W
Will Helms
Guest
After South Carolina’s upset over Auburn, we dig into some of the numbers to give a comprehensive, analytics-based review of the game.
First up, the PFF Grades:
Offense:
Muse: 70.8
Turnetine: 48.3
Hutcherson: 72.3
Douglas: 58.5
Gwyn: 61.4
Wonnum: 56.6
Smith: 68.7
Legette: 48.7
Hill: 66.6
Prentice: 69.3
Harris: 68.9
Defense:
Hemingway: 51.3
Thomas: 72.2
Ellis: 52.2
Enagbare: 50.0
Staley: 56.5
Jones: 66.9
Horn: 84.4
Roderick: 55.2
Sanders: 62.1
Dixon: 53.3
Robinson: 65.0
Notes:
— To win big games, your stars need to perform. Ernest Jones, Shi Smith, Kevin Harris and of course Jaycee Horn came to play. I’ll have more in my five things column, but Ernest Jones, Deshaun Fenwick and Keir Thomas were huge on Saturday.
— This week is a good time to talk about PFF’s weighting. In Tuesday’s Analytics point, I’ll talk about the analytics of running vs. passing. PFF weights passing heavily. For example, Jaycee Horn put up the second-worst tackling and run defense grades of the game. As a cornerback, Horn’s job is to cover the opposing receivers. If he excels at that, it doesn’t really matter if he struggled against the run. On the offensive line, numbers are usually skewed towards pass blocking (Which is far more important than run blocking).
— Adam Prentice graded out below average in run blocking (As a fullback) but graded extremely well as a receiver, which is why he ended up with a great grade.
— Bo Nix when targeting Jaycee Horn or John Dixon: 6-for-22, 81 yards (3.7 yards per attempt), one touchdown (Looked like a miscommunication), three interceptions. That’s good for a 0.0 passer rating.
— South Carolina didn’t tackle particularly well in the running game (To be expected given that Auburn’s running backs are the best in the SEC at avoiding tackles) missing nine tackles on 27 carries. That being said, South Carolina allowed just 88 yards after the catch and missed only one tackle all game in the receiving game. This forced Nix to throw the ball downfield and gave South Carolina’s defensive backs opportunities to make plays.
— Auburn’s offensive line has been one of the best pass blocking units in the SEC this season. South Carolina only got 10 pressures but five came from the blindside and rattled Nix, who was credited with allowing four of the other five pressures.
— We’ve talked a bit about Collin Hill and the South Carolina offense not stretching the field. Saturday, six of 24 passing attempts (25 percent) of Hill’s attempts were beyond 10 yards. Four of those six attempts targeted Shi Smith, who caught three for 51 yards and a touchdown. Statistically, it wasn’t Hill’s best game, but he made good decisions and took what he could get.
SP+ Numbers
SP+ actually didn’t love South Carolina’s win, mainly because the offense struggled compared to earlier this season and the defense is following the trend of the SEC this year.
Interceptions are game-changing plays, but highly volatile and not very predictive. Since South Carolina used three interceptions to beat Auburn (without a whole lot of pressure on the quarterback) SP+ didn’t love the win. Auburn’s offense was fairly explosive (Four different players had an explosive rush and five had an explosive catch) and South Carolina’s defensive number suffered for that reason.
Despite allowing just 22 points, the Gamecocks fell from 23rd to 35th in the SP+ defensive rating. South Carolina fell to 53rd in the country.
All of that being said, teams outside the top 10 typically fall once the season starts, South Carolina has fallen below 14 teams that have not played this season. The Gamecocks are still ninth in the conference but have actually gained ground on several other SEC teams.
The national rankings for SP+ look weird this year because of the varying start times among college football’s conferences and how the metric weights preseason expectations, returning production, etc.
As always, don't hesitate to ask questions!
First up, the PFF Grades:
Offense:
Muse: 70.8
Turnetine: 48.3
Hutcherson: 72.3
Douglas: 58.5
Gwyn: 61.4
Wonnum: 56.6
Smith: 68.7
Legette: 48.7
Hill: 66.6
Prentice: 69.3
Harris: 68.9
Defense:
Hemingway: 51.3
Thomas: 72.2
Ellis: 52.2
Enagbare: 50.0
Staley: 56.5
Jones: 66.9
Horn: 84.4
Roderick: 55.2
Sanders: 62.1
Dixon: 53.3
Robinson: 65.0
Notes:
— To win big games, your stars need to perform. Ernest Jones, Shi Smith, Kevin Harris and of course Jaycee Horn came to play. I’ll have more in my five things column, but Ernest Jones, Deshaun Fenwick and Keir Thomas were huge on Saturday.
— This week is a good time to talk about PFF’s weighting. In Tuesday’s Analytics point, I’ll talk about the analytics of running vs. passing. PFF weights passing heavily. For example, Jaycee Horn put up the second-worst tackling and run defense grades of the game. As a cornerback, Horn’s job is to cover the opposing receivers. If he excels at that, it doesn’t really matter if he struggled against the run. On the offensive line, numbers are usually skewed towards pass blocking (Which is far more important than run blocking).
— Adam Prentice graded out below average in run blocking (As a fullback) but graded extremely well as a receiver, which is why he ended up with a great grade.
— Bo Nix when targeting Jaycee Horn or John Dixon: 6-for-22, 81 yards (3.7 yards per attempt), one touchdown (Looked like a miscommunication), three interceptions. That’s good for a 0.0 passer rating.
— South Carolina didn’t tackle particularly well in the running game (To be expected given that Auburn’s running backs are the best in the SEC at avoiding tackles) missing nine tackles on 27 carries. That being said, South Carolina allowed just 88 yards after the catch and missed only one tackle all game in the receiving game. This forced Nix to throw the ball downfield and gave South Carolina’s defensive backs opportunities to make plays.
— Auburn’s offensive line has been one of the best pass blocking units in the SEC this season. South Carolina only got 10 pressures but five came from the blindside and rattled Nix, who was credited with allowing four of the other five pressures.
— We’ve talked a bit about Collin Hill and the South Carolina offense not stretching the field. Saturday, six of 24 passing attempts (25 percent) of Hill’s attempts were beyond 10 yards. Four of those six attempts targeted Shi Smith, who caught three for 51 yards and a touchdown. Statistically, it wasn’t Hill’s best game, but he made good decisions and took what he could get.
SP+ Numbers
SP+ actually didn’t love South Carolina’s win, mainly because the offense struggled compared to earlier this season and the defense is following the trend of the SEC this year.
Interceptions are game-changing plays, but highly volatile and not very predictive. Since South Carolina used three interceptions to beat Auburn (without a whole lot of pressure on the quarterback) SP+ didn’t love the win. Auburn’s offense was fairly explosive (Four different players had an explosive rush and five had an explosive catch) and South Carolina’s defensive number suffered for that reason.
Despite allowing just 22 points, the Gamecocks fell from 23rd to 35th in the SP+ defensive rating. South Carolina fell to 53rd in the country.
All of that being said, teams outside the top 10 typically fall once the season starts, South Carolina has fallen below 14 teams that have not played this season. The Gamecocks are still ninth in the conference but have actually gained ground on several other SEC teams.
The national rankings for SP+ look weird this year because of the varying start times among college football’s conferences and how the metric weights preseason expectations, returning production, etc.
As always, don't hesitate to ask questions!
