No one is arguing we are happy that we're 2-6. My point was made in the longer post above.
Kansas beat Oklahoma
- Thread starter bayrooster
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No one is arguing we are happy that we're 2-6. My point was made in the longer post above.
FSU has deep pockets. They took Bell and many other players from P5 schools. Almost overnight - they are now in playoff position. They haven't been in contention in close to a decade. It wasn't the coaching.
No one is saying coaching doesn't make an impact. But what you're asking from our coach is to beat the teams with better players....even though they've got their own coach who is considered to be better than ours by the team who can pay them more.
You can't say that when we only got Harbor because we bid the most.
Yes, and wouldn't I have been right?
What about Harbor? He's one player. Teams like A&M bought their entire team.
No - You wouldn't be right. Why in the world would we fire a coach who went 8-5 last year and beat two teams in the Top 10 including our rival for the first time in 8 years?
Please find a coach who consistently beats teams with better players in this era.
Beamer did it last year. It's not happening this year.
Because anyone with a brain saw the cliff we were about to run off and how those last wins were flukes.
Well now we know we may have stolen signs that helped us win.
Crazy you want to base his entire tenure on two games and ignore the other 32 games.
Jamey Chadwell for one. Unless you’re gonna say Charleston Southern out recruits Appalachian State and recruits basically even with FCS super dynasty North Dakota State? Or say Coastal Carolina, barely removed from FCS, outrecruits BYU and Kansas?
Or at Liberty, who has recruited near dead last in FBS the last few years, being 8-0 and #1 in Conference USA vs teams with better recruiting rankings.
Theres a reason some of us beat the drum so hard to hire that guy who was crushing it at D2, FCS and FBS in our own state
BUT aside from him, Missouris coach, who was also the HC at App State when they beat us. The Kansas coach. Basically any coach at App State or Boise the last 25 years. The coach at Air Force right now. Or Army/Navy many years. Pat Fitzgerald and Kirk Ferentz.
Theres actually quite a few coaches who consistently beat more “talented” opponents
You picked a national title contender to compare us to. I would not do that.
I've said before, pre-NIL and during NIL, we can't compare ourselves to the elite. But we can compare ourselves to the middle of the pack SEC teams.
There's far more variance in that level of competition as you don't have a money/resources bottleneck.
Facing SEC competition week-in and out leaves little room for play. Chadwell would have been the same crapshoot as Beamer and would have dealt with the same issues.
Missouri was 6-7 last year. Their fans were probably looking at Beamer the same way when we were beating Top 10 teams and 8-5.
If they sustain this type of momentum for a few seasons, that's a different discussion. However, it Drinkwitz does do that, he'll be picked up by a larger school with more money in the end.
FSU, Oregon, Texas...These are all teams now in the Top 10 with the NIL catalyst.
The "middle of the pack" is a channel just like trading. You're at the top of the channel when you're playing favorable schedules and the breaks go your way like last year. You're at the bottom when experience a season like this year.
Can't argue too much with that.
Imo, we should be looking at fighting it out with the middle of the pack teams.
Now, how to do it? If our NIL level is a given, we're left with recruiting and coaching. (For the aspect of recruiting that can be separated from NIL)
Our recruiting has been pretty consistent across multiple staffs, but it's always good to emphasize.
Coaching is what is left. I am not comfortable throwing up my hands and saying "oh well" during bad seasons just because of NIL. I still want to see a coach field a team that looks well coached. (Even in losses) if you do that, I think we comfortably qualify for bowls consistently.
Scheduling and staying healthy are keys to success when you're undermanned in games. Typically, teams in the middle win the bulk of their games in their own building. Playing at home is an advantage that can help offset better talent and deeper pockets on occasion.
For example, last season we beat A&M, Auburn and UT at home - all teams with better talent. This season thus far, we've beat Miss St. and lost a close one we should have won to UF.
Beamer is 12-5 at WB which includes that tough loss against UF. He'll probably go to 15-6 after we have our home stretch of games this season if we can get a few of these injured guys back before UK.
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We don't really have much control over the conference games, but this brings up the patsy debate. You get more home games if you don't have to schedule a home and home. So 3 patsies a year plus Clemson helps.
