B
Brian_Edwards
Guest
Note from Shoe: I'd like to welcome Brian Edwards back to Gamecock Central. He's written gambling columns for us - on and off - for 10 years.
Brian is a Senior Handicapper at VegasInsider.com, where he's worked since 2000 and spent a decade as Managing Editor. He's also the owner of BrianEdwardsSports.com and the host of the Games Galore podcast. You can check out his content at MajorWager.com and follow him on Twitter at @vegasbedwards.
Please feel free to chat with him, ask questions and leave comments.
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UNLV +21 (-120) at Nevada: As of early Friday morning, most books still had Nevada listed as a 20.5-point home favorite. Let’s buy that half-point to the key number of 21. The Marcus Arroyo Era at UNLV (0-7 straight up, 5-2 against the spread) has started with 13 consecutive losses, but that means nothing for our purposes. The Rebels have been money makers this year with a 5-2 spread record, going 3-1 ATS in four games as double-digit underdogs.
In fact, UNLV hasn’t lost by more than eight points in any of its games against Group of Five foes. The Rebels led outright for most of a 38-30 loss at Fresno St. as 30-point road underdogs back on Sept. 24. Then Arroyo’s bunch lost 24-17 as a 21.5-point road underdog at still-undefeated UTSA. The Bulldogs and Roadrunners have a 14-2 combined record.
UNLV led 24-21 vs. Utah St. in the fourth quarter two weeks ago, only to lose a 28-24 decision as a 7.5-point home underdog. The Rebels covered for a third straight game, though, and were in great position to pick a fourth straight ATS winner last week.
However, UNLV’s 17-3 lead over San Jose St. with less than 90 seconds remaining until halftime was somehow cut to 17-13 by intermission. Then the Spartans scored 14 straight points in the fourth quarter to pull out a 27-20 win as six-point road ‘chalk.’
Nevertheless, we like the Rebels, who have won two of the last four head-to-head meetings against the Wolf Pack. They are catching Nevada in a sandwich spot off a heartbreaking 34-32 loss at Fresno St., and the Wolf Pack have huge league games looming against San Jose St. and undefeated San Diego St.
Florida +14.5 vs. Georgia: The Gators are 2-0-1 ATS in three games as a double-digit underdog during Dan Mullen’s four-tenure. The push came at LSU in 2019 when UF led 28-21 midway through the third quarter as a 14-point road underdog. The Tigers surged ahead 35-28 in the final stanza and intercepted a Kyle Trask third-and-goal pass in the end zone. After LSU went ahead 42-28, the Gators got stuffed on a fourth-and-goal situation at the one-yard line.
The second double-digit ‘dog spot for UF under Mullen came last year vs. Alabama – another eventual national champ like LSU in 2019. The Gators easily covered as 17.5-point ‘dogs in a 52-46 loss to the Crimson Tide in Atlanta. Then in Week 3 last month, Florida took the cash again as a 14-point home ‘dog in a 31-29 loss to ‘Bama.
UGA has been dominant all year long, but it has beaten the Gators by more than 14 points just three times since 1989. The Bulldogs are facing the most prolific offense they’ve seen all season.
UF has two mobile QBs in Emory Jones and Anthony Richardson, and that’ll be key against UGA’s fierce pass rush. The Gators are just 3-4 plays away from being 7-0. This isn’t the mismatch most seem to think it is. UGA likely wins a close one, but the Gators take the cash.
Michigan St. +4 vs. Michigan: I also like a small taste of Sparty on the money line for around a +160 return, but I’ll be playing Michigan St. +4 for a larger amount. I made this game a pick ‘em, so I’ll gladly take the home team catching more than a field goal in what I think is a toss-up game.
In backing Mel Tucker’s squad, we get the points, homefield advantage and the luxury of Sparty getting two weeks to prepare while Michigan did not. I also feel we have the edge at the QB position with Payton Thorne, who has a 15/4 TD-INT ratio.
FSU +10 (-120 buying half-point) at Clemson: I can’t quit fading the Tigers, who are 0-7 ATS and still haven’t scored 20 points in regulation against an FBS foe. FSU has won three games in a row and is off an easy 59-3 home win over UMass. There’s bad blood for this one after the Seminoles forfeited last year’s meeting in Tallahassee merely two hours before kickoff.
FSU RB Jashaun Corbin is enjoying a stellar campaign, rushing for 583 yards and five TDs with a 7.9 yards-per-carry average. Mike Norvell has seen Jordan Travis provide some stability at the QB position, posting a 7/2 TD-INT ratio in the last four games. Travis is also a big-time threat with his legs. I like the healthy underdog.
