back. With that said, Bitcoin or major DEFI players are both going to benefit from this new Trump administration as they are all in across the board.
The way I look at it is Bitcoin will likely 10-20x over the next four years but DEFI plays have the opportunity to do 100x+. That's obviously just a guess though.
It is possible that if Trump moves forward with the proposed Bitcoin reserve, other countries (and companies) quickly follow and the thing is at $5-10 million in a flash due to the scarce supply and global reach. FOMO is a powerful drug.
Either way, if Trump and his appointees get in place, we're likely looking at one of the biggest wealth transfers in history.
The Biden Administration & Establishment Republicans did their insider trading thing over years on end and enrichment themselves tremendously while the average American sucked wind and inflation from their maneuvers (money printing, etc.)
This is much different. Trump & Co. are telling the world that they want the US to be the crypto headquarters of the world and they aren't being shy about it.
It can accomplish a whole host of things like reducing/eliminating our massive debt, cancelling BRICS, etc so it's a win-win.
IMO, they are also unapologetically signaling for Americans to get on the bus now if they want to ride the wave.
WOW re: DEFI. I will definitely look into that, in case I decide to go long on Bitcoin. I still have my short position on Bitcoin, BUT, I don't stay "married" to any position. In the back of my mind, I felt that Bitcoin could get to 104,000ish. I will stop out if it goes much beyond the 105,000s. But, right now, I'm sticking to my short.
OT: I could be wrong though, like I was wrong about Beamer (and glad I was wrong). BTW, did you see that Dowell Loggains is the top candidate to be Appalachian State's next Head Coach? I'm fine with that because Sellers saved Loggain's rear end many times this season.
Yeah, there's a pretty good chance Bitcoin continues to march higher. There will be a sharp correction though at some point that's going to scare alot of weak hands out before a powerful move to the upside. My guess is that they will engineer a good entry point for the US Government to get their first new allotment of BTC at a deep discount - possibly 30-40% lower that whatever retail OTC is at that time. If I was a new investor just getting in, that's what I would look for.
I'm torn on Loggains. Outside of Sellers and Sanders, we didn't have much talent on offense and he managed to figure out a system in which Sellers began to flourish the 2nd half of the season -- especially the assortment of QB Power Plays. If given the choice, I think I would prefer to keep him as he and Sellers seemed to be on the same page at the end of the season and that's not always the case with a QB and OC.
A good approach for taking profits at large
For when the market gets too hot and the time comes
1) Sell all your alts
2) Buy bitcoin
3) Short bitcoin futures against your spot
4) Lock the carry for 2 to 6 months
5) Sit back, relax, and profit
A good signal would be when the bitcoin futures 3 month annualized basis goes to around 30% or so.
When that happens, by shorting futures against spot you can lock in that rate of return until futures expiry (the implied rate of return is the so-called carry).
Quasi guaranteed.
You short futures rather than perps, to lock the carry (the return). The carry you get from perps changes every few hours, and cannot be locked in.
In April 2021 for example, you could have locked 50% in, annualized.
When that yield gets too high it drives smart money to take profit. It also means the market is levered to the brim.
(Note that the actual return would vary depending on things such as bid-ask spreads and slippage. This trade also has counterparty risk. This is not financial advice, DYOR)
For when the market gets too hot and the time comes
1) Sell all your alts
2) Buy bitcoin
3) Short bitcoin futures against your spot
4) Lock the carry for 2 to 6 months
5) Sit back, relax, and profit
A good signal would be when the bitcoin futures 3 month annualized basis goes to around 30% or so.
When that happens, by shorting futures against spot you can lock in that rate of return until futures expiry (the implied rate of return is the so-called carry).
Quasi guaranteed.
You short futures rather than perps, to lock the carry (the return). The carry you get from perps changes every few hours, and cannot be locked in.
In April 2021 for example, you could have locked 50% in, annualized.
When that yield gets too high it drives smart money to take profit. It also means the market is levered to the brim.