Helps keep the injuries down at the same time as increasing wins too.
SEC Home Wins under Beamer:
Florida
A&M
Tennessee
Auburn
Kentucky
Mississippi State
Vanderbilt
SEC Home Losses under Beamer:
UK (6pt. - First season)
UGA (obvious)
UF (2pt. - This season)
Missouri
Agree. It's not as complicated as some are making it.
Our recruiting classes are typically ranked around 10th in the conference. Our NIL collectives rank around 10th according to several publications.
We beat Mississippi State and will probably beat Vandy. UK is a toss up game at home. Even though they aren't on our schedule, we're probably better than Auburn and Arkansas this year too. This puts us around 9th or 10th best team in the conference.
100%. Not to mention, if your coaching staff really blows, it's evident from the start of the game. As mentioned, we've played well in every first quarter this season other than at Missouri. That's indicative of a staff coming into matchups with a good game plan. Playing 60 minutes typically yields to talent on the field in football.
One could also say that's indicative of lack of good adjustments. But one could also argue lack of depth rears its head at the same time as lack of adjustments, making it hard to discern.
The NIL in most cases only serves to fortify the advantages the blue bloods already had. That's what is happening to us. Players like Bell and Lloyd probably don't bounce if $$$ and a no-wait portal doesn't exist.
Teams who have good resources but have been struggling in the recent past - such as FSU, Texas and Oregon - are now re-energized via the NIL.
Imo, the NIL just changes the names of the "elite" teams that we don't need to worry about contending with.
As was said above, we're about 10th in NIL, we were usually around 10th in recruiting.
Our hurdles remain. I just don't think we can add subpar coaching to that.
No. It creates havoc for teams who can't afford to keep their good players each year. The big teams now go shopping at the end of each season. We're on their list. It widens the gap between haves and have-nots. The NIL is a huge deal. Coaches who are on the wrong side of the riches have discussed this regularly. Even Spurrier discussed this topic a few years back.
We could have really used Bell and Lloyd this year - especially given our injuries at the WR position. Rattler needed more quality outlets.
Assume for a minute I agree with everything there. Ignore the elites that are coming around and picking off players.
My contention is that we wouldn't compete with them anyway.
It's the level(s) below that where we need to compete. And, imho, if we're going to hire a supposedly ceo coach, he better make very good staff hires. Is that what we're getting?
You almost made my point. In 2014 year 1 at Charleston Southern they beat App State, The Citadel and Liberty. Then took over the Big South beating Coastal Carolina, ALL teams with far more resources. They were 1 OT FG away from beating NDSU in Fargo, the ultra dynasty of FCS. They sustained that until Chadwell left for Coaatal in 2017.
He did the same at Coastal. Barely removed from FCS and they’re on ESPN GameDay beating ranked BYU. He did it at North Greenville which has fewer resources than most 4A high schools.
The gaps he overcame at those places and WON big with, were far wider than the resources gap among any SEC teams other than Vandy. So no I dont think by year 3 Chadwell would be in the same mess as we are now.
Who knows, if we finish 6-6 maybe we face Chadwells Liberty team, who will likely be 12-0 or 11-1…..in year 1….with recruiting classes ranked among the worst in FBS the last 5 years.
Not sure I follow here? My point is that SEC and most P5 is cut throat in terms of jockeying for the best recruits and donors. Most schools are maximizing their potential to try to keep up. On top of that, we have the richer schools now buying other P5 schools quality players.
If your contention is that we wouldn't compete with them anyway, why are we so upset that our record is 2-6? What would you have expected our record to be currently coming into the season? Based on the schedule, I would think 4-4 at best.
The only team we've lost to who we've been in the mix with as far as recruiting and NIL is Missouri. They are having a good run this year. We had a good run last year. The Scheduling/Homefield advantage and injuries are the most important factors when you're fielding similar talent.
Last year, Beamer outperformed better competition because we were healthy and played well against better competition WIlliams-Brice. This year, we've only played two SEC games at home to date and played well in both games.
Not to put words in anyone's mouth, but I think he was answering with this paragraph:
The gaps he overcame at those places and WON big with, were far wider than the resources gap among any SEC teams other than Vandy. So no I dont think by year 3 Chadwell would be in the same mess as we are now.