Texas St. +21.5 at Louisiana: Billy Napier’s team has been playing down to its competition all year. In Week 2, the Ragin’ Cajuns beat Nicholls, an FCS opponent, 27-24 as 26-point home ‘chalk.’ They won by just two at South Alabama (when a Jaguars’ two-point attempt failed late in the fourth quarter) as 12-point road favorites and failed to cover in a 28-20 win at Ga. Southern as 14.5-point road faves. Then last week, Louisiana trailed for a good chunk of the game before edging Arkansas St. 28-27 as an 18.5-point road ‘chalk.’
The Bobcats have lost by double-digit margins just twice this year, and they only lost by nine to Baylor.
I have a small opinion on Penn St. +18.5 at Ohio St. The Nittany Lions are sixth in the nation in scoring ‘D,’ giving up only 14.7 points per game. I like quality teams with good defenses catching big double-digit numbers. The Buckeyes are on fire, but their lopsided victories the past month have come over cupcake squads like Akron, Rutgers, Maryland and Indiana.
Minnesota -7 (-120 buying half-point) at Northwestern: Minnesota (5-2 SU, 4-2-1 ATS) has won four of its last five games and is on a three-game winning streak both SU and ATS. The Gophers have an elite offensive line and are ranked No. 25 nationally in rushing yards. Meanwhile, Northwestern is ranked No. 122 out of 130 FBS teams at defending the run. The Wildcats face a Minnesota defense that’s ranked No. 5 in the country in run defense, No. 16 in total defense and No. 26 in scoring ‘D’ (19.6 PPG).
NFL PLAYS
Giants +10 (-120 buying half-point) at Kansas City: The Giants are 19-4 ATS in their last 23 games as road underdogs. They’re off a 25-3 win over Carolina despite being without WRs Sterling Shepard, Kadarius Toney and Kenny Golladay, in addition to RB Saquon Barkley. All four are ‘questionable’ for MNF at Arrowhead Stadium, but there’s a lot of optimism that Toney and Golladay will be ready.
Kansas City is 0-3 ATS at home and off a 27-3 loss at Tennessee. Patrick Mahomes had to leave the game after taking a big hit to the head. Although most indications are that he’ll play vs. New York, he’s struggling and leads the NFL in interceptions with nine. If the number is +9, that’s fine. But if it’s +9.5, buy the half-point to +10.
Atlanta -3 vs. Carolina: The Panthers have lost four games in a row both SU and ATS. QB Sam Darnold has a 4/7 TD-INT ratio during this slide and he was yanked from last week’s blowout loss in the Meadowlands. Although Atlanta still isn’t using Kyle Pitts nearly enough, he’s put together two huge performances in back-to-back wins. We have a big advantage at the QB position with Matt Ryan over Darnold. Ryan has a 10/1 TD-INT ratio in the Falcons’ last four games (three wins).
**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**
-IF (and only IF) Dak Prescott is upgraded from his ‘questionable’ status (calf strain) and is going to start at Minnesota, then I like the Cowboys (+2) and the ‘over’ (53-54 range). That’s the highest total of the season for Dallas, but it has seen the ‘over’ cash at a 5-1 clip. Those five ‘overs’ have had combined scores of 64, 64, 64, 62 and 60 points.
-IF Texas Tech gets up to +21 (currently +19.5 or +20 early Friday morning) at Oklahoma, I’ll get a little bit of the Red Raiders. The only reason I’m not on them is the coaching change early this week when Matt Wells was fired. OU is 1-6 ATS in seven games as a double-digit favorite vs. FBS competition this year.
-Some Week 10 look-ahead lines from DraftKings include Texas A&M -6 vs. Auburn, Alabama -25 vs. LSU, Fresno St. -3 vs. Boise St., Michigan St. -2.5 at Purdue, Iowa St. -6 vs. Texas, Ole Miss -15.5 vs. Liberty, UNC -4 vs. Wake Forest and Ohio St. -15.5 at Nebraska.
-Auburn has won all four games in College Station since Texas A&M joined the SEC in 2012.
-I have leans for two other generous underdogs but haven’t fired down on them yet. I’m not sure I’ll play either, but I may use them in a longshot parlay. They are ULM +27 at App. St. and Charlotte +18 at Western Ky. The 49ers let me down last week after leading FAU 9-7 at halftime. They lost 38-9 after a deplorable second half, but that’s their only loss of the season by more than 11 points. One year after going winless, ULM is 4-3 under new HC Terry Bowden and new OC Rich Rodriguez. The Warhawks upset Liberty two weeks ago (31-28) as 33-point home underdogs and then beat South Alabama 41-31 last week as 13.5-point home ‘dogs.
