B
Brian_Edwards
Guest
Note from Shoe: I'd like to welcome Brian Edwards back to Gamecock Central. He's written gambling columns for us - on and off - for 10 years.
Brian is a Senior Handicapper at VegasInsider.com, where he's worked since 2000 and spent a decade as Managing Editor. He's also the owner of BrianEdwardsSports.com and the host of the Games Galore podcast. You can check out his content at MajorWager.com and follow him on Twitter at @vegasbedwards.
Please feel free to chat with him, ask questions and leave comments.
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South Carolina (2-1 straight up, 3-0 against the spread) remained perfect versus the number in last week’s 40-13 loss at Georgia as a 31.5-point road underdog. The 53 combined points went ‘over’ 47.5 points when Luke Doty found Josh Vann for a 36-yard scoring strike with 10:55 remaining.
The ‘under’ cashed in the first two USC games, so it takes a 2-1 record into Saturday’s showdown vs. Kentucky at Williams-Brice Stadium. Vann is en route to a breakout campaign after hauling in three receptions for 128 yards and one TD. He has 10 catches for a team-best 271 yards and three TDs through three games.
Kentucky opened as a 5.5-point road favorite but as of Thursday afternoon, most spots had the Wildcats listed as five-point ‘chalk.’ DraftKings and FanDuel were at -4.5, while most shops had the total at 48 or 48.5 points. The Gamecocks were +170 or +175 on the money line.
USC is mired in a 3-9 ATS slump in its last 12 games as a home underdog. UK has only been a road favorite five times during Mark Stoops’s tenure, compiling a 2-3 spread record. The ‘Cats have lost eight of 10 all-time games in Columbia, but they won in 2015 and ’17 before a 24-7 loss in ’19 as three-point underdogs.
When these teams met at Kroger Field in Lexington last year, UK won 41-18 as an 11.5-point home favorite. The ‘Cats have won five of the last six head-to-head encounters both SU and ATS.
Kentucky (3-0 SU, 2-1 ATS) failed to cover the spread in last week’s 28-23 win over UT-Chattanooga as a 33-point home favorite. The 51 combined points jumped ‘over’ the 48-point total when the Mocs scored a TD with 1:20 remaining. The ‘over’ is 3-0 for the ‘Cats with their combined scores equaling 55, 63 and 51 combined points.
UK’s offense is more potent this year thanks to the transfer additions of QB Will Levis (Penn St.) and WR Wan’Dale Robinson (Nebraska), who has 18 receptions for 337 yards and two TDs. Robinson also has 73 rushing yards on three attempts.
Levis went into last week with a 5/1 touchdown-to-interception ratio, but both interceptions had come after his throws hit his WRs in the hands, only to deflect into the arms of defenders. However, Levis committed three legit turnovers against last week’s FCS opponent. He’s completed 64.6 percent of his passes for 800 yards with a 7/4 TD-INT ratio.
PREDICTION: This game is a pass for me in terms of my “official picks” on VegasInsider, but ‘Shoe’ doesn’t hand me a paycheck to sit on the sidelines for USC games. I’m going to go ‘over’ 48 points because UK struggled to stop Missouri’s ground attack, and I’m thinking the Gamecocks are going to be successful running the rock. If USC can force Levis into a pair of turnovers, I like its chances of pulling the moderate upset. I think Robinson is going to be tough to handle, though, and will call for UK to win a 30-27 decision.
OTHER PICKS:
Western Michigan -3 vs. San Jose St.: This is a brutal travel situation for the Spartans, who won 17-13 at Hawaii late last Saturday night. Now they head East and face the Broncos at 2:00 p.m. Eastern, which is 11:00 a.m. for their body clocks. Western Michigan is off a 44-41 win at Pitt to improve to 2-1 both SU and ATS. WMU quarterback Kaleb Eleby had an 18/2 TD-INT ratio last season, and he’s thrown five TDs without an interception this year. Although WMU head coach Tim Lester isn’t available after testing positive for COVID-19 on Monday, I still like the Broncos laying the short number.
Army -8.5 vs. Miami (OH.): Army is third in the nation in rushing yards and No. 13 in run defense. The Black Knights are 3-0 with a pair of blowout victories at Georgia St. (43-10) and vs. UConn (52-21), and they held off Western Kentucky, 38-35. I made Army a 17-point favorite. Let’s go with the home team laying single digits.
Army-Miami (OH.) ‘OVER’ 48.5 points: The ‘over’ is 3-0 for Army with its combined scores getting to 53, 73 and 73 points. The Black Knights are eighth in the nation in scoring (44.3 points per game) and their combined scores are averaging 66.3 PPG. The ‘over’ is 2-1 for the RedHawks with their combined scores equaling 49, 57 and 63 points. Therefore, all six games involving these two teams have eclipsed 48.5 points. Works for me!
