Link to the last Resume post (12/31): https://southcarolina.forums.rivals...na-mbb-resume-12-31-2019.321516/#post-4919392
Link to Full NET Rankings: https://www.ncaa.com/rankings/basketball-men/d1/ncaa-mens-basketball-net-rankings
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For us:
Quadrant 1: (3-3)
Wins: Virginia, Clemson, Kentucky
Losses: Wichita State, Northern Iowa, Tennessee
Quadrant 2: (0-2)
Wins:
Losses: Houston, Florida
Quadrant 3: (2-0)
Wins: Texas A&M, UMass
Losses:
Quadrant 4: (5-2)
Wins: UNA, Wyoming, Cleveland State, Gardner-Webb, George Washington
Losses: Boston, Stetson
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Notes on teams we've played:
North Alabama - Nothing interesting. Terrible team. Will stay a Quad 4 win.
Wyoming - Nothing interesting. Terrible team. Will stay a Quad 4 win.
Cleveland St. - Nothing interesting. Terrible team. Will stay a Quad 4 win.
Boston University - I mentioned in the previous resue post that Boston is playing very well in conference. They lost to Colgate on Saturday, as expected, but actually moved up in NET. KenPom has them projected to win but all but 3 of their remaining games. I think it's possible they win all of them minus their other CoColgateglate game. That would put them firmly in Quad 3 as we will only need them to move up 18 more spots. They are currently 178 -> 160 is Quadrant 3. This is still an ugly loss, but limiting our quad 4 losses to 1 would be huge. Could be a Quad 3 loss by season's end. I know that is still bad, but anything is better than Quad 4 loss which is why I made it green.
Gardner Webb - Nothing interesting. Terrible team. Will stay a Quad 4 win.
Wichita St. - Suffered second straight liss (3rd on the year) Saturday to Houston, of of our opponents. I imagine this stays as a Quad 1 loss, worst-case scenario Quad 2 and it would take them having some bad conference losses to push them that far back. Per KenPom, they are only projected for four more losses. If that is the case they will remain a Quad 1 loss.
Northern Iowa - Huge conference favorites but in a bad conference so 1 or 2 more slip-ups like losing to Illinois State and they could fall to a Quad 2 loss.
George Washington - Nothing interesting. Terrible team. Will stay a Quad 4 win barring more sneaky wins like defeating George Mason.
Massachusetts - A loss to George Washington sucked the air right of this team. They dropped to Quadrant 3 which was expected, but wasn't expected this soon. Likely a Quadrant 3 win in the end.
Houston - Incredible team and by season's end would've been considered our best win had we been able to do so. They defeated Wichita State on the road on Saturday and that boosted their NET. They should continue competing in-conference and will end up with a tournament bid. This will stay a Quad 1 loss barring extreme choking.
Clemson - If they lose their next game, I fear they will end up as a Quad 2 win. They are already on the border (#75 in NET which is the line for Quad 1 road wins). Quad 2 wins are still good, but we need that Quad 1 win.
Virginia - Virginia is in a major slump, but they will turn it around and winning against Georgia Tech on Saturday is a good start. They are too good of a team with too good of a coach not to end up ner the top of the ACC. Will stay a Quad 1 win.
Stetson - Nothing interesting. Terrible team. Worst loss in Frank's career. This good startin conference play isn't fooling anyone and Liberty should easily be the one bid from that conference. Will stay a Quad 4 loss.
Florida - Huge win against Auburn and no douby Florida will be competing for the #1 seed in SEC. I think this will move into a Quad 1 loss. Again, I know losing is bad, but a loss moving up a quadrant is good. Once they get past LSU and Baylor, they enter a very weak stretch of SEC games.
Tennessee - I can't figure this team out. Blown out by Georgia, then blows out Vanderbilt. They could finish as an 8 seed and it wouldn't surprise me any more than if they finished Top 4. No comment. I hope it stays Quad 1 loss but I honestly have no idea. We will know alot more about their improved roster (two additions since Christmas) when they take on Kansas.
Kentucky - This will stay as a Quad 1 win.
Texas A&M - Losing to us at home by double digits kicked them back into Quad 3. I have a feeling that is where they will stay, but I'm not ruling out Quad 4 by end of season. Buzz Williams is an incredible coach, but he just doesn't have the talent he needs yet. If Nebo, Flagg, or Gordon get injured this team could easily go winless the rest of the way which is actually what KenPom projects.
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My Projection:
Quadrant 1: (2-4)
Wins: Virginia, Kentucky
Losses: Wichita State, Tennessee, Houston, Florida
Quadrant 2: (1-1)
Wins: Clemson
Losses: Northern Iowa
Quadrant 3: (1-1)
Wins: UMass
Losses: Boston
Quadrant 4: (6-1)
Wins: UNA, Wyoming, Cleveland State, Gardner-Webb, George Washington, Texas A&M
Losses: Stetson
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Next Opponent: Auburn (NET #20) - Talk about overrated. There was no reason for them to be ranked #4 in the AP Poll. Their best win was maybe NC State, who at the time hadn't played anyone. Then you had Richmond and Saint Louis who I'm guessing the AP was overrating those wins? Colgate is the only opponent of there's, prior to SEC play, that is projected to make the tournament, NC State is listed as "Last 4 in" and will need to continue impressing in conference. Don't get me wrong, Auburn is a very good team and I wouldn't be surprised to see them handle us pretty well especially at home; however, they are not a Top 25 team. KenPom give us a 16% chance to win. I think its higher because KenPom can't properly weigh the fact that we are getting little to no statistical production from our best players. If Kotsar and Lawson round into form then I would more than double that 16% chance to win. It will still be a tough game to win on the road, but if we compete then it will be very promising for our next 6 games in which we very well could go 5-1 or 6-0.