(Note that the actual return would vary depending on things such as bid-ask spreads and slippage. This trade also has counterparty risk. This is not financial advice, DYOR)
Ward,
I was just thinking (which is dangerous...LOL). Let's say that we are both right about Bitcoin. Remember, I said that I believe that Bitcoin is going down to sub-50,000, with the potential of going down to 20,000 into late 2025/26 (NOTE: I will cover if it goes much beyond the 105,000s). And then, your "guess" of Bitcoin going 10x-20x over the next 4 years. We both could be right based on timing. That would be an epic buying opportunity, one for the ages.
You mention DEFI. While you think Bitcoin could go 10-20x over the next 4 years, DEFI could do 100x. (NOTE: I realize you are guessing). I looked at a chart comparing Bitcoin to DEFI over the past year. They trace identically. How do you come up with that leverage in DEFI?
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When you look at the inflows from ETFs, the Trump Administration agenda, Asia's interest, etc. - it's very hard to envision Bitcoin doing anything like that. My guess it is goes somewhere between $150,000-500,000 in 2025. There could be a cool off at some point. However, it's not going to drop like it has in the past with all of these major financial institutions now involved. It's a totally new world now.
In terms of DEFI, it's trended with BTC on the rise, but there will be a period when it goes crazy -- probably in the near future. DEFI ALTs with utility have already been outperforming BTC over the past month. It should accelerate soon.
Tokenization of all assets (stocks, bonds, real estate, insurance, etc.) will be the catalyst and Blackrock is out in front leading the charge. Trump has also discussed this as well so Fink and the boys are ready to roll very soon once the regulation fog clears from the Biden Administration who has been attempting to block this from happening to protect TRADEFI for years. This is one of the reasons why everyone loathes Gensler and he's gone in January to make room for the new crypto-friendly SEC Chair. Fireworks next year are almost guaranteed at this point for the new financial system overhaul.
Thanks. Well, I have the point where I will go long, or at least no longer short. I'll keep an eye on DEFI to see how it does.
He is one of the few on Wall Street I have great respect for. And from conversations with my brother and his son, they do as well. Tom also predicts the S&P 500 hitting 15,000 by the end of this decade (finished today @ 6084.19).
Thanks for posting. Always good to know what Tom is thinking.
Not an overall good day today for me. Investing, like in sports, elections, dating, job prospects, etc...you win some and you lose some. Though not a good day in the market for me, I did take huge profits in natural gas. I learned long ago that you got to stuff natty profits in your pocket or they can disappear like a fart in the wind. They don't refer to natural gas as the "widow maker" for nothing. So, a big win day in that sector in an overall down day. Got to get ready to go to a visitation for an Aunt that passed away, the last of Aunts and Uncles for me. So now, all of my Mom's and Dad's relative generation, including my Mom and Dad, are gone. If you live long enough, that becomes the background of your life.
2025 looks like will be the year of crypto. Trump can't stop talking about it.
Looks like the Dow will finally break its losing streak today. Its current losing streak is the longest since the days I was a young USC student when I chased after young wild women. But now, I'm lucky to just get out of my chair without pain. 
I just booked my swing bitcoin short for profit in my tax deferred account to raise cash. Bitcoin will be entering a "sell the rip" region soon. But looking into later 2025 and 2026, I still expect at least a 50% pullback. I know I'm in the minority about Bitcoin here. But I often don't follow the herd.
I’ve got both sides covered with BITO and BITI. Perfect hedge while getting monthly dividends on both ETFs.
While there's a commercial break on UT-Ohio State game, I just want to state this: The S&P 500 rose 67.8% when Trump was President. If it rises that much again in the next 4 years, it will be near 10,000. That would be great. I don't put much in crypto (5%). Right now, I have nothing in it after closing my short. But, if crypto falls as much as I expect, I will definitely back up the truck. I just hope that the overall market does as well in Trump 2.0 as it did in Trump 1.0. I make no secret that I did not vote for Trump. But I'm pulling for him so that America will be successful. There are too many people on BOTH sides who want the other side to fail. I don't get that. That's like pulling against yourself. I like some of Trump's picks (Rubio, Stefanik, Burgum, Bessent, Wiles). Not all, obviously. Anyway, keeping my fingers crossed that the economy and stock market will continue doing well.
