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Right now the mortality rate of this is at 1.2% in the USA. If this keeps going down...

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Interesting read. Stanford researchers calculate the real mortality to likely be < 0.1%.

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/...claim-more-data-needed-to-know-mortality-rate
The Washington Examiner is a politically motivated outfit. The researchers wrote an opinion piece in the WSJ, not an actual science article. Neither guy has a science degree. One is an MD and Econ PhD who never practiced medicine. The other is a policy expert with no science papers. The are estimating rates based on reasonable assumptions, but there’s no peer-reviewed data here. I agree, cool read, but these numbers are not reality.

You guys need to see through the politics here. The “Washington Examiner” sounds like unbiased journalism. “Stanford researchers” sounds like science. Keeping deaths rates low in the minds of the average American serves who?
 
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Me when I see a post from an ignored member
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You are so... remarkable.
 
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The Washington Examiner is a politically motivated outfit. The researchers wrote an opinion piece in the WSJ, not an actual science article. Neither guy has a science degree. One is an MD and Econ PhD who never practiced medicine. The other is a policy expert with no science papers. The are estimating rates based on reasonable assumptions, but there’s no peer-reviewed data here. I agree, cool read, but these numbers are not reality.


Michael Smerconish on the Sirius XM POTUS channel discussed this article on his show earlier this week.
I didn’t get to hear most of it but he thought it was interesting to consider their point of view, but it’s definitely an opinion piece.

his show is excellent. 9am- 12 noon. He’s doesn’t push any partisan side. He doesn’t always talk politics either.
 
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Michael Smerconish on the Sirius XM POTUS channel discussed this article on his show earlier this week.
I didn’t get to hear most of it but he thought it was interesting to consider their point of view, but it’s definitely an opinion piece.

his show is excellent. 9am- 12 noon. He’s doesn’t push any partisan side.
I think that’s the job of these policy experts is to raise interesting questions. I guess my point is we shouldn’t look at these estimated numbers as some sort of guideline to reopen the economy.

What the Trump administration makes a good point about the solution not being worse than the problem. I just think we need the facts about the solution and the problem before we decide.
 
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The Washington Examiner is a politically motivated outfit. The researchers wrote an opinion piece in the WSJ, not an actual science article. Neither guy has a science degree. One is an MD and Econ PhD who never practiced medicine. The other is a policy expert with no science papers. The are estimating rates based on reasonable assumptions, but there’s no peer-reviewed data here. I agree, cool read, but these numbers are not reality.

First of all, what does practicing medicine have to do with anything? Many people get an MD for reasons other than practicing medicine. MANY MDs out there strictly do research.

Here is Eran Bendavid's CV: https://cap.stanford.edu/profiles/viewCV?facultyId=9404&name=Eran_Bendavid

He has undergraduate degrees in Chemistry and Philosophy, an MD and an MS in health services. So he has multiple science degrees AND an MD. You must not have read his list of publications very closely. I didn't make it past the first page before I saw him listed as first author on papers that were published in "Pediatrics" (the foremost journal in the world for pediatric medicine) and the Journal of the American Medical Association (in the handful of most influential journals in the world). Both are unquestionably "science papers" as you amateurishly call them.

Jay Bhattacharya's CV: https://web.stanford.edu/~jay/CV-Jay-Dec2017.pdf

He has an MD and a Ph.D. in economics. Economics is a social science and uses a TON of scientific theories and data analysis. FYI: economics goes way beyond dollars and the stock market. People with economics degrees perform data analysis for a wide range of disciplines.

You couldn't ask for a more ideally suited pair to perform the data analysis for the likely mortality of coronavirus. This is an interdisciplinary study and they have ALL the training necessary for both the medical understanding as well as the necessary data analysis.
 
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I think that’s the job of these policy experts is to raise interesting questions. I guess my point is we shouldn’t look at these estimated numbers as some sort of guideline to reopen the economy.
.


I agree.

I just looked at it as yet another opinion piece.
 
