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Brian_Edwards
Guest
Note from Shoe: I'd like to welcome Brian Edwards back to Gamecock Central. He's written gambling columns for us - on and off - for 10 years.
Brian is a Senior Handicapper at VegasInsider.com, where he's worked since 2000 and spent a decade as Managing Editor. He's also the owner of BrianEdwardsSports.com and the host of the Games Galore podcast. You can check out his content at MajorWager.com and follow him on Twitter at @vegasbedwards.
Please feel free to chat with him, ask questions and leave comments.
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South Carolina (5-5 straight up, 5-5 against the spread) still needs one win to become bowl eligible after last week’s 31-28 loss at Missouri in a pick ‘em affair. The 59 combined points inched ‘over’ the 56.5-point total.
As of Thursday morning, most books had Auburn (6-4 SU, 5-5 ATS) installed as a 7.5-point road favorite for Saturday night’s game at Williams-Brice Stadium. The total was 44.5 points and the Gamecocks were in the +230 to +260 range on the money line.
For first-half wagers, the Tigers were listed as four-point favorites with a total of 23.
Auburn will be looking to avenge a 30-22 loss at South Carolina as a three-point road favorite last season. The 52 combined points slithered ‘under’ the 53.5-point total.
USC cornerback Jaycee Horn was the catalyst for the Gamecocks, intercepting two passes (for 34 return yards) that set up short touchdown drives and tipping another ball that resulted in Bo Nix’s third interception of the day. Horn’s first pick on the opening play of the second quarter completely turned the game when Auburn was on the move with a 9-0 lead.
USC RB Kevin Harris ran for 83 yards and two TDs on 25 workmanlike carries, but it was the Gamecocks’ defense that was the key to victory. DE Keir Thomas, who has 4.5 sacks this season, had two sacks against the Tigers last year.
Auburn RB Tank Bigsby was effective, producing 111 rushing yards and one TD on 16 carries. He just didn’t get enough touches, although that’ll probably change this time around on Saturday night
AU is 2-2 both SU and ATS in four road assignments, losing at Penn St. (28-20) and at Texas A&M (20-3). The Tigers allowed a 28-3 lead late in the second quarter to get away last Saturday, as Mississippi St. scored 40 unanswered points and produced the biggest comeback in program history in a 43-34 win as a five-point road underdog.
Even worse for first-year AU head coach Bryan Harsin, Nix was lost for the season with a broken ankle. Nix had completed 61.0 percent of his passes for 2,294 yards with an 11/3 touchdown-to-interception ratio. He also had 158 rushing yards and four TDs.
Auburn will turn to second-year freshman QB TJ Finley, a transfer from LSU who made his first career start against the Gamecocks last year in Baton Rouge. On that night in Redstick, Finley completed 17-of-21 passes for 265 yards and two TDs with one interception. He also had 24 rushing yards and one TD on eight attempts.
Finley has appeared in six games for Auburn. He has connected on 17-of-33 throws (51.5%) for 275 yards and two TDs without an interception. Finley has six rushing yards and one TD on five carries.
With Auburn trailing Georgia St. 24-12 at Jordan-Hare Stadium in Week 4, Harsin benched Nix in favor of Finley. He responded by completing 9-of-16 passes for 97 yards and one TD without an interception. Finley also contributed 15 rushing yards on three attempts.
With Auburn trailing 24-19 on a fourth-and-nine play with 45 seconds left, Ga. St. brought a blitz and Finley appeared to be in major trouble. However, he somehow eluded an oncoming defender before scrambling to his right and finding Shedrick Jackson for a 10-yard scoring strike. The Tigers then got a pick-six from safety Smoke Monday and won a 34-24 decision.
USC is 4-1 SU and 3-2 ATS in five home games this year, with its lone defeat coming against Kentucky (16-10). This is the Gamecocks’ third home underdog situation. They failed to cover as 4.5-point ‘dogs vs. UK, but they won outright in blowout fashion (40-17) vs. Florida as 20.5-point puppies two weeks ago.
USC has seen the ‘over’ hit in three consecutive games and four of its last five. Totals have been an overall wash (5-5) for the Gamecocks, but the ‘under’ is 4-1 in their five home outings.
Likewise, totals have been a wash for Auburn overall (5-5), but the ‘under’ is 3-1 in its four road assignments.
PREDICTION: It’s not one of my top picks of the week, but I think the play is South Carolina +7.5.
