Ray Tanners non-conference scheduling disaster

[Bucs90]

Ok. Yet another Ray Tanner special is our non conference scheduling. Strength of schedule only matters to playoff contenders. Otherwise its just wins and losses. We all know our SEC schedule is already brutal. And obviously we play Clemson who has been a consistent top 10 program for what, 10 years now (thankfully seems to be ending now).

So that said, WHY THE HECK is Ray scheduling teams like North Carolina? Our other 3 non conference should be basically sure wins. Along with Vandy, that gives us a 4 win base every season, so 2 wins more and we bowl every year.

Ray has now scheduled Virginia Tech, Miami, App State, UNC again, for future opponents. WHY??? Why is he determined to make our steep hill steeper?

 

[Bucs90]

This is our 2027 along with a brutal SEC slate:

2027​

• 09/04 - East Carolina
• 09/11 - Appalachian State
• 09/18 - at Miami (FL)
• 11/27 - Clemson

Thanks Ray. Way to give us absolutely no easy weeks. That man knows how to build a winning football team

 

[uscwatson21]

Have to disagree with you. Would we really feel better about being 6-6 if we replaced Clemson and UNC with two more gimmes?

It would just give our fanbase too much belief things were better than they actually are in reality.

 

[Bucs90]

Have to disagree with you. Would we really feel better about being 6-6 if we replaced Clemson and UNC with two more gimmes?

It would just give our fanbase too much belief things were better than they actually are in reality.

Yes. Winning breeds winning. We need bowl games and winning seasons to build. We arent replacing Clemson that’s permanent. So we already have them plus a brutal SEC schedule. That leaves us 3 games to play with. Along with Vandy, thats the only 3 games we have where we can basically assume a win. Id say 8 wins is the benchmark here for a great season. So we could in theory have 4 assumed wins. We need to win 50% of the other 8 very tough games. Why would we make it even harder? Why replace Wofford with Miami?? Why replace UMass with App State???

 

[Lurker123]

At this point, I'm leaning towards the idea of 3 ooc patsies a year.

Clemson plus an SEC slate makes for a tough enough schedule. And I seriously believe that extra win may play a big role in some years.

 

[Harvard Gamecock]

Definitely not in favor of a weak schedule. Too many reasons to list.
Let's just say it is not a good look.

 

[Bucs90]

Definitely not in favor of a weak schedule. Too many reasons to list.
Let's just say it is not a good look.

Does 4-8 look better??? Again winning breed’s winning, it attracts winning players, guys who played in winning HS programs arent used to the feeling of losing and it can affect a team (see Mcleod leaving).

If we played in a different conference I wouldnt think this. But we are guaranteed 4-5 games a year against elite programs now like Texas, Oklahoma, LSU, Bama, Georgia, etc, along with Clemson.

It boggles my mind why Ray Tanner, and many fans, want to make a steep hill even steeper. We need to finish around 8-4 most years, with the occasional 10 win or 5 win outlier.

Thats impossible if ole Ray keeps handing us the #1 toughest schedule in America. WHY DOES HE DO THIS??????

 

[Ward Jr]

Does 4-8 look better??? Again winning breed’s winning, it attracts winning players, guys who played in winning HS programs arent used to the feeling of losing and it can affect a team (see Mcleod leaving).

If we played in a different conference I wouldnt think this. But we are guaranteed 4-5 games a year against elite programs now like Texas, Oklahoma, LSU, Bama, Georgia, etc, along with Clemson.

It boggles my mind why Ray Tanner, and many fans, want to make a steep hill even steeper. We need to finish around 8-4 most years, with the occasional 10 win or 5 win outlier.

Thats impossible if ole Ray keeps handing us the #1 toughest schedule in America. WHY DOES HE DO THIS??????

I guess it depends on who you are trying to fool. It was easy to see that Muschamp was beating the cupcakes on his schedule and losing to most P5 and SEC schools.

 

[Lurker123]

Definitely not in favor of a weak schedule. Too many reasons to list.
Let's just say it is not a good look.

This is where we split hairs though. Our conference schedule plus clemson is strong already. Imho, the question is if we need ANOTHER P5 team on that schedule.