It's also logical to assume the mortality rate will grow as the healthcare system in a given area becomes overwhelmed. No doubt, many have died in Italy who could have been saved under normal circumstances. This is as true for someone who went to the hospital with terrible covid19 symptoms as well as somebody who went there with a heart attack or was rushed there after a bad car accident. When you arrive at a hospital that cant help you, the death rates will rise regardless of the illness. I suspect the final mortality rates in the US will vary considerably, based on the geographic area.

This precisely why we need to stay home and flatten the curve. So our medical professionals have a chance to save people.
 
lol, you're out of your depth here. Horribly. And, not surprisingly, you're horribly WRONG WRONG WRONG WRONG!!! First of all, what does practicing medicine have to do with anything? You obviously don't know about the MD degree because many people get an MD for reasons other than practicing medicine. MANY MDs out there strictly do research.

For the record, I am a molecular biologist and professor of genetics. I was a researcher at USDA for 4 years before I went into academics. I also advise 30 pre-meds each year. Yet, I am the one out of my depths... you mind telling me what you do sir?

Practicing medicine proves you scored high enough on your Step exam to match in a residency, so it's one way to know how well you did in med school. I realize that MDs do research, but there's less money there and is typically a backup plan for those not matching on match day. This guy appears to be a bit different... I think. No way to tell if he would have matched, but he did go to Harvard Med, meaning he probably destroyed his Step exam. So he probably just wanted to do research and not practice.

A Master's in Health Services is a policy degree, not a science degree. MD is not a science degree, more of a "human mechanic" degree, lots of memorization and reading case studies, not setting up experiments. A BA in Chem at Harvard is no joke, but requires very little biology. For example, viruses aren't necessarily covered with any depth.

The dude is clearly very bright and well published, but nothing on his resume suggests he is an expert on the biology of viruses.

Here is Eran Bendavid's CV: https://cap.stanford.edu/profiles/viewCV?facultyId=9404&name=Eran_Bendavid

He has undergraduate degrees in Chemistry and Philosophy, an MD and an MS in health services. So he has multiple science degrees AND an MD. You must not have read his list of publications very closely. I didn't make it past the first page before I saw him listed as first author on papers that were published in "Pediatrics" (the foremost journal in the world for pediatric medicine) and the Journal of the American Medical Association (in the handful of most influential journals in the world). Both are unquestionably "science papers" as you amateurishly call them.

Jay Bhattacharya's CV: https://web.stanford.edu/~jay/CV-Jay-Dec2017.pdf

He has an MD and a Ph.D. in economics. Economics is a social science and uses a TON of scientific theories and data analysis. FYI: economics goes way beyond dollars and the stock market. People with economics degrees perform data analysis for a wide range of disciplines.

You couldn't ask for a more ideally suited pair to perform the data analysis for the likely mortality of coronavirus. This is an interdisciplinary study and they have ALL the training necessary for both the medical understanding as well as the necessary data analysis.

Did I mention that you're WRONG?

The "science" papers you're referring to are policy papers. The JAMA article you refer to is titled: "Complication Rates on Weekends and Weekdays in U.S. Hospitals." What branch of biology or chemistry does that belong to?

Literally all of the guy's papers look at things like drug prices and patient outcomes. He knows stats, but he does not know the biology of the disease itself. This is policy not actually virology.

As for economics beings a science? No, as you correctly stated, that is a social science. There's a reason Biology majors with low GPAs switch to Psychology and Econ. degrees. Those fields lack depth of understanding.

This pair is ideally suited to analyze the current numbers as reported by hospitals, but they have no clue about the virus itself. Any attempt by these two to speculate about how the disease will manifest is not based on biology, rather based on historical trends. It's a thought provoking opinion piece worth following up on with actual science, but should not be used as evidence of why we need to lift the "shelter in place" orders.

Feel free to fire back a few more WRONG WRONG WRONGs if it makes you feel better. Why are you reading my posts if you've ignored me?
 