Good luck everyone!
Brian is a Senior Handicapper at VegasInsider.com, where he's worked since 2000 and spent a decade as Managing Editor. He's also the owner of BrianEdwardsSports.com and the host of the Games Galore podcast. You can check out his content at MajorWager.com and follow him on Twitter at @vegasbedwards.
Please feel free to chat with him, ask questions and leave comments.
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UNLV +21 (-120) at Nevada: As of early Friday morning, most books still had Nevada listed as a 20.5-point home favorite. Let’s buy that half-point to the key number of 21. The Marcus Arroyo Era at UNLV (0-7 straight up, 5-2 against the spread) has started with 13 consecutive losses, but that means nothing for our purposes. The Rebels have been money makers this year with a 5-2 spread record, going 3-1 ATS in four games as double-digit underdogs.
In fact, UNLV hasn’t lost by more than eight points in any of its games against Group of Five foes. The Rebels led outright for most of a 38-30 loss at Fresno St. as 30-point road underdogs back on Sept. 24. Then Arroyo’s bunch lost 24-17 as a 21.5-point road underdog at still-undefeated UTSA. The Bulldogs and Roadrunners have a 14-2 combined record.
UNLV led 24-21 vs. Utah St. in the fourth quarter two weeks ago, only to lose a 28-24 decision as a 7.5-point home underdog. The Rebels covered for a third straight game, though, and were in great position to pick a fourth straight ATS winner last week.
However, UNLV’s 17-3 lead over San Jose St. with less than 90 seconds remaining until halftime was somehow cut to 17-13 by intermission. Then the Spartans scored 14 straight points in the fourth quarter to pull out a 27-20 win as six-point road ‘chalk.’
Nevertheless, we like the Rebels, who have won two of the last four head-to-head meetings against the Wolf Pack. They are catching Nevada in a sandwich spot off a heartbreaking 34-32 loss at Fresno St., and the Wolf Pack have huge league games looming against San Jose St. and undefeated San Diego St.
Florida +14.5 vs. Georgia: The Gators are 2-0-1 ATS in three games as a double-digit underdog during Dan Mullen’s four-tenure. The push came at LSU in 2019 when UF led 28-21 midway through the third quarter as a 14-point road underdog. The Tigers surged ahead 35-28 in the final stanza and intercepted a Kyle Trask third-and-goal pass in the end zone. After LSU went ahead 42-28, the Gators got stuffed on a fourth-and-goal situation at the one-yard line.
The second double-digit ‘dog spot for UF under Mullen came last year vs. Alabama – another eventual national champ like LSU in 2019. The Gators easily covered as 17.5-point ‘dogs in a 52-46 loss to the Crimson Tide in Atlanta. Then in Week 3 last month, Florida took the cash again as a 14-point home ‘dog in a 31-29 loss to ‘Bama.
UGA has been dominant all year long, but it has beaten the Gators by more than 14 points just three times since 1989. The Bulldogs are facing the most prolific offense they’ve seen all season.
UF has two mobile QBs in Emory Jones and Anthony Richardson, and that’ll be key against UGA’s fierce pass rush. The Gators are just 3-4 plays away from being 7-0. This isn’t the mismatch most seem to think it is. UGA likely wins a close one, but the Gators take the cash.
Michigan St. +4 vs. Michigan: I also like a small taste of Sparty on the money line for around a +160 return, but I’ll be playing Michigan St. +4 for a larger amount. I made this game a pick ‘em, so I’ll gladly take the home team catching more than a field goal in what I think is a toss-up game.
In backing Mel Tucker’s squad, we get the points, homefield advantage and the luxury of Sparty getting two weeks to prepare while Michigan did not. I also feel we have the edge at the QB position with Payton Thorne, who has a 15/4 TD-INT ratio.
FSU +10 (-120 buying half-point) at Clemson: I can’t quit fading the Tigers, who are 0-7 ATS and still haven’t scored 20 points in regulation against an FBS foe. FSU has won three games in a row and is off an easy 59-3 home win over UMass. There’s bad blood for this one after the Seminoles forfeited last year’s meeting in Tallahassee merely two hours before kickoff.
FSU RB Jashaun Corbin is enjoying a stellar campaign, rushing for 583 yards and five TDs with a 7.9 yards-per-carry average. Mike Norvell has seen Jordan Travis provide some stability at the QB position, posting a 7/2 TD-INT ratio in the last four games. Travis is also a big-time threat with his legs. I like the healthy underdog.