Love to hear everyone's thoughts below!
Link to Full NET Rankings: https://www.ncaa.com/rankings/basketball-men/d1/ncaa-mens-basketball-net-rankings
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For us:
Quadrant 1: (3-3)
Wins: Virginia, Clemson, Kentucky
Losses: Wichita State, Northern Iowa, Tennessee
Quadrant 2: (0-2)
Wins:
Losses: Houston, Florida
Quadrant 3: (2-0)
Wins: Texas A&M, UMass
Losses:
Quadrant 4: (5-2)
Wins: UNA, Wyoming, Cleveland State, Gardner-Webb, George Washington
Losses: Boston, Stetson
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Notes on teams we've played:
North Alabama - Nothing interesting. Terrible team. Will stay a Quad 4 win.
Wyoming - Nothing interesting. Terrible team. Will stay a Quad 4 win.
Cleveland St. - Nothing interesting. Terrible team. Will stay a Quad 4 win.
Boston University - I mentioned in the previous resue post that Boston is playing very well in conference. They lost to Colgate on Saturday, as expected, but actually moved up in NET. KenPom has them projected to win but all but 3 of their remaining games. I think it's possible they win all of them minus their other CoColgateglate game. That would put them firmly in Quad 3 as we will only need them to move up 18 more spots. They are currently 178 -> 160 is Quadrant 3. This is still an ugly loss, but limiting our quad 4 losses to 1 would be huge. Could be a Quad 3 loss by season's end. I know that is still bad, but anything is better than Quad 4 loss which is why I made it green.
Gardner Webb - Nothing interesting. Terrible team. Will stay a Quad 4 win.
Wichita St. - Suffered second straight liss (3rd on the year) Saturday to Houston, of of our opponents. I imagine this stays as a Quad 1 loss, worst-case scenario Quad 2 and it would take them having some bad conference losses to push them that far back. Per KenPom, they are only projected for four more losses. If that is the case they will remain a Quad 1 loss.
Northern Iowa - Huge conference favorites but in a bad conference so 1 or 2 more slip-ups like losing to Illinois State and they could fall to a Quad 2 loss.
George Washington - Nothing interesting. Terrible team. Will stay a Quad 4 win barring more sneaky wins like defeating George Mason.
Massachusetts - A loss to George Washington sucked the air right of this team. They dropped to Quadrant 3 which was expected, but wasn't expected this soon. Likely a Quadrant 3 win in the end.
Houston - Incredible team and by season's end would've been considered our best win had we been able to do so. They defeated Wichita State on the road on Saturday and that boosted their NET. They should continue competing in-conference and will end up with a tournament bid. This will stay a Quad 1 loss barring extreme choking.
Clemson - If they lose their next game, I fear they will end up as a Quad 2 win. They are already on the border (#75 in NET which is the line for Quad 1 road wins). Quad 2 wins are still good, but we need that Quad 1 win.
Virginia - Virginia is in a major slump, but they will turn it around and winning against Georgia Tech on Saturday is a good start. They are too good of a team with too good of a coach not to end up ner the top of the ACC. Will stay a Quad 1 win.
Stetson - Nothing interesting. Terrible team. Worst loss in Frank's career. This good startin conference play isn't fooling anyone and Liberty should easily be the one bid from that conference. Will stay a Quad 4 loss.
Florida - Huge win against Auburn and no douby Florida will be competing for the #1 seed in SEC. I think this will move into a Quad 1 loss. Again, I know losing is bad, but a loss moving up a quadrant is good. Once they get past LSU and Baylor, they enter a very weak stretch of SEC games.
Tennessee - I can't figure this team out. Blown out by Georgia, then blows out Vanderbilt. They could finish as an 8 seed and it wouldn't surprise me any more than if they finished Top 4. No comment. I hope it stays Quad 1 loss but I honestly have no idea. We will know alot more about their improved roster (two additions since Christmas) when they take on Kansas.
Kentucky - This will stay as a Quad 1 win.
Texas A&M - Losing to us at home by double digits kicked them back into Quad 3. I have a feeling that is where they will stay, but I'm not ruling out Quad 4 by end of season. Buzz Williams is an incredible coach, but he just doesn't have the talent he needs yet. If Nebo, Flagg, or Gordon get injured this team could easily go winless the rest of the way which is actually what KenPom projects.
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My Projection:
Quadrant 1: (2-4)
Wins: Virginia, Kentucky
Losses: Wichita State, Tennessee, Houston, Florida
Quadrant 2: (1-1)
Wins: Clemson
Losses: Northern Iowa
Quadrant 3: (1-1)
Wins: UMass
Losses: Boston
Quadrant 4: (6-1)
Wins: UNA, Wyoming, Cleveland State, Gardner-Webb, George Washington, Texas A&M
Losses: Stetson
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Next Opponent: Auburn (NET #20) - Talk about overrated. There was no reason for them to be ranked #4 in the AP Poll. Their best win was maybe NC State, who at the time hadn't played anyone. Then you had Richmond and Saint Louis who I'm guessing the AP was overrating those wins? Colgate is the only opponent of there's, prior to SEC play, that is projected to make the tournament, NC State is listed as "Last 4 in" and will need to continue impressing in conference. Don't get me wrong, Auburn is a very good team and I wouldn't be surprised to see them handle us pretty well especially at home; however, they are not a Top 25 team. KenPom give us a 16% chance to win. I think its higher because KenPom can't properly weigh the fact that we are getting little to no statistical production from our best players. If Kotsar and Lawson round into form then I would more than double that 16% chance to win. It will still be a tough game to win on the road, but if we compete then it will be very promising for our next 6 games in which we very well could go 5-1 or 6-0.
Love to hear everyone's thoughts below!
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