Western Kentucky +9.5 vs. Indiana: Buy the half-point to the key number of 10 just in case. This is a spot I identified back in July as setting up beautifully for the Hilltoppers, who have had two weeks to prepare for IU. The Hoosiers are off a big home game vs. Cincinnati and have a huge road assignment on deck at Penn St. WKU QB Bailey Zappe, who transferred in along with his offensive coordinator and three of his favorite WRs from Houston Baptist, has thrown for 859 yards with a 10/2 TD-INT ratio in only two games. Don’t be surprised if this is an outright upset over the Hoosiers, who are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games as road favorites.
Arkansas +5 vs. Texas A&M: The Aggies have won all nine games over Arkansas since entering the SEC in 2012, but the Razorbacks have found all sorts of ways to lose this rivalry game. Arkansas has covered the spread in the last three meetings, and five of the last seven encounters have been one-possession games. Jimbo Fisher’s team won 10-7 at Colorado two weeks ago, but Minnesota went into Boulder last week and thumped the Buffaloes, 30-0. Sam Pittman’s team is 3-0 both SU and ATS with wins by margins of 21, 19 and 35 points over Rice, Texas and Ga. Southern, respectively. In KJ Jefferson’s four starts at QB since a 50-48 loss at Missouri last year, the Hogs are averaging 42.8 PPG. I smell an upset brewing at Jerry World.
West Virginia +17 at Oklahoma: WVU is 3-0 ATS with a pair of outright wins in its last three games as a double-digit underdog. The Mountaineers are off a solid home win over Va. Tech, and their season-opening defeat at Maryland (30-24) came when they were -4 in turnover margin. Despite being favored by 53.5 combined points in home games vs. Tulane and Nebraska, the Sooners had to hold off both the Green Wave (45-40) and the Cornhuskers (23-16) in the final minute of play. (And Tulane just got smoked 61-21 at Ole Miss last week.)
Florida -10.5 or -11 in the first half vs. Tennessee: The Gators covered for first-half bets vs. FAU (-13.5) and at USF (-17.5), but the Owls and Bulls posted backdoor covers with late fourth-quarter scores to cover for the game. I'm told Joe Milton is going to be back starting at QB for the Vols, and I think that's a mistake. UF will be up by at least 14 at the half.
NFL Extra: Arizona -7 at Jacksonville: I made the Cardinals -12. The Jags are horrible and their head coach is the worst in the league. Arizona wins by at least two TDs.
Good luck to us! Fire away with any questions and I’ll jump in the forum throughout the day Friday.
Brian is a Senior Handicapper at VegasInsider.com, where he's worked since 2000 and spent a decade as Managing Editor. He's also the owner of BrianEdwardsSports.com and the host of the Games Galore podcast. You can check out his content at MajorWager.com and follow him on Twitter at @vegasbedwards.
Please feel free to chat with him, ask questions and leave comments.
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South Carolina (2-1 straight up, 3-0 against the spread) remained perfect versus the number in last week’s 40-13 loss at Georgia as a 31.5-point road underdog. The 53 combined points went ‘over’ 47.5 points when Luke Doty found Josh Vann for a 36-yard scoring strike with 10:55 remaining.
The ‘under’ cashed in the first two USC games, so it takes a 2-1 record into Saturday’s showdown vs. Kentucky at Williams-Brice Stadium. Vann is en route to a breakout campaign after hauling in three receptions for 128 yards and one TD. He has 10 catches for a team-best 271 yards and three TDs through three games.
Kentucky opened as a 5.5-point road favorite but as of Thursday afternoon, most spots had the Wildcats listed as five-point ‘chalk.’ DraftKings and FanDuel were at -4.5, while most shops had the total at 48 or 48.5 points. The Gamecocks were +170 or +175 on the money line.
USC is mired in a 3-9 ATS slump in its last 12 games as a home underdog. UK has only been a road favorite five times during Mark Stoops’s tenure, compiling a 2-3 spread record. The ‘Cats have lost eight of 10 all-time games in Columbia, but they won in 2015 and ’17 before a 24-7 loss in ’19 as three-point underdogs.
When these teams met at Kroger Field in Lexington last year, UK won 41-18 as an 11.5-point home favorite. The ‘Cats have won five of the last six head-to-head encounters both SU and ATS.
Kentucky (3-0 SU, 2-1 ATS) failed to cover the spread in last week’s 28-23 win over UT-Chattanooga as a 33-point home favorite. The 51 combined points jumped ‘over’ the 48-point total when the Mocs scored a TD with 1:20 remaining. The ‘over’ is 3-0 for the ‘Cats with their combined scores equaling 55, 63 and 51 combined points.
UK’s offense is more potent this year thanks to the transfer additions of QB Will Levis (Penn St.) and WR Wan’Dale Robinson (Nebraska), who has 18 receptions for 337 yards and two TDs. Robinson also has 73 rushing yards on three attempts.