 

[Harvard Gamecock]

Does 4-8 look better??? Again winning breed’s winning, it attracts winning players, guys who played in winning HS programs arent used to the feeling of losing and it can affect a team (see Mcleod leaving).

If we played in a different conference I wouldnt think this. But we are guaranteed 4-5 games a year against elite programs now like Texas, Oklahoma, LSU, Bama, Georgia, etc, along with Clemson.

It boggles my mind why Ray Tanner, and many fans, want to make a steep hill even steeper. We need to finish around 8-4 most years, with the occasional 10 win or 5 win outlier.

Thats impossible if ole Ray keeps handing us the #1 toughest schedule in America. WHY DOES HE DO THIS??????

This is where we split hairs though. Our conference schedule plus clemson is strong already. Imho, the question is if we need ANOTHER P5 team on that schedule.

What I'm getting from your replies is that you feel we are not capable of putting a very good squad together that would be capable of the "anytime, anywhere" attitude, so it would be better to schedule, several mediocre or less schools so at the very least we have 8 wins.

 

[Ward Jr]

This is where we split hairs though. Our conference schedule plus clemson is strong already. Imho, the question is if we need ANOTHER P5 team on that schedule.

All depends on the objective. If you want to try to inch up to a better non-playoff bowl, it might be better to schedule the weaker opponents to pad the schedule.

IMO, I'd rather than three more exciting games in the regular season than try to move up from the Belk Bowl to the Taxpayer Bowl. Again, this mentality might change if we were legitimately in the hunt for a playoff spot via expansion.

 

[Lurker123]

What I'm getting from your replies is that you feel we are not capable of putting a very good squad together that would be capable of the "anytime, anywhere" attitude, so it would be better to schedule, several mediocre or less schools so at the very least we have 8 wins.

Pretty much.

I am of the notion that we need to be a consistent 8 win team before we start talking about taking steps after that.

That's not to say I don't see your side of things too.

 

[Bucs90]

I guess it depends on who you are trying to fool. It was easy to see that Muschamp was beating the cupcakes on his schedule and losing to most P5 and SEC schools.

Well let’s look at others. Michigan and Ohio State played awful out of conference other than 1 game Ohio St vs Notre Dame. Why? They know the W/L record is what matters most. They stopped stacking their non conference schedule. Georgia did the same.

On the other hand, Florida. UF already plays FSU, a top 5 team. But they decided to also play Utah, a GREAT team, and took an unnecessary loss. UF is 5-2, but could/should be 6-1 heading to #1 Georgia. How different is their season if they are 6-1 now and upset Georgia??? They’re a playoff team. But 6-2 after a Georgia upset? Nope.

Was playing @ Utah instead of, say, Southern Miss, and taking that loss, worth it for Florida?

We are talking about being an honorable 5-7 vs 8-4 with a couple cupcakes. Gimme them cupcakes and a January 1st bowl game

 

[Bucs90]

What I'm getting from your replies is that you feel we are not capable of putting a very good squad together that would be capable of the "anytime, anywhere" attitude, so it would be better to schedule, several mediocre or less schools so at the very least we have 8 wins.

Thats HOW you become a team like that. Recruits want to win. Players from in state programs like Byrnes and Summerville, kids we NEED, aren’t used to going 4-8, and they either wont come or will come and quickly get tired of losing and portal out.

Honest question: We play Jacksonville State soon, which should be a sure win (god help us if its not). Would you rather we had scheduled Duke or Oregon State, who we might lose to, and this seasons win total be even less?

 

[Ward Jr]

Well let’s look at others. Michigan and Ohio State played awful out of conference other than 1 game Ohio St vs Notre Dame. Why? They know the W/L record is what matters most. They stopped stacking their non conference schedule. Georgia did the same.

On the other hand, Florida. UF already plays FSU, a top 5 team. But they decided to also play Utah, a GREAT team, and took an unnecessary loss. UF is 5-2, but could/should be 6-1 heading to #1 Georgia. How different is their season if they are 6-1 now and upset Georgia??? They’re a playoff team. But 6-2 after a Georgia upset? Nope.