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It's not about LETTING anyone die. It's about whether we can even do anything to save anyone. We don't have any idea if these social isolation attempts and not allowing people to go work are even doing anything. It's just a hope and prayer that it's going to "flatten the curve." How do we even know it's working? All I know Is rent is due in a couple of months. People won't get evicted but that means people won't pay their rent and what do the landlords do about their bills then? The economy can't take this for long. So are you okay with letting a Great Depression happen? Do you think that is what the people departing this world want for their children and grandchildren? I am not saying what to do. I am just saying it's a tough morale choice. Doctors overseas are having to make tough choices right now on gets to live and who gets to die. There are starting to talk about whether we should have a Do Not Resuscitate Policy that universal. Meaning they don't try to revive any coronavirus patient who goes into cardiac arrest. The fear is that we are uselessly trying to control something that is really 100% already out of our control and destroying our economy at the same time.
 
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It's not about LETTING anyone die. It's about whether we can even do anything to save anyone. We don't have any idea if these social isolation attempts and not allowing people to go work are even doing anything. It's just a hope and prayer that it's going to "flatten the curve." How do we even know it's working? All I know Is rent is due in a couple of months. People won't get evicted but that means people won't pay their rent and what do the landlords do about their bills then? The economy can't take this for long. So are you okay with letting a Great Depression happen? Do you think that is what the people departing this world want for their children and grandchildren? I am not saying what to do. I am just saying it's a tough morale choice. Doctors overseas are having to make tough choices right now on gets to live and who gets to die. There are starting to talk about whether we should have a Do Not Resuscitate Policy that universal. Meaning they don't try to revive any coronavirus patient who goes into cardiac arrest. The fear is that we are uselessly trying to control something that is really 100% already out of our control and destroying our economy at the same time.
What do you mean we do not know if this will work? Keeping an infected person away from an uninfected person always works. There’s no debating that.

You’re right that we can’t just completely destroy economy at all costs. I don’t think we’ve gotten far enough along to say that that’s what we are doing with these isolation policies.There’s really no arguing though that we should not be trying to slow the spread of this virus at the moment until we can get medical resources at a higher level to deal with the eventual infections.
 
Do you know when you are full of shit? When you post 2700 time on a message board and only have 200 likes.
Sounds like you’re scared of somebody that actually knows about biology. Why fear me? Research from people like me is what’s going to save your ass in the future. But you want to count likes?

You deserve this version of America.
 
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So, to post something that is somewhat related to the original thread subject;

This morning I heard two current sets of numbers regarding deaths/infections. In the US, there have been ~75000 infections and 1078 deaths. Here in S.C. there have been 424 cases resulting in 8 deaths.

Those numbers come to percentages of 1.44% and 1.89% respectively.

Just found it interesting.
 
Note to self, and anybody who cares bout this board. Ignore Gamecock Ben (who tried unbelievably to insert abortion in this thread), Duke Denver, Expro and Dishnell. The thread and political hijackers do it every time. Where's rollerdude111?

Congrats to those trying to keep the thread on topic.
 
All those posts are from a different Rivals forum. My likes over there do not translate to this particular forum. Also I do not value a high like percentage from a mostly right wing forum.
Huh?? Sorry, when you see numbers like that it SCREAMS troll and bullshit. Jmo.
 
Worldwide numbers

March 6: 100,000 (months)
March 18: 200,000 (12 days)
March 21: 300,000 (3 days)
March 24: 400,000 (3 days)
March 26: 500,000 (2 days)

Tip of the hat to those listening to scientists, doctors and those politicians whose policies reflect that consensus advice.

Oh, Mississippi's Governor outlawed shelter-in-place orders from MS municipalities. Brilliant leadership. Wonder who he's listening to? Any ideas, usual suspects?
 
Sounds like you’re scared of somebody that actually knows about biology. Why fear me? Research from people like me is what’s going to save your ass in the future. But you want to count likes?

You deserve this version of America.
Nobody deserves this version of America.
 
Only 424 cases, and 8 deaths in SC. So in the extremely unlikely event you get it, there is a 1.8% death rate.
 
please quit cursing. It’s not necessary.

why don’t you debate his points instead of throwing curse words at him?
Sorry, I deleted the curse word post and the other response to the curse word post and the likes dislikes post. It was childish and uncalled for . I apologize to you and Denver and hope you accept it.. I don't agree with hardly anything you say but you are right about that. Sorry to both.
 
For the record, I am a molecular biologist and professor of genetics. I was a researcher at USDA for 4 years before I went into academics. I also advise 30 pre-meds each year. Yet, I am the one out of my depths... you mind telling me what you do sir?