Levis went into last week with a 5/1 touchdown-to-interception ratio, but both interceptions had come after his throws hit his WRs in the hands, only to deflect into the arms of defenders. However, Levis committed three legit turnovers against last week’s FCS opponent. He’s completed 64.6 percent of his passes for 800 yards with a 7/4 TD-INT ratio.
PREDICTION: This game is a pass for me in terms of my “official picks” on VegasInsider, but ‘Shoe’ doesn’t hand me a paycheck to sit on the sidelines for USC games. I’m going to go ‘over’ 48 points because UK struggled to stop Missouri’s ground attack, and I’m thinking the Gamecocks are going to be successful running the rock. If USC can force Levis into a pair of turnovers, I like its chances of pulling the moderate upset. I think Robinson is going to be tough to handle, though, and will call for UK to win a 30-27 decision.
OTHER PICKS:
Western Michigan -3 vs. San Jose St.: This is a brutal travel situation for the Spartans, who won 17-13 at Hawaii late last Saturday night. Now they head East and face the Broncos at 2:00 p.m. Eastern, which is 11:00 a.m. for their body clocks. Western Michigan is off a 44-41 win at Pitt to improve to 2-1 both SU and ATS. WMU quarterback Kaleb Eleby had an 18/2 TD-INT ratio last season, and he’s thrown five TDs without an interception this year. Although WMU head coach Tim Lester isn’t available after testing positive for COVID-19 on Monday, I still like the Broncos laying the short number.
Army -8.5 vs. Miami (OH.): Army is third in the nation in rushing yards and No. 13 in run defense. The Black Knights are 3-0 with a pair of blowout victories at Georgia St. (43-10) and vs. UConn (52-21), and they held off Western Kentucky, 38-35. I made Army a 17-point favorite. Let’s go with the home team laying single digits.
Army-Miami (OH.) ‘OVER’ 48.5 points: The ‘over’ is 3-0 for Army with its combined scores getting to 53, 73 and 73 points. The Black Knights are eighth in the nation in scoring (44.3 points per game) and their combined scores are averaging 66.3 PPG. The ‘over’ is 2-1 for the RedHawks with their combined scores equaling 49, 57 and 63 points. Therefore, all six games involving these two teams have eclipsed 48.5 points. Works for me!
Western Kentucky +9.5 vs. Indiana: Buy the half-point to the key number of 10 just in case. This is a spot I identified back in July as setting up beautifully for the Hilltoppers, who have had two weeks to prepare for IU. The Hoosiers are off a big home game vs. Cincinnati and have a huge road assignment on deck at Penn St. WKU QB Bailey Zappe, who transferred in along with his offensive coordinator and three of his favorite WRs from Houston Baptist, has thrown for 859 yards with a 10/2 TD-INT ratio in only two games. Don’t be surprised if this is an outright upset over the Hoosiers, who are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games as road favorites.
Arkansas +5 vs. Texas A&M: The Aggies have won all nine games over Arkansas since entering the SEC in 2012, but the Razorbacks have found all sorts of ways to lose this rivalry game. Arkansas has covered the spread in the last three meetings, and five of the last seven encounters have been one-possession games. Jimbo Fisher’s team won 10-7 at Colorado two weeks ago, but Minnesota went into Boulder last week and thumped the Buffaloes, 30-0. Sam Pittman’s team is 3-0 both SU and ATS with wins by margins of 21, 19 and 35 points over Rice, Texas and Ga. Southern, respectively. In KJ Jefferson’s four starts at QB since a 50-48 loss at Missouri last year, the Hogs are averaging 42.8 PPG. I smell an upset brewing at Jerry World.
West Virginia +17 at Oklahoma: WVU is 3-0 ATS with a pair of outright wins in its last three games as a double-digit underdog. The Mountaineers are off a solid home win over Va. Tech, and their season-opening defeat at Maryland (30-24) came when they were -4 in turnover margin. Despite being favored by 53.5 combined points in home games vs. Tulane and Nebraska, the Sooners had to hold off both the Green Wave (45-40) and the Cornhuskers (23-16) in the final minute of play. (And Tulane just got smoked 61-21 at Ole Miss last week.)
Florida -10.5 or -11 in the first half vs. Tennessee: The Gators covered for first-half bets vs. FAU (-13.5) and at USF (-17.5), but the Owls and Bulls posted backdoor covers with late fourth-quarter scores to cover for the game. I'm told Joe Milton is going to be back starting at QB for the Vols, and I think that's a mistake. UF will be up by at least 14 at the half.
NFL Extra: Arizona -7 at Jacksonville: I made the Cardinals -12. The Jags are horrible and their head coach is the worst in the league. Arizona wins by at least two TDs.
Good luck to us! Fire away with any questions and I’ll jump in the forum throughout the day Friday.