Was playing @ Utah instead of, say, Southern Miss, and taking that loss, worth it for Florida?

We are talking about being an honorable 5-7 vs 8-4 with a couple cupcakes. Gimme them cupcakes and a January 1st bowl game

Tastes and Preferences. You're talking about teams with a legitimate shot of going to the playoffs each and every year.

Our cupcake games typically don't come close to selling out for the AD. They usually give tickets away. That's a factor as well.

 

[Ward Jr]

Thats HOW you become a team like that. Recruits want to win. Players from in state programs like Byrnes and Summerville, kids we NEED, aren’t used to going 4-8, and they either wont come or will come and quickly get tired of losing and portal out.

Honest question: We play Jacksonville State soon, which should be a sure win (god help us if its not). Would you rather we had scheduled Duke or Oregon State, who we might lose to, and this seasons win total be even less?

Great recruits of today want to get paid. It's a different game with the NIL.

 

[Bucs90]

Pretty much.

I am of the notion that we need to be a consistent 8 win team before we start talking about taking steps after that.

That's not to say I don't see your side of things too.

I agree with you 100%. Just like aspiring boxers who have to work their way up to becoming a contender, they need wins, if they only take fights against higher ranked boxers their W-L record will suffer and they never climb.

We need to start putting together consistent 8-4 type seasons so we can attract more high level recruits and establish a winning culture. Just as winning breed’s winning so does losing breed losing, and portal outs, and toxic attitudes.

With Clemson + SEC schedule there’s absolutely no reason Ray should be scheduling UNC, Miami, App St, Va Tech and other teams who will be a dog fight for us at best, an ugly loss at worst

 

[Bucs90]

Great recruits of today want to get paid. It's a different game with the NIL.

Yep and what does that? Playing for a winner. Having lots of highlight reel plays. Being exposed to bigger crowds in ranked vs ranked games/bowls. So when we inevitably played ranked LSU, ranked Oklahoma, etc, we need to be ranked also.

Michigan and Ohio St are playoff contenders this year bc their non conference schedule was easy and they didnt take unnecessary losses.

Our week 1 loss to UNC was unnecessary and it immediately turned 2023 onto a negative track.

We all remember those 11-2 Spurrier years so fondly. Other than Clemson, I can’t remember who those squad’s played in non-conference. Does it matter? They beat Georgia and Clemson and beat some great teams in some great bowls. Thats what mattered

 

[bayrooster]

Ok. Yet another Ray Tanner special is our non conference scheduling. Strength of schedule only matters to playoff contenders. Otherwise its just wins and losses. We all know our SEC schedule is already brutal. And obviously we play Clemson who has been a consistent top 10 program for what, 10 years now (thankfully seems to be ending now).

So that said, WHY THE HECK is Ray scheduling teams like North Carolina? Our other 3 non conference should be basically sure wins. Along with Vandy, that gives us a 4 win base every season, so 2 wins more and we bowl every year.

Ray has now scheduled Virginia Tech, Miami, App State, UNC again, for future opponents. WHY??? Why is he determined to make our steep hill steeper?

Why should UNC be considered too strong to have on our schedule? I think it's better to have a smaller FCS school for the first game, but I have no problem with playing UNC every other season.

 

[bayrooster]

Yes. Winning breeds winning. We need bowl games and winning seasons to build. We arent replacing Clemson that’s permanent. So we already have them plus a brutal SEC schedule. That leaves us 3 games to play with. Along with Vandy, thats the only 3 games we have where we can basically assume a win. Id say 8 wins is the benchmark here for a great season. So we could in theory have 4 assumed wins. We need to win 50% of the other 8 very tough games. Why would we make it even harder? Why replace Wofford with Miami?? Why replace UMass with App State???

We can't win bowl games if we're loaded with cupcakes for non-conference games in order to finish 6-6 or 7-5.

 

[Ward Jr]

Yep and what does that? Playing for a winner. Having lots of highlight reel plays. Being exposed to bigger crowds in ranked vs ranked games/bowls. So when we inevitably played ranked LSU, ranked Oklahoma, etc, we need to be ranked also.

