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Wes Mitchell
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I think we're pretty much all in agreement that much of South Carolina's success against N.C. State is going to come down to how the Gamecocks' offensive line can handle State's front seven. If Carolina can give Jake Bentley a chance, then the skill talent around him should take advantage of a questionable State secondary. If the Wolfpack defensive line takes over the game, then any edge Carolina has on the perimeter is pretty much negated.
With one of the major keys to the game that clear, the better question is what can the South Carolina coaches do to try to win that matchup? One thing that stands out to me is that N.C. State is an incredibly big team across the board. Size appears to be a recruiting priority for them, and across the board, almost the entire defense is bigger than the average at their respective position.
Will Muschamp talks a lot about keeping his defensive linemen fresh and not having them on the field for more than 8-10 snaps in a row. From a matchup perspective, I think South Carolina will need to wear the N.C. State defense down. Quick short passes to the perimeter may seem conservative in nature, but they force the defense's linemen to pursue further than the downfield passing game, and can serve to wear a defense down in time, especially when paired with a faster tempo and an outside running game too.
I'm not sure that Carolina will be able to just line up and pound the ball by going straight at the defense, but if they can wear them down a little first, then the fresh legs of their three talented backs could chip away as the game progresses. As Indiana showed in the first half against Ohio State Thursday, if you're comfortable, your receivers can make a play over defenders with the ball in the air, you can even attack down field by getting the ball out quick on fades. But as Indiana also proved in the second half, you eventually do need to run the football and get into your offense. Indiana's receivers hammered Ohio State in the first half, but it wasn't something they could replicate for an entire game.
** It's been interesting for me to hear the difference in perception about this offense from a local perspective and a conference-wide or national perspective.
I think if we -- the collective we of local media, fans, etc -- talk about all those offensive weapons enough all offseason, then it almost feels like this is an offense that's already established and returning a bunch of players. I'm as guilty as anyone, because there are a lot of weapons there. If we branch out to a conference or national perspective, there seems to be a bit more of a wait-and-see approach to what this offseason is capable of.
Like most anything, the truth probably falls somewhere in the middle, but I'd caution as whole not to judge this offense off of one game. There will still be some growing pains along the way and as we've talked about quite a bit, this isn't a particularly great matchup for the Gamecocks. Similarly, I don't think we can judge Eric Wolford's offensive line based on its performance in this one game. I think there's a chance that line looks far different this week than it does later in the season.
** N.C. State doesn't have a particularly scary offense, but at the same time, they are fully capable of putting up a lot of points if they find a rhythm. As I mentioned in my Film Prep post, they're very multiple and will give defenses a multitude of looks, shifts and motions to try and keep them from getting lined up correctly. N.C. State will run plays out of the shotgun, pistol and sometimes under center. They'll mix personnel and switch between two-tight ends and three wide receivers lined up in multiple ways. A lot of the time it's similar plays, just run from a bunch of different looks.
Quarterback Ryan Finley looks very comfortable in this offense and does a good job of getting the ball out quick with short passes. As I also previously mentioned, keep an eye on the motion man and that will probably give a good idea of their intentions on a given play.
** Any time two teams are relatively evenly matched, those games often come down to turnovers and redzone performance.
I think that especially holds true here when you consider these factors: A. It's a game 1 and those are always particularly sloppy with turnovers and misplays. B. The USC defense's MO last season was that it bent but didn't break, forces a lot of turnovers, and held strong in the redzone while the N.C. State offense was known for having to settle for field goals. C. The field goal kicking game is a question mark for both teams as USC breaks in a new kicker (be it Alex Woznick or Parker White) and N.C. State breaks in a grad transfer kicker after major struggles there last season.
** I can't sit here and honestly tell you that I have a good feeling about making a prediction on this game, but USC has had a knack for winning openers like this in the past. I'm going to go with the homer pick and say Gamecocks - 28, N.C. State - 27.
ALSO SEE: For more of my thoughts on the second as a whole, check out my 2017 season forecast here
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