W
Wes Mitchell
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** If there's one thing I will always try to do it's keep it real with y'all and I've got to be honest that I've struggled to really make sense of this game and what the expectations should be for how it will play out as there are simply so many variables and unknowns.
The Tigers enter this game struggling - really struggling with a 1-2 record and the lone win being over a Vanderbilt team that we all know is not a great barometer for judging any other team.
LSU has lost to both Missouri and Mississippi State in two close games but in games that their defense has been awful in about every sense of the word. The LSU offense has been outstanding, but that was with quarterback Myles Brennan who has played about as well as anyone could expect from a first-time starter replacing a legend. This week it's Brennan who will be replaced by true freshman T.J. Finley, who not only has never made a start but has also never played a snap at the college level.
When I put it like that, it certainly seems like South Carolina should have an edge, but if you go deeper, I don't think it's that simple. Brennan may not be there to run the offense, but this is still an LSU offense that has some elite playmakers (I'll talk about two in particular below) and a defense that despite all of their struggles, is loaded with talent on paper. Sure, the defending national champs lost almost all of their main contributors from that team, but with a week to get back to basics, simplify the scheme, and focus on themselves, I expect the Gamecocks to play a defense that is at least slightly, if not notably, improved on Saturday.
LSU faces a South Carolina team that has seemed to play better the last couple of games, but that was aided by three big turnovers in the Auburn win. While the Gamecocks get every ounce of credit for making those big plays happen against Auburn, it's not something that can be consistently counted on each game, and I still believe there's room for growth from a defense that I believe continues to give up too many chunk plays.
The South Carolina offense has been better than expected and Mike Bobo deserves loads of credit for that. But the one thing they've still lacked (and we've talked about it all year) is those big explosive plays, those same explosive plays that have been the Achilles heel of LSU's defense, so it's kind of weakness vs. weakness there.
I have little doubt that South Carolina will go into Baton Route and compete and hang in the game. We've seen that in all four games this year. But I don't have much feel for if this LSU team is as bad as its record indicates or if its defense is as bad as it's performed. From everything I've read from the LSU side, there's not a great deal of confidence in this team from their media. But I'm also not ready to claim that the Gamecocks' issues are all fixed after a couple of wins either. Stop me if you've heard this before, but I'm expecting another fourth quarter game on Saturday.
** We'll start with a quick scouting report on quarterback T.J. Finley. Finley checks in at a massive 6-foot-6, 240-pounds and that's down about 20-25 pounds from when he first arrived in Baton Rouge. Finley is a pass-first quarterback with a really big arm and confidence in that arm. He was a high three-star prospect out of high school according to Rivals, but did have a strong senior season from what I've heard. One thing we're told he's focused on since arriving at LSU is on not always relying on that big arm and in taking what the defense gives him.
As he's dropped that weight, he's also become a bit better runner, so while he's not going to ever be a run-first quarterback, he can be dangerous in spurts if he gets that big frame going downhill and the Gamecocks defenders will certainly have to wrap him up when they have chances to tackle him. Ed Orgeron reiterated on Thursday that quarterback Max Johnson will also play on Saturday and with the decision on who to start coming down to a coin flip, they'll probably go with whichever player has the hot hand. Johnson is a lefty who also has a big arm and is faster but not quite as big as Finley.
** Florida tight end Kyle Pitts was talked about all week along from the media and fanbase heading into the South Carolina-Florida game and in my opinion LSU tight end Arik Gilbert (No. 2) deserves just as much attention because in his brief time on the field (he's a true freshman) he appears to me to be just as big of a matchup problem as Pitts. They're not exactly the same player. Pitts was more of a wide receiver who grew into a tight end's frame, whereas Gilbert has been a big kid since I first saw him at one of South Carolina's camps when Gilbert was a freshman in high school. He was already a freak athlete then and he's going to be a problem for LSU's opponents for the next three years and then he'll be a first-round draft pick. I think he's that good. At 6-foot-5, 249-pounds, Gilbert is too big to treat as a wide receiver in coverage yet is athletic enough that linebackers really struggle to stay with him. The Gamecocks will have to attack him with different looks and coverages, much like they did Pitts. Keep a close eye on 2 for the Tigers.
** There may not be a better direct matchup of NFL talent in college football on Saturday than Jaycee Horn vs. Terrace Marshall Jr., the Tigers talented wide receiver target. Horn obviously got the better of last week's matchup of future NFLers and he'll have a chance to once again show what he's capable of this week in some game tape that NFL scouts will 100 percent be watching. I can tell you that Horn has never been one to read his own press clippings and he won't be affected by the extra attention that last week brought him. He's going to put his head down and go to work and I, for one, am hoping we get to see these guys across from each other a lot. Muschamp wouldn't confirm that Horn will be shadowing Marshall, who is 6-foot-3, 200-pounds with good speed, but you've got to think those two will see a lot of each other.
** How much will Jalen Brooks play on Saturday? I haven't yet been told if he will start, but based on everything I've been told, that wasn't lip service when Muschamp said he will play this week. When the word came out that Brooks was eligible, he started rotating back in with the 1s in practice and keep in mind that it took all of one practice this preseason for Brooks' new teammates to start talking about him in media settings. I think he instantly becomes the Gamecocks second-best receiver. Game plans and matchups and who from LSU is across from him (they've got some really good corners) will determine how many targets he gets this week, but I 100 percent expect you're going to see Brooks on the field early and often on Saturday.
** As Will Helms pointed out in his Analytics Preview, the Tigers have two excellent cornerbacks (even though the LSU secondary as a whole hasn't performed well), but Shi Smith isn't likely to see either of those guys a ton since LSU doesn't use their cornerbacks in the slot where Smith lines up quite a bit. I'm sure they'll see each other some, especially when Carolina is in two-wide receiver sets, but on paper, the way to attack LSU is with the slot, tight ends and running backs.
** Who will win the battle of the trenches? LSU has not been able to run the football this year with the Vanderbilt game as the only game they've found success on the ground. Now, some of that is because they throw the football more than almost anyone else in the league (except Leach and Miss. St.), but even from a yards per attempt standpoint, they haven't been great in that area.
I would imagine they'll attempt to establish it a little bit more this week with the freshman quarterback in order to take some pressure off him. If the Gamecocks are able to continue their methodical and solid but not flashy approach on offense, then ultimately this game likely comes down to whether LSU can be as successful on offense with the freshman quarterback as they have been with Brennan. In order to do that, they'll likely need to find some semblance of a ground attack.
** I don't know. LSU may be struggling but anyone expecting anything other than a dogfight on Saturday night is going to be disappointed. But it's 2020 and weird stuff continues to happen. South Carolina 32, LSU 29.
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