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Analytics Recap: A&M

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Will Helms

Guest
After Saturday’s debacle against Texas A&M, I know some of you are anxious to see some of the PFF grades. I waited an extra day because PFF likes to watch a second time and update some of the grades. Below are the grades from the starters, I’ll offer thoughts on some of the more surprising grades (One in particular that I know I’ll get questions about).

PFF Grades- Offense


Muse: 53.0
Turnetine: 53.1
Hutcherson: 60.1
Douglas: 56.1
Gwyn: 49.7
Wonnum: 50.1
Prentice: 69.6
Smith: 73.7
Legette: 39.9
Hill: 70.3
Harris: 61.5

— There are three things that stick out to me: 1. Wow, those aren’t as bad as I thought they’d be; 2. Yikes, the offensive line; 3. Collin Hill at a 70?; I’ll address all three below.

— First, the starter grades weren’t that bad. This could be any combination of things but usually (And people don’t want to hear this), it comes down to poor play calling and poor execution in key moments by a select few players.

Let’s use a couple of examples. South Carolina ran three screens on third-and-long. Two of the three gained decent yardage. Every player blocked their assignment, the throw was accurate and the receiver got positive yardage before being tackled well short of the line to gain. Did anyone monumentally screw up in a way that would severely drop their grade? No. Was it a negative play? No. Was the play successful, did it help the offense move the chains and score points? Also no.

I’ll address the other part of that when examining Collin Hill’s grade.

— In terms of overall grades, this was the “worst” game for the offensive line. Hutcherson (by .1 points) was the only player to grade out average or better. That being said, the group graded out fairly well in pass protection, putting up its best pass blocking grade this season by a fair amount. The issue in this game was the complete lack of run blocking. Only one player on the entire offense put up a run blocking grade greater than 61.2 — Adam Prentice in five snaps. All five offensive linemen had run blocking grades below 58, as South Carolina put up -11 yards before contact on Saturday.

— On Collin Hill: First, let me say that none of this is a slight on Collin Hill, whom I am on record praising numerous times. Saturday was not his best game, in my opinion. The reason for his above average grade has more to do with the poor performances of his receiving group than his great play (Again, my opinion). PFF exists to grade individuals, which I greatly appreciate. It won’t ding a player for someone else’s mistake. That being said, the downside of that is it (On rare occasions) it can lead to an artificial grade inflation due to nothing other than one player not being quite as bad as the rest in a particular game.

South Carolina had six drops (Five on passes thrown by Hill). PFF looks at that, as well as one batted pass and one ball thrown while being hit and doesn’t ding him for those passes. Immediately, that changes his 38.1 percent completion percentage into an adjusted completion percentage of 68.4, still below his season average.

Not all drops are created equally, and that’s what hurt Hill Saturday. Of the five drops, one was a sure touchdown, two others were for big gains, and two were on third down. PFF looks at that and credits him for good throws. No doubt, 14-for-21 with 220 yards and a touchdown or two looks a lot better than 8-for-21 with 66 yards.

My issue was not that Collin Hill graded out better than the rest of the offense, just that he graded out that good. The thing it does suggest is that while a quarterback change would be exciting for fans, it’s unlikely to change anything on the offensive side of the ball. Nothing is conducive to quarterback success on this offense. That being said, if Ryan Hilinski or Luke Doty start and have success, crown them the starter for the next three years because they’ll be succeeding in spite of everything else.

PFF Grades: Defense


Thomas: 59.1
Pickens: 49.9
Ellis: 49.8
Enagbare: 68.9
Jones: 49.5
Staley: 59.2
Robinson: 56.4
Foster: 46.9
Dixon: 71.0
Mukuamu: 58.3
Horn: 71.7

— Well… At least the corners were solid, am I right?

— South Carolina just doesn’t have the girth on the inside to match up with power running teams. Luckily, there aren’t many power running teams left. That being said, it wasn’t necessarily that the defensive line got blown off the ball, as the Aggies averaged less than two yards a rush before contact. That being said, the defensive line missed seven tackles in 24 opportunities, so gap integrity doesn’t matter at that point. MJ Webb (77.4) and Tonka Hemingway (72.7) each graded out well against the run.

— Jaycee Horn is still elite, so there’s that. Kellen Mond realized it’d probably be smart to just not target Horn, and for that I give him credit. Dixon and Horn combined for six tackles and just two receptions allowed for 15 yards.

— Ernest Jones looked out of sorts all game and the grades reflected that. He gave up 95 yards and a touchdown through the air, missed two tackles and seemed to be out of position far more than usual. South Carolina has a lot of lasting issues. The play of Ernest Jones is not one of those issues. The numbers show he’ll bounce back. I would not be worried about him.
 
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