Michigan and Ohio St are playoff contenders this year bc their non conference schedule was easy and they didnt take unnecessary losses.

Our week 1 loss to UNC was unnecessary and it immediately turned 2023 onto a negative track.

We all remember those 11-2 Spurrier years so fondly. Other than Clemson, I can’t remember who those squad’s played in non-conference. Does it matter? They beat Georgia and Clemson and beat some great teams in some great bowls. Thats what mattered

Spurrier had success at USC because he brought with him his own brand. Similar with Holtz.

With that brand, they had the media and talent interest built in. Spurrier's first years at USC were really no more of a selling point than Beamer's or Muschamp's. The difference is that the media didn't give up him up, we caught some serious breaks on the recruiting trail, and he eventually found the right combination of coaches to help elevate play. However, he didn't have to deal with talented players wanting big money on the front end. Nor did he have to deal with the no-wait portal.

 

[Lurker123]

I suppose I should clarify. I've said in the pa

We can't win bowl games if we're loaded with cupcakes for non-conference games in order to finish 6-6 or 7-5.

I would counter with the idea that the SEC schedule (and Clemson added) would prepare us for that bowl.

 

[Gamecock Jacque]

How do the other SEC teams that know what they're doing handle OOC schedules?

 

[Ward Jr]

How do the other SEC teams that know what they're doing handle OOC schedules?

Pretty much the same way we do. Typically 2 of the 3 games will be soft. On occasion, it's one of the three.

OP is referencing a schedule 4 years away. Chances are East Carolina and App State won't be strong at that point. These are the teams which take the biggest hit from the new NIL/Portal. Many of their good players are now going to get picked up by teams will pay them to play - us included. The odds of a App State, East Carolina, Boise State, etc. having a senior-lead team make waves in the national scene are much lower at this point.

 

[Lurker123]

Pretty much the same way we do. Typically 2 of the 3 games will be soft. On occasion, it's one of the three.

OP is referencing a schedule 4 years away. Chances are East Carolina and App State won't be strong at that point. These are the teams which take the biggest hit from the new NIL/Portal. Many of their good players are now going to get picked up by teams will pay them to play - us included. The odds of a App State, East Carolina, Boise State, etc. having a senior-lead team make waves in the national scene are much lower at this point.

Without digging into the schedules, I wonder if it makes a difference with the rivalry games.

Bama plays Auburn, so they have an "extra" ooc to schedule. Same with Auburn, Ole miss, msu, etc.

 

[Ward Jr]

Without digging into the schedules, I wonder if it makes a difference with the rivalry games.

Bama plays Auburn, so they have an "extra" ooc to schedule. Same with Auburn, Ole miss, msu, etc.

Very well could. We certainly don't want to have the most difficult schedule in the country year in and out. However, if you look at the history of our SOS rank, it's pretty much on par with other teams in the SEC. Also, you're scheduling 5-years out, so a decent part of this is pot luck.

 

[turncock]

Spurrier had success at USC because he brought with him his own brand. Similar with Holtz.

With that brand, they had the media and talent interest built in. Spurrier's first years at USC were really no more of a selling point than Beamer's or Muschamp's. The difference is that the media didn't give up him up, we caught some serious breaks on the recruiting trail, and he eventually found the right combination of coaches to help elevate play. However, he didn't have to deal with talented players wanting big money on the front end. Nor did he have to deal with the no-wait portal.

Agree. Whenever we go shopping for a head coach again, this should be a priority. Carolina on its own doesn't have good branding. We also don't have the most money and aren't located in the perfect setting.

Who knows if we had a chance at getting Lane Kiffin or even Deion Sanders. However, they fit the bill in terms of generating interest to the school on their own merit. Kiffin is having success at Ole Miss and Deion is making waves at Colorado in both the media and bringing in big donor money. Marketing magnets are probably more important than Xs and Os head coaches at Carolina. If we were UGA or Alabama, that wouldn't be the case. Their schools have good stand alone branding from both tradition and location.