Texas St. +21.5 at Louisiana: Billy Napier’s team has been playing down to its competition all year. In Week 2, the Ragin’ Cajuns beat Nicholls, an FCS opponent, 27-24 as 26-point home ‘chalk.’ They won by just two at South Alabama (when a Jaguars’ two-point attempt failed late in the fourth quarter) as 12-point road favorites and failed to cover in a 28-20 win at Ga. Southern as 14.5-point road faves. Then last week, Louisiana trailed for a good chunk of the game before edging Arkansas St. 28-27 as an 18.5-point road ‘chalk.’
The Bobcats have lost by double-digit margins just twice this year, and they only lost by nine to Baylor.
I have a small opinion on Penn St. +18.5 at Ohio St. The Nittany Lions are sixth in the nation in scoring ‘D,’ giving up only 14.7 points per game. I like quality teams with good defenses catching big double-digit numbers. The Buckeyes are on fire, but their lopsided victories the past month have come over cupcake squads like Akron, Rutgers, Maryland and Indiana.
Minnesota -7 (-120 buying half-point) at Northwestern: Minnesota (5-2 SU, 4-2-1 ATS) has won four of its last five games and is on a three-game winning streak both SU and ATS. The Gophers have an elite offensive line and are ranked No. 25 nationally in rushing yards. Meanwhile, Northwestern is ranked No. 122 out of 130 FBS teams at defending the run. The Wildcats face a Minnesota defense that’s ranked No. 5 in the country in run defense, No. 16 in total defense and No. 26 in scoring ‘D’ (19.6 PPG).
NFL PLAYS
Giants +10 (-120 buying half-point) at Kansas City: The Giants are 19-4 ATS in their last 23 games as road underdogs. They’re off a 25-3 win over Carolina despite being without WRs Sterling Shepard, Kadarius Toney and Kenny Golladay, in addition to RB Saquon Barkley. All four are ‘questionable’ for MNF at Arrowhead Stadium, but there’s a lot of optimism that Toney and Golladay will be ready.
Kansas City is 0-3 ATS at home and off a 27-3 loss at Tennessee. Patrick Mahomes had to leave the game after taking a big hit to the head. Although most indications are that he’ll play vs. New York, he’s struggling and leads the NFL in interceptions with nine. If the number is +9, that’s fine. But if it’s +9.5, buy the half-point to +10.
Atlanta -3 vs. Carolina: The Panthers have lost four games in a row both SU and ATS. QB Sam Darnold has a 4/7 TD-INT ratio during this slide and he was yanked from last week’s blowout loss in the Meadowlands. Although Atlanta still isn’t using Kyle Pitts nearly enough, he’s put together two huge performances in back-to-back wins. We have a big advantage at the QB position with Matt Ryan over Darnold. Ryan has a 10/1 TD-INT ratio in the Falcons’ last four games (three wins).
**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**
-IF (and only IF) Dak Prescott is upgraded from his ‘questionable’ status (calf strain) and is going to start at Minnesota, then I like the Cowboys (+2) and the ‘over’ (53-54 range). That’s the highest total of the season for Dallas, but it has seen the ‘over’ cash at a 5-1 clip. Those five ‘overs’ have had combined scores of 64, 64, 64, 62 and 60 points.
-IF Texas Tech gets up to +21 (currently +19.5 or +20 early Friday morning) at Oklahoma, I’ll get a little bit of the Red Raiders. The only reason I’m not on them is the coaching change early this week when Matt Wells was fired. OU is 1-6 ATS in seven games as a double-digit favorite vs. FBS competition this year.
-Some Week 10 look-ahead lines from DraftKings include Texas A&M -6 vs. Auburn, Alabama -25 vs. LSU, Fresno St. -3 vs. Boise St., Michigan St. -2.5 at Purdue, Iowa St. -6 vs. Texas, Ole Miss -15.5 vs. Liberty, UNC -4 vs. Wake Forest and Ohio St. -15.5 at Nebraska.
-Auburn has won all four games in College Station since Texas A&M joined the SEC in 2012.
-I have leans for two other generous underdogs but haven’t fired down on them yet. I’m not sure I’ll play either, but I may use them in a longshot parlay. They are ULM +27 at App. St. and Charlotte +18 at Western Ky. The 49ers let me down last week after leading FAU 9-7 at halftime. They lost 38-9 after a deplorable second half, but that’s their only loss of the season by more than 11 points. One year after going winless, ULM is 4-3 under new HC Terry Bowden and new OC Rich Rodriguez. The Warhawks upset Liberty two weeks ago (31-28) as 33-point home underdogs and then beat South Alabama 41-31 last week as 13.5-point home ‘dogs.
Good luck everyone!
