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Brian_Edwards
Guest
Note from Shoe: I'd like to welcome Brian Edwards back to Gamecock Central. He's written gambling columns for us - on and off - for 10 years.
Brian is a Senior Handicapper at VegasInsider.com, where he's worked since 2000 and spent a decade as Managing Editor. He's also the owner of BrianEdwardsSports.com and the host of the Games Galore podcast. You can check out his content at MajorWager.com and follow him on Twitter at @vegasbedwards.
Please feel free to chat with him, ask questions and leave comments.
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South Carolina (4-4 straight up, 4-4 against the spread) is off its open date after playing in eight games in eight weeks. The Gamecocks get three of their last four games at home, starting with Saturday night’s showdown vs. Florida, and they need a pair of victories to become bowl eligible.
As of early Thursday, most books had the Gators installed as 18 or 18.5-point road favorites with a total of 52.5 or 53. USC is anywhere from +600 to +695 (Circa Sports in Las Vegas) on the money line. UF is a 10-point favorite for first-half wagers.
Shane Beamer’s team has won three of its four home games, going 2-2 ATS. However, USC is 1-4 both SU and ATS in five SEC games. The lone spread cover for the Gamecocks came in a 40-13 loss at Georgia as a 31.5-point road underdog, while the only outright victory came against Vanderbilt (21-20) as 19-point home ‘chalk.’
We aren’t sure who is going to get the starting nod at quarterback for either team. USC’s depth chart has Zeb Noland or Jason Brown listed as the starter, while the Orlando Sentinel reported Tuesday that UF’s Anthony Richardson was in concussion protocol after leaving last week’s 34-7 loss vs. Georgia.
Florida (4-4 SU, 3-5 ATS) is 0-3 ATS with a pair of outright losses at Kentucky and at LSU in three games as a road favorite this year. The Gators haven’t tasted victory in nearly a month and the natives are restless.
Dan Mullen didn’t do himself any favors on Monday when he deflected questions about recruiting and shut down all media access to his players and assistants this week. On Wednesday during the SEC’s teleconference, he attempted to clear the air by assuring the UF fan base that his staff is recruiting non-stop and that the media took his words out of context.
Whatever the case, Mullen is safe if he wins out in the final four regular-season games. Like this week at USC, the Gators will be sizable favorites in all four games.
The questions bettors face is whether UF has mentally checked out on this lost season, or is it highly motivated to get back on track and perform for its head coach, who has seen his job security wane in recent weeks?
Although Florida took its fourth loss before the calendar hit November, it’s not as if the Gators are in complete disarray. In fact, they have produced more total offense than all eight of their opponents, including top-ranked UGA and second-ranked Alabama. However, Mullen’s team has been undone by a -7 turnover margin that ranks 13th in the SEC and No. 120 nationally out of 130 FBS schools.
That can be attributed to inexperienced QBs making mistakes. Emory Jones, who has started seven of eight games, has a 10/9 touchdown-to-interception. Richardson has five TD passes compared to five interceptions, and he coughed up a critical fumble at UF’s 11-yard line when it was only trailing UGA 3-0 late in the first half.
This is the third-lowest total Florida has seen this year. The ‘under’ is 4-1 in the Gators’ last five games to improve to 5-3 overall, but they’ve seen the ‘over’ go 2-1 in their three road assignments.
The ‘under’ is 5-3 overall for USC, cashing at a 4-0 clip in its home games.
PREDICTION: I like ‘under’ 53 and the Gators -10 in the first half. Lines for first-quarter wagers usually don’t come out until Saturday morning. If UF is -6.5 or fewer in the first quarter, I’ll have a small play on that as well. I think Florida wins a 30-13 type of game.
**Other Picks**
--Texas A&M -4 vs. Auburn: As of early Thursday afternoon, most books had the Aggies installed as 4.5-point home favorites, but BetMGM had them at -4. If your number is 4.5, I recommend buying the half-point to -4 because I consider four a key number like 3, 7, 10, 14, etc.
Since Texas A&M joined the SEC in 2012, the road team in this rivalry is 8-1 SU and 8-0-1 ATS. Auburn has won outright in all four trips to Kyle Field while compiling a 3-0-1 spread record.
However, Jimbo Fisher’s team is in great form with three consecutive wins both SU and ATS. The Aggies have had two weeks to rest up and prepare for the Tigers, while Auburn is coming off a hard-fought home win over Ole Miss.
--North Carolina St. -2.5 at FSU: I made NC St. as a seven-point favorite in this game. The Wolfpack have won five of their last six games with the lone defeat coming at Miami by one point (31-30, and that loss doesn’t look as bad after the ‘Canes went and won outright at Pitt last week).
NC St. QB Devin Leary has a 21/2 TD-INT ratio and a pair of rushing TDs. The Wolfpack is ranked sixth in the nation in scoring defense, allowing only 16.3 points per game.