Practicing medicine proves you scored high enough on your Step exam to match in a residency, so it's one way to know how well you did in med school. I realize that MDs do research, but there's less money there and is typically a backup plan for those not matching on match day. This guy appears to be a bit different... I think. No way to tell if he would have matched, but he did go to Harvard Med, meaning he probably destroyed his Step exam. So he probably just wanted to do research and not practice.

A Master's in Health Services is a policy degree, not a science degree. MD is not a science degree, more of a "human mechanic" degree, lots of memorization and reading case studies, not setting up experiments. A BA in Chem at Harvard is no joke, but requires very little biology. For example, viruses aren't necessarily covered with any depth.

The dude is clearly very bright and well published, but nothing on his resume suggests he is an expert on the biology of viruses.



The "science" papers you're referring to are policy papers. The JAMA article you refer to is titled: "Complication Rates on Weekends and Weekdays in U.S. Hospitals." What branch of biology or chemistry does that belong to?

Literally all of the guy's papers look at things like drug prices and patient outcomes. He knows stats, but he does not know the biology of the disease itself. This is policy not actually virology.

As for economics beings a science? No, as you correctly stated, that is a social science. There's a reason Biology majors with low GPAs switch to Psychology and Econ. degrees. Those fields lack depth of understanding.

This pair is ideally suited to analyze the current numbers as reported by hospitals, but they have no clue about the virus itself. Any attempt by these two to speculate about how the disease will manifest is not based on biology, rather based on historical trends. It's a thought provoking opinion piece worth following up on with actual science, but should not be used as evidence of why we need to lift the "shelter in place" orders.

Feel free to fire back a few more WRONG WRONG WRONGs if it makes you feel better. Why are you reading my posts if you've ignored me?

I haven't ignored you.

I am a Ph.D. in Microbiology/Immunology, with graduate research in the chemoprevention of cancer and post-doctoral research at MUSC in cancer immunotherapy using a Lymphoma model. Have served as a professor of microbiology and am now in a regulatory role.

It's your lack of understanding about the interdisciplinary nature of the sciences that interests me, given your background. I suppose it's a just a difference of background that allows me to see how these guys are ideally suited to engage in this kind of work. It does not strike me as odd in the least. I obtained a degree in classical microbiology, doing cancer-based research, with a PI whose graduate work was in physics (studying the sedimentation rates of virus particles). He, by the way, taught courses in cancer genetics and virology (among other things) and was well-schooled in botany as well. By your line of thinking, he had a degree in physics, so he should only ever weigh in on physics-related issues. That's more of a modern view, I suppose. Most people don't come out of grad schools as well-rounded as they used to.

In our research, we collaborated with botanists, zoologists, food scientists and many other disciplines. I guess it just depends on the kind of degree you have. I see the overall body of work of each of these guys, and what they are doing makes perfect sense to me. They are obviously broadly trained and well-versed in numerous fields. One need not have a degree in a particular field to be proficient in their understanding of it. My degree is in classical microbiology, but most of the strongest microbiologists I have worked with have had degrees in chemistry or biochemistry.

I once had the opportunity to meet Bruce Glick. He was studying poultry science when he quite by chance stumbled upon the role of the bursa of Fabricius in antibody production. This was a key step in the discovery of B cells. From poultry science to immunology. The history of science is practically littered with people who made monumental contributions to science outside of their narrow field of training.

Basic principles of virology can be applied to most any virus. There are numerous well-established mathematical models out there for viral spread, and viruses themselves are quite simple structures. An individual certainly does not need to have a Ph.D. in virology or microbiology to understand viruses or viral spread (incidentally, if you have an MD from Stanford or Harvard, you understand viruses). Now, if they were weighing in on how to treat the virus, that would be somewhat of a different story. But the opinions they offered on viral spread are well within their areas of expertise. You don't even necessarily need an MD or a science degree of any kind to do this kind of work.

