C
Collyn Taylor
Guest
South Carolina (10-6, 1-3 SEC) plays at Arkansas (12-5, 2-3 SEC) at 7 p.m. on the SEC Network Tuesday night.
Scouting Arkansas
Arkansas is coming off a great 2020-21 season and got off to a 9-0 start with just two wins against top 100 teams. The Razorbacks then lost five of their next six, including three straight in league play, but are surging right now.
They drubbed Missouri by 44 points last week and then went to LSU without Eric Musselman—who will miss Tuesday’s game coming off a shoulder procedure—and upset a top 15 Tiger team.
Of their five losses, none have come against surefire tournament teams while three (Oklahoma, Mississippi State and Texas A&M) are against fringe tournament teams. Two (Hofstra and Vanderbilt) are against teams on the outside looking in right now.
The Razorbacks are predicated this season on offense, top 40 nationally, with a good defense as well. It’s a team that loves to get up and down the court (top 15 nationally and fourth best in the league).
They’re a team that doesn’t shoot the three well (just 29.7 percent on the year) but are great inside and want to get the ball in the paint and get to the free throw line. JD Notae is the player who makes things tick for the Razorbacks right now, averaging 21.3 points on 44.8 percent shooting this season and who guards him (likely James Reese) will have their hands full.
Numbers to know
48.3 and 38.6—The free throw rates when Arkansas has the ball during SEC play. South Carolina is a league-worst in opponent free throw rate, allowing far too many trips to the line compared to field goal attempts while the Razorbacks are third-best at 38.6. The Gamecocks can’t afford to hand Arkansas free points at the line with some of their foul issues this season.
33.6 and 34.1—Both teams’ offensive rebound rates, which are two of the best in the league. The Gamecocks are fourth in SEC play rebounding 33.6 percent of misses while Arkansas is third at 34.1 percent. Whichever team is better at hauling in its misses Tuesday night will have the better chance to win and get second-chance opportunities.
102.1 and 103.6—South Carolina’s defensive efficiency numbers in SEC play compared to Arkansas’s offensive number. The Gamecocks are allowing 102.1 points per 100 possessions while the Razorbacks are scoring 103.6. Both are middle of the pack (seventh) in the league despite being the strength of the team the majority of non-conference play. Whichever group plays more like they did earlier in the year (South Carolina’s defense to Arkansas’s offense) will have a better chance in this game.
Keys to victory
Move without the ball on offense—South Carolina’s offensive numbers in league play haven’t been good, ranking at or near the bottom in a lot of efficiency metrics. When the offense has clicked, it’s because guys are cutting and moving without the ball and not letting it stick. The Gamecocks are assisting on 53.7 percent of makes in four SEC games, which means when shots are going in the ball is usually getting moved around and spread out. Arkansas does a decent job forcing misses and South Carolina will need to take good shots.
Defend the paint and rebound the ball—In five SEC games, almost 77 percent of Arkansas’ points are coming from two or at the free throw line. South Carolina can’t afford to have that happen and needs to force the Razorbacks into taking bad threes. Also, if Arkansas does miss then they’ll have to not allow offensive rebounds, which Arkansas is good at hauling in; South Carolina also needs to be itself on the offensive glass as well.
Don’t get sped up—Arkansas wants to squeeze as many possessions as it can out of a game and South Carolina can’t afford to get sped up on either end, which leads to bad offense in the half court or mistakes on the defensive end. The Gamecocks are eighth in league play in adjusted tempo and can’t let Arkansas dictate the game pace.
Scouting Arkansas
Arkansas is coming off a great 2020-21 season and got off to a 9-0 start with just two wins against top 100 teams. The Razorbacks then lost five of their next six, including three straight in league play, but are surging right now.
They drubbed Missouri by 44 points last week and then went to LSU without Eric Musselman—who will miss Tuesday’s game coming off a shoulder procedure—and upset a top 15 Tiger team.
Of their five losses, none have come against surefire tournament teams while three (Oklahoma, Mississippi State and Texas A&M) are against fringe tournament teams. Two (Hofstra and Vanderbilt) are against teams on the outside looking in right now.
The Razorbacks are predicated this season on offense, top 40 nationally, with a good defense as well. It’s a team that loves to get up and down the court (top 15 nationally and fourth best in the league).
They’re a team that doesn’t shoot the three well (just 29.7 percent on the year) but are great inside and want to get the ball in the paint and get to the free throw line. JD Notae is the player who makes things tick for the Razorbacks right now, averaging 21.3 points on 44.8 percent shooting this season and who guards him (likely James Reese) will have their hands full.
Numbers to know
48.3 and 38.6—The free throw rates when Arkansas has the ball during SEC play. South Carolina is a league-worst in opponent free throw rate, allowing far too many trips to the line compared to field goal attempts while the Razorbacks are third-best at 38.6. The Gamecocks can’t afford to hand Arkansas free points at the line with some of their foul issues this season.
33.6 and 34.1—Both teams’ offensive rebound rates, which are two of the best in the league. The Gamecocks are fourth in SEC play rebounding 33.6 percent of misses while Arkansas is third at 34.1 percent. Whichever team is better at hauling in its misses Tuesday night will have the better chance to win and get second-chance opportunities.
102.1 and 103.6—South Carolina’s defensive efficiency numbers in SEC play compared to Arkansas’s offensive number. The Gamecocks are allowing 102.1 points per 100 possessions while the Razorbacks are scoring 103.6. Both are middle of the pack (seventh) in the league despite being the strength of the team the majority of non-conference play. Whichever group plays more like they did earlier in the year (South Carolina’s defense to Arkansas’s offense) will have a better chance in this game.
Keys to victory
Move without the ball on offense—South Carolina’s offensive numbers in league play haven’t been good, ranking at or near the bottom in a lot of efficiency metrics. When the offense has clicked, it’s because guys are cutting and moving without the ball and not letting it stick. The Gamecocks are assisting on 53.7 percent of makes in four SEC games, which means when shots are going in the ball is usually getting moved around and spread out. Arkansas does a decent job forcing misses and South Carolina will need to take good shots.
Defend the paint and rebound the ball—In five SEC games, almost 77 percent of Arkansas’ points are coming from two or at the free throw line. South Carolina can’t afford to have that happen and needs to force the Razorbacks into taking bad threes. Also, if Arkansas does miss then they’ll have to not allow offensive rebounds, which Arkansas is good at hauling in; South Carolina also needs to be itself on the offensive glass as well.
Don’t get sped up—Arkansas wants to squeeze as many possessions as it can out of a game and South Carolina can’t afford to get sped up on either end, which leads to bad offense in the half court or mistakes on the defensive end. The Gamecocks are eighth in league play in adjusted tempo and can’t let Arkansas dictate the game pace.
