Looks like the committee might be considering more than W/L finger math. Positive sign.
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CFP OR BOWL BOUND?
- Thread starter ElectricalCock89
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I'm afraid that the committee will put too much emphasis on "head-to-head". To me, that's short-sighted. You should want the best 12 teams out there that have a legitimate shot to win it all. We are in that group. I'm afraid we will be left out. I will gladly eat crow if I'm wrong. The only consolation, for me, is that will quicken the move to make it a 16-team playoff. They should have done that to begin with. No team should have a bye in the playoffs. Ridiculous.
Agree. 2 point loss is a loss but it's so close. We have the momentum factor and losses to better teams argument. LSU screwjob too but they won't consider that we got the short end of the stick.
We would be arguing H2H if the roles were reversed.
If the roles were reversed we would have probably dropped out of the top 25 after the OU game or into the 20s.
https://www.ncaa.com/news/football/article/2024-12-01/predicting-college-football-playoff-rankings-bracket-conference-championship-week
2024 College Football Playoff rankings predictions: Fifth Top 25 projections
2024 College Football Playoff rankings predictions: Fifth Top 25 projections
These predictions are as of Sunday, Dec. 1.
- Oregon (12-0) LW: 1 — Oregon will be ranked No. 1 as long as it's undefeated.
- Texas (11-1) LW: 3 — Texas won its long-awaited rivalry game with Texas A&M, adding a quality win to its resume as it moves up to No. 2
- Penn State (11-1) LW: 4 — Penn State moves up in this week's rankings after Ohio State's loss.
- Notre Dame (11-1) LW: 5 — Notre Dame escaped USC and will likely host a game in the first round of the playoff, potentially rising to the No. 5 seed when it's all said and done.
- Georgia (10-2) LW: 7 — A win is a win in the committee's eyes this week. Georgia moves up thanks to winning its close game in a week where Miami and Ohio State lost.
- Tennessee (10-2) LW: 8 — Tennessee assured its spot in the playoff with a win over Vanderbilt. The Volunteers will be in a great position to host a playoff game.
- Ohio State (10-2) LW: 2 — Ohio State will still be in the playoffs even with its second loss because of wins over Penn State and Indiana. Those wins keep the Buckeyes over a pair of one-loss teams.
- SMU (11-1) LW: 9 — SMU defeated Cal to enter the ACC championship with just one loss.
- Indiana (11-1) LW: 10 — Indiana stays behind SMU after a win over a one-win Purdue team.
- Boise State (11-1) LW: 11 — Boise State handled business against Oregon State and will rise into the top 10.
- South Carolina (9-3) LW: 15 — The order of the rankings from No. 12-14 will be the cause for plenty of debate. South Carolina beat a Clemson team ranked No. 12 last week, while other three-loss SEC teams beat unranked opponents. However, teams like Alabama and Ole Miss defeated the Gamecocks head-to-head. True as that may be, the committee already showed that head-to-head isn't the end-all factor when the Tide, Rebels, Bulldogs and Vols were all in the top 10 a few weeks ago. The Clemson win pushes the Gamecocks into the playoffs.
- Alabama (9-3) LW: 13 — Alabama will be the first team out this week at No. 12 since it's ranked higher than any Big 12 team. The Tide will need one team to falter to help it make the playoff.
- Ole Miss (9-3) LW: 14 — Ole Miss will be ranked 14th by the committee and require conference championship game blowouts to make the playoff.
- Miami (FL) (10-2) LW: 6 — Miami lost its second game of the season to Syracuse. The Hurricanes have fewer losses than teams ranked above it, but Miami hasn't defeated a currently ranked team. The loss to Syracuse knocked Miami from the ACC championship game and the playoff picture.
- Arizona State (10-2) LW: 16 — Arizona State dominated Arizona with a spot in the Big 12 championship game on the line. The Sun Devils are just one more win away from a playoff spot.
- Iowa State (10-2) LW: 18 — Iowa State won Farmeggedon, holding off Kansas State. The Cyclones can clinch a playoff spot with a win next week.
- BYU (10-2) LW: 19 — BYU finishes the regular season with 10 wins but is out of the playoff picture since it won't play in the Big 12 title game.
- Clemson (9-3) LW: 12 — Clemson's hopes of making the playoff as an at-large team died with a loss to South Carolina, but its hopes of making the playoff revived when Miami's loss sent it to the ACC Championship Game. Nonetheless, expect Clemson to land outside the top 15 this week.
- Missouri (9-3) LW: 21 — Missouri rallied past Arkansas and will move inside the top 20 this week.
- UNLV (10-2) LW: 22 — UNLV took down Nevada and will enter the top 20 ahead of a CFP elimination game in the Mountain West title game.