Consider Dr. Anthony Fauci. His undergraduate degree is in the classics. He then earned an MD but no Ph.D. in any "science" field. By your estimation, he should absolutely not be the director of the NIH or NIAID. Those organizations exist primarily for research purposes and he does not have a research degree. He's a leader in the fields of immunoloy and virology, with no degrees in either field or a Ph.D. of any kind. How does that happen? He leads the largest research organization in the country without having a research degree of his own.

All you've done is look at the titles of these guys' degrees and decreed them unqualified. That's overly simplistic and shallow thinking. If you think they're wrong, or potentially wrong, then you need to be able to offer a critique of what they actually said. It's like talking to college freshman and they're convinced that an opinion they came across is right just b/c the person who penned it had "Ph.D." after his/her name.

Again, I guess this all just stems from a difference in background. I'm very multidisciplinary and have mostly associated with multidisciplinary folks. One question we never ask each other is "what's your Ph.D. in?" Nobody cares about that.
 
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SC scientist predicts explosion in coronavirus cases as SC braces for more patients

Read more here: https://www.thestate.com/news/coronavirus/article241471616.html#storylink=cpy


A nationally-known scientist connected to the University of South Carolina says thousands of new cases of the coronavirus could hit the state by early next month and he’s urging Gov. Henry McMaster to consider further restrictions to prevent people from spreading the virus.

Jim Morris, director emeritus of USC’s Belle W. Baruch Institute for Marine and Coastal Science, says the governor needs to seriously examine imposing a shelter in place order for South Carolina residents.

“The worst is coming, and the sooner we deal with this the sooner we can recover,” Morris said in a letter sent to McMaster on Monday. The letter went on to say that “the number of cases will explode in early April, all at once.’’


Morris, 69, a USC research fellow, is a specialist in using data to make mathematical predictions of future events. Normally, his projections are used to forecast sea level changes, but since early March he has been tracking the number of confirmed coronavirus cases in South Carolina and their rise over time.


 
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Only 424 cases, and 8 deaths in SC. So in the extremely unlikely event you get it, there is a 1.8% death rate.
Possibly that death rate. But that is assuming all 424 cases have recovered. If they are still infected then the outcome is not decided. Also there is the variable of how many actually have it and don't know it. One thing that will affect the death rate is when hospitals are overwhelmed and can not provide the needed care. Then whatever the death rate actually was will rise. That is why they are trying to slow it down.
 
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All you've done is look at the titles of these guys' degrees and decreed them unqualified. That's overly simplistic and shallow thinking. If you think they're wrong, or potentially wrong, then you need to be able to offer a critique of what they actually said. It's like talking to college freshman and they're convinced that an opinion they came across is right just b/c the person who penned it had "Ph.D." after his/her name.

Again, I guess this all just stems from a difference in background. I'm very multidisciplinary and have mostly associated with multidisciplinary folks. One question we never ask each other is "what's your Ph.D. in?" Nobody cares about that.
I decreed them unqualified to predict what the death rate of this virus actually is. I did not say they were unqualified in general. That's an important distinction regarding our discussion. Being multidisciplinary is wonderful, but if you've literally never studied cells or nucleic acids, you can't possibly estimate the mortality rate of this disease. You can use patient data and mortality data to make "at least" type statements, but the real rate would require much more testing and better technology for testing.

It's clear from my previous posts that I looked at their publication records and CVs, not just their degrees. I'm not trying to say these two policy researchers should stay in narrow silos of thought and not weigh in on this mortality rate question at all. In fact, I praised the article as thought provoking. I praised the researchers as being quite bright and accomplished. My criticism is with politicians and news agencies (and you to some degree) using this thoughtful opinion piece as evidence that we should not be sheltering in place or that the problem is less dire than the real scientists lead us to believe.

The headline is literally a question: 'Is the Coronavirus as Deadly as They Say?': Professors claim more data needed to know mortality rate

These guys just want to call into question the 1-2% number, which is definitely a good idea. Trying to use this as ammo for relaxing lockdowns is just political nonsense. You original post says these guys "calculated" the number to be much lower and gave actual numbers, which is what originally set me off. Their calculations are based on a complete lack of reliable biological data at this point. For what it's worth, I believe they are probably close to the real number, but it's a guess. Their argument makes sense, but is pretty speculative for now. It makes for a cool discussion, but can not influence our decisions about lockdowns at this time. Surely you agree with this?