FSU is 2-3 both SU and ATS in five home games, but one of the wins (and spread covers) came vs. UMass.
--UTEP +11 vs. UTSA: UTEP (6-2 SU, 6-2 ATS) improved to 3-1 ATS with two outright wins in four games as an underdog when it lost 28-25 at FAU last week as an 11.5-point underdog. Although the Miners needed a backdoor cover late in the fourth quarter, they enjoyed 18-12 and 443-280 advantages over the Owls in first down and total yards, respectively. UTEP is ranked eighth in the country in total defense and 11th versus the run, which is key going up against UTSA star RB Sincere McCormick.
Mississippi St. +5 at Arkansas: Mike Leach’s teams are 21-10 ATS in their last 31 games as road underdogs. MSU is 2-1 both SU and ATS in three road games this year, but the loss came in a 31-29 setback at Memphis when the Tigers were gifted a TD on a long punt return that shouldn’t have counted. Memphis had two players on the field wearing the same number (an automatic flag) and the Bulldogs downed the ball before the punt returner grabbed it and took off.
I made the Razorbacks two-point favorites since they’re at home, but this is a toss-up game to me in terms of who wins outright. Therefore, I’ll gladly take MSU as a ‘dog of more than three points.
**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**
--IF you can get Alabama -17 in the first half vs. LSU, I’m a fan of that play as well. The Tigers are decimated by injuries.
--DraftKings has released its Week 11 look-ahead lines. Oklahoma is a seven-point favorite at Baylor, while unbeaten Wake Forest is a 3.5-point home ‘chalk’ vs. North Carolina St. Other games include Pitt -5 vs. UNC, Michigan -2 at Penn St., Texas A&M -1 at Ole Miss, Georgia -22 at Tennessee, Miami -2 at FSU and Nevada -3.5 at San Diego St.
--Oregon St. is a 10.5-point favorite Saturday at Colorado, but the Beavers are 1-8 ATS in their nine games as road favorites since 2010. They’re 0-3 ATS in three such roles during Jonathan Smith’s four-year tenure, including outright defeats at Washington St. and California this year.
--I like the Bengals in bounce-back mode as a 2.5-point home favorite vs. Cleveland on Sunday. The Browns, who have lost three of their last four games both SU and ATS, have been embroiled in drama all week regarding the status of Odell Beckham Jr. Plus, star WR Jarvis Landry didn’t practice Wednesday and is listed as ‘questionable.’ Cincinnati was in a tough spot last week playing on the road for the third time in three weeks and off a huge rivalry win at Baltimore.
Brian is a Senior Handicapper at VegasInsider.com, where he's worked since 2000 and spent a decade as Managing Editor. He's also the owner of BrianEdwardsSports.com and the host of the Games Galore podcast. You can check out his content at MajorWager.com and follow him on Twitter at @vegasbedwards.
Please feel free to chat with him, ask questions and leave comments.
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South Carolina (4-4 straight up, 4-4 against the spread) is off its open date after playing in eight games in eight weeks. The Gamecocks get three of their last four games at home, starting with Saturday night’s showdown vs. Florida, and they need a pair of victories to become bowl eligible.
As of early Thursday, most books had the Gators installed as 18 or 18.5-point road favorites with a total of 52.5 or 53. USC is anywhere from +600 to +695 (Circa Sports in Las Vegas) on the money line. UF is a 10-point favorite for first-half wagers.
Shane Beamer’s team has won three of its four home games, going 2-2 ATS. However, USC is 1-4 both SU and ATS in five SEC games. The lone spread cover for the Gamecocks came in a 40-13 loss at Georgia as a 31.5-point road underdog, while the only outright victory came against Vanderbilt (21-20) as 19-point home ‘chalk.’
We aren’t sure who is going to get the starting nod at quarterback for either team. USC’s depth chart has Zeb Noland or Jason Brown listed as the starter, while the Orlando Sentinel reported Tuesday that UF’s Anthony Richardson was in concussion protocol after leaving last week’s 34-7 loss vs. Georgia.
Florida (4-4 SU, 3-5 ATS) is 0-3 ATS with a pair of outright losses at Kentucky and at LSU in three games as a road favorite this year. The Gators haven’t tasted victory in nearly a month and the natives are restless.
Dan Mullen didn’t do himself any favors on Monday when he deflected questions about recruiting and shut down all media access to his players and assistants this week. On Wednesday during the SEC’s teleconference, he attempted to clear the air by assuring the UF fan base that his staff is recruiting non-stop and that the media took his words out of context.
Whatever the case, Mullen is safe if he wins out in the final four regular-season games. Like this week at USC, the Gators will be sizable favorites in all four games.
The questions bettors face is whether UF has mentally checked out on this lost season, or is it highly motivated to get back on track and perform for its head coach, who has seen his job security wane in recent weeks?