UNC was a winnable game, Missouri should have been, and Florida was a train wreck until they played us. None of those teams should be out of our reach at this point.
Although given a couple years, Napier will probably have UF out-of our reach. And Huepel certainly has UT on a trajectory to leave us behind.
But the talent composite rankings, UT, UF and UNC were with 5, 6 and 7 spots of us, with Missouri being lower.
2021 College Football Team Talent Composite
2021 College Football Team Talent Composite
In order to create the most comprehensive Team Recruiting Ranking without any notion of bias, 247Sports Team Recruiting Ranking is solely based on the 247Sports Composite Rating.
247sports.com
Interesting site you can search by year.
It's a function of scaling.
If you have teams ranked well out of the Top 50 or even the Top 100 in the case of the teams he's referencing, there's ample room for improvement. When UGA is #1 and the rest of your league dominates the Top 20 in both recruiting and NIL, there's little room to operate.
UNC was a winnable game, Missouri should have been, and Florida was a train wreck until they played us. None of those teams should be out of our reach at this point.
Although given a couple years, Napier will probably have UF out-of our reach. And Huepel certainly has UT on a trajectory to leave us behind.
But the talent composite rankings, UT, UF and UNC were with 5, 6 and 7 spots of us, with Missouri being lower.
2021 College Football Team Talent Composite
2021 College Football Team Talent Composite
In order to create the most comprehensive Team Recruiting Ranking without any notion of bias, 247Sports Team Recruiting Ranking is solely based on the 247Sports Composite Rating.
Interesting site you can search by year.
They aren't out of reach. Last year, we outperformed and beat some really good teams last year at home. Many expected continuation this season. We have to catch "winnable" games at WB and be healthy to compete in most cases.
The odds of beating both UNC and Missouri in away games this year without our 2nd best player on the field was super low.
UNC has been recruiting in the Top 10. Their NIL program is in the Top 10. Mack Brown has been a coach there longer than Beamer and has his full system and recruits in place.
Missouri is a team we've beaten 5 out of 14 games in our history. It's not the "winnable" game everyone would like to believe - especially when we're playing them in their building and with key injuries.
Exactly. Just like I said. Looks like we are getting exactly what we paid for. Got more than we paid for last year.
UNC and UF did not field THAT much more of a talented team than we did, and Missouri less.
In one paragraph, we're excusing losses due to recruiting and NIL, in the next we're excusing losses to a team that we beat in both categories.
I don't think the gap is as big as some would have us believe, unless you are talking UGA, and Bama, etc.
As I said earlier, by the talent composite rankings, UT, UF and UNC were with 5, 6 and 7 spots of us, with Missouri being lower. Those are the types of differences that need to be overcome with coaching. Not excused.
And I think we're overpaying if all we want is a coach to roll over for teams with higher NIL rankings. Oh, and Missouri.
My dog could do that for a lot less money.
If you actually mapped out recruiting/NIL funding and success, you'd be surprised how closely it's correlated over a 5-year stretch. The Law of Averages kicks in. That's the most important factor by a long shot.
Spurrier's reign is a good example. He was sporadic just like other coaches until he found that recruiting angle which thrust us into the Top 10.
I think the recruiting angle was the state of SC having a ton of NFL talent in a short span, and he cleaned house over Clemson.
Exactly. He was very fortunate in that regard. The state happened to have some of the best talent in the country during his run and he had the built-in brand to pull those players in. It was the perfect storm.
We had a chance for continuation with the next coach, but Ray hired a someone who had just run the UF program into the ground -- squashing Urban Meyer's momentum. He did the same with us and Spurrier's momentum.
So that translates back to Beamer how?
We just have to accept losses to anyone with a higher NIL, and sometimes to teams like Missouri or Kentucky too. And settle until some good in state recruits come along to propel us?
We operate within a channel of the medium-to-lower tier teams in the SEC. Last year, the schedule aligned, we stayed healthy and the staff capitalized on the opportunity. Beamer overachieved last season in comparison to the hand he has to play (10th in recruiting, 10th in NIL)
This season, the schedule was unfavorable and the injuries unfortunate. As a result, we're closer to the bottom of the channel.
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