I'd also like to apologize to you for coming at you in a condescending manner. Based on your linking a Washington Examiner article, I assumed you had no clue about science, and I was clearly wrong. My bad on that.
 
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What do you mean we do not know if this will work? Keeping an infected person away from an uninfected person always works. There’s no debating that.

You’re right that we can’t just completely destroy economy at all costs. I don’t think we’ve gotten far enough along to say that that’s what we are doing with these isolation policies.There’s really no arguing though that we should not be trying to slow the spread of this virus at the moment until we can get medical resources at a higher level to deal with the eventual infections.
Wow you make that sound so easy and simple. Are you even thinking critically about this at all? We don't know how many people have it and who they are, and everyone in the world is not staying away from other people. Chances are if everyone in the world jumped in a bubble right now and stayed in it for a month, the hospitals will likely still be overrun because it's too late.
 
Wow you make that sound so easy and simple. Are you even thinking critically about this at all? We don't know how many people have it and who they are, and everyone in the world is not staying away from other people. Chances are if everyone in the world jumped in a bubble right now and stayed in it for a month, the hospitals will likely still be overrun because it's too late.
OK, well if that's your interpretation of the situation, I have nothing more to say.
 
I am looking at numbers updated at noon today from the Georgia Department of Public Health:

1247 cases
394 hospitalized (31.6%)
40 deaths (3.21%)

Georgia is in trouble!
 
The more we've tested, the lower the mortality rate has gone. That was predictable. The mortality rate in Italy is surely much lower than reported as well, as their test is horribly inaccurate.

Not to make light of this thing in anyway but there are a few factors in Italy that might contribute. Italy has one of the oldest populations In the world and one of the highest smoking rates on the planet also . Another factor is a lot of multi generation families live in the same household which would increase exposure. I’m sure these factors contribute somewhat to the high fatality rate
 
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The Washington Examiner is a politically motivated outfit. The researchers wrote an opinion piece in the WSJ, not an actual science article. Neither guy has a science degree. One is an MD and Econ PhD who never practiced medicine. The other is a policy expert with no science papers. The are estimating rates based on reasonable assumptions, but there’s no peer-reviewed data here. I agree, cool read, but these numbers are not reality.

You guys need to see through the politics here. The “Washington Examiner” sounds like unbiased journalism. “Stanford researchers” sounds like science. Keeping deaths rates low in the minds of the average American serves who?

The Scientist who originally predicted over 500,000 deaths in the UK, and 2.2 million in the US has now lowered the prediction to less than 20,000.

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/...tration-looking-into-plummeting-uk-death-toll
 
Just no. Younger people would all be carriers within weeks, some of who would get very sick with potentially permanent damage. This is a bad idea.
Even Fauci himself is now backing off of his original prediction: https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMe2002387

"The overall clinical consequences of Covid-19 may ultimately be more akin to those of a severe seasonal influenza ... or a pandemic influenza [like in 1957 and 1968] rather than a disease similar to SARS or MERS"

https://t.co/086Uepn96s
 
The Scientist who originally predicted over 500,000 deaths in the UK, and 2.2 million in the US has now lowered the prediction to less than 20,000.

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/...tration-looking-into-plummeting-uk-death-toll

Please don’t link this politically motivated website. The guy that owns it is a climate change denier that doesn’t believe homosexuality has a biological basis.

I dearly hope the death toll is low. Perhaps we can get it even lower by riding it out a few weeks.
 
Even Fauci himself is now backing off of his original prediction: https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMe2002387

"The overall clinical consequences of Covid-19 may ultimately be more akin to those of a severe seasonal influenza ... or a pandemic influenza [like in 1957 and 1968] rather than a disease similar to SARS or MERS"

https://t.co/086Uepn96s

The key words “may ultimately be”

I said earlier I believe the death rate to be lower than 1% too, but we don’t know the real infections numbers yet. We need more accurate and widespread testing first. Just look at the video of Italian hospitals if you need evidence of its severity. The speed of transmission is the dangerous factor here, not necessarily the death rate with proper medical care.
 
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