 

[Harvard Gamecock]

Thats HOW you become a team like that. Recruits want to win. Players from in state programs like Byrnes and Summerville, kids we NEED, aren’t used to going 4-8, and they either wont come or will come and quickly get tired of losing and portal out.

Honest question: We play Jacksonville State soon, which should be a sure win (god help us if its not). Would you rather we had scheduled Duke or Oregon State, who we might lose to, and this seasons win total be even less?

1. Umm, no. You do not become a top caliber team by beating the likes of UMass, Furman, etc.
2. When you win total is expected at this point to be 4, does it really matter if it drops to 3.
4-8 or 3-9 is a miserable season, even 5-7 is pretty miserable.

 

[bayrooster]

Pretty much the same way we do. Typically 2 of the 3 games will be soft. On occasion, it's one of the three.

OP is referencing a schedule 4 years away. Chances are East Carolina and App State won't be strong at that point. These are the teams which take the biggest hit from the new NIL/Portal. Many of their good players are now going to get picked up by teams will pay them to play - us included. The odds of a App State, East Carolina, Boise State, etc. having a senior-lead team make waves in the national scene are much lower at this point.

Georgia's first couple of games are always cupcakes, except for the occassional ESPN prime time scheduled "kick off" games. UNC would have been a harder opener than Georgia has had (even though they'd have made short work of them) in many seasons. I think scheduling a 2-game tune-up the way they have makes great sense. Exception being that if you don't "coach em up" to improve from one game to the next it won't make a difference (our situation).

 

[Ward Jr]

Georgia's first couple of games are always cupcakes, except for the occassional ESPN prime time scheduled "kick off" games. UNC would have been a harder opener than Georgia has had (even though they'd have made short work of them) in many seasons. I think scheduling a 2-game tune-up the way they have makes great sense. Exception being that if you don't "coach em up" to improve from one game to the next it won't make a difference (our situation).

Totally agree. Furman would have a nice game one this year. I don't see much value in playing Jacksonville State next week in terms of timing. Work out the kinks on the front end. Also, by playing these games early, you don't have to show your full hand before playing a UGA in game 3.

 

[Bucs90]

Why should UNC be considered too strong to have on our schedule? I think it's better to have a smaller FCS school for the first game, but I have no problem with playing UNC every other season.

Because they beat us

 

[CockySC01]

Im not for an easier schedule. I’d rather have more exciting and quality games. But I see the point.
If we replaced all non-SEC games with complete and total cupcakes, we would likely make a bowl if we managed to win just two or three SEC games. An invite based off weak wins. A problem with that is we would probably get slaughtered in the bowl because the other team will likely belong there. Plus, if we can’t really win in our own conference, why do we need to go out bowling? The players and coaches should sit their butts at home and watch the post season games with the rest of us! Or better yet, back home practicing.

 

[Gamecock Jacque]

A problem with that is we would probably get slaughtered in the bowl

Not the kind of bowl we'd be in under that scenario.

 

[Gamecock Jacque]

why do we need to go out bowling?

Supposedly for the extra practices that the younger players get. That's an advantage if you have real coaches.

 

[Bucs90]

Im not for an easier schedule. I’d rather have more exciting and quality games. But I see the point.
If we replaced all non-SEC games with complete and total cupcakes, we would likely make a bowl if we managed to win just two or three SEC games. An invite based off weak wins. A problem with that is we would probably get slaughtered in the bowl because the other team will likely belong there. Plus, if we can’t really win in our own conference, why do we need to go out bowling? The players and coaches should sit their butts at home and watch the post season games with the rest of us! Or better yet, back home practicing.

A team thats 8-4 and going to bowls will recruit better players than one who is 5-7 sitting at home. Soooo which would we rather have? More “exciting games” (ala more losses), or, a better record and better talent to play Clemson and the SEC with?

Im surprised this is even a toss up question

 

[Bucs90]

Supposedly for the extra practices that the younger players get. That's an advantage if you have real coaches.

Also, an 8-4 team simply recruits better than a 4-8 one. Great HS players usually play for winning HS teams, and they dont wanna experience losing 8 games a year.