Although Florida took its fourth loss before the calendar hit November, it’s not as if the Gators are in complete disarray. In fact, they have produced more total offense than all eight of their opponents, including top-ranked UGA and second-ranked Alabama. However, Mullen’s team has been undone by a -7 turnover margin that ranks 13th in the SEC and No. 120 nationally out of 130 FBS schools.
That can be attributed to inexperienced QBs making mistakes. Emory Jones, who has started seven of eight games, has a 10/9 touchdown-to-interception. Richardson has five TD passes compared to five interceptions, and he coughed up a critical fumble at UF’s 11-yard line when it was only trailing UGA 3-0 late in the first half.
This is the third-lowest total Florida has seen this year. The ‘under’ is 4-1 in the Gators’ last five games to improve to 5-3 overall, but they’ve seen the ‘over’ go 2-1 in their three road assignments.
The ‘under’ is 5-3 overall for USC, cashing at a 4-0 clip in its home games.
PREDICTION: I like ‘under’ 53 and the Gators -10 in the first half. Lines for first-quarter wagers usually don’t come out until Saturday morning. If UF is -6.5 or fewer in the first quarter, I’ll have a small play on that as well. I think Florida wins a 30-13 type of game.
**Other Picks**
--Texas A&M -4 vs. Auburn: As of early Thursday afternoon, most books had the Aggies installed as 4.5-point home favorites, but BetMGM had them at -4. If your number is 4.5, I recommend buying the half-point to -4 because I consider four a key number like 3, 7, 10, 14, etc.
Since Texas A&M joined the SEC in 2012, the road team in this rivalry is 8-1 SU and 8-0-1 ATS. Auburn has won outright in all four trips to Kyle Field while compiling a 3-0-1 spread record.
However, Jimbo Fisher’s team is in great form with three consecutive wins both SU and ATS. The Aggies have had two weeks to rest up and prepare for the Tigers, while Auburn is coming off a hard-fought home win over Ole Miss.
--North Carolina St. -2.5 at FSU: I made NC St. as a seven-point favorite in this game. The Wolfpack have won five of their last six games with the lone defeat coming at Miami by one point (31-30, and that loss doesn’t look as bad after the ‘Canes went and won outright at Pitt last week).
NC St. QB Devin Leary has a 21/2 TD-INT ratio and a pair of rushing TDs. The Wolfpack is ranked sixth in the nation in scoring defense, allowing only 16.3 points per game.
FSU is 2-3 both SU and ATS in five home games, but one of the wins (and spread covers) came vs. UMass.
--UTEP +11 vs. UTSA: UTEP (6-2 SU, 6-2 ATS) improved to 3-1 ATS with two outright wins in four games as an underdog when it lost 28-25 at FAU last week as an 11.5-point underdog. Although the Miners needed a backdoor cover late in the fourth quarter, they enjoyed 18-12 and 443-280 advantages over the Owls in first down and total yards, respectively. UTEP is ranked eighth in the country in total defense and 11th versus the run, which is key going up against UTSA star RB Sincere McCormick.
Mississippi St. +5 at Arkansas: Mike Leach’s teams are 21-10 ATS in their last 31 games as road underdogs. MSU is 2-1 both SU and ATS in three road games this year, but the loss came in a 31-29 setback at Memphis when the Tigers were gifted a TD on a long punt return that shouldn’t have counted. Memphis had two players on the field wearing the same number (an automatic flag) and the Bulldogs downed the ball before the punt returner grabbed it and took off.
I made the Razorbacks two-point favorites since they’re at home, but this is a toss-up game to me in terms of who wins outright. Therefore, I’ll gladly take MSU as a ‘dog of more than three points.
**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**
--IF you can get Alabama -17 in the first half vs. LSU, I’m a fan of that play as well. The Tigers are decimated by injuries.
--DraftKings has released its Week 11 look-ahead lines. Oklahoma is a seven-point favorite at Baylor, while unbeaten Wake Forest is a 3.5-point home ‘chalk’ vs. North Carolina St. Other games include Pitt -5 vs. UNC, Michigan -2 at Penn St., Texas A&M -1 at Ole Miss, Georgia -22 at Tennessee, Miami -2 at FSU and Nevada -3.5 at San Diego St.
--Oregon St. is a 10.5-point favorite Saturday at Colorado, but the Beavers are 1-8 ATS in their nine games as road favorites since 2010. They’re 0-3 ATS in three such roles during Jonathan Smith’s four-year tenure, including outright defeats at Washington St. and California this year.
--I like the Bengals in bounce-back mode as a 2.5-point home favorite vs. Cleveland on Sunday. The Browns, who have lost three of their last four games both SU and ATS, have been embroiled in drama all week regarding the status of Odell Beckham Jr. Plus, star WR Jarvis Landry didn’t practice Wednesday and is listed as ‘questionable.’ Cincinnati was in a tough spot last week playing on the road for the third time in three weeks and off a huge rivalry win at Baltimore.