**OTHER PICKS**
Boston College -2 vs. FSU: If BC -125 on the money line is an option, you might want to go that route. With star QB Phil Jurkovec back in the lineup, Boston College (6-4 SU, 6-4 ATS) has won back-to-back games by double-digit margins vs. Va. Tech (17-3) and at Ga. Tech (41-30). In last week’s win over the Yellow Jackets, Jurkovec completed 13-of-20 passes for 310 yards and two TDs without an interception. He also ran for 71 yards and three TDs on eight attempts. The Eagles are 3-1 both SU and ATS in four home games, and they’re 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS in Jurkovec’s four starts.
BC catches FSU in a vintage sandwich spot. The Seminoles are coming off an emotional comeback win over arch-rival Miami, and they have their most bitter rival (Florida) on deck. Plus, they head up North and into the cold weather. FSU is 1-2 both SU and ATS in three road assignments.
Missouri +8.5 vs. Florida: I also like Missouri (5-5 SU, 2-8 ATS) on the money line for a +260 payout. Florida is 1-4 both SU and ATS in its last five games, with the lone win and spread cover coming in a home game vs. Vanderbilt. UF’s defense has given up 49, 34, 40 and 52 points in the last four games. Samford, which came to Gainesville last week with a 4-5 record against FCS foes, scored 42 points in the first half at UF. The Gators had never allowed that many points in a half to any opponent in program history.
LSU is ranked 13th in the SEC in rushing yards, but it gashed UF for 321 yards on the ground. USC is 11th in the SEC in rushing, but it produced 284 yards vs. UF. Now the Gators face Missouri RB Tyler Badie, who is the SEC’s leading rusher with 1,239 yards, 12 TDs and a 6.2 yards-per-carry average. He’s going to have a monster game and lead the Tigers into the win column.
Minnesota -7 at Indiana: The Hoosiers are 2-8 both SU and ATS overall. They’re 1-4 both SU and ATS in five home games, with the lone outright win and spread cover coming against an FCS foe, Idaho. Minnesota is “officially” 3-1 both SU and ATS in four road games this year. However, if you bet the Gophers at some point between Monday and early Friday last week, you cashed a ticket like I did with them as 5.5-point underdogs before the line moved down to four in their 27-22 loss at Iowa.
Brian is a Senior Handicapper at VegasInsider.com, where he's worked since 2000 and spent a decade as Managing Editor. He's also the owner of BrianEdwardsSports.com and the host of the Games Galore podcast. You can check out his content at MajorWager.com and follow him on Twitter at @vegasbedwards.
Please feel free to chat with him, ask questions and leave comments.
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South Carolina (5-5 straight up, 5-5 against the spread) still needs one win to become bowl eligible after last week’s 31-28 loss at Missouri in a pick ‘em affair. The 59 combined points inched ‘over’ the 56.5-point total.
As of Thursday morning, most books had Auburn (6-4 SU, 5-5 ATS) installed as a 7.5-point road favorite for Saturday night’s game at Williams-Brice Stadium. The total was 44.5 points and the Gamecocks were in the +230 to +260 range on the money line.
For first-half wagers, the Tigers were listed as four-point favorites with a total of 23.
Auburn will be looking to avenge a 30-22 loss at South Carolina as a three-point road favorite last season. The 52 combined points slithered ‘under’ the 53.5-point total.
USC cornerback Jaycee Horn was the catalyst for the Gamecocks, intercepting two passes (for 34 return yards) that set up short touchdown drives and tipping another ball that resulted in Bo Nix’s third interception of the day. Horn’s first pick on the opening play of the second quarter completely turned the game when Auburn was on the move with a 9-0 lead.
USC RB Kevin Harris ran for 83 yards and two TDs on 25 workmanlike carries, but it was the Gamecocks’ defense that was the key to victory. DE Keir Thomas, who has 4.5 sacks this season, had two sacks against the Tigers last year.
Auburn RB Tank Bigsby was effective, producing 111 rushing yards and one TD on 16 carries. He just didn’t get enough touches, although that’ll probably change this time around on Saturday night
AU is 2-2 both SU and ATS in four road assignments, losing at Penn St. (28-20) and at Texas A&M (20-3). The Tigers allowed a 28-3 lead late in the second quarter to get away last Saturday, as Mississippi St. scored 40 unanswered points and produced the biggest comeback in program history in a 43-34 win as a five-point road underdog.