- Syracuse (9-3) LW: NR — At 9-3 with a win over a then-top-10 team, Syracuse will enter the rankings this week.
- Illinois (9-3) LW: 23 — Illinois defeated Northwestern and will remain ranked this week.
- Colorado (9-3) LW: 25 — Colorado moves up after a 52-0 win on Black Friday. Unfortunately, the Buffaloes saw their playoff hopes disappear last week in a loss.
- Texas A&M (8-4) LW: 20 — Texas A&M lost to Texas, but the committee will keep the Aggies ranked since Texas is a top-two team.
- Army (10-1) LW: NR — I have no idea who the committee will rank in the final spot, but I'll go with Army since the Black Knights are 10-1 and bounced back from their first loss with a win.
Is head to head short sighted?
We can look at the different factors and say which ones should be important. But we are biased.
Ask a Bama fans or an Ole miss fan, and I bet head to head is a no brainer, most important, first tie breaker.
I think it was Kiffin who said "if head to head doesn't matter, why play the games?". And I think that'll resonate.
Bama also has a tougher SOS and a win against UGA. Our higheat rated win is a clemson team that will be high teens ish.
I can say without a single shred of a doubt that if we had the head to head, it would be argued (by me included) to be the first tie breaker. Its the first tie breaker in conferences when deciding bertha in the title game, right?
That and you throw the Bama name in top? I guess I'd go with "hope for the best, expect otherwise".
Oh definitely, I would argue it. What I'm saying is that they need to take more into consideration. But, they won't. Head-to-Head will dominate their thinking.
If one team is improving as the year goes along to the point that they knock off nationally-ranked teams including on the road, whereas the other team loses to an average Florida team and struggles at home against one of the worst teams in college football (Miss. State)....all in the final 2 games of the regular season........... Or another team gets blown out by a mediocre Oklahoma team in the next-to-the-last game of the season............. Who has got the Big MO in the back half of the season: SC, Ole Miss or Alabama? Forget that. H-T-H will be the deciding factor.
I say that Head-to-Head will dominate their thinking because I have already heard that (Paul Finebaum).
Everyone is biased. Context matters.
You can build a case for us, Ole Miss or Bama.
If not for the blown call in the LSU game, there's no need for this discussion and it seems the media is well aware of this.
Kiffin knows our two best players were injured when we played them.
Bama didn't scored an offensive touchdown in their blowout loss to OU -- a team we blew out.
We're the hottest team in the SEC with the biggest winning streak.
To boil it down to "who won the head to head" earlier in the season is a bit remedial.
We'll see what happens tomorrow night. It's anyone's guess.
Head-to Head is important. And I too would argue that as well if the shoe was on the other foot. What I'm saying is that it should not necessarily take priority over how teams finish the season. And Strength of Schedule should be a big factor. I'd love to play Indiana. But I suspect they will get into the playoffs, whereas we will not. It's like Florida State last season. They were undefeated and thought they should have made the 4-team playoff until they got smacked in a bowl game by Georgia.
Luck of the draw.
Texas gets to the SEC Championship Game in Year 1 in the SEC.
They avoided playing:
- Alabama
- Tennessee
- LSU
- Ole Miss
- South Carolina
- Mizzou
They did play UGA and got beat 15 points in Austin.
If that prediction above happens to be correct, we would play Texas in the first round.
Texas gets to the SEC Championship Game in Year 1 in the SEC.
They avoided playing:
- Alabama
- Tennessee
- LSU
- Ole Miss
- South Carolina
- Mizzou
They did play UGA and got beat 15 points in Austin.
If that prediction above happens to be correct, we would play Texas in the first round.
I was not impressed with Texas in their game against Texas A&M Saturday night.
We get screwed a lot so no telling this time.
But if it were between us and Bama, I hope they would consider this...
Vandy and Okla. both spanked Bama and we rolled both of them. Bama just did beat is by 2 points. Maybe that is something they may look at. That would clearly seem to give us favor over Bama.
If it were between us and Ole Miss, I hope they would consider this...
Ole Miss lost 2 games to unranked teams. They have only played 2 ranked teams all season. They won one of those. All of our loses came to ranked teams. And we played 7 ranked teams this year and beat 4 of them.
Statistically we should be the pick. But because of history, I will not hold my breathe.
But if it were between us and Bama, I hope they would consider this...
Vandy and Okla. both spanked Bama and we rolled both of them. Bama just did beat is by 2 points. Maybe that is something they may look at. That would clearly seem to give us favor over Bama.
If it were between us and Ole Miss, I hope they would consider this...
Ole Miss lost 2 games to unranked teams. They have only played 2 ranked teams all season. They won one of those. All of our loses came to ranked teams. And we played 7 ranked teams this year and beat 4 of them.
Statistically we should be the pick. But because of history, I will not hold my breathe.
