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Wes Mitchell
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** Most reasonable people would have looked at South Carolina's 2021 football schedule and predicted, with a relatively decent confidence level, a 2-1 start to the season, regardless of the details along the path to get there. The Gamecocks, of course, did what they were supposed to do against a severely overmatched EIU team, gutted out a close W at ECU, and then fell to Georgia in a game that played out the way most people outside of Columbia would have expected.
Now, with the Kentucky Wildcats coming to town for a 7 p.m. showdown at Williams-Brice Stadium, the Gamecocks have arrived at their first true swing game of the season.
While it's probably too early to start talking about bowl eligibility, and you'll rarely if ever see me use the phrase "must win" because it's often hyperbole, especially this early in a season and a new coach's tenure, there's no doubt that this is an important game, both in creating a positive perception among the long list of top recruits who will be in town and in continuing to build some positive momentum.
A loss isn't the end of the world and frankly after taking a really long look at Kentucky this week, there's a reason why the Wildcats are favored. This is a Kentucky program that's found solid footing with Mark Stoops at the helm, now in Year 9 of his tenure, and a South Carolina program that's still in the infancy of Beamer's build.
We're probably all guilty of just assuming that most seasons South Carolina is going to be more talented than Kentucky, because we've been conditioned to think that for years, but I'm not so sure that's the case this year and it's going to take a solid, more complete effort than the first three weeks for the Gamecocks to earn Beamer his first SEC victory.
** If you haven't read my Kentucky Prep article from earlier this week, it's got a fairly detailed look at what to expect from Kentucky, and in this space, we'll take that info and apply it to how it all comes together in terms of specific matchups with the Gamecocks.
First, I'll reiterate that this isn't your typical Kentucky team in how they're structured. The addition of new offensive coordinator Liam Coen and transfers quarterback Will Levis (7) and wide receiver Wan'dale Robinson (1) has breathed new life into a Kentucky offense that has typically in recent years been what I would call just barely good enough for their defense to help them grind out wins.
Robinson and his ability to defeat man coverage both underneath and with the deep ball gives the Wildcats a bonafide No. 1 receiver threat with the ability to force defensive coordinators to take account of where he is on any given play.
South Carolina's nickelbacks vs. Robinson is one of my key matchups of the game as Carlins Platel and David Spaulding will face their toughest test of the young season and the Gamecocks will have to have some type of answer for Robinson, who operates out of the slot on a majority of his snaps. Do you make sure a safety is always over the top of Robinson? I don't think playing two high safeties is an option because of the run threat from the QB. Maybe you even slide Cam Smith over and play him in coverage at the nickel. Just playing a lot of zone probably doesn't fix the issue as Levis has a lighting quick release and they've been good at just getting the ball out fast and taking what defenses give them.
** Kentucky right tackle Darrian Kinnard is one of the country's best offensive lineman and represents another key matchup in Darrian Kinnard vs. JJ Enagbare/Aaron Sterling/Jordan Strahan/Jordan Burch. The NFL scouts will surely be keeping a close eye on Kinnard vs. Enagbare as both are considered possible top round talents, but in reality Kinnard will be playing on the right side and the Gamecocks' ends are split pretty much down the middle as far as number of snaps lining up on the left vs. right side, so all of the Gamecocks EDGE guys will get a shot at him at some point.
Really this key matchup is representative of the greater point here, that the Gamecocks' defensive line is going to have to control the game and keep Levis and that vertical Kentucky passing game from getting going. Levis has some wheels as well and is a big, physical kid, so he can take some punishment but he's also prone to not sliding and taking on contact himself when it's not needed, which can lead to turnover opportunities.
** Switching to the offensive side of the ball for the Gamecocks, that unit looks like one that is not yet at the needed comfort level with a new offensive scheme and that's manifested itself in the form of missed assignments, penalties and trouble lining up at times.
I made the point last week that South Carolina's offensive line play could make some improvements going into that game and we maybe wouldn't even notice because Georgia's front is just that good.
But against a Kentucky defense that seems solid but not laden with NFL talent, this is the week that the offense is going to need to start showing some overall progress in terms of playing a cleaner, more solidly executed game.
That makes Marcus Satterfield vs. Kentucky defensive coordinator Brad White another of my key matchups. As I said earlier this week, for the most part, you know what you're doing to get from Kentucky's defensive scheme. They're primarily a zone team that's going to force you to dink and dunk and go the length of the field without making a mistake and then they'll pick their spots when they selectively blitz vs. your tendencies.
That approach aggravates fans as everyone likes to see aggressive, man-to-man defense, but it works for the Wildcats and it's what they recruit to in the evaluation process. It's also a particularly concerning approach from the Gamecock perspective when you consider how mistake-prone the offense has been at times and how much the Gamecocks have relied on deep explosive plays - something Kentucky's scheme is designed to limit.
The good news is that there should be plays to be made against Kentucky and they've not been particularly great (or terrible for that matter) at stopping the run and are just sort of middle of the pack in the SEC so far in that category. To reiterate: this is the week you need to see the offense start to find its indentity and show what it can hang its hat on.
** South Carolina saw the return of quarterback Luke Doty last week and, all things considered (first true road game, little to no practice time, incredible opponent), I thought Doty played great and the moment didn't look too big for him at all.
Doty has the skillset to add an extra dynamic to the Gamecocks' offense and that's why Luke Doty vs. the Kentucky zone defense is my final key matchup of the game.
Doty will need to be willing to take what the Wildcats give him while also being smart and deliberate about when to attack the more intermediate areas of that zone defense. The Gamecocks' offensive line will of course need to have better pass protection than it has vs. a Kentucky front that has struggled to consistently put pressure on the QB this year and the longer Doty has in the pocket, the longer those windows in the zone expand.
The interesting thing about the zone defense is that all eyes are on the QB, so it limits some of the opportunities for long runs from a mobile QB (because you lose that aspect of defenders turning and running with receivers) but when a QB can buy some time to throw the football, it does allow some opportunities there since the zone is forced to expand and there's only so much grass that can be covered.
** Call it a small thing, but I did find it interesting that Pro Football Focus is so down on Kentucky's special teams, ranking them as second to last in the conference with a grade of 58.7. That may not mean much at this point in the season and in talking to CatsIllustrated's Jeff Drummond, the Wildcats have been decidedly average and boring on special teams in that they haven't made big mistakes but haven't made any game-changing plays either.
But with Pete Lembo on the Gamecocks' sidelines, I'm always going to look into special teams as a possible difference maker, so it's something to at least keep an eye on. For those curious, the Gamecocks have PFF's second-highest graded special teams in the country (and highest in the SEC) with a grade of 90.7.
FINAL PREDICTION: On a neutral site, with turnovers and everything else being equal, I would give Kentucky a clear advantage in this game. The Wildcats are a program that knows what it wants to be on defense and is finding its new identity on offense with a new offensive coordinator and two key transfers in QB Will Levis and WR Wan'Dale Robinson. As much as South Carolina fans will want to assume the Gamecocks are always going to be more talented than Kentucky, this is a tough matchup for the Garnet and Black. That said, Kentucky is only 8-25 on the road under Mark Stoops and the Wildcats haven't played a true packed-house road game since 2019. I think we're going to see one of the best atmospheres we've seen in Columbia in quite some time and that the Gamecocks will need every turnover they get in eeking out a fourth quarter win. South Carolina 24, Kentucky 21.
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