Even worse for first-year AU head coach Bryan Harsin, Nix was lost for the season with a broken ankle. Nix had completed 61.0 percent of his passes for 2,294 yards with an 11/3 touchdown-to-interception ratio. He also had 158 rushing yards and four TDs.
Auburn will turn to second-year freshman QB TJ Finley, a transfer from LSU who made his first career start against the Gamecocks last year in Baton Rouge. On that night in Redstick, Finley completed 17-of-21 passes for 265 yards and two TDs with one interception. He also had 24 rushing yards and one TD on eight attempts.
Finley has appeared in six games for Auburn. He has connected on 17-of-33 throws (51.5%) for 275 yards and two TDs without an interception. Finley has six rushing yards and one TD on five carries.
With Auburn trailing Georgia St. 24-12 at Jordan-Hare Stadium in Week 4, Harsin benched Nix in favor of Finley. He responded by completing 9-of-16 passes for 97 yards and one TD without an interception. Finley also contributed 15 rushing yards on three attempts.
With Auburn trailing 24-19 on a fourth-and-nine play with 45 seconds left, Ga. St. brought a blitz and Finley appeared to be in major trouble. However, he somehow eluded an oncoming defender before scrambling to his right and finding Shedrick Jackson for a 10-yard scoring strike. The Tigers then got a pick-six from safety Smoke Monday and won a 34-24 decision.
USC is 4-1 SU and 3-2 ATS in five home games this year, with its lone defeat coming against Kentucky (16-10). This is the Gamecocks’ third home underdog situation. They failed to cover as 4.5-point ‘dogs vs. UK, but they won outright in blowout fashion (40-17) vs. Florida as 20.5-point puppies two weeks ago.
USC has seen the ‘over’ hit in three consecutive games and four of its last five. Totals have been an overall wash (5-5) for the Gamecocks, but the ‘under’ is 4-1 in their five home outings.
Likewise, totals have been a wash for Auburn overall (5-5), but the ‘under’ is 3-1 in its four road assignments.
PREDICTION: It’s not one of my top picks of the week, but I think the play is South Carolina +7.5.
**OTHER PICKS**
Boston College -2 vs. FSU: If BC -125 on the money line is an option, you might want to go that route. With star QB Phil Jurkovec back in the lineup, Boston College (6-4 SU, 6-4 ATS) has won back-to-back games by double-digit margins vs. Va. Tech (17-3) and at Ga. Tech (41-30). In last week’s win over the Yellow Jackets, Jurkovec completed 13-of-20 passes for 310 yards and two TDs without an interception. He also ran for 71 yards and three TDs on eight attempts. The Eagles are 3-1 both SU and ATS in four home games, and they’re 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS in Jurkovec’s four starts.
BC catches FSU in a vintage sandwich spot. The Seminoles are coming off an emotional comeback win over arch-rival Miami, and they have their most bitter rival (Florida) on deck. Plus, they head up North and into the cold weather. FSU is 1-2 both SU and ATS in three road assignments.
Missouri +8.5 vs. Florida: I also like Missouri (5-5 SU, 2-8 ATS) on the money line for a +260 payout. Florida is 1-4 both SU and ATS in its last five games, with the lone win and spread cover coming in a home game vs. Vanderbilt. UF’s defense has given up 49, 34, 40 and 52 points in the last four games. Samford, which came to Gainesville last week with a 4-5 record against FCS foes, scored 42 points in the first half at UF. The Gators had never allowed that many points in a half to any opponent in program history.
LSU is ranked 13th in the SEC in rushing yards, but it gashed UF for 321 yards on the ground. USC is 11th in the SEC in rushing, but it produced 284 yards vs. UF. Now the Gators face Missouri RB Tyler Badie, who is the SEC’s leading rusher with 1,239 yards, 12 TDs and a 6.2 yards-per-carry average. He’s going to have a monster game and lead the Tigers into the win column.
Minnesota -7 at Indiana: The Hoosiers are 2-8 both SU and ATS overall. They’re 1-4 both SU and ATS in five home games, with the lone outright win and spread cover coming against an FCS foe, Idaho. Minnesota is “officially” 3-1 both SU and ATS in four road games this year. However, if you bet the Gophers at some point between Monday and early Friday last week, you cashed a ticket like I did with them as 5.5-point underdogs before the line moved down to four in their 27-22 loss at Iowa.