I kinda was. They did turnover the ball in the second half when it could have been 24-0 instead of 17-7. But A&M's offense scored nothing in that game at home. Texas has a defense.
I believe the committee should allocate equal weight between how a team does in the entire season, how they finish up (last 6 games) and the strength of schedule. And certainly Head-to Head, if applicable, should play a part. I believe we have a good case on our part.
For Beamer to comment after the Clemson game that he was pulling for Syracuse to beat Miami and for Clemson to go on and beat SMU, I just wonder if something has been said to Beamer about what needs to happen for SC to get a bid.
Good conversation regarding Carolina's argument to be in playoffs. JC and Morgan makes some great points. Good playoff discussion around 1:20:26. 3 hour show. Morgan is very passionate about us deserving to be in but uses multiple metrics.
Thinking he means ranked at the time the game was played which we were not.
I’ve seen this several times but I’m not getting it. If Clemson wins then they get the automatic spot but if smu doesn’t drop below #11, then that eliminates another spot. Clemson and another conference champion will be ranked above 12, which means only the top 10 get in.
If i heard right, the committee doesn't want to "punish" teams that made the conference title games. They don't want a team that qualifies for the playoffs to miss out because they played the extra game.
Meaning of SMU loses, they will not drop them far enough to miss the playoffs.
Not sure I buy it, but they've mentioned it a few times on sports shows.
Contextual thinking on display below.
===============
I keep hearing: “South Carolina lost to Alabama and Ole Miss — how could they get in the playoff over them?”
Here’s the deal: Head-to-head only matters when all else is equal. If one team has a clearly better resume, head-to-head is irrelevant.
It’s the same reason NIU doesn’t make the playoff for beating Notre Dame.
South Carolina’s resume is far and away better than Alabama’s or Ole Miss’s:
• 6-game win streak
• 4 wins over Top 25 teams
Don’t tell me head-to-head matters when:
• The committee ranked Alabama over Tennessee (despite Alabama losing to them).
• South Carolina over LSU (despite South Carolina losing to them).
The numbers don’t lie:
• Oklahoma went 2-6 in the SEC (avg. loss by 17.6 PPG).
• Vandy went 3-5 in the SEC (avg. loss by 8.5 PPG).
Alabama lost to both on the road.
South Carolina beat both on the road by 26 and 21 points.
SC’s resume:
• One bad game all year.
• Lost their QB in the 2nd half of a 3-point loss to LSU.
• Nearly won as 3-TD underdogs at Alabama.
Combined record of SC’s losses: 26-10
Combined record of Alabama’s losses: 22-14
It’s simple:
• SC is on a roll (6 straight wins).
• They’ve beaten more ranked teams.
• Their losses are better quality.
It’s down to SC vs. Bama for the final playoff spot.
The committee’s choice: brand vs. deserving.
===============
I keep hearing: “South Carolina lost to Alabama and Ole Miss — how could they get in the playoff over them?”
Here’s the deal: Head-to-head only matters when all else is equal. If one team has a clearly better resume, head-to-head is irrelevant.
It’s the same reason NIU doesn’t make the playoff for beating Notre Dame.
South Carolina’s resume is far and away better than Alabama’s or Ole Miss’s:
• 6-game win streak
• 4 wins over Top 25 teams
Don’t tell me head-to-head matters when:
• The committee ranked Alabama over Tennessee (despite Alabama losing to them).
• South Carolina over LSU (despite South Carolina losing to them).
The numbers don’t lie:
• Oklahoma went 2-6 in the SEC (avg. loss by 17.6 PPG).
• Vandy went 3-5 in the SEC (avg. loss by 8.5 PPG).
Alabama lost to both on the road.
South Carolina beat both on the road by 26 and 21 points.
SC’s resume:
• One bad game all year.
• Lost their QB in the 2nd half of a 3-point loss to LSU.
• Nearly won as 3-TD underdogs at Alabama.
Combined record of SC’s losses: 26-10
Combined record of Alabama’s losses: 22-14
It’s simple:
• SC is on a roll (6 straight wins).
• They’ve beaten more ranked teams.
• Their losses are better quality.
It’s down to SC vs. Bama for the final playoff spot.
The committee’s choice: brand vs. deserving.
Bama has an argument with their win over UGA and head to head with us. But on the flip side, the committee said they're taking injuries into consideration. I think most would agree that us missing Sellers in the second half against LSU contributed to the loss (among other things). We also didn't lose to two unranked teams.
Head to head matters, BUT SC could have easily won that game in Tuscaloosa, not a loss at home!! Remember Bama was coming off their first loss of the season (to Vandy no less) when SC had to face them AT THEIR PLACE!!
Yep. It's all about how much weight the committee places on these variables (along with any inherent biases) in terms of how they carve it up in the end. A total crap